1、Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress Stephen J. GirskyJanuary 2004DisclosuresAnalyst CertificationAnalyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have no

2、t received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Stephen J. Girsky.Important US Regulartory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co. In

3、corporated (“Morgan Stanley).As of November 28, 2003, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report: Delphi, General Motors, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Johnson Controls, Magna Intl Inc., TBC and Tower Automotive.Wit

4、hin the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of DaimlerChrysler AG, Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Standard Motor Products and Tenneco.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley or an affiliate has received compensation for investment ban

5、king services from Aftermarket Technology, American Axle and Mfg., BorgWarner Inc., DaimlerChrysler AG, Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Standard Motor Products, Superior Industries, Tenneco, Tower Automotive and Visteon Corporation.In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to

6、seek compensation for investment banking services from Aftermarket Technology, American Axle and Mfg., ArvinMeritor, AutoNation, Borg Warner Inc., DaimlerChrysler AG, Dana Corp., Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Genuine Parts Co., Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Johnson Controls, Lear Corp., Lithia Motors, Mag

7、na Intl Inc., Standard Motor Products, Superior Industries, Tenneco, Tower Automotive, United Auto Group and Visteon Corporation.The research analysts, strategist, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of the research report have received compensation based upon various

8、factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and investment banking revenues.Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Aftermarket Technology, Delphi, Dura Automotive, Ford, General Motors, Magna Intl.

9、, TBC and Tower Automotive.Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of December 31, 2003)(Continued)DisclosuresData include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. For disclosure purposes (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we note that Overweight, our most positive stock rating,

10、most closely corresponds to a buy recommendation; Equal-weight and Underweight most closely correspond to neutral and sell recommendations, respectively. However, Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, neutral, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings

11、(see definitions below). An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensati

12、on in the last 12 months. Analyst Stock RatingsOverweight (O or Over) - The stocks total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12-18 months.Equal-weight (E or Equal) - The stocks to

13、tal return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12-18 months.Underweight (U or Under) - The stocks total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analysts i

14、ndustry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.More volatile (V) - We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in the an

15、alysts view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years.Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that securities that we do not currently consider mor

16、e volatile can still perform in that manner.Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is 12 to 18 months. Ratings prior to March 18, 2002: SB=Strong Buy; OP=Outperform; N=Neutral; UP=Underperform. For definitions, please go to morganstanley/companycharts.An

17、alyst Industry ViewsAttractive (A). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.In-Line (I). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be in line

18、 with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.Cautious (C). The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe with caution vs. the relevent broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.Other Important DisclosuresFor a discussion, if applicable, of

19、 the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achieving these targets, please refer to the latest relevant published research on these stocks. Research is available throught your sales representative or on Client Link at moganstanley and

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33、curacy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P.This report or any portion hereof may not be

34、reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley.Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.OverviewAuto Outlook: Same problems; Less of themGlobal Dilemma: Most participants spending for growth yet the industry does not grow.Demand growth

35、is likely to be modest despite economic recovery.Competitive pressures are likely to remain difficult.Weaker dollar could level provide some offset.Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earnings.Big Three opportunity: Actual quality is better than perceived

36、quality.Global Light Vehicle Sales: Slow GrowthCAGR 1.2%Source: LMCJ.D. Power & Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Sales Forecasts: 2003 - 2004Source: Global Insight & Morgan Stanley Research* Note forecasts are derived from Global InsightU.S. Sales16.7mm UnitsFY03E16.8mm UnitsFY04ESource: Autodata & Mor

37、gan Stanley ResearchJapanese SAAR5.6mm UnitsFY03E5.7mm UnitsFY04ESource: Morgan Stanley ResearchWestern European SAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource: Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Excess Capacity at 25%-30%or 20mm unitsSource: Autofacts & Morgan Stanley ResearchCapEx / D&A FY2003E: OEMs Spending for Gr

38、owthSource: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research*Adjusted to fit scaleZero Sum GameGlobal Dilemma: Most participants are spending for growth, yet the industry does not grow.Slow growth & excess capacity suggest deflation / revenue pressures are likely to continue.Not everybody can be a winner.Winn

39、ers will be low cost producers who deliver a good product that consumers are willing to pay for.Modest Demand GrowthDemand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery:Auto sales did not weaken materially in the most recent recession and thus, significant pent-up demand was never created.

40、The number of off-lease vehicles is falling sharply fewer consumers are being forced back to a dealer to buy or lease a new vehicle.Extended financing terms are likely to prolong vehicle turnover.Economic conditions appear mixed.Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line DemandSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchLig

41、ht Vehicle Sales Cycle: Trough to TroughSource: R.L. Polk, Global Insight & Morgan Stanley ResearchWeighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs. Sales1 Year Lead Correlation 77.6%Source: Polk & Morgan Stanley ResearchOff Lease Vehicles Begin to DeclineSource: Manheim & Morgan Stanley ResearchFewer Consumers

42、Being Forced Back to the DealershipsAverage Maturity of Vehicle Loans (months)Source: Federal Reserve Board & Morgan Stanley ResearchTaking Longer to Establish Consumer EquitySource: FRB & Morgan Stanley ResearchEconomic Conditions Better than they were, but still not robustSource: CPI & Morgan Stan

43、ley ResearchPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03Interest RatesConsumer ConfidenceGasoline PricesUsed Car PricesEmploymentAffordability Near 25 Year BestNumber of Weeks of Income to Purchase a VehicleSource: FRB & Morgan Stanley ResearchIntense CompetitionCompetitive pressures are likely to remain difficu

44、lt:Capacity growth to continue in 2004.Pricing is likely to remain difficult although a weak dollar may provide a modest offset.Market share pressures to continue as well.NA Capacity Additions, Despite Flat Sls OutlookSource: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004For

45、dGM(211)(98)80= 100,000 unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030Net Increase Of 853,000 Units or Roughly 5.1% of NA sales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai2356Excess Capacity & More Is On The WayEvery 1% Pt. of Market Share Translates into $1.0bn in Profits853,000 Units of Added Capacity is 5.1

46、% of NA Capacity,or $5bn in Pretax ProfitsNA Pretax ProfitBig ThreeFY03E (in MM)$1,971Source: Morgan Stanley Research EstimatesRevenue Pressures Worst Since 1970sNew Car CPI vs. Domestic Light Vehicle SalesSource: CPI & Morgan Stanley ResearchY/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPISource: CPI & Morgan Sta

47、nley ResearchPrice Reductions Pressure ManufacturersEvery 1% Decline in Prices is Worth$1.0bn at GM$850mm at Ford$550mm at DCXSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchBig Three Market Share Continues to Slide76.0%60.2%61.7%Every 1% Point of Share is Worth Roughly $1bn in ProfitSource: Autodata & Morgan Stanle

48、y ResearchMarket Share Winners / Losers FY03Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchBig Three Share of Sales by Segment: FY-03 vs. FY-02Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchUS Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 - PresentSource: FactSet & Morgan Stanley ResearchJapanese Yen vs. U.S. DollarSource: FactSet

49、 & Morgan Stanley ResearchYen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03Source: Company Data & Morgan Stanley ResearchNote: * Includes Acura, Infiniti, Lexus Weaker Dollar Could Help a LittleSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Operating Margins FY02 Source: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research*Morga

50、n Stanley EstimatesExcluding Pension & OPEB Expense for the Big ThreePorscheNissanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat16.4%10.6% 8.9% 8.4% 8.1% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.7% 1.8% -6.2%Higher Rates Could be a NegativeHigher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lowe

51、r finance company earningsExtended terms suggest longer replacement rates.Every 1% increase in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth $730-750 per vehicle.Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2001 vs. NowSource: FRB & Morgan Stanley ResearchGMAC / FMCC Borrowing CostsSource: FRB & Morgan Stanley ResearchBig 3

52、 Opportunity: Actual Quality is Better than Perceived QualitySource: JD Power, CNW & Morgan Stanley ResearchThe Big Three: Positives & NegativesEach Company Faces Unique Challenges:GM has operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fixed legacy costs.Fords share is likely t

53、o remain under pressure. While earnings and cost cutting have been strong, cash flow needs to catch up.DCX continues to struggle with its product line. Quality issues, both perceived (Chrysler) and actual (Mercedes) continue to linger.Big Three Relative Stock Performance: 2003Source: FactSet & Morga

54、n Stanley ResearchGeneral MotorsGM still appears to have a variable cost advantage vs. F & DCX and a fixed cost disadvantage.GMs aggressive funding of pension and healthcare have helped to narrow the fixed cost disadvantage.Significant new product launches give GM its best chance of gaining share/re

55、ducing incentives in years.GM is going into 2004 with above average inventory.Finance company earnings are likely to decline due to higher interest rates and lower mortgage refinancing activity.GM Market Share35.5%28.0%28.4%Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchU.S. Healthcare & Pension Cost/Uni

56、t FY03Source: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research$1,134$601$1,159$814$889$740$1,899$902$1074$185$88GM Pension Funded Status: 2003 UpdateSource: Company Data & Morgan Stanley ResearchGM Has Built Inventory in 2003Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchFinancial Service Earnings Unlikely to Matc

57、h 2003Source: Company data & Morgan Stanley ResearchGM New / Replacement / Redesigned ProductsSource: Company Data, Wards Automotive & Morgan Stanley ResearchFord Motor CompanyEarnings have exceeded expectations. Now cash flow needs to catch up.With the exception of the F-Series, new products are li

58、mited until year-end, suggesting share pressure is likely to continue.International Operations / Premier Auto Group need to start pulling their weight.Stability in management ranks is important.F Market ShareSource: Autodata & Morgan Stanley Research19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%F vs. GM Cash FlowSource: Company reports & Morgan Stanley ResearchF Auto Pre-Tax Profit, 1999-2004ESource: Company Data & Morgan Stanley ResearchF Geographic Pre-tax Profit: 3Q03 vs. 3Q02Source: Company reports & Morgan Stanley ResearchF New / Replacement / Redesigned ProductsSource: Company Data, Wards Au