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Jefferies
EquityResearch
USA|REITsJune3,2025
?06:45-NAREITKeyThemes
?10:00-IndustrialREITs-TheErasTourNote
?17:33-AMHVirtualNDRTakeaways
?20:05-MACPathForwardUpdate
?22:50-ELSOperatingUpdate
[Video]REITRoundup:KeyThemesforNAREIT
andtheIndustrialREITsEras
InthisREITRoundup,werecappedkeythemesforNAREITandour"TheEras
Tour"note,wherewerunthrough"eras"thatdrovewarehousedemandand
explainwhySTAG,LXP,andEGParebestpositionedforthecontinuationofthe
ManufacturingReinvestmentEra.OurnextwebinarwillbeMonday,June9th,
at9:00AMET.PleaseREGISTERhere.
Slidesfromthewebinarareattachedtothisnote.
VideoTimestamps:
00:00-MarketRecap
03:07-ResearchRecap
04:53-Extel(formerlyII)ResearchPollVote
05:41-UpcomingEvents
06:30-NAREITSchedule
REGISTERHEREforallfuturewebinars.
*Afteryoureceivetheconfirmatione-mail,besuretoclick"AddtoCalendar"tosavethecalendarslotgoingforward.
JonathanPetersen*|EquityAnalyst
(212)284-1705|jpetersen@
LindaTsai*|EquityAnalyst
1(212)778-8011|ltsai@
PeterAbramowitz*|EquityAnalyst
(212)336-7241|pabramowitz@
JoeDickstein*|EquityAnalyst
+1(212)778-8771|jdickstein1@
AhmedMehri*|EquityAssociate
+1(212)778-8456|amehri@
BrendanCutler*|EquityAssociate
+1(332)236-6839|bcutler@
MatthewRoberts*|EquityAssociate
+1(212)778-8524|mroberts1@
KatieElders*|EquityAssociate
+1(917)421-1968|kelders@
JanAygul*|EquityAssociate
+1(917)344-1839|jaygul@
Pleaseseeanalystcertifications,importantdisclosureinformation,andinformationregardingthestatusofnon-USanalystsonpages28-35ofthisreport.
*JefferiesLLC/JefferiesResearchServices,LLC
Jefferies
REITs
EquityResearch
June3,2025
ResearchReferencedontheWebinar:
2QOperatingUpdate:MHRemainsStrong,Marinas/RVsBelowConsensus
PSTLModelUpdate—ImprovedLeaseNegotiationsHelpSupportGrowth
MAC'sPathForwardUpdate-OfftoRunningStart
June2025Pre-NAREITCheatSheet:Big,BeautifulNAREIT
MonthlyInvestmentSales:NoCliffDropPostLiberationDay
IndustrialREITs-TheErasTour
JEFMallTrafficIndex–EasierCompsLiftApril
StorageWeekly:PSARemainsInFront
Pleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages28-35ofthisreport.2
ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.
Jefferies
REITRoundup:2June2025
JUNE2025
USREITTeam
NAME
TITLE
CONTACTINFO
JonPetersen
HeadofUSREITTeam
(212)284-1705
jpetersen@
LindaTsai
SeniorVicePresident
(212)778-8011
ltsai@
PeterAbramowitz
SeniorVicePresident
(212)336-7241
pabramowitz@
JoeDickstein
VicePresident
(212)778-8771
jdickstein1@
AhmedMehri
SeniorAssociate
(212)778-8456
amehri@
BrendanCutler
SeniorAssociate
(332)236-6839
bcutler@
MattRoberts
Associate
(212)778-8524
mroberts1@
KatieElders
Associate
(917)421-1968
kelders@
JanAygul
Associate
(917)344-1839
jaygul@
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COM
Jefferies2
Jefferies3
Source:Jefferies,FactSet
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COM
MarketRecap
WeektoDateReturn
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
2.5%
2.4%
2.0%
1.5%
1.9%
1.9%
1.6%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
23-May26-May27-May28-May29-May30-May
REITs(IYR)S&P500
200bps
6%
4%
2%
0%
183bps
Yield
6.23%150bps
4.39%100bps
50bps
0bps
19-Jan
19-Feb
19-Mar
19-Apr
19-May
19-Jun
19-Jul
19-Aug
19-Sep
19-Oct
19-Nov
19-Dec
19-Jan
19-Feb
19-Mar
19-Apr
19-May
10YrTsyBBBBondYld(10yr)BBBtoTSYSpread
SpreadYeartoDateReturn
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
31-Dec
8-Jan
16-Jan
24-Jan
1-Feb
9-Feb
17-Feb
25-Feb
5-Mar
13-Mar
21-Mar
29-Mar
6-Apr
14-Apr
22-Apr
30-Apr
8-May
16-May
24-May
1.6%
0.5%
REITs(IYR)S&P500
300bps
200bps
100bps
0bps
-100bps
-200bps
-300bps
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
204bps
89bps
-18.4%
45%
30%
15%
0%
-15%
-30%
-45%
ImpledUpside
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
#
BBBBondYield-IYRYield10yrAvgSpreadImpliedUpside/(Downside)
TopPerformers(PastWeek,JEFCoverage)
BottomPerformers(PastWeek,JEFCoverage)
TopPerformers(YTD,JEFCoverage)
BottomPerformers(YTD,JEFCoverage)
Ticker
CompanyName
Wk%Change
Sector
Ticker
CompanyName
Wk%Change
Sector
Ticker
CompanyName
YTD%Change
Sector
Ticker
CompanyName
YTD%Change
Sector
MAC
ESS
PSTL
UDR
STAG
AVB
PLD
LXP
BXP
CWK
MacerichCompany
EssexPropertyTrust,Inc.
PostalRealtyTrust,Inc.ClassAUDR,Inc.
STAGIndustrial,Inc.
AvalonBayCommunities,Inc.Prologis,Inc.
LXPIndustrialTrustBXPInc
Cushman&WakefieldPlc
8.7%
5.4%
5.3%
5.0%
4.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
Malls
Apartments
PostOffice
Apartments
Industrial
Apartments
Industrial
Industrial
Office
CREServices
3
4
5
6
8
9
#
HPP
NHI
ELS
CCI
SBRA
VTR
LTC
ADC
AMH
NSA
HudsonPacificProperties,Inc.
NationalHealthInvestors,Inc.
EquityLifeStyleProperties,Inc.CrownCastleInc.
SabraHealthCareREIT,Inc.Ventas,Inc.
LTCProperties,Inc.
AgreeRealtyCorporation
AmericanHomes4RentClassA
NationalStorageAffiliatesTrust
-1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.5%
0.7%
Office
SkilledNursing
ManufacturedHousing
Towers
SkilledNursing
SeniorHousing
SkilledNursing
NetLeaseRetail
SingleFamilyRental
Self-Storage
AHR
WELL
AMT
SBAC
NTST
CCI
VTR
ADC
PSTL
O
AmericanHealthcareREIT,Inc.WelltowerInc.
AmericanTowerCorporation
SBACommunicationsCorp.ClassANETSTREITCorp.
CrownCastleInc.
Ventas,Inc.
AgreeRealtyCorporation
PostalRealtyTrust,Inc.ClassARealtyIncomeCorporation
22.9%
22.4%
17.0%
13.8%
13.8%
10.6%
9.2%
6.9%
6.1%
6.0%
SeniorHousing
SeniorHousing
Towers
Towers
NetLeaseRetail
Towers
SeniorHousing
NetLeaseRetail
PostOffice
NetLeaseRetail
3
4
5
6
8
9
#
HPP
ARE
DEA
DEI
CWK
KRC
AKR
MAC
NXRT
SAFE
HudsonPacificProperties,Inc.
AlexandriaRealEstateEquities,Inc.
EasterlyGovernmentPropertiesInc
DouglasEmmett,Inc
Cushman&WakefieldPlc
KilroyRealtyCorporation
AcadiaRealtyTrust
MacerichCompany
NexPointResidentialTrust,Inc.SafeholdInc.
-38.6%
-28.0%
-23.5%
-23.3%
-23.3%
-20.4%
-20.3%
-18.8%
-18.6%
-18.5%
Office
OutMedand/orLab
Office
Office
CREServices
Office
ShoppingCtrs
Malls
Apartments
Diversified
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies4
JefferiesResearchRecap
IndustrialREITs-TheErasTour
IndustrialREITsarechannelingtheirinnerTaylorSwift-movingfromoneeratothenext
-asevolvingdemanddriversandpolicyshiftsreshapesupplychains.Trump'ssecondtermshouldactasacontinuingcatalystforthecurrent"ManufacturingReinvestmentEra"(2021–Present),bringingincreasedinvestmenttomanufacturingmarketsfromarenewedfocusonAmericaninnovationandsecurity.WereiterateourbeliefthatSTAG,LXP,andEGParebestpositioned.
Source:Jefferies,CompStak,CompanyMaterialsTitle:CompStakImpliedGAAPLeasingSpreadsSuggestSTAG,LXP&EGPOutperform
JEFMallTrafficIndex-EasierCompsLiftApril
Aprilmallfoottrafficincreased+4.3%Y/Y,bettervsMarch(-0.3%Y/Y),drivenbyaneasycomp.SKT'strafficcontinuestoscreenbest,followedbySPG'sandMAC's.Athletic
apparelimprovedinApril,postingitsfirstmonthofnon-negativeY/Ygrowthinoverayear,whileDepartmentStoreslagged.Restauranttrendsimprovedmodestly.
Source:Jefferies,Placer;TitleFootTrafficbyREIT-2YearCompStack
StorageWeekly:PSARemainsInFront
Y/YSSaskingrentsweredown-1.2%onavg,a20bpsimprovementfromlastweek's-1.4%.OnaY/Ybasis,PSAwasup+7.7%,followedbyEXR(-0.9%),LSI(-2.0%),andCUBE(-9.7%).Thisweek,we’reflaggingcontinuedstrengthinGooglesearchvolumefor
'StorageNearMe',althoughweexpectrecentsoftnessinthehousingmarkettoweighonthatmomentumgoingforward.
Source:Jefferies,Sequentum,BabelStreet;Title:YTDStreetRateGrowth-StorageAverage
June2025Pre-NAREITCheatSheet:Big,BeautifulNAREIT
Thefollowing'cheatsheet'prepsinvestorswithmacroandcompany-specificquestionsforNewYorkNAREIT(June2-5),attheHilton.Wearehostingcompanymeetingsfor
mostofour~70REITstockcoverage.Ifyou'dliketojoinus,pleasereachouttoyourJefferiessalesperson.Ourscheduleisfoundwithinthisnote.
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies5
WeHumblyAskforYourConsideration
TheannualExtel(formerlyII)researchpollisopen,andyour
considerationofourteamisveryimportanttous.Ifourteamhas
beenhelpfultoyouinthepastyear,wewouldappreciateavoteforallourteammembers:
JonathanPetersen(REITsandCommunicationsInfrastructure)
LindaTsai(REITs)ShoppingCenters,Malls,Residential,NetLeasePeterAbramowitz(REITs)Office,Brokers,ManufacturedHousingJoeDickstein(REITs)Healthcare
Ourresearchisdata-driven:
?SelfStorage:Rentwebscrapes,foottraffic,webtraffic(somedataisshareable,justask)
?Warehouse:TheErasTour(deepdiveonmanufacturingdemand),Monthlyrenttracker(cansharesomedata)
?LifeScience:Monthlybiotechfundingtracker
?Healthcare:SeniorHousingConstructionTracker
?Residential:Homeaffordabilitytracker(cansharedata)
?DataCenters:QuarterlyleasingandEarningsTidbits(collabnotew/9JEFanalystsimpactedbyDCdemand)
?Malls:Monthlyfoottraffictrends,RetailREITs-NewShockstoAbsorb
?Office:Quarterlyrenttrackerbasedonrealtransactions(cansharesomedata)
?CREServices:Monthlyinvestmentvolumetrends
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies6
UpcomingEvents
NAREITREITWeek,NYC,June2-5
RealtyIncomeCorp(O)Dinner,NYC,June3
AnalystMarketing,Asia,June9-13
SelfStorageForum,Virtual,June18
AKRNDR,London,Stockholm,June24-26
ONDR,London,June25
SelfStorageAssociationConference,LasVegas,September2-5
Greentext=Jefferies-
hostedcorporateaccess
RegencyCenters(REG)InvestorMeetings,London&Zurich,September23-24
SouthernCaliforniaMulti-PropertyTour,LosAngeles,Sept29-Oct1
JefferiesMiamiRealEstateConference,Miami,November18-19
NAREITREITWorld,Dallas,December8-11
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies7
JefferiesMeetingsatNAREIT-NewYork,June2-5
Date
Time
Company
Ticker
3-Jun
8:00-8:45AMET
EastGroupProperties
EGP
3-Jun
8:00-8:45AMET
RealtyIncome
O
3-Jun
8:00-8:45AMET
NationalHealthInvestorsInc
NHI
3-Jun
9:00-9:45AMET
STAGIndustrialInc.
STAG
3-Jun
9:00-9:45AMET
RymanHospitalityPropertiesInc
RHP
3-Jun
9:00-9:45AMET
AgreeRealtyCorporation
ADC
3-Jun
9:00-9:45AMET
CareTrust
CTRE
3-Jun
10:00-10:45AMET
SabraHealthCareREITInc
SBRA
3-Jun
10:00-10:45AMET
Safehold,Inc.
SAFE
3-Jun
10:00-10:45AMET
ParkHotels&ResortsInc
PK
3-Jun
11:00-11:45AMET
HealthpeakPropertiesInc
DOC
3-Jun
11:00-11:45AMET
NETSTREIT
NTST
3-Jun
11:00-11:45AMET
HostHotels&ResortsInc
HST
3-Jun
12:00-12:45PMET
NNNREITInc.
NNN
3-Jun
1:00-1:45PMET
CubeSmart
CUBE
3-Jun
1:00-1:45PMET
NexPointResidentialTrustInc
NXRT
3-Jun
1:00-1:45PMET
XeniaHotels&ResortsInc
XHR
3-Jun
2:00-2:45PMET
KimcoRealty
KIM
3-Jun
2:00-2:45PMET
LTCProperties
LTC
3-Jun
2:00-2:45PMET
GamingandLeisurePropertiesInc
GLPI
3-Jun
3:00-3:45PMET
Equinix
EQIX
3-Jun
3:00-3:45PMET
EPRProperties
EPR
3-Jun
4:00-4:30PMET
NationalStorageAffiliatesTrust
NSA
3-Jun
4:00-4:30PMET
RegencyCenters
REG
3-Jun
4:00-4:45PMET
VICIPropertiesInc
VICI
3-Jun
5:00-5:45PMET
SunstoneHotelInvestorsInc
SHO
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies8
JefferiesMeetingsatNAREIT-Continued
Date
Time
Company
Ticker
4-Jun
8:00-8:45AMET
AcadiaRealtyTrust
AKR
4-Jun
9:00-9:45AMET
OmegaHeathcare
OHI
4-Jun
11:00-11:45AMET
IndependenceRealtyTrustInc
IRT
4-Jun
12:00-12:45PMET
TerrenoRealtyCorp
TRNO
4-Jun
1:00-1:45PMET
DigitalRealtyTrustInc
DLR
4-Jun
1:00-1:45PMET
FederalRealtyInvestmentTrust
FRT
4-Jun
2:00-2:45PMET
KiteRealtyGroup
KRG
4-Jun
3:00-3:45PMET
PublicStorage
PSA
4-Jun
3:00-3:45PMET
BrixmorPropertyGroupInc
BRX
4-Jun
4:00-4:45PMET
ExtraSpaceStorage
EXR
4-Jun
4:00-4:45PMET
InventrustPropertiesCorp
IVT
5-Jun
9:00-9:45AMET
HealthcareRealty
HR
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies9
NAREITKeyThemes
?Weexpectthatmanagementteamswillexpressdifficultyinmanagingconstantshiftsin
politicalpolicy,whichischangingthemacroeconomicbackdroponaweek-to-weekbasis.Inanenvironmentlikethis,REITsgenerallypullbackondevelopmentandacquisitions.
TrumpPolicyImplications
?Theon-again-off-againpatternoftariffshasbeendisruptivetostabilityinthemarket,how
doesthatimpacttheabilitytorunarealestateportfolio?Howwillpotentialinventorybuildingimpacttherealestatestrategiesofretailersforwarehousesandbrick-and-mortarlocations?
ExternalGrowthOpportunities
?HowhaveinvestmentpipelinestrendedsincetheinitialtariffannouncementinearlyApril?SpringLeasingSeasonUpdates
?Howarecompaniesbalancingrategrowthvs.occupancytodayvsayearago?
SupplyTrends
?InRetail,howisdemandtrendingforbigboxes?
?Withrisingmaterialandlaborcostsoverthepastfewyears,andfurtherpressuredbytariffsandimmigrationpolicy,whatisthegapbetweenmarketrentsandreplacementrents?
IndustrialREITs–TheErasTour
?Weanalyzedthedifferent“Eras”ofIndustrial
warehousingintheUSandbelievewewillcontinuethe“ManufacturingReinvestmentEra”underTrump,whoisleveragingtariffstoon-shoremanufacturingtoboostjobs,security,andinnovation
?Ourrentgrowthandleasingspreadestimatesshowmanufacturingandinlanddistributionmarkets
shouldoutperformvsportmarkets.STAG,LXP&EGParebestpositioned.
?Intheshort-term,uncertaintyaroundpolicyshouldactasacatalystforinventorybuilding,benefitingcoastalindustrials
IndustrialWarehouseErasByTheNumbers
CompStakImpliedGAAPLeasingSpreadsSuggestSTAG,
LXP&EGPOutperform
100.0%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
Jun-16
Mar-17
Dec-17
Sep-18
Jun-19
Mar-20
Dec-20
Sep-21
Jun-22
Mar-23
Dec-23
Sep-24
Jun-25
Mar-26
Dec-26
Sep-27
-20.0%
一STAGLXPEGPPeerAverage
Source:Jefferies,CompStak,CompanyMaterials
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COM
Retailers:InventoriestoSalesRatio(seasonallyadjusted)
Source:Jefferies,U.S.CensusBureau
Jefferies10
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies11
AMHVirtualNDRTakeaways
?WemetwithAMH’sCEO,CFO&COO.Keytakeawaysinclude:1)Newleaserategrowth
acceleratedinMayto+4.3%andisthehighlightoftheoperatingupdate;2)Midwest
marketsareexhibitingstrength,drivenbymigrationandlimitedcompetition;3)AMHis
havingsuccessshiftingleaseexpirations,whichwillbenefitrategrowthlongerterm;4)
Texaspropertytaxreformdecisioniscomingup;and,5)AIisdrivingoperatingefficiencies.
RisingMortgageRatesHaveDrivingaMeaningfulDeclinein
HomeSales
Source:Jefferies,FreddieMac,Zillow
AMHNAREITOperatingUpdate
Source:Jefferies,CompanyFilings
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies12
MAC'sPathForwardUpdate-OfftoRunningStart
?MACisstreamliningitsportfolioto31high-performingClassAmalls(~94.5%occupancy,~$900SPSF),aimingfor$880MinNOIand$1.80FFO/shareby2028.
?Leasingmomentumisstrong,with23of26anchorspacesinLOIand72%ofFY24leasingvolumealreadycompleted,supportinga5.2%NOICAGRweightedtoward2027-28.
?TheSNOpipeline,with~$80Minexecutedleasesand~$50Mpending,underpins$160MinprojectedNOIupliftthrough2028.
?$1.1Bofthe$2Bassetsales/givebacksgoaliscomplete,withtheremaining$900Mexpectedtofundgrowthandreduceleverageto6.25-6.55xnetdebt/EBITDA.
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies13
ELSUpdate–MHStrong,ButRV/MarinasDisappoint
?CoreMHbaserentalincomeQTDthroughAprilcameof+5.5%istowardthehighendofguidance(+5.0-5.6%),and30/10bpsaheadofJEF/consensus2Qestimates.
?CoreMHoccupancytickeddown10bpsQ/Qto94.3%,belowourestimateof94.5%andconsensus94.4%,suggestingthebeatoncoreMHrentalincomeisdrivenbybetter-than-expectedpricingpower.
?CoreRV&Marinasbaserentalincomewas+2.0%throughApril,below2Qguidanceof+2.2-2.8%andJEF/consensus2Qestimatesof+2.4%/+2.5%.
?TransientrevenuesthroughthekeyMDWweekendwere-7.5%Y/Yvs.JEF/consensus2Qestimatesof-5.0%/-2.2%,likelyunderscoringincreasedconsumercautionamidmacro
uncertainty.
MH&RVSegment
QTD
Guide
JEF
Consensus
CoreMHBaseRentalIncome
5.5%*
5.0%to5.6%
5.2%
5.4%
CoreMHOccupancy
94.3%*
NA
94.5%
94.4%
CoreRV&MarinaBaseRentalIncome
2.0%*
2.2%to2.8%
2.4%
2.5%
CoreRVTransientRentalIncome
-7.5%**
NA
-5.0%
-2.2%
*throughAprilQTD
**throughMayQTD
Source:Jefferies,CompanyMaterials
IsTheInterestRateSpikeCycleOver?
REITsTendToUnderperformtheBroaderMarketWhenRatesAreRising…
?REITsunderperformbyabout960bpsonaverageduringtheratespike.
?FromSeptember16th,2024toJanuary13th,2025REITsunderperformedby1,400bps
ButTendToBounceBackAfterwards:
?Onceratesstabilize,REITsalmostalwaysoutperform,withaverageoutperformanceof~660bpsinthe120daysfollowingstabilization.
REITsUnderperformDuringRisingRates,ButOutperformOnceRatesStabilize
RMZOutperformanceinDaysAfter
RatesStabilize
Start
End
Durationin
Days
Beginning10
Yr
Ending10
Yr
Change
RMZ
SPX
Outperformance/
(Underperformance)
AvgCPI
Inflation
30days
60days
120days
1/18/1996
6/11/1996
145
5.53%
6.99%
146bps
5.0%
10.3%
-5.3%
2.77%
3.98%
4.29%
4.83%
10/5/1998
1/12/2000
464
4.16%
6.72%
256bps
1.8%
44.9%
-43.1%
2.00%
0.54%
-2.19%
10.79%
10/31/2001
3/14/2002
134
4.30%
5.40%
110bps
15.7%
8.8%
6.9%
1.62%
10.77%
7.56%
18.34%
6/10/2003
8/13/2003
64
3.20%
4.58%
138bps
2.5%
-0.1%
2.6%
2.10%
0.30%
3.97%
5.10%
3/8/2004
5/19/2004
72
3.78%
4.79%
101bps
-13.9%
-5.1%
-8.8%
1.86%
5.53%
13.34%
18.24%
6/1/2005
6/22/2006
386
3.91%
5.21%
130bps
13.7%
3.6%
10.1%
3.58%
4.13%
4.17%
7.41%
12/18/2008
6/8/2009
172
2.08%
3.87%
179bps
-1.8%
6.1%
-7.8%
-0.13%
-7.54%
11.13%
7.07%
9/27/2010
2/8/2011
134
2.51%
3.72%
121bps
10.6%
16.0%
-5.4%
1.26%
0.89%
-0.84%
7.05%
4/5/2013
9/5/2013
153
1.71%
3.00%
129bps
-11.9%
6.6%
-18.4%
1.53%
1.66%
2.57%
-7.88%
1/30/2015
6/26/2015
147
1.65%
2.47%
83bps
-12.2%
5.3%
-17.6%
-0.09%
3.75%
6.28%
7.39%
6/27/2016
12/15/2016
171
1.44%
2.61%
117bps
-5.3%
13.1%
-18.4%
1.24%
2.58%
1.58%
1.99%
12/15/2017
10/5/2018
294
2.35%
3.23%
88bps
-5.4%
7.8%
-13.2%
2.49%
4.93%
9.81%
11.63%
11/4/2020
3/31/2021
147
0.77%
1.74%
97bps
16.9%
15.4%
1.5%
1.37%
2.66%
2.93%
4.89%
3/1/2022
10/21/2022
234
1.71%
4.22%
251bps
-22.7%
-12.9%
-9.8%
8.42%
2.92%
2.88%
5.68%
4/7/2023
10/19/2023
195
3.29%
4.99%
170bps
-8.8%
4.2%
-13.0%
3.89%
0.22%
6.90%
-2.25%
9/16/2024
1/13/2025
119
3.62%
4.79%
117bps
-10.4%
3.6%
-14.0%
2.62%
2.3%
0.82%
5.15%
6.05%
Averages
189
140bps
-1.6%
8.0%
-9.6%
2.4%
5.0%
6.6%
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMSource:Jefferies,FactSet
Jefferies14
JUNE2025|JONPETERSEN,EQUITYANALYST,(212)284-1705,JPETERSEN@JEFFERIES.COMJefferies15
JefferiesREITResearchisGlobal
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India
?AbhinavSinha(TeamLeader)
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USREITTeam’sGreatestHits
DataCenters-ThisDataCenterAccelerationIsNotArtificial.WeaddedDLRtoJefferies’FranchisePickslistwithanin-depthreportonthematerialshiftinDCdemand(April2023).
1Q25DataCenterLeasing&EarningsSeasonTidbitsAcrosstheMarket.QuarterlyupdateonleasingvolumethatwewriteinconjunctionwithotherJefferiesAnalysts(May2025).
EnclosedMalls-JEFMallTrafficIndex-MarchBounceBack.Monthlyin-depthlookatfoottrafficofmallsandoutlets(April2025).
Industrial-WarehouseRentTracker(April2025):SoCalSlumpContinues.Aforward-lookingviewintoleasingspreadsfromadatabaseofactualleasecomps-provenhighcorrelationtoactualresults(April2025).
LifeScience-LifeScienceMonthly:FOWeaknessWeighsonAprilFunding(-59%Y/Y).Ourbiotechfundingdataispredictiveoffuturelifescienceleasingvolumes(May2025).
Multifamily-ResiChartRefresh-ToughertoSMILE,Not2025Yet.Indepthlookatthesector(October2023).
Office-OfficeREITs:StillLookingtoGainShareInaChallenged,ButImprovingMarket.Alookintotheshiftingfundamentalsinthisoftendebatedsector(March2025).
OutpatientMedical-1Q25RevistaData:SteadyinaSeaofUncertainty(April2025).
Self-Storage-StorageWeekly:1Q25EarningsGamePlan+OneLastAnalysisonLSI.ThemostcomprehensiveweeklyreportontheSelf-Storageindustry(April2025).
SeniorHousing-SeniorHousingConstructionTracker:SilverTsunamiRequiresMoreSupply.(October2024).
ShoppingCenters-ShoppingCenterREITs-UpdatingFY25EstimatesforHigherBadDebt.(February2025).
SingleFamilyRental-GainingShareintheHousingSqueeze-->InitiatingBuysonAMH&INVH.(April2022).
SkilledNursing-CMSMinimumStaffingRuleDrivesa-0.34xAverageRentCoverageContraction.AlookintonewstaffingmandatesandcomplianceofoperatorsofSNFportfolios(July2024).
CREServices-MonthlyInvestmentSales:MarchVolumeResilientAheadofLiberationDay.Monthlyupdateonthecapitalmarketsenvironmentforbrokers(April2025).
ManufacturedHousing-InitiatingonManufacturedHousing:DemographicTailwindsSupportGrowth(April2025).
Jefferies
16
SectorViews
DataCenters-Positive:DCdemandisstrong,drivenbyAI,withnetabsorptionintopNorthAmericanmarketsabove4.5GWin4Q2024(TTM).Digestionperiodsaretemporary,andwebelieveinthelong-termseculardemandtailwinds.
CREServices-Positive:WemaintainaPositiveoutlookonCREServicesfor'25,withcontinueddouble-digitgrowthinresilientrevenuebusinessesforJLL/CBRE,asolidleasingrecovery,andupsideskewtoestimatesincapitalmarketsaswethinkfearsofreinflation/higherratesareoverdone.WemaintainBuyonJLLasourtoppickinthespace.
Industrial-Positive:Lowersupplyishelpful,buttariffsarearisktoportmarkets.Onshoringandnearshoringtrendsareanticipatedtoaccelerate,boostingdemandinsecondaryandmanufacturingmarkets.
Malls-Positive:WeexpectthepositivemomentumintheMallsspacetocontinuein'25,buoyedbyaresilienthigherincomeconsumerandlimitedsupplyofclassAalternatives.MallstradeatasteepdiscounttotheREITaverage(-19%discount).
NetLease-Positive:Withinterestratesstillmovinglower(albeitataslowerpace),caprateexpansionhasbroadlyaccelerated,improvingWACCsandthegrowthoutlookforNetLease.
Self-Storage-Positive:ECRIsremainresilient(orimprovinginPSA’scase),offsettingpersistentlyweakmove-inrates;however,webelievethatanyrecoveryinthehousingmarketin2025willbeatailwindforstoragedemand.
ShoppingCenters-Neutral:Withretailsupplyverytight,KPIsremainresilient,&guidancemostlyreiteratedacrosstheboardw
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