Ukraine

Uzbekistan

Vietnam

Kazakhstan

Uruguay

Pakistan

Saudi

Zambia

Kenya

EM

DomRep

Egypt

CostaRica

Nigeria

Serbia

DM

Ghana

SriLanka

8.53.5-1.5-6.5

-11.5

EM,EconomicandPolicyResearch

NicolaieAlexandru-Chidesciuc

(4420)7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

BenRamsey

(1-212)834-4308

benjamin.h.ramsey@J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

Economicoutlooksummary

Quarterlyoutlooksummary

Monetarypolicyforecast

EMEdgeEconomicCalendar

MarketWatch

RegionalCommentary

AsiaEdge

GCC

EuropeEdge

AfricaEdge

LatinAmericaEdge

Appendix

Basicindicators

Keytradepartnersandproducts

FXreservesanddebt

Creditratings

IMFprogramtracker

4

5

5

6

7

8

8

9

11

15

18

22

22

23

24

25

25

GlobalEconomicResearch

17June2022

EMEdgeDataWatch

Strongmedicinewithriskysideeffects

?ThestrongFedmoveisinlinewithsignificantupwardrevisionswe’vemadetoourEdgeCBcalls

?Butasgrowthconsiderationsemerge,ourforecastsmaybesettling

?SomeCBsarealreadydone,witheventualeasingaheadformany,butmindexceptionswherefinancialstabilitymustbeguarded

TheUSFeddeliveredastrong,untilrecentlyunexpected,75bprate

increasethisweek,puttingthefocusgloballysquarelyontherisksoffallout

asUSmonetarypolicytransitionstowardsarestrictivestance.Aswehigh-

lightedthelasttimetheFedaccelerateditspaceinearlyMay,centralbanks

acrossourEdgesetofcountrieshavealreadybeenreacting.Policyrate

movesthatinitiallywereaimedatnormalizingeasypolicyhaveratcheted

uptoconfrontthesecondroundeffectsofsupplychainsexacerbatedbythe

commoditypriceshock.Thesenseofurgencyhasbeenqualifiedtovarying

degreesbycyclicalconditionsemergingoutofthepandemic,butalsoin

somecasesthroughbalanceofpaymentspressures.Inmoreextremecases,

BoPandfinancialstabilityconcernshaveledCBstoconfrontlargecurren-

cyadjustmentsandanegativefeedbackonpricesviaFXpassthrough.

Thisnewweeklyproduct,theEMEdgeDataWatch,providesin-depthcoverageofsome30economiescurrentlynotfollowedinourflagshipGlobalDataWatch.WhiletheEdgeisfarfromunifiedandrepresentscountrieswithwidelyvaryingpercapitaGDPlevels,marketstructure,andavailableeconomicindicators,wehopetoprovidevalueinstandardizingtheirweeklycoverageunderoneroof.

Contents

SincetheMayFOMCmeetingwehavecontinuedtoreviseupourEdge

policyrateforecasts(Figure1).However,theseupwardmovesmaynowbe

runningtheircourse.IncominginflationdataformanyEdgecountriesare

nolongerunidirectional(aswewrotelastweekinMayfoodCPIcomesoff

theboil),whiletighterDMfinancialconditionsarenowaccentuatingrisks

relatedtoglobalgrowth,especiallyviaUSdemand.Tobesure,Chinamay

berecoveringmoresharplythanweexpected.Thus,risksbasedonthe

respectiveorientationofEdgecountryeconomiestowardsthetwoglobal

giantsmaybeshifting(seePickyourpoisonintheglobalslowdown).

Meanwhile,commoditiespricesarelikelytoremainelevated,reinforcing

thetailwindsorheadwindsfacedbyexportersandimporters,respectively.

Alltold,thisisatrickyminefieldtowalkasEdgeCB’sdebatehowmuch

moretopressforward.

Figure1:NominalpolicyrateandJ.P.Morganforecast

%,EMEdgeaverage

10.8

10.3

9.8

9.3

8.8

8.3

7.8

7.3

CurrentMay1stweekEndApril

Current2Q223Q224Q221Q23

Source:CentralBanksandJ.P.Morgan

Figure2:Realex-postandex-antepolicyrate

%,currentexceptnoted

Ex-post10yaverage(ex-post)Ex-ante

Source:CentralBanksandJ.P.Morgan

Seepage26foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

2

2022GDPgrowth

Nigeria

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

NicolaieAlexandru-Chidesciuc(4420)

7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@

BenRamsey(1-212)834-4308

benjamin.h.ramsey@

GlobalEconomicResearch

EMEdgeDataWatch

17June2022

Overall,asweapproachtheendofthesecondquarter,theaveragenominalEdgepolicyratestandsat9.3%,some150bpabovethelevelatthetimeoftheMay4FOMCmeeting,andsome40bpaheadofthelevelwehadexpectedtoprevailbytheendofJune.Onaverage,thereisaparallelshiftupofover60bpinouraveragepolicyrateforecast,withratesstillseenclimbingtodoubledigitsonaverageby3Qandpeakingby4Q(Figure1onthecover).Fewercountriesarewiththeirex-postrealratesinnegativeterritorythantheyweresixweeksago,evenasinflationinoyatermsistrendinghigher,exemplifyingthewoodEdgeCBshavebeenchopping.

Indeed,Figure2illustrateshowex-anterealratesarenowpositiveinthemajorityofEdgeeconomies.Evenso,thismeasureofcredibilityisbeingattainedasCBshavecontin-uedtoraisethepolicyratetomatchoyaheadlineinflationris-es,therebyunderwritingthefutureforecastdisinflation.

WhileonaveragetheEdgecountriesareforecasttohikemore,anumberofcountriesareseenasdonehikingbytheendofthisquarter.Byregion,wecanseethatDomRepandCostaRicainLatinAmericastillhavethemosthikesinstore(we’verevisedforecastsinboththisweek).InAfrica,weseeongoinggradualhikinginEgypt,KenyaandZambia,whileinEuropeEdgeSerbiawillgraduallybeguidingupitslownom-inalpolicyrate(seeMonetarypolicyforecastchartsonpage6formoredetail).Meanwhile,GCCisstillseen—mostly—marchingintunewiththeFed.ButtheremainderoftheEdgeCBsarelargelyexpectedtobedonehikinginthemiddlequartersoftheyear,withmanyseenpoisedtoeaseagainby2023.Tobesure,atsomepointthisreflectsgrowthconcernstrumpinginflationorrelativemonetaryconditions,notwith-standingtheexpectedongoing,fastermarchhigheroftheFedintoearlynextyear.

Wealreadyseesomeoftheseconcerns.MostEdgeecono-mieshavenegativeorbarelypositiveex-postrealrateseventhough2022growthisbroadlyexpectedtosurpass3%(Fig-ure3).Insomecases,likeGhanaandEgypt,realratesappeartoolowrelativetoexpectedGDPgrowth—pointingtocentralbanksfocusedmoreongrowththaninflation.Ontheotherhand,Uzbekistanhastoohighrealratesrelativetoexpectedgrowth.

GCCCBspartiallyfollowedFedhike

GCCcentralbankspartiallyfollowedWednesday’sFedhike.SAMAandCBKdecidednottofollowfullydeliveringhikesfor50bpand25bp,respectively.BahrainandQatarinsteaddeliveredafull75bphike,aswellastheUAEwhichfollowstheFedinterestonreservesbalances(IORB).Omanreporatechangewillbeannouncedatthenextt-billtenderresult.Thehighhydrocarbonpricesandtherelatedstrongermacroposi-tion,allowedSAMAtoreturntothepre-pandemicratediffer-entialversustheFedrate.Kuwaitcentralbankwentevenfur-

therre-establishingadifferentiallastlyseeninJuly2019andnarrowerthantheonebeforethestartofthepandemic.OntheKuwaitiside,themoveappearstobejustifiedbyanon-oileconomylikelytobestillstrugglingtohaveadecisivepick-upandbyapegnotonlytothedollarbuttoabasketofcur-rencies.AsJPMexpectationsareforsmallerFedhikes,GCCcentralbanksshouldtighteninlinewiththeFedgoingfor-ward.However,risksremainforlesstighteningconsideringthatinflationarypressuresarelesspronouncedinthispartoftheworld.

Figure3:Ex-postrealratevs.2022GDPgrowth

%,ex.UkraineandSriLanka

SaudiPakistan

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

Vietnam

Ghana

Kenya

UruguayUzbekistan

Kazakhstan

Egypt

DomRep

Zambia

EM

DM

Serbia

CostaRica

0

-7.5-5.5-3.5-4.5

Ex-postrealrate

LatamEdgeimpactedbyFed(andinflation)

InflationconcernsattheheartofCentralAmericaandtheCaribbeanarenowconverging,resultinginamyriadofpoli-cyactions.Fromamonetarypolicyperspective,however,thechallengesfortheregionareparticularlycomplexgiventheirtighteconomicandfinancialtieswiththeUS,andtheover-archingeffectsfromcommodityimports.Accordingly,weexpectmajorcentralbanksintheregiontoshiftgearsinordertorespondtoinflationchallenges,andtheFedpivot.

WeexpectCostaRicatoremainfirmonitshikingcycleafterthisweek’s150bphike,whichbroughtthepolicyratetoneu-trallevelsat5.5%.TheBCCRhasunderscoreditscommit-mentinbringinginflationtoits3%targetinthemediumtermafterreaching11.1%byyear-end2022accordingtoouresti-mates.TheBankcommittedtosteadyandgradualactionsahead,aloudhawkishundertoneinourview,andwenowexpect375bpsofhikesin2H22and50bpin1Q23,consistentwithaterminalrateof9.75%byMarch-23.IntheDominicanRepublic,wearealsomarkingupthepeakratetothesamelevelasinCostaRica.BCRD’stopconcernhasbeenunyield-ing,highinflationdrivenbydomesticdemand.Theeconomyisrunninghot,underscoringfurtherinflationrisksahead,andthisseemsthedominantdriverofmorehikesahead,notwith-standinganodtoadditionalFedhikes;wearemarkingup50bpourpeakpolicyrateforecastforBCRDto9.75%,whichincludestwo75bphikesinthenexttwomeetingsinsteadofthe50bpwehadassumed.

3

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

NicolaieAlexandru-Chidesciuc(4420)

7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@

BenRamsey(1-212)834-4308

benjamin.h.ramsey@

GlobalEconomicResearch

17June2022

FedmatterslessinAsiaandEuropeEdge

InAsiaEdge,amoreaggressiveFedshouldimpactmonetarypoliciesthroughthechannelofFXstability.ThenotableexceptionofVietnamhighlightsastablecurrency,onthebackofrelativelycalminflationandsturdyexternalaccounts;wedon’texpectimmediatereactionbySBV.ForPakistan,SriLankaandMongolia,currencydepreciationepisodescarrysway,thoughmuchmonetarytighteninghasalreadybeenbroughttobear.ForPakistan,westillretainourviewthattheSBPwillstandpat,atleastintheJulyMPCmeeting,giventhat400bpratehikessinceAprilhaveliftedtheex-anterealpolicyrateto3-4%.AdditionalFedtighteningandcontinuedCPIupsidesurprisesposearisktothisview,butIMFnegoti-ationsareabiggerdriverthanFed.ReneweduncertaintyabouttheEFFprogramextensioncouldforcetheSBPtoraisethepolicyrate.SriLankaisalsodrivenbyIMFnegotiationsandlikelytostayonhold.TheCBSLhasalreadyundertakenoutsizedratehikeof700bpsinAprilasinflationsoaredduetoBoPcrisis.CBSLhadindicatedthatinflationislikelytomoderatelaterintheyeargivenlaggedtransmission.

ThesurprisingresilienceofgrowthintheCISregion(seebelow)hasmonetarypolicyimplications,butCBRactionsandbroaderdevelopmentsinRussiaareabiggerdriverthantheFed.ThisisespeciallytrueforcountrieswithdeeptradeandfinanciallinkswithRussia—Kazakhstan,Belarus,Uzbekistan—andtoalesserextentAzerbaijanandGeorgia.Havingpositiverealrates,Uzbekistanhascutitspolicyrate100bpto16%inthepreviousweek.Kazakhstan’scentralbankcontinuestodisplaydovishleaningsbuthighinflationshouldkeepitonhold.Belaruscentralbankisalsolikelytostayonholdincomingmonths.AzerbaijanandGeorgialike-lybothfacepositiveoutputgaps,buttheexchangeratepeglimitswhatcentralbankneedstodoonrates-theCBRAheldrefinancingrateagainthisweek,despitehigherinflation.Georgiaissomewhatofanoutlier.Givenunderlyinginflationrisesandthatthegrowthisrobust,weforecasta50bphiketo11.5%attheNBGrate-settingmeetingnextweek,whichwouldstillleaverealratesinnegativeterritory.

GrowthupinAzerbaijanandKazakhstan

LookingatactivitydataforAprilandMay,weoverreactedbysharplydowngradingvariousneighboursofRussiaattheonsetofthewar.Datahasbeenstrongerthanexpectedinbothmonthsandthisweekwearerevisingupour2022forecastforAzerbaijan(to5%from3%)andKazakhstan(to3.8%from1%).AzerbaijanshouldbenefitfromeffortstoincreasegasexportstoEuropeinplaceofsomeRussianquantities,whileinKazakhstanaccommodativefiscalpolicylooksmorethansufficienttooffsetthenegativespilloversfromRussia-weforecastthenon-oilfiscaldeficittodeepento9.8%ofGDPin2022,from8.0%in2021.InGeorgia,weawaitMay

databeforemakingrevisions,butseesignificantupsideriskstoourcurrent3.9%growthforecast.SomeupsiderisksarepresentinUzbekistantoo,butourgrowthforecastthereisalreadyelevatedat5.1%.

January-MayGDPinAzerbaijanrose7.2%oya,withparticu-larstrengthinthenon-oileconomy.SimilarlystronggrowthisvisibleinKazakhstanasGDPacceleratedto4.6%oyaoverJanuary-Mayfrom4.4%in1Q22.However,oilgrowthoverthesameperiodhasbeen5.1%oyaandisthemaindriver.InGeorgia,Jan-AprilGDProse10.4%oya,withtheservicessectorproppinguptheeconomyevenwhilstindustryfalteredinApril.Growthinservicesacrossthesethreecountriesislinkedtoapost-Covidreopeningsurge.Eacheconomyappearstohavegrowth-supportivefactors-mentionedabove-thatshouldpartlyoffsettheeffectsofthewar.Solidcreditexpansionintheregionisalsoindicativeofstrongdomesticdemand.InAzerbaijan,loanstohouseholdswereup34.3%oya,andtocorporates11.5%inApril,whilstinGeor-gia,retailloanswereup20.4%andtocorporates13.2%inApril.

Uruguay:ToTtailwindunderpinsgrowth

OurbasecaseisforUruguaytoenjoyasecondconsecutiveyearofabove-potentialGDPgrowth,underpinnedbyhigherexportprices,diminishedrelianceonoilimportsforelectrici-typroduction(practically100%ofelectricitycomesfromrenewablesources),andtheongoingUPM-complexcapexproject.GDPgained2.6%q/qsaarin1Q22,aboveourexpec-tations,leadingustonudgehigherthefull-yearforecastto4.5%asthetighterglobalfinancialconditionsareoffsetbyhigherexportprices.Indeed,theearlyexternalmerchandisetradedatasetforMayshowedaleaphigherinexportsby57.4%oya,aharbingerofastrong2H22.Despitethetermsoftradetailwind,weexpectgrowthdecelerationin2Qand3Q22,asconsumptionshouldsufferfrominflation.Themac-roandmicroagendaisexpectedtoregaintractionin2H22,andencompassestwomainpillarsrelevantfortheeconomy:thesocialsecurityreformandtheFTAnegotiationswithChi-na.Thatsaid,noadvancesintermsoftacklinglabormarketrigiditiesareexpected,whichislikelytokeepupwardpres-sureonnon-tradeableinflationahead,towhichtheCBUislikelytoanswerviaholdingapositiverealratesabove2%.This,togetherwithlowerglobalgrowtharetoweighon2023GDP,sowealsotweaklower2023GDPto2.1%y/y.

TheauthorswishtothankHenryBurdon,oftheEMEAEMEconomicsResearchteam,J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc,andJuanGoldin,oftheLatinAmericaEconomicsResearchteam,J.P.MorganChaseBankSucursalBuenosAires,fortheircontributionstothisreport.

4

3.6i

3.1

4.4

2.5

3.2

6.0

5.2

LatinAmericaEdge

CostaRicaDominicanRepublicEcuadorElSalvadorPanama

Paraguay

Uruguay

8.1

7.6

4.3

3.6

5.3

3.1

3.2

8.2

0.4

4.5h

2.6

3.0

2.6

6.8

8.4

4.5

7.8

9.0

6.0

-3.9

-5.0-2.0-3.5-5.8-6.8-4.0-2.6

-3.0

-2.6

-20

-17

-2.2

-47

-4.0

-30

-2.5

-2.0

-44

-3.0

-20

-2.1

-1.3

-3.6-3.22.8-5.0-2.30.9-1.8

-16

-1.9

-3.7-4.52.6-4.5-

-3.7

-46

3.2-50

-4.8

1.4-0.3

Egypt

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Zambia

EasternEuropeEdge

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Georgia

Kazakhstan

Serbia

Ukraine

Uzbekistan

hh

-6.7h5.0h

-5.5

3.9

3.8h

6.43.0

0.04.3

3.5

3.514.56.1

h

3.0-31.05.1

25.7

26.0

21.7

4.5

8.6

13.3

10.0

25.5

15.2

6.1

7.0

6.3

17.0

17.7

14.5

22.0

11.2

9.4

8.415.0h11.9h

9.515.6i9.3h

8.013.211.7

9.421.018.3

-6.4

-7.0

-7.0

-5.1

-6.0

-4.9h6.9h-3.2h

hhh

h

-7.87.2-4.3

-4.2

-1.3

-3.5-23.8-3.6

-2.4h

-2.0-13.4-3.0

-4.6

-3.3-5.30.911.1

-1.315.22.7-9.8-3.0-4.4-1.3-6.9

2.4i

-5.6

2.2

-6.7

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

NicolaieAlexandru-Chidesciuc(4420)

7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@

BenRamsey(1-212)834-4308

benjamin.h.ramsey@

GlobalEconomicResearch

EMEdgeDataWatch

17June2022

Economicoutlooksummary

RealGDP

Consumerprices

FiscalBalance

Currentaccountbalance

%overayearago

20212022

2023

%overayearago

%ofGDP

%ofGDP

202120222023

202120222023

202120222023

4.06.14.9

3.05.33.5

2.1i

-4.5

-4.5

AfricaEdge

4.94.4

14.3

13.6

11.7

-6.1

-0.2

-7.1

-1.1

-1.2

-5.5

3.8

0.7

3.3

3.6

3.47.4

2.3

6.6

3.8

3.1

4.4

6.0

Angola

6.712.3h6.8h

9.612.56.3

4.19.3h5.3h

10.811.710.0

3.1

-6.8

-8.9-8.5-5.8-7.0

2.8

-7.2

-12.4 -8.3 -7.0-10.4

-3.14.3-1.7-6.2-3.0-4.1-4.0-6.2

2.0

-2.5

14.1

-4.0

-3.3

-5.6

2.4

8.9

1.6i20.3i1.2i-7.5h

5.4

-3.6

-2.7

-5.6

0.8

6.0

1.3i17.3i2.2h-6.2h0.9i-5.0h

4.0

-9.3

12.5

2.91.8

GCC

15.2

12.0

-1.1

3.1

-1.2

12.0

5.8

12.1

7.9

7.4

-6.3i

-4.0

-7.1i

6.9

25.2

7.9

22.2

13.9

13.9

-2.6h

2.2

1.9

3.0

3.32.6

5.2

6.7

16.4

-11.4

-1.6-13.8 -0.8 -4.4-1.0

2.0-1.11.6

-0.7

-

7.01.8

6.08.04.9

5.1

-1.5

9.3

3.9

8.9

5.9

4.9

-5.1h

-3.0

-4.9h

2.6

1.8

1.9

3.0h

1.4

2.0

7.4

11.6

10.2

14.1

3.5

7.4

10.2

4.3

2.2

3.0

8.1

4.1

4.0

7.4

4.7

5.4

2.1

6.2

-3.3

7.1

3.8h

2.3

3.5

2.8

-11.1-0.5-2.54.1-2.30.3

5.1

22.1

6.216.911.110.6

-1.1-3.9-4.2-3.81.9

3.6-0.51.1

-0.7

2.4

2.5

3.4

4.56.6

2.0

4.5

3.8

2.7

5.0h

2.2

3.1

10.3

14.8

11.5

36.5

3.0

8.9

12.0

7.4

6.4

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

SaudiArabia

UAE

-5.8h

-6.6

-5.9h

EMAsiaEdge

-13.7

-4.3h

-4.9

-0.4

4.8

-0.5

1.3

-0.6

-12.4-4.2

-13.0-4.1

-1.1-6.1-3.9

-4.1

-11.0-4.0

Mongolia

Pakistan

SriLanka

Vietnam

-1.1h

-4.8

-3.8

-3.1

-3.9h

-5.7

-4.1

-8.8

EDGEEMcountries

ExInvestmentGrade

GDWEMcountries

GDWDMcountries

Source:GovernmentagenciesandJ.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.Detailsonrequest.Bolddenoteschangesfromlasteditionof

EMEdgeDataWatch,witharrowsshowingthedirectionofchanges.UnderlineindicatesbeginningofJ.P.Morganforecasts.

5

9.25h

9.2512.4912.2519.007.5013.009.0016.5911.5014.002.5025.0016.00

10.2512.9713.0021.008.0013.009.5017.3112.0014.003.2527.0015.50

10.2512.9813.0021.008.0013.0010.0017.2812.0014.003.5027.0015.00

9.7513.1213.2521.008.5013.0010.0014.2912.0012.503.7520.0014.50

11.0014.002.5025.0016.00

LatinAmericaEdge

AfricaEdge

Vietnam

PakistanSriLanka

SaudiArabia9.93.9

2.25h2.253.25h3.75h4.00h

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

NicolaieAlexandru-Chidesciuc(4420)

7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@

BenRamsey(1-212)834-4308

benjamin.h.ramsey@

GlobalEconomicResearch

17June2022

Quarterlyoutlooksummary

RealGDP

%overayearago

1Q22

2Q22

4Q22

1Q23

3Q22

LatinAmericaEdge9.0h6.9h5.1h3.1h3.2i

CostaRica9.6h9.3h6.0h3.5h1.6

DominicanRepublic3.95.7

Uruguay8.1hi1.4i

AfricaEdge3.24.6

Egypt6.2-0.3-

Ghana4.64.8

Kenya7.05.9

Nigeria3.13.5

Zambia6.97.1

EasternEuropeEdge-1.6i-12.5h-9.8h-7.1h-0.8h

Georgia12.5--0.6

Kazakhstan4.4i4.0h3.7h3.4h3.0h

Serbia1.83.4

Ukraine-15.1-43.3-36.1-27.5-9.1

Uzbekistan4.96.3

GCC

Consumerprices

%overayearago

1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23

7.6

4.7

8.98.812.18.816.35.315.714.17.811.59.9

9.0

8.5

9.5

9.1

15.6

13.8

26.8

7.1

17.5

10.2

11.0

13.1h

13.7

9.9

18.4

11.2

9.6

11.3

9.0

8.7

17.0

15.6

29.2

7.9

18.6

9.5

13.3

12.0i

14.1

8.9

24.7

13.5

7.4

9.0

11.2

7.88.317.015.629.27.518.711.314.411.915.06.728.812.2

10.3

13.825.67.817.19.714.210.412.4

Policyrate

%perannum,eop

Current2Q223Q224Q221Q23

h

h

7.28h

5.50

7.25h

8.95h

8.00h

8.75h

9.75h

9.75h

9.75h

6.98

5.50

6.509.2512.1211.2519.007.5013.009.00

9.74h

9.75h

h

16.57

2.22.0

10.4

8.9

40.84.4

11.1

13.0

40.32.8

0.3

-4.65.0

7.9

12.3

18.61.9

0.0

-4.74.7

8.588.968.968.968.66

12.1

-1.316.2

9.4

8.8

31.94.6

0.5

-2.73.3

11.5

12.0

46.32.8

6.3

2.05.8

EMAsiaEdge

12.7513.7513.7513.7513.75

Pakistan

14.5014.5014.5014.5012.00 4.004.004.004.004.00

SriLanka

Vietnam

7.810.3i11.311.2h10.2

EMEdgeTotal4.8h2.3h2.6h1.0h3.7h

9.31h9.5310.13h10.30h9.89h

Source:GovernmentagenciesandJ.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.Detailsonrequest.BolddenoteschangesfromlasteditionofEMEdgeDataWatch,witharrowsshowingthedirectionofchanges.QuarterlyforecastswhereavailableforthesubsetofcountrieswithemergingLCgovtbondmarketsandrelevantCBpolicyrates.

Monetarypolicyforecast

%

12

10

8

6

UruguayDominicanRepublicCostaRica

1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23

4

2

0

4Q21

Source:J.P.Morganforecasts

EuropeEdge

Ukraine Georgia

KazakhstanUzbekistanSerbia(rhs→)

%

27.5

25.0

22.5

20.0

17.5

15.0

12.5

10.0

4Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23

Source:J.P.Morganforecasts

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Egypt

%

Ghana

Kenya

22.5

Nigeria

Zambia

20.0

17.5

15.0

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

4Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23

Source:J.P.Morganforecasts

AsiaEdge

%

17.5

15.0

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

4Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23

Source:J.P.Morganforecasts

6

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

NicolaieAlexandru-Chidesciuc(4420)

7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@

BenRamsey(1-212)834-4308

benjamin.h.ramsey@

GlobalEconomicResearch

EMEdgeDataWatch

17June2022

EMEdgeEconomicCalendar

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

13Jun

Serbia

CPI(12:00pm)May10.4%oya

Uruguay

Industrialproduction(2:00pm)Apr

3.9%oya

14Jun

15Jun

Belarus

Currentaccount1QUS$1248mnNigeria

CPIMay16.7%oya

SaudiArabia

CPI(9:00am)May0.1%m/m;2.2%oya

CostaRica

BCCRratedecisionJun

150bphike:5.5%

16Jun

Kazakhstan

IndustrialoutputMay6.6%oya

Panama

GDP1Q

13.6%oya

17Jun

Duringtheweek:DominicanRepublicCPIMay(13-15Jun)KazakhstanRetailsalesMay(14-16Jun)KenyaCurrentaccount1Q(14-30Jun)QatarCPIMay(14-15Jun)QatarGDP1Q(15-30Jun)

20Jun

Georgia

GDP1Q12.5%oya

Panama

ActivityindexApr1.8%m/m

21Jun

Serbia

CurrentaccountApr

Paraguay

BCPratedecisionJun

50bphike:7.75%

22Jun

SriLanka

GDP1Q-4.6%oya

Georgia

NBGratedecisionMay

50bphike:11.5%

Ghana

GDP1Q6.8%oya

23Jun

Egypt

CBEratedecisionJun100bphiketo:12.25%

24Jun

Paraguay

GDP1Q22-2.7%oya

Duringtheweek:KuwaitCPIMay(20-28Jun)BahrainCPIMay(23-30Jun)

27Jun

28Jun

SaudiArabia

SAMAnetforeignassetsMay

29Jun

Egypt

GDP1Q

Uruguay

NationalUnemploymentrateApr

30Jun

Georgia

Currentaccount1Q

Kenya

CPIMay

Qatar

InternationalreservesMay

Ukraine

CurrentaccountMay

Bahrain

GDP1Q

Zambia

CPIMay

GDP1Q

DominicanRepublic

BCRDratedecisionJun

CostaRica

Currentaccount1Q

ElSalvador

Currentaccount1Q

GDP1Q

ActivityindexApr

SriLanka

CPI(3:00pm)Jun

1Jul

Kazakhstan

CPIJun

Nigeria

PMI(8:45am)May

Duringtheweek:VietnamCPIJun(25-30Jun)VietnamExportsJun(25-30Jun)VietnamIndustrialoutputJun(25-30Jun)KenyaGDP1Q(27-30Jun)KazakhstanGDPfinal1Q(29-1Jul)KazakhstanCurrentaccountfinal1Q(29-30Jun)KenyaCurrentaccount1Q(30-8Jul)EgyptFXreservesJun(2-10Jul)

Timesshownarelocal.Source:PrivateandpublicagenciesandJ.P.Morgan.Furtherdetailsavailableuponrequest.Boldforofficialdata.Underlineforforecasts

7

Spot*3Q224Q221Q232Q23Dev.FromLTavg.

EUR/USD1.071.001.011.02--

ExchangeratevsEuro

RSD

XAF

117.4656

117.75656

117.75656

117.75656

117.75

656

-3.0%

-

ExchangeratevsUS$

UAH

29.3

38.0

39.0

40.0

41.0

0.1%

KZT

435

420

430

440

450

13.7%

XAF

612

656

656

656

656

-

NGN

415

430

440

440

450

-8.4%

EGP

18.7

18.8

18.9

19.0

19.1

16.2%

GHS

8.0

8.00

7.75

7.80

7.85

-25.8%

KES

117

117

118

120

122

42.2%

ZMW

17.0

17.0

17.0

17.0

17.0

23.7%

PKR

201

208

210

213

215

-25.7%

LKR

361

365

368

370

372

11.5%

DOP

54.9

56.0

56.5

57.0

57.0

-12.2%

S