1、第1頁/共49頁 Population Growth 第2頁/共49頁第3頁/共49頁第4頁/共49頁U.S. Bureau of the CensusVitousek (1994)GLOBAL CHANGES Population Nitrogen Fixation Temperature Biodiversity .1. 全球范圍的影響地球系統(tǒng)功能的變化2. 不僅僅只是氣候變化3. 自然和人類的變化同時作用4. 社會經(jīng)濟(jì)和生物物理的 變化同時作用例如:Reid & Miller (1989)第5頁/共49頁China has 22% of the worlds population wit

2、h limited natural resourcesCultivated land: 1/3 of world average levelWater: 1/4 of world average levelForestry: 1/5 of world average levelOil: 1/10 of world average levelNatural Gas: 1/22 of world average level第6頁/共49頁Consumption 8% Oil- of the world 40% Cement- of the world 31% Coal- of the world

3、25% Aluminum- of the world 31% Crude steel of the worldProduction GDP 4%- of the worldConsumption in China第7頁/共49頁第8頁/共49頁Rapid Urbanization Generates Severe Environmental ProblemsEconomic Cost of Air and Water PollutionGDP 5-7% (3 5%)Quality of Life & Environmental Health of460 millions (500 millio

4、ns) population in Urban Environment第9頁/共49頁Environmental Problems InterconnectThrough Interface Matter Exchange bottom mudNutrient SaltCarbon Source Organic MatterHeavy Metalorganic pollutantTerrestrial EcosystemAtmosphere Biosphere ExchangeSO2, NOx, NH3, VOCNH4+, NO3-, SO42-Oxidant (PAN, O3)，partic

5、ulatePAH，PCB，organic pesticideWaterHydrophytic Ecosystem第10頁/共49頁Health Effects of Air Pollution in China(UNDP 2002)Each year: 1.5 million cases of bronchitis, and 23,000 and 13,000 deaths from respiratory and heart diseases.In 2000: 600,000 premature deaths, 5.5 million cases of chronic bronchitis,

6、 and 20 million cases of respiratory illnessChildrens blood-lead levels: up to 80 percent above critical levels7.4 million working days lost to health problems related to air pollution第11頁/共49頁 Health Effects of Water Pollution in China(UNDP 2002)Only 19 percent of the total population has access to

7、 tap water in China. The drinking water of 6 of Chinas 27 largest cities does not meet Chinas national standards. Groundwater does not meet standards in 23 of these cities.In 1993 approximately 8 percent of agricultural areas used unfit water for agricultural purposes, which resulted in an estimated

8、 loss of grain production of 1 million tons.The World Bank (Johnson et al., 1997) has estimated that if wastewater treatment were increased from the current 20% to 50% coverage, total grain production could increase by 24 million tons by 2020.第12頁/共49頁In Zhejiang Province : five to eight times morbi

9、dity from intestinal cancer caused by microcystin toxins in water, than among people who have access to cleaner drinking waterChina now has highest liver cancer death rate in the world. In southern China, an investigation of 560,000 people in 23 villages and towns showed that between 1987 and 1989,

10、cancer mortality was 172 per 100,000There were twice as many cancer patients in the sewage-irrigated area (Wu et al., 1999).第13頁/共49頁第14頁/共49頁第15頁/共49頁第16頁/共49頁第17頁/共49頁第18頁/共49頁Prediction for China Energy Development第19頁/共49頁 Sharp increase of Demand: -energy consumption per capita in 2003 was 1.2

11、tons Standard Coal- 2020 will be 2.0 tons.- 2050 will reach 3.0 tons.Coal as most important Primary Energy:- 2003 67% of total energy consumption- 2050 40% of total energy consumption*Annual production will become stable at around 3 billion t after 2020.Ensuring oil supply is the key to energy secur

12、ity of China:-2003 imported oil 35% of total oil consumption.*domestic oil production stable at around 0.18 billion tons per year-2050 imported oil will reach a height of 78% of total oil consumption.Large scale development of Renewable energy : 2020 renewable energy is expected to amount to 15% 205

13、0 renewable energy is expected to amount to 30%Main features of Energy Development of China in the first half of 21 century:第20頁/共49頁 1. High-efficiency low-pollution coal-fired Power Generation2. Bio-fuel & other liquid fuels for oil replacement 3. Energy saving- alternative fuel and electronic aut

14、omobile4. Electrification rail transportation5. Large scale renewable energy generation6. Fast-growing plants for bio-fuel & H-generation from solar energy Six Strategic Areas of Development:第21頁/共49頁ENERGY EFFICIENCY in China1/3 of US1/9 of Japan第22頁/共49頁第23頁/共49頁 OPPORTUNITIES第24頁/共49頁第25頁/共49頁第26

15、頁/共49頁第27頁/共49頁第28頁/共49頁第29頁/共49頁第30頁/共49頁第31頁/共49頁第32頁/共49頁 Beyond 2020 Vision 50 Years Energy Plan 50 Years Water Plan 50 Years Human Resources Development Plan 50 Years International Strategy (non-traditional) 第33頁/共49頁1st Industrial Revolution I = P x A x T1I= Environmental ImpactP= PopulationA

16、= AffluenceT1 = Current Technology =Extractive Linear Fossil Fuel Driven Abusive Wasteful Focused on Labor Productivity 第34頁/共49頁 P x A T2T2 = Future Technology=reusable, cyclic Solar Energy Hydrogen Economy Biomimetic Technology Efficient Technology etc 2nd Industrial RevolutionI =第35頁/共49頁Systemat

17、ic Changes System ReformSmall and Medium EnterpriseEnvironmental and Intellectual Property ProtectionInnovative Culture Extension Service to Local & Provincial levelsLeadership Development for Changing world CHALLENGES第36頁/共49頁 Take Home Message: 第37頁/共49頁OpportunitiesEnvironmental Crisis第38頁/共49頁第3

18、9頁/共49頁 中國特色、世界影響第40頁/共49頁China Climate Exchange- policy recommendation CCX Chicago Climate Exchange International Standard Validation, Audition, Monitoring capacity building Consulting and training system Technology import and Innovation第41頁/共49頁EconomicEnvironmentEquityEducationExtension Service Station第42頁/共49頁知行合一 天人合一第43頁/共49頁第44頁/共49頁第45頁/共49頁第46頁/共49頁 Proactive vs reactiveSystem Science, System Engineering and System ManagementHuman Resource Development/Team building- Cooperative/competitiveInnovation第47頁/共49頁I. Regiona