1998年

Text1

Fewcreationsofbigtechnologycapturetheimaginationlikegiantdams.Perhapsitishumankind’slongsufferingatthemercyoffloodanddroughtthatmakestheideaofforcingthewaterstodoourbiddingsofascinating.Buttobefascinatedisalso,sometimes,tobeblind.Severalgiantdamprojectsthreatentodomoreharmthangood.

Thelessonfromdamsisthatbigisnotalwaysbeautiful.Itdoesn’thelpthatbuildingabig,powerfuldamhas easymbolofachievementfornationsandpeoplestrivingtoassertthemselves.Egypt’sleadershipintheArabworldwascementedbytheAswanHighDam.Turkey’sbidforFirstWorldstatusludesthegiantAtaturkDam.

Butbigdamstendnottoworkasintended.TheAswanDam,forexample,stoppedtheNilefloodingbutdeprivedEgyptofthefertilesiltthatfloodsleft--allinreturnforagiantreservoirofdiseasewhichisnowsofullofsiltthatitbarelygenerateselectricity.

Andyet,themythofcontrollingthewaterspersists.Thisweek,intheheartofcivilizedEurope,SlovaksandHungariansstoppedjustshortofsendinginthetroopsintheircontentionoveradamontheDanube.Thehugecomplexwillprobablyhavealltheusualproblemsofbigdams.ButSlovakiaisbiddingforcefromtheCzechs,andnowneedsadamtoproveitself.

Meanwhile,,theWorldBankhasgiventhego-aheadtotheevenmorewrong-headed

NarmadaDam.Andthebankhasdonethiseventhoughitsadvisorssaythedamwillcausehardshipforthepowerlessandenvironmentaldestruction.Thebenefitsareforthepowerful,buttheyarefarfromguaranteed.

Proper,scientificstudyoftheimpactsofdamsandofthecostandbenefitsofcontrollingwatercanhelptoresolvetheses.Hydroelectricpowerandfloodcontrolandirrigationarepossiblewithoutbuildingmonsterdams.Butwhenyouaredealingwithmyths,itishardtobeeitherproper,orscientific.ItistimethattheworldlearnedthelessonsofAswan.Youdon’tneedadamtobesaved.

ThethirdsentenceofParagraph1impliesthat .

peoplewouldbehappyiftheyshuttheireyestoreality

theblindcouldbehappierthanthesighted

over-excitedpeopletendtoneglectvitalthings

fascinationmakespeoplelosetheireyesight

InParagraph5,“thepowerless”probablyrefersto .

areasshortofelectricity

damswithoutpowerstations

poorcountriesaround

commonpeopleintheNarmamarea

Whatisthemythconcerninggiantdams?

Theybringinmorefertilesoil.

Theyhelpdefendthecountry.

Theystrengtheninternationalties.

Theyhaveuniversalcontrolofthewaters.

Whattheauthortriestosuggestmaybestbeinterpretedas .

“It’snousecryin erspiltmilk”

“Morehaste,lessspeed”

“Lookbeforeyouleap”

“Hewholaughslastlaughsbest”

Text2

Well,nogainwithoutpain,theysay.Butwhataboutpainwithoutgain?EverywhereyougoinAmerica,youheartalesofcorporaterevival.Whatishardertoestablishiswhethertheproductivityrevolutionthatbusinessmenassumetheyarepresidinerisforreal.

Theofficialstatisticsaremildlydiscouraging.Theyshowthat,ifyoulumpmanufacturingandservicestogether,productivityhasgrownoageby1.2%se1987.Thatissomewhatfasterthantheaverageduringthepreviousdecade.Andse1991,productivityhasreasedbyabout2%ayear,whichismorethantwicethe1978-87average.Thetroubleisthatpartoftherecentaccelerationisduetotheusualreboundthatoccursatthispointinabusinesscycle,andso

isnotconclusiveevidenceofarevivalintheunderlyingtrend.Thereis,asRobertRubin,thetreasurysecretary,says,a“disjunction”betweenthemassofbusinessanecdotethatpointstoaleapinproductivityandthepicturereflectedbythestatistics.

Someofthiscanbeeasilyexined.Newwaysoforganizingtheworkce--allthatre-engineeringanddownsizing--areonlyonecontributiontotheoverallproductivityofaneconomy,whichisdrivenbymanyotherfactorssuchasjointinvestmentinequipmentandmachinery,newtechnology,andinvestmentineducationandtraining.Moreover,mostofthechangesthatcompaniesmakeareintendedtokeepthemprofitable,andthisneednotalwaysmean

reasingproductivity:switchingtonewmarketsorimprovingqualitycanmatterjustasmuch.

Twootherexnationsaremorespeculative.First,someofthebusinessrestructuringofrecentyearsmayhavebeenineptlydone.Second,evenifitwaswelldone,itmayhavespreadmuchlesswidelythanpeoplesuppose.

LeonardSchlesinger,aHarvardacademicandformerchiefexecutiveofAuBongPain,arapidlygrowingchainofbakerycafes,saysthatmuch“re-engineering”hasbeencrude.Inmanycases,hebelieves,thelossofrevenuehasbeengreaterthanthereductionsost.Hiscolleague,MichaelBeer,saysthatfartoomanycompanieshaveappliedre-engineeringinamechanisticfashion,chopoutcostswithoutgivingsufficientthoughttolong-termprofitability.BBDO’sAlRosenshineisblunter.Hedismissesalotoftheworkongineeringconsultantsasmererubbish--“theworstsortofambulancechasing.”

Accordingtotheauthor,theAmericaneconomicsituationis .

notasgoodasitseems

atitsturningpoint

muchbetterthanitseems

neartocompleterecovery

Theofficialstatisticsonproductivitygrowth .

excludetheusualreboundinabusinesscycle

fallshortofbusinessmen’santicipation

meettheexpectationofbusinesspeople

failtoreflectthetruestateofeconomy

Theauthorraisesthequestion“whataboutpainwithoutgain?”because .

hequestionsthetruthof“nogainwithoutpain”

hedoesnotthinktheproductivityrevolutionworks

hewondersiftheofficialstatisticsaremisleading

hehasconclusiveevidencefortherevivalofbusinesses

WhichofthefollowingstatementsisNOTmentionedinthepassage?

Radicalreformsareessentialforthereaseofproductivity.

Newwaysoforganizingworkcesmayhelpto reaseproductivity.

Thereductionofcostsisnotasurewaytogainlong-termprofitability.

Theconsultantsareabunchofgood-for-nothings.

Text3

Sciencehaslonghadanuneasyrelationshipwithotheraspectsofculture.ThinkofGallileo’s17th-centurytrialforhisrebellingbeliefbeforetheCatholicChurchorpoetWilliamBlake’sharshremarksthemechanisticworldviewofIsaacNewton.Theschismbetweenscienceandthehumanitieshas,ifanything,deepenedinthiscentury.

Untilrecently,thescientificcommunitywassopowerfulthatitcouldaffordtoignoreitscritics--butnolonger.Asfundingforsciencehasdeclined,scientistshaveattacked“cience”inseveralbooks,notablyHigherSuperstition,byPaulR.Gross,abiologistattheUniversityofVirginia,andNormanLevitt,amathematicianatRutgersUniversity;andTheDemon-HauntedWorld,byCarlSaganofCornellUniversity.

Defendersofsciencehavealsovoicedtheirconcernsatmeetingssuchas“TheFlightfromScienceandReason,”heldinNewYorkCityin1995,and“ScienceintheAgeof(Mis)information,”whichassembledlastJunenearBuffalo.

cienceclearlymeansdifferentthingstodifferentpeople.GrossandLevittfindfaultprimarilywithsociologists,philosophersandotheracademicswhohavequestionedscience’sobjectivity.Saganismoreconcernedwiththosewhobelieveinghosts,creationismandotherphenomenathatcontradictthescientificworldview.

Asurveyofnewsstoriesin1996revealsthattheciencetaghasbeenattachedtomanyothergroupsaswell,fromwhoadvocatedtheeliminationofthelastremainingstocksofsmallpoxtoRepublicanswhoadvocateddecreasedfundingforbasicresearch.

FewwoulddisputethatthetermappliestotheUnabomber,whosemanifesto,publishedin

1995,scornsscienceandlongsforreturntoapre-technologicalutopia.Butsurelythatdoesnotmeanenvironmentalistsconcernedaboutuncontrolledindustrialgrowthare cience,asanessayinUSNews&WorldReportlastMayseemedtosuggest.

Theenvironmentalists,inevitably,respondtosuchcritics.Thetrueenemiesofscience,arguesPaulEhrlichofStanfordUniversity,apioneerofenvironmentalstudies,arethosewhoquestiontheevidencesupportingglobalwarming,thedepletionoftheozonelayerandotherconsequencesofindustrialgrowth.

Indeed,someobserversfearthatthecienceepithetisindangerof ingmeaningless.“Theterm‘cience’canlumptogethertoomany,quitedifferentthings,”notesHarvardUniversityphilosopherGeraldHoltoninhis1993workScienceand cience.“Theyhaveommononlyhingthattheytendtoannoyorthreatenthosewhoregardthemselvesasmoreenlightened.”

Theword“schism”(Line4,Paragraph1)inthecontextprobablymeans .[A]

dissatisfaction

separation

contempt

Paragraphs2and3arewrittento .

discussthecauseofthedeclineofscience’spower

showtheauthor’ssympathywithscientists

exinthewayinwhichsciencedevelops

exemplifythedivisionofscienceandthehumanities

Whichofthefollowingistrueaccordingtothepassage?

Environmentalistswereblamedforcienceinanessay.

Politiciansarenotsubjecttothelabelingofcience.

The“moreenlightened”tendtotagothersas cience.

Taggingenvironmentalistsas“cience”isjustifiable.

Theauthor’sattitudetowardtheissueof“sciencevs.cience”is .

impartial

subjective

biased

puzzling

Text4

Emergingfromthe1980censusisthepictureofanationdevelomoreandmoreregionalcompetition,aspopulationgrowthintheNortheastandMidwestreachesanearstandstill.

Thisdevelopment--anditsstrongimplicationsforUSpoliticsandeconomyinyearsahead

--hasenthronedtheSouthasAmerica’smostdenselypopulatedregionforthefirsttimeinthe

historyofthenation’sheadcounting.

Altogether,theUSpopulationroseinthe1970sby23.2millionpeople--numericallythethird-largestgrowtheverrecordedinasingledecade.Evenso,thatgainaddsuptoonly11.4percent,lowestinAmericanannualrecordceptfortheDepressionyears.

AmericanshavebeenmigratingsouthandwestinlargernumbersseWorldWarII,andthepatternstillprevails.

Threesun-beltstates--Florida,TexasandCalifornia--togetherhadnearly10millionmorepeoplein1980thanadecadeearlier.Amonglargecities,SanDiegomovedfrom14thto8thandSanAntoniofrom15thto10th--withClevelandandWashington.D.C.,dropoutofthetop10.

Notallthatshiftcanbeattributedtothemovementoutofthesnowbelt,censusofficialssay.Nonstopwavesofimmigrantsyedarole,too--andsodidbiggercropsofbabiesasyesterday’s“babyboom”generationreacheditschildbearingyears.

Moreover,demographersseethecontinuingshiftsouthandwestasjoinedbyarelatedbutnewerphenomenon:Moreandmore,Americansapparentlyarelookingnotjustforceswithmorejobsbutwithfewerpeople,too.Someinstances—

■Regionally,theRockyMountainstatesreportedthemostrapidgrowthrate--37.1percentse1970inavastareawithonly5percentoftheUSpopulation.

■Amongstates,NevadaandArizonagrewfastestofall:63.5and53.1percentrespectively.ExceptforFloridaandTexas,thetop10inrateofgrowthiscomposedofWesternstateswith7.5millionpeople--about9persquare.

Theflightfromovercrowdednessaffectsthemigrationfromsnowbelttomorebearable

climates.

Nowheredo1980censusstatisticsdramatizemoretheAmericansearchforspaciouslivingthanintheFarWest.There,Californiaadded3.7milliontoitspopulationinthe1970s,morethananyotherstate.

Inthatdecade,however,largenumbersalsomigratedfromCalifornia,mostlytootherpartsoftheWest.Oftentheychose--andstillarechoosing--somewhatcolderclimatessuchasOregon,IdahoandAlaskainordertoescapesmog,crimeandothersofurbanizationintheGoldenState.

Asaresult,California’sgrowthratedroppedduringthe1970s,to18.5percent--littlemorethantwothirdsthe1960s’growthfigureandconsiderablybelowthatofotherWesternstates.

Discernedfromtheperplexingpictureofpopulationgrowththe1980censusprovided,Americain1970s .

enjoyedthelowes growthofpopulationinhistory

witnessedasouthwesternshiftofpopulation

underwentanunparalleledperiodofpopulationgrowth

broughttoastandstillitspatternofmigrationseWorldWarII

Thecensusdistinguisheditselffrompreviousstudiesonpopulationmovementinthat

.

itstressestheclimaticinfluenceonpopulationdistribution

ithighlightsthecontributionofcontinuouswavesofimmigrants

itrevealstheAmericans’newpursuitofspaciousliving

i aboratesthedelayedeffectsofyesterday’s“babyboom”

Wecanseefromtheavailablestatisticsthat .

CaliforniawasoncethemostthinlypopulatedareainthewholeUS

thetop10statesingrowthrateofpopulationwerealllocatedintheWest

citieswithbetterclimatesbenefitedunanimouslyfrommigration

Arizonarankedsecondofallstatesinitsgrowthrateofpopulation

Theword“demographers”(Line1,Paragraph8)mostprobablymeans .

peopleinfavorofthetrendofdemocracy

advocatesofmigrationbetweenstates

scientis gagedinthestudyofpopulation

conservativesclingingtooldpatternsoflife

Text5

Scatteredaroundtheglobearemorethan100smallregionsofisolatedvolcanicactivityknowntogeologistsashotspots.Unlikemostoftheworld’svolcanoes,theyarenotalwaysfoundattheboundariesofthegreatdriftingtesthatmakeuptheearth’ssurface;onthecontrary,manyofthemliedeepintheinteriorofate.Mostofthehotspotsmoveonlyslowly,andinsomecasesthemovementofthetespastthemhaslefttrailsofdeadvolcanoes.Thehotspots

andtheirvolcanictrailsare tonesthatmarkthepassageofthetes.

Thatthetesaremovingisnowbeyonddispute.AfricaandSouthAmerica,forexample,aremovingawayfromeachotherasnewmaterialisinjectedintotheseafloorbetweenthem.Thecomplementarycoastlinesandcertaingeologicalfeaturesthatseemtospantheoceanareremindersofwherethetwocontinentswereoncejoined.Therelativemotionofthetescarryingthesecontinentshasbeenconstructedindetail,butthemotionofonetewithrespecttoanothercannotreadilybetranslatedintomotionwithrespecttotheearth’sinterior.Itisnotpossibletodeterminewhetherbothcontinentsaremovinginoppositedirectionsorwhetheronecontinentisstationaryandtheotherisdriftingawayfromit.Hotspots,anchoredinthedeeperlayersoftheearth,providethemeasuringinstrumentsneededtoresolvethequestion.Fromanysisofthehot-spotpopulationitappearsthattheAfricanteisstationaryandthatithasnotmoveddurin