IntegratingOffshoreWindIntoCompetitiveRenewableEnergyZones(CREZ)forthePhilippinesPrateekJoshi,Sophie-MinThomson,andAmbarishNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory

PrateekJoshiSophie?MinThomsonAmbarish20251 IntegratingOffshoreWindIntoCompetitiveRenewableEnergyZones(CREZ)forthePhilippines

源區（CREZ）ThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat/publicationsTheauthorsthanktheU.S.DepartmentofStateandZacharyHauserattheU.S.DepartmentofEnergyforsupportingthiswork,alongwithstaffatthePhilippinesDepartmentofEnergyfortheirengagementandfeedbackthroughout.Furthermore,theauthorsthankLyanVillacortaandLilyGutierrezattheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentPhilippinesmissionforassistancewithprojectscopingandstakeholdercoordination,aswellasRMIwiththeirtechnicalfeedbackonoffshorewindinthePhilippines.Theauthorsalsowishtothankseveralcolleaguesfortheirpeerreviews,detailedcomments,insights,andcontributionstothisreport:BarbaraO’Neill,DerinaMan,andAdamWarren(NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,NREL),alongwithIsabelMcCanandLizBreazeale(NREL)foreditorialassistance.Anyerrorsandomissionsarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthors.

RMI同行評審、詳細評論、見解和對本報告的貢獻：BarbaraO’NeillDerinaManAdamWarren（國家可再生能源實驗室，NREL），IsabelMcCanLizBreazeale（NREL）在編輯方面的協助。任何錯誤和遺漏均由作者負責。Listof competitiverenewableenergy levelizedcostof levelizedcostof NationalGridCorporationofthe NationalRenewableEnergy offshore PhilippinesDepartmentof RenewableEnergyPotential RenewableEnergy U.S. variablerenewable

CREZLCOEMWMWhNGCP菲律賓國家NRELOSW海上風電ExecutiveThePhilippinesisaimingtobuildadomesticoffshorewindindustryandhasincorporatedoffshorewindintoseveralpolicyanddeploymentinitiatives.Inparallel,thePhilippineshasalsobeenaleaderinincorporatingrenewableenergyzones(REZs)intopowersectordevelopmentandtransmissionplans.Theobjectiveofthisstudy,conductedbytheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’sNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)inpartnershipwiththePhilippinesDepartmentofEnergy,istoincorporateoffshorewindresourcesintothePhilippines’alreadyestablishedcompetitiverenewableenergyzones(CREZs)tosupportnationaltransmissionplanning,therebyconnectingthesetwopreviouslydisparateworkstreamsandimplementingakeyrecommendationfromtheWorldBank’soffshorewindroadmapforthecountry(WorldBank2022).AsummaryofprioroffshorewindandCREZ-relatedeffortsinthePhilippines,culminatinginthisanalysis,isshowninFigureES-1.FigureES-1.PriorREZsandoffshorewindworkinthePhilippinesleadingtothisThisprojectfocusesonsevenoffshorewinddevelopmentzones(A,B,C,D,E,F,andG)identifiedinpriorstudies,alongwith10outofthe25onshoreCREZs(L2,L3,L6,L10,Mr1,Mr2,N1,N2,Py1,andPy2).FigureES-2showstheseoffshorewindzonesandlinkedonshoreCREZs.Dataontheoffshorewindresourceandoffshorewindzones,alongwithtechnologyperformanceandcostassumptions,wasusedinNREL’sRenewableEnergyPotential(reV)model(FigureES-3)tocalculatetechnicalpotentialdataforeachoffshorewindzone(i.e.,capacity,capacityfactors,levelizedcostofelectricity[LCOE],etc.).

菲律賓在將可再生能源區（REZs）納入電力部門發展與輸電計劃方面也處于領先地位。由美國能源部國家可再生能源實驗室（NREL）與菲律賓能源部合作開展的本研究的目的是將近海風資源納入菲律賓已建立的競爭性可再生能源區（CREZs），以支持國家輸電規劃，從而連接這兩個先前獨立的業務流程，并實施世界銀行（2022年）為該國近海風電路線圖提出的重點建議（2022年）CREZ相關ES?1圖ES?1REZs本項目重點關注先前研究中確定的七個近海風電開發區（ABCDEFG），25CREZs10（L2L3L6L10Mr1Mr2N2Py1Py2）ES?2CREZs。NRELreV）模型（ES?3），以計算每個近海風電區的技術潛力數據（即容量、容量LCOE）。/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat FigureES-2.OnshoreCREZs(L2–Py2)linkedtooffshorewinddevelopmentzonesNote:OnshoreCREZcentroidsareshownwitha50-kmradius

FigureES-2.OnshoreCREZs(L2?Py2)linkedtooffshorewinddevelopmentzonesNote:OnshoreCREZcentroidsareshownwitha50-kmradius/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat FigureES-3.SchematicofmodelingmethodologyusedinthisoffshorewindresourceassessmentforthePhilippinesFutureoffshorewinddevelopmentandgridinterconnectioninthePhilippineswillimpactthetransmissionsystemandselectsubstations.TheWorldBankroadmap(WorldBank2022)includesaLow-GrowthandaHigh-Growthscenarioforoffshorewindinthecountry,whilethePhilippineEnergyPlan2023?2050(PDOE2023)includesaReferencescenarioandtwoCleanEnergyscenarios(TableES-1).TableES-1.AnticipatedOffshoreWindDeploymentinthePhilippinesUnderDifferentFutureOffshoreWindCapacityWorldPhilippineEnergyCleanEnergyScenarioCleanEnergyScenarioItisimportanttounderstandhowthesefuturescenariosforoffshorewinddeploymentcouldimpactinfrastructuredevelopmentinthesevenoffshorewindzonesandtransmissioninterconnectionforthe10linkedonshoreCREZsthatareanalyzedinthisstudy.Toassesstheleast-costdevelopmentofoffshorewindinthePhilippines,thesupplycurveandtotalLCOEdataforeachoffshorewindzoneisdisaggregatedbybothlinkedonshoreCREZandturbinetype(i.e.,fixed-bottomandfloatingturbines).AsummaryoftheseresultsisshowninFigureES-4.TheseestimatedLCOEvaluesdonotaccountforthecostofpotentialportorgridinfrastructureupgradesthatcouldbenecessarytosupportoffshorewinddeploymentintheoffshorewindzonesandCREZs.Thus,offshorewindzonesandCREZswithhigherLCOEscouldbemoreviablefornear-termdevelopmentdependingonthestateofthenearbyportandgridinfrastructure(i.e.,transmissionlinevoltage,substationcapacity,etc.).

FigureES-3.SchematicofmodelingmethodologyusedinthisoffshorewindresourceassessmentforthePhilippines（2022）為該國的海上風電制定了低增長和高增長兩種情景，而菲律賓能2023?2050（PDOE2023）則包括基準情景和兩個清潔能源情景（ES?1）。CREZ的輸電互聯非常重要。為了評估菲律賓海上風電的最小成本開發，每個海上風電LCOECREZ和渦輪類型（即固定底座和浮式渦輪）進ES?4LCOECREZ的潛在港口或電網基礎設施升級的成本。因此，LCOECREZ可能更適合近期開發，具體/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat FigureES-4.Technicalpotentialcapacity(MW)andaveragetotalLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzoneandlinkedonshoreCREZ,disaggregatedbyturbinetypeKeyTakeaway#1:Offshorewindhasamorestablegenerationprofilecomparedtoonshorewindandsolarphotovoltaics,supportingfurthergridintegrationofvariablerenewableenergyintheForeachoffshorewindzone,theaveragedailygenerationprofileforoffshorewindisrelativelyflat,despitedifferencesincapacityfactors(i.e.,theaveragecapacityfactorrangesfromahighofapproximately35%inOffshoreWindZoneAtoalowofapproximately21%inOffshoreWindZoneB)andseasonalgeneration(i.e.,lowercapacityfactorsoccurinthespringandsummermonths,whilehighercapacityfactorsoccurintheautumnandwintermonths).Offshorewind’srelativelystablegenerationprofilecontrastswiththegenerationprofilesofsolarphotovoltaics(PV)andonshorewindforthe10impactedonshoreCREZs.SolarPVpeaksinthemiddleoftheday,onshorewindpeaksintheevening,andoffshorewindiscomparativelyflatthroughouttheday.Overall,theadditionofoffshorewindreducesthevariabilityoftotalvariablerenewableenergy(VRE)generation,andthis“smoothing”oftheaggregateVREgenerationprofileisbeneficialforgridoperatorsandsupportsthegridintegrationofthesecleanresources.

1：與陸上風電和太陽能光伏相比，近海風電具有更穩定的發電曲線，對于每個海上風電區，海上風電的平均日發電曲線相對平坦，盡管其容量因子（即，平A35%B21%）和季節性發電（即，春季和夏季月份的容量因子較低，而秋季和冬季月份的容量因子較高）存在差10（CREZ的太陽能光伏（PV）和陸地風電的發電曲線形成對比。太陽能光伏在白天中間達到峰值，入降低了總可變可再生能源（VRE）VREKeyTakeaway#2:TheoffshorewindresourceinthePhilippinesisgeographicallydiverse,andtheoffshorewindzonesstudiedareprimarilysuitableforfloatingturbines.Acrossthesevenoffshorewindzonesassessedinthisstudy,mostofthetechnicalpotentialcapacityconsistsoffloatingturbines(almost40GW,approximately93%)comparedtofixed-bottomturbines(almost3GW,approximately7%).OffshoreWindZoneDhasthehighesttechnicalpotentialcapacity(approximately27,220MW),whileOffshoreWindZoneEhasthelowesttechnicalpotentialcapacity(approximately573MW).TheaveragetotalLCOEvaluesrangefromalowofapproximately$69/MWh(fixed-bottomturbinesinOffshoreWindZoneD)toahighofapproximately$165/MWh(floatingturbinesinOffshoreWindZoneB),showninTableES-2.ThesetotalLCOEvaluesaccountforthecostoftransmissiontotheonshoreCREZ,butnotanypotentialportorgridupgrades,andarebasedon2022costestimates.TableES-2.AverageTotalLCOEandTechnicalPotentialCapacityforEachOffshoreWindZone,DisaggregatedbyTurbineType

KeyTakeaway#2:TheoffshorewindresourceinthePhilippinesisgeographicallydiverse,andtheoffshorewindzonesstudiedareprimarilysuitableforfloatingturbines.在本研究中評估的七個海上風電區中，大部分技術潛在容量由浮式風機組成（4093），而固定底座風機（37）D最高的技術潛在容量（27,220），E（573）LCOE69（D的固定LCOECREZ的成本，但未考慮任何潛在的港口或電網升級,，2022 OffshoreWind

AverageTotalLCOE

TechnicalPotentialCapacity(MW)

元/兆瓦時

OffshoreOffshoreWindZoneDOffshoreWindZoneFOffshoreWindZoneF

區域區域

OffshoreWindZoneEOffshoreWindZoneE

區域區域

OffshoreWindZoneBOffshoreWindZoneB

BB

OffshoreWindZoneDOffshoreWindZoneD

OffshoreWindZoneFOffshoreWindZoneF

ZoneZone

OffshoreWindZoneG

OffshoreWindZoneG

OffshoreWindZoneBOffshoreWindZoneBOffshoreWindZoneBKeyTakeaway#3:SelectonshoreCREZswillbeimpactedbyoffshorewind,providingopportunitiesforstrategictransmissioninvestmentsinthePhilippines.Thesevenoffshorewindzonesareanticipatedtoimpact10onshoreCREZsinthePhilippines.Usingleast-costcapacityexpansionprinciples,thepotentialimpactoneachCREZvariesbasedonscenariosforfutureoffshorewinddeployment.Forinstance,theCREZwiththehighestoffshorewindcapacityin2030underthedifferentscenariosisL6,rangingfromalowofapproximately461MWintheWorldBankLow-Growthscenariotoahighofapproximately2,699MWinthePhilippineEnergyPlanCleanEnergyScenario2.Theresultsforallyears,scenarios,andCREZsareshowninFigureES-5.ThePhilippines’stakeholderscanusethisinformationtoplanandprioritizestrategictransmissioninvestments,inlinewiththeirexistingCREZandtransmissionplanningprocesses.FigureES-5.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZforthedifferentgrowth

3CREZCREZ。根據未來海上風電部署的不同情CREZ的潛在影響有所不同。例如，在不同情景下，2030CREZL646122,699CREZ的結果 TableofExecutive KeyTakeaway#1:Offshorewindhasamorestablegenerationprofilecomparedtoonshorewindandsolarphotovoltaics,supportingfurthergridintegrationofvariablerenewableenergyinthe KeyTakeaway#2:TheoffshorewindresourceinthePhilippinesisgeographicallydiverse,andtheoffshorewindzonesstudiedareprimarilysuitableforfloating KeyTakeaway#3:SelectonshoreCREZswillbeimpactedbyoffshorewind,providingopportunitiesforstrategictransmissioninvestmentsinthe RenewableEnergy RelevantBackground ProjectMotivationand OffshoreWindResource

TableofExecutive Ke1生能源的進一步電網集成 要點#K#3：CREZ引言.RenewableEnergy RelevantBackground ProjectMotivationand OffshoreWindResource Dataand CapacityFactor SupplyCurve OffshoreWindTransmission CREZ PotentialInfrastructure

方法 CREZ

........... Key KeyTakeaway#1:OffshorewindhasamorestablegenerationprofilecomparedtoonshorewindandsolarPV,supportingfurthergridintegrationofVREinthe KeyTakeaway#2:TheoffshorewindresourceinthePhilippinesisgeographicallydiverse,andtheoffshorewindzonesstudiedareprimarilysuitableforfloatingturbines. KeyTakeaway#3:SelectonshoreCREZswillbeimpactedbyoffshorewind,providingopportunitiesforstrategictransmissioninvestmentsinthe Next

結論. 1：與陸上風電和光伏相比，海上風電具有更穩定的發電曲線，支持VRE3324. #3：部分陸上CREZ將受海上風電影響，為菲律賓的戰略輸電投資提供機遇. AppendixA.Additional

A.附加數據.

ListofFigureES-1.PriorREZsandoffshorewindworkinthePhilippinesleadingtothis FigureES-2.OnshoreCREZs(L2–Py2)linkedtooffshorewinddevelopmentzones FigureES-3.Schematicofmodelingmethodologyusedinthisoffshorewindresourceassessmentforthe FigureES-4.Technicalpotentialcapacity(MW)andaveragetotalLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzoneandlinkedonshoreCREZ,disaggregatedbyturbine FigureES-5.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZforthedifferentgrowth Figure1.Componentsofcandidate Figure2.Selectbarriersforrenewableenergydevelopmentintraditionaltransmission Figure3.SelectREZcasestudiesimplementedthroughouttheworld(UnitedStates,Mexico,SouthAfrica,India,Bangladesh,Australia,NewZealand,andthe Figure4.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidononshorewindresource

ES?2CREZ（L2–Py2）與近海風電開發區（A–G）ES?3.圖2.傳統輸電規劃中可再生能源發展的選擇障礙圖3.全球范圍內實施的選擇可再生能源區案例研究（西蘭和菲律賓）4CREZ

... ...................Figure5.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidonsolarresourcedata...................................................................... Figure5.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidonsolarresource Figure6.OffshorewinddevelopmentzonesfromtheWorldBankroadmap(A–F)andRMIstudy Figure7.Gridcellsinoffshorewinddevelopmentzones,separatedbyfixedandfloatingturbine Figure8.Schematicofmodelingmethodologyusedinthisoffshorewindresourceassessmentforthe

6。世界銀行路線圖（A?F）RMI研究（G）中的近海風電開發區7。近海風電開發區中的電網單元，由固定式和浮式風機區域分隔8

............Figure9.SoutheastAsiawindresource Figure10.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)foreachoffshorewindzone Figure11.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)permonthforeachoffshorewindzone

Figure9.SoutheastAsiawindresource Figure10.A平均offshorewind容量ityf參與者(%)foreachoffshorewindzone 11。每個近海風電區的月平均近海風電容量因子（）（2009?2021）Figure12.Technicalpotentialcapacity(MW)andaveragetotalLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzone,disaggregatedbyturbinetype Figure13.Averagesite-basedLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzone,disaggregatedbyturbine Figure14.Averagelevelizedcostoftransmission($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzone,disaggregatedbyturbinetype

12。每個近海風區的技術潛在容量（MW）LCOE（$/MWh）13LCOE（$/MWh），平準 輸 區域F 14.平 cost ($/MWh)for平準 輸 區域

......Figure15.Supplycurveforoffshorewindzones....................................................................................... Figure15.Supplycurveforoffshorewind Figure16.Supplycurveforoffshorewindzones,disaggregatedbyturbine Figure17.Diagramofradial(left)versusnetworked(right)offshore Figure18.OnshoreCREZs(L2–Py2)linkedtooffshorewinddevelopmentzones

17。徑向（左）與網絡化（右）18CREZs（L2–Py2）與海上風電開發區（A–G）

........Figure19.CREZL2:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with

圖19。CREZL2：2017年平均月份的可再生能源發電小時變化率（），包含（和不含（太陽能光伏+陸andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind Figure20.CREZL3:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind Figure21.CREZL6:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind

上風電）圖21。CREZL6：2017年某月VRE發電小時變化率（%），包含（和不包含（太陽能光伏+陸上風電海上風電）

.......Figure22.CREZL10:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewindincluded Figure23.CREZMr1:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewindincluded Figure24.CREZMr2:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind Figure25.CREZN1:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind Figure26.CREZN2:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind

圖22。CREZL10：2017年某月VRE發電小時變化率（%），包含（全部）和不包含（太陽能光伏+風電）海上風電）......23。CREZMr1：2017VRE（），包含（全部）和不包含（+上風電）海上風電）24。CREZMr2：2017VRE（），包含（全部）和不包含（+陸上風電）海上風電）圖25。CREZN1：2017年某月VRE發電小時變化率（%），包含（和不包含（太陽能光伏+陸上風電海上風電）26。CREZN2：2017VRE發電小時變化率（），包含（和不包含（+陸上風電）海上風電）

..........Figure27.CREZPy1:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewind

27。CREZPy1：2017年某月VRE（），包含（全部）和不包含（太陽能光伏+Figure28.CREZPy2:VREgenerationhourlyrateofchange(%)foranaveragemonthof2017,with(All)andwithout(SolarPV+OnshoreWind)offshorewindincluded Figure29.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,andturbinetypefortheWorldBankLowGrowthscenario Figure30.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,andturbinetypefortheWorldBankHighGrowthscenario

28。CREZPy2：2017（），包含（全部）（太陽能光伏+陸上風電）29CREZ、連接的海上風電區和渦輪機類型的世界銀行低增長情景下的最低成本海上風電部署。30CREZ

......Figure31.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,andtypeforthePhilippineEnergyPlanReference Figure32.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,and

31CREZ..圖32。基于CREZ、連接的海上風電區和渦輪機類型的最低成本海上風電部署 typeforthePhilippineEnergyPlanCleanEnergyScenario

..Figure33.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZ,linkedoffshorewindzone,and

33CREZ2typeforthePhilippineEnergyPlanCleanEnergyScenario Figure34.PriorREZsandoffshorewindworkinthePhilippinesleadingtothis Figure35.CREZL2:VREdailygenerationprofilesforanaveragemonthof Figure36.Technicalpotentialcapacity(MW)andaveragetotalLCOE($/MWh)foreachoffshorewindzoneandlinkedonshoreCREZ,disaggregatedbyturbine Figure37.Least-costoffshorewinddeploymentbasedonCREZforthedifferentgrowth FigureA-1.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneA FigureA-2.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneB FigureA-3.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneC FigureA-4.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZone

34。菲律賓先前可再生能源區（REZ）35。CREZL2：201736CREZ（MW）LCOE（$/MWh），37CREZFiA1A（2009?2021）每小時平均近海風電容量因子（）FiA2B（2009?2021）每小時平均近海風電容量因子（）FigureA?3C（2009?2021）每小時平均容量因子（）FigureA-4.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZone

.............. FigureA-5.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZone

FigureA-6.Averageoffshorewindcapacity FigureA-6.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneFigureA6F（2009?2021）每小時平均容量因子（） ...FigureA-7.Averageoffshorewindcapacityfactors(%)perhourforOffshoreWindZoneA?7G（2009?2021）每小時平均離岸風容量因子（ ListofTableES-1.AnticipatedOffshoreWindDeploymentinthePhilippinesUnderDifferentFuture TableES-2.AverageTotalLCOEandTechnicalPotentialCapacityforEachOffshoreWindZone,DisaggregatedbyTurbineType

ES?2LCOE

... Table1.DetailsofOffshoreWindZones..................................................................................................... Table1.DetailsofOffshoreWind Table2.OffshoreWindTechnologyPerformance Table3.OffshoreWindCost Table4.AverageTotalLCOEandTechnicalPotentialCapacityforEachOffshoreWindZone,DisaggregatedbyTurbineType

3.4LCOE

...........Table5.DetailsofCREZsLinkedtoOffshoreWindZones...................................................................... Table5.DetailsofCREZsLinkedtoOffshoreWind Table6.AnticipatedOffshoreWindDeploymentinthePhilippinesUnderDifferentFutureScenarios...24Table7.AverageTotalLCOEandTechnicalPotentialCapacityforOffshoreWindWithPotentialtoInterconnectattheDifferentOnshoreCREZs,DisaggregatedbyOffshoreWindZoneandTurbine Table8.OffshoreWindCapacityImpactingEachCREZUnderDifferent

7CREZsLCOE和技術潛在容量，按海上8CREZ

.....Table9.CREZsandAssociatedTransmissionProject(s),notAccountingforFutureOffshore

/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryatRenewableEnergyArenewableenergyzone(REZ)isageographicareathatenablesthedevelopmentofcost-effectiveutility-scalerenewableenergyandischaracterizedbyhigh-qualityrenewableenergyresources,suitabletopographyandlandusedesignations,andstrongcommercialinterest(Lee,Flores-Espino,andHurlbut2017).High-qualityrenewableenergyresourcescanbeestimatedwithsolarirradianceandwindspeeddata;suitabletopographycanbeassessedviadataonprotectedenvironmentalareas,urbanareas,waterbodies,andslope;andstrongcommercialinterestcanbeconfirmedusinginformationoneconomicdevelopmentareasordemonstratedprivatesectorinvestment.TheseREZcomponentsaredisplayedinFigure1.Figure1.ComponentsofcandidateSource:FigurebyBillyRoberts(NREL),adaptedfromLopezTheREZconcept,firstpioneeredintheU.S.stateofTexas,wasdevelopedasatransmissionplanningframework,enablingstateregulatorstoproactivelyplan,approve,andbuildtransmissioninfrastructuretoconnecthigh-qualityandlarge-scalerenewableresourcestothebulkpowersystem(Hurlbut,Chernyakhovskiy,andCochran2016).ThisapproachoftransmissionplanningusingREZsisintendedtoremovesomeofthebarrierstorenewableenergydevelopmentinherentintraditionaltransmissionplanning,showninFigure2.Onebarrierisamisalignmentoftimescales,asbulktransmissioncantakeseveraldecadestoplanandconstruct,whileplanningandconstructionofrenewableresourcessuchaswindandsolarcantakeseveralyearsincomparison.Anotherbarrieriswhatisknownasthe“circulardilemma,”inwhicharenewableenergydeveloperhasdifficultyobtainingfinancingbecausethelenderswantconfidenceaboutadequatetransmissioncapacity,whiletransmissionrequiresregulatoryapproval,andultimatelytheregulatorswanttoensurethatthetransmissioninvestmentcanrecoveritscoststhroughusebyagenerator.TheREZtransmissionplanningprocess,particularlyapplicableforrenewableenergyexpansionthatisconstrainedbyinsufficientgridcapacity,canhelpaddressthesebarriersbyproactivelycoordinatingrenewableenergyandtransmissiondevelopmentinordertoconnectlow-costresourceswithdemandcenters.

可再生能源區（REZ）以及濃厚的商業興趣（LeeFlores?EspinoandHurlbut2017）。高質量的可再生REZ1圖1.候選REZBillyRoberts（NREL）Lopez（2016）可再生能源區（REZ）的概念最早在美國德克薩斯州提出，最初作為輸電規劃框架發展而來，使州監管機構能夠主動規劃、批準和建設輸電基礎設施，以將高質量和大規模的可再生能源資源連接到主要電力系統（HurlbutChernyakhovskiyCochran2016）REZ2 Figure2.SelectbarriersforrenewableenergydevelopmentintraditionaltransmissionSource:Leeetal.KeyenablersofREZsincludeprocessclarity(i.e.,outliningclearandtransparentprocessesforREZselectionandbuildout),strongstakeholderengagement(i.e.,engagingprivatedevelopers,landowners,andgovernmentministries,etc.),high-qualitydata(i.e.,makingdecisionsusingbestavailableresource,land-use,andeconomicdata),andregulatoryweight(i.e.,ensuringthattheREZtransmissionprocessisincorporatedintoregulatoryproceedingsfortransmissionapproval)(JoshiandDesai2023).RelevantBackgroundTheREZprocesshasbeenimplementedtovaryingdegreesthroughouttheworld,includinginthePhilippines,andhasbeentailoredtoeachcountryorregion’sparticularresourcemix,geography,andelectricindustrystructure(Figure3).Figure3.SelectREZcasestudiesimplementedthroughouttheworld(UnitedStates,Mexico,SouthAfrica,India,Bangladesh,Australia,NewZealand,andthePhilippines)Sources:Hurlbut,Harrison-Atlas,andGu(2022);Brachoetal.(2022);DFFE(2022);Deshmukhetal.(2017);Joshietal.(2023);AEMO(2022);TranspowerNewZealandLimited(2022);Leeetal.(2020).

Figure2.SelectbarriersforrenewableenergydevelopmentintraditionaltransmissionSource:Leeetal.REZ（REZ）、強有（即使用最佳可用資源、土地利用和經濟數據做決策），以及監管權重（REZ電流程納入輸電審批的監管程序）（JoshiDesai2023）。REZ源組合、地理和電力行業結構進行了定制（3）圖3.世界各地實施的REZ案例研究（美國、?西哥、南非、印度、孟加拉國、澳大利?、新西蘭和菲律來源：HurlbutHarrison?AtlasGu(2022Bracho2022DFFE2022；Deshmukh2017Joshi2023；AEMO(2022Transpower2022Lee2020)。ThePhilippineshasbeenaleaderinincorporatingREZsintotheirpowersectordevelopmentplans.AgridintegrationstudyfortheLuzon-Visayassystemassessedthefeasibilityofachieving30%and50%renewableenergyintheelectricitymixby2030,andoneofthekeyfindingsisthatachievinghighlevelsofwindandsolarintegrationwillrequirecoordinatedplanningofgenerationandtransmissiondevelopment,potentiallythroughacompetitiverenewableenergyzones(CREZs)approach(Barrowsetal.2017).ThisrecommendationwasenactedinPhase1ofthePhilippinesCREZproject,whichidentified25individualCREZsacrossthePhilippineswithhigh-qualityresources,limiteddevelopmentconstraints,andstrongprivatesectorinterest.Thestudyfocusedprimarilyononshorewindandsolarphotovoltaics(PV)toidentifytheCREZs,andsubsequentlyquantifiedbiomass,geothermal,andhydropowerresourceswithintheseCREZs(Leeetal.2020).The25CREZs,overlayedonmapsofthePhilippines’onshorewindandsolarresources,areshowninFigure4andFigure5,respectively.Figure4.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidononshorewindresourceSource:FigurebyBillyRoberts(NREL),fromLeeetal.

菲律賓在將可再生能源區（REZs）納入其電力部門發展計劃方面一直處于領先地位。對?Visayas20303050需要協調發電和輸電發展計劃，可能通過競爭性可再生能源區（CREZs）的方法（Barrows2017）CREZ25CREZs。該研究主要關注陸上風電和光伏（PV）CREZsCREZs物質能、地熱能和水電資源（Lee2020）25CREZs45Figure4.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidononshorewindresource來源：BillyRoberts（NREL）Lee（2020）/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryat Figure5.PhilippinesCREZsoverlaidonsolarresourceSource:FigurebyBillyRoberts(NREL),fromLeeetal.TeamsfromthePhilippinesDepartmentofEnergy,theNationalGridCorporationofthePhilippines,andtheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’sNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)modeledtransmissionexpansionoptionsinsummer2019toconnecttheseCREZstothemaingrid,examiningthecostsandbenefitsbybuildingupontheproductioncostmodeldevelopedfortheLuzon-Visayasgridintegrationstudy(Barrowsetal.2017).Phase2ofthePhilippinesCREZprojectinvolved,amongotheractivities,enhancingthePhilippinesDepartmentofEnergy’scapabilitiesforlong-termelectricityloadmodeling,whichisakeyinputingenerationandtransmissionplanning(Zhouetal.2023).ThisreportispartofPhase3ofthePhilippinesCREZproject,whichbuildsuponthefoundationofthispriorworkandincorporatesoffshorewindintotheCREZtransmissionplanningframework.

5.菲律賓CREZsSource:FigurebyBillyRoberts(NREL),fromLeeetal.菲律賓能源部、菲律賓國家電網公司和美國能源部國家可再生能源實驗室（NREL）的2019CREZs?（Barrows2017）開發的生產成本模型基CREZZhou2023）CREZCREZ/publicationsThisreportisavailableatnocostfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryatProjectMotivationandThePhilippinesisaimingtobuildadomesticoffshorewindindustryandhasincorporatedoffshorewindintoseveralplanningefforts.Forinstance,theWorldBankhasdevelopedacomprehensiveoffshorewindroadmapforthePhilippines,includingtwogrowthscenariosandidentifyingseveraloffshorewindzones,alongwithanalysisaboutenergycosts,supplychains,transmissioninfrastructure,ports,financing,andmore(WorldBank2022).OneoftherecommendationsfromtheWorldBankroadmapisforthePhilippinestoincorporatetheoffshorewinddevelopmentzonesfullyintoCREZsandtransmissiondevelopmentplanning.RMIhasconductedapre-feasibilitystudyandinterconn