新貿易保護措施論文：多邊貿易體制下新貿易保護措施對中國外貿影響研究【中文摘要】1948年關稅及貿易總協定(GATT)的正式簽署標志著多邊貿易體制的建立,在該體制下,成員國可以對各國(地區)貿易政策進行國際協調。其載體從關貿總協定發展到世界貿易組織(WTO),使得各國關稅大幅下降,大大加快了貿易自由化進程。然而自由是相對的,各國為了保護本國產業利益,也從未停止過對貿易保護措施的使用,且伴隨著自由化進程不斷轉變著保護方式。由于多邊貿易體制下對關稅水平的約束,各國貿易保護紛紛轉向以非關稅的形式,如反傾銷、反補貼、綠色壁壘、技術壁壘等措施,這里把不同于關稅形式的保護措施稱為“新貿易保護措施”。中國加入WTO后,對外貿易快速增長,長期的貿易順差使得各國紛紛針對中國出口產品采取新型保護措施。據WTO統計,中國已成為各種新貿易保護措施的“最大受害國”。2008年金融危機爆發,貿易保護再次盛行,我國的出口貿易受到重創。因此,研究新貿易保護措施、分析其對中國外貿的影響對制定合理的貿易政策、改善我國出口現狀具有很大的理論指導及現實意義。木文即是在此背景下進行研究,主要分三個部分進行闡述：第一部分簡單介紹貿易保護理論及新貿易保護措施的形式及特征,尤其是金融危機背景下的新特征。第二部分則對貿易保護的形成機制及其經濟效應進行闡述,主要從供求和博弈角度分析了貿易保護產生機制,并通過大國條件下的一般均衡重點介紹對我國影響較大的反傾銷、技術壁壘、保障措施這三大措施的經濟效應,得出這三種措施對出口國的損失都較大。第三部分引用大量數據,重點介紹入世以來我國前三大主要貿易伙伴歐盟、美國、日本對我國實施的新貿易保護措施的情況,總結這些措施的國別分布及產品類別分布；在此基礎上使用引力模型對我國出口貿易的影響進行定量說明：最后從制度、出口結構以及市場開拓三方面提出中國應對新貿易保護措施的對策和建議。本文在體系構建及資料整理上較為完善,且使用模型進行定量說明有一定的創新性：但本文還存在著不足,如模型并未跳出老框架,且受數據獲得限制并未從量上表示出具體影響程度,因此,就模型本身還有待進一步完善。【英文摘要】It is the official sign of general agreement on tariffs and trade in 1948 that marks the establishment of the multilateral trading system (MTS). In this system, members can make international coordination of trade policies from different countries. Its carrier develops from GATT to WTO, which greatly declines the world tariff level and accelerates the process of trade liberalization. However, its far from real freedom. As to protect their own industrial interests, different countries adopt different trade protection measures. The forms of these measures often turn from tariff to non-tariff protection under the restraint of MTS, such as anti-dumping、countervailing、green barrier、technical barrier.Our foreign trade grows rapidly and makes long-term trade surplus after we become a member of WTO, which makes foreign countries adopt kinds of new protection measures. According to WTO, China has become the biggest victim of new trade protection measures. Chinas export trade had been greatly hit especially after prevailing protectionism caused by 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to make a research on the effects of new trade protection measures to our export trade.In this context, I make analysis of this topic from four angles. First, the paper introduces various theories of trade protection and its new forms and features, especially the features under financial crisis. Second, it describes the formation mechanism of trade protection and its economic effects. The formation mechanism is mainly from the perspective of supply and demand and game theory. The economic effects involve anti-dumping、technical barrier and safeguard measures which do great harm to our exports. Third, by using large amounts of data, the article mainly states the current situation of the measures which are adept by our top three trading partnersEuropean union, United states, Japan. It summarizes the country distribution and product category of measures. Then, the paper makes quantitative explanation by gravity model. Finally, it suggests three methods to deal with the new measures of trade protection from system, export structure and marketing.My paper has done a lot in system construction and material processing, and the using of gravity model is quite innovative. But its still not good enough, the model is based on old framework and cant figure up specific data of the effects to our export trade due to the data limitation. So, the model remains to be further improved.【關鍵詞】新貿易保護措施 出口貿易 引力模型 多邊貿易體制【英文關鍵詞】New measures of trade protection Export trade Gravity model Multilateral trading system【目錄】多邊貿易體制下新貿易保護措施對中國外貿影響研究摘要6-7Abstract7第1章 緒論10-161.1 研究背景及意義10-111.2 國內外現狀研究11-131.3 本文的研究思路與主要內容13-141.4 本文的創新點與不足14-16第2章 貿易保護理論及措施16-262.1 貿易保護理論16-192.2 多邊貿易體制下的新貿易保護措施19-262.2.1 相關概念界定19-202.2.2 新貿易保護措施簡介20-222.2.3 新貿易保護措施發展趨勢22-232.2.4 金融危機下保護措施的新特征23-26第3章 新貿易保護措施的經濟學分析26-333.1 新貿易保護措施的形成機制26-283.1.1 經濟供求分析26-273.1.2 博弈分析:”囚徒困境”27-283.2 各貿易保護措施的經濟效應28-333.2.1 反傾銷措施的經濟效應29-303.2.2 技術性貿易壁壘的經濟效應30-313.2.3 保障措施的經濟效應31-33第4章 新貿易保護措施對中國外貿的影響33-524.1 現狀及原因分析33-434.1.1 主要貿易伙伴的貿易壁壘體系33-384.1.2 我國出口貿易遭遇新貿易保護現狀38-424.1.3 中國外貿頻繁遭遇貿易保護原因42-434.2 新貿易保護措施對外貿影響定量分析43-494.2.1 模型設定43-444.2.2 數據處理44-484.2.3 模型回歸及結果分析48-494.3 新貿易保護措施對出口的影響