2023-07-312023-07-31中信期貨研究|中信期貨研究|CITICFuturesResearch重要提示：本報告非期貨交易咨詢業務項下服務，其中的觀點和信息僅作參考之用，不構成對任何人投資建議。我司不會因為關注、收到或閱讀本報告內容而視相關人員為客戶；市場有風險，投資需謹慎。Importantnote:Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.Ourcompanywillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport;Therearerisksinthemarket,andinvestmentneedstobecautious.konChinaEconomyinHSTRACT回顧：一季度中國經濟恢復好于預期，但二季度經濟增長動能明顯減弱。一季度經濟表現較好主要因為積壓需求的釋放。二季度積壓需求釋放大幅減少，房地產預期有所走弱，而居民消費信心恢復仍然緩慢；因此，經濟增長動能明顯減弱。Review:Chinaeconomyrecoveredbetterthanexpectedin2023Q1,andthegrowthsloweddownin2023Q2.Thereleaseofbacklogdemandafterreopeningcontributedtotheinitialrecovery.Theslowdowninthesecondquarterwasduetothedecreasedbacklogdemand,weakenedrealestateexpectation,andslowrecoveryofconsumerconfidence.展望：下半年政策支持力度的加大或將推動中國經濟溫和復蘇。根據7月政治局會議精神，中國政府將積極擴大國內需求。在政策支持下，下半年投資與消費有望改善。外需可能小幅走弱，但低基數效應或將推動出口同比增速回升。預計下半年GDP增長加快，全年GDP目標可以實現。Outlook:SupportivepoliciesmaycontributetothemoderaterecoveryofChinaeconomyin2023H2.AccordingtothePoliticalBureaumeetinginJuly,thegovernmentwillmakeeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemandin2023H2.Withpolicysupport,Chinainvestmentandconsumptionareexpectedtoimprove.Overseasdemandmayweakenslightly,buttheYoYgrowthrateofexportsmayreboundduetothelowbaseeffect.China'sGDPgrowthmayacceleratein2023H2andtheannualGDPgrowthtargetofaround5.0%shouldbeachievable.資咨詢業務資格：vestmentconsultingbusinessationSECLicenseNo.669劉道鈺格號：F3061482咨詢號：Z0016422LiuDaoyuQualificationNo.：F3061482ConsultingNo.：Z0016422桂晨曦號：F3023159咨詢號：Z0013632GuiChenxiQualificationNo.：F3023159ConsultingNo.：Z0013632resResearch2/20 3/20回顧Review一季度中國經濟恢復好于預期，但二季度經濟增長動能明顯減弱。一季度經濟表現較好主要因為積壓需求的釋放。二季度經濟增長動能減弱有三個原因。Chinaeconomyrecoveredbetterthanexpectedin2023Q1,butthegrowthsloweddownin2023Q2,excludingthebaseeffect.Thebetter-than-expectedeconomicperformancein2023Q1wasmainlyduetothereleaseofbacklogdemand.Therearethreereasonsfortheslowdownofeconomicgrowthin2023Q2.首先，積壓需求釋放大幅減少。消費與商品房銷售的積壓需求在一季度基本釋放完畢，出口的積壓需求到4月也基本釋放完畢。其次，房地產市場預期轉弱抑制了商品房銷售與房地產投資。最后，居民消費信心恢復仍然緩慢。二季度社會費消費品零售總額兩年平均增速僅2.8%，遠低于疫情前8%的水平。Firstly,thereleaseofbacklogdemandhassignificantlydecreased.Thebacklogdemandforconsumptionandcommercialhousingsaleswasmostlyreleasedin2023Q1,andthebacklogofexportdemandwasreleasedfullybyApril.Secondly,weakenedrealestateexpectationsuppressedthesalesofcommercialbuildingsandtheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopment.Finally,therecoveryofconsumerconfidenceremainsslow.Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswasonly2.8%in2023Q2,farlowerthanthegrowthrateof8%beforeCOVIDpandemic.4/201.政策Policy會議，分析當前經濟形勢，部署下半年經濟工作。我們認為，下半年政策端將積極擴大國內需求，努力實現5%左右的GDP增長目標。OnJuly24,thePoliticalBureauoftheCommunistPartyofChina(CPC)CentralCommitteeheldameetingtoanalyzethecurrenteconomicsituationandplanforeconomicworkforthesecondhalfof2023.Basedonourunderstanding,thegovernmentwillmakeeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemandin2023H2andtoachieveanannualGDPgrowthtargetofaround5%.政治局會議指出，當前經濟運行面臨新的困難挑戰。主要是國內需求不足，一些企業經營困難，重點領域風險隱患較多，外部環境復雜嚴峻。中國經濟具有巨大的發展韌性和潛力，長期向好的基本面沒有改變。ThepolitburomeetingpointedoutthatChina'seconomyisfacingnewdifficultiesandchallenges,whichmainlyarisefrominsufficientdomesticdemand,difficultiesintheoperationofsomeenterprises,risksandhiddendangersinkeyareas,aswellasagrimandcomplexexternalenvironment.Chinaeconomyhasenormousdevelopmentresilienceandpotential,andpositivefundamentalshavenotchangedinthelongterm.會議要求，精準有力實施宏觀調控，加強逆周期調節和政策儲備。這意味著，如果國內經濟不能穩住，還會有進一步的穩經濟措施出臺。Themeetingcalledforcarryingoutmacroeconomicregulationwithprecisionandforce,strengtheningcounter-cyclicalmeasures,andmakingmorepolicyoptionsavailable,indicatingthatmorepoliciesaimtostabilizetheeconomywillbeintroducedifthedomesticeconomycannotimprove.5/20會議還要求“貫徹新發展理念”。這意味著經濟發展不會重走老路，不會過度舉債搞建設，不會過度刺激消費。政策目標是“推動經濟實現質的有效提升和量的Themeetingalsocalledfortheimplementationofthenewdevelopmentconcept,whichmeansthateconomicdevelopmentwillnotbethesamewayasitwas,willnotexcessivelyborrowforconstruction,andwillnotexcessivelystimulateconsumption.Thepolicygoalistopromotetheeffectiveimprovementofqualityandreasonablegrowthofquantityintheeconomy,withGDPincreasingbyabout5.0%YoY.為了解決國內需求不足的困難，會議要求積極擴大國內需求。消費方面，政治局會議提及“要提振汽車、電子產品、家居等大宗消費”，最近這些政策均已落地。投資方面，政治局會議要求“更好發揮政府投資帶動作用，加快地方政府專項債券發行和使用”，并表示“制定出臺促進民間投資的政策措施”。其中，促進民間投資的措施已經發布。Themeetingnecessitatedeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemand.Intermsofconsumption,themeetingmentionedthat“consumptionofmajoritemsincludingautomobiles,electronicproductsandhouseholditemsshouldbeboosted”.Relevantpolicieshavebeenreleasedrecently.Intermsofinvestment,themeetingdemandedthatgovernmentinvestmentshouldbetterplaytheroleofdrivingoverallinvestment,withfasterissuanceanduseoflocalgovernmentspecial-purposebonds.Themeetingalsodemandedthatmorepoliciesshouldbeformulatedandrolledouttospurprivateinvestment,andthesepoliceshavebeenreleased.resResearch6/20房地產方面，政治局會議要求“適時調整優化房地產政策”，這意味著大中城市的限購、限貸等偏緊的政策將適當放松。不過，政策的放開可能也不會一步到位，從而防范房地產炒作。政策的目標是促進房地產市場平穩健康發展。Intermsofrealestate,themeetingdemandedthatreal-estatepoliciesshouldbeadjustedandoptimizedinatimelymanner,whichmeansrelativelytightpoliciessuchaspurchaserestrictionsandloanrestrictionsinlargeandmedium-sizedcitiesinChinawillbeappropriatelyrelaxed.However,therelaxationofpoliciesmaynotbefullyimplementedallatoncetopreventrealestatespeculation.Thepolicyobjectiveistoadvancethestableandsounddevelopmentoftherealestatemarket.2.投資Investment二季度固定資產投資增長偏慢，但6月增速已企穩回升。二季度固定資產投資同比增長3.0%，增速比一季度低2.1個百分點。不過，6月固定資產投資增速已經企穩回升，其同比增速、兩年平均增速較5月均提高1.3個百分點。ChinafixedassetinvestmentgrewatarelativelyslowpaceinQ2,butthegrowthratereboundedinJune.Theinvestmentinfixedassetsgrewby+3.0%YoYinQ2,2.1%lowerthanQ1.However,itreboundedinJune,withitsYoYandtwo-yearaveragegrowthratesbothincreasingby+1.3%comparedwithMay.resResearch7/20ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY%twoyearaveragegrowthratein2021)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY%twoyearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)固定資產投資房地產基建制造業FixedAssetInvestmentRealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing固定資產投資房地產基建制造業FixedAssetInvestmentRealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing2520151050-5-10-15-202520151050-5-10-15-20Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF產投資Realestateinvestment中國房地產行業調整已經較為充分，進一步下行空間并不大。2021年下半年以來房地產回調時間長達2年；從時間上看，回調是較為充分的。2022年下半年疫情對居民購房意愿的抑制相當顯著，投資與投機性購房需求應該已經充分地被擠出。過去1年商品房銷售面積與房屋新開工面積相對于2019年同期的增速大體呈現筑底特征。因此，房地產進一步下行空間不大。TheadjustmentofChina'srealestateindustryhasbeenrelativelysufficient,andfurtherdownwardspaceislimited.Since2021H2,therealestateindustryhasexperiencedatwo-yearretreat,whichwasrelativelysufficientfromtheperspectiveoftime.Theresidents'willingnesstopurchasehouseswassignificantlysuppressedbytheepidemicin2022H2,whichmeansthattheinvestmentandspeculativedemandforcommercialhousingshouldhavebeenfullysqueezedout.Thegrowthratesofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandnewlystartedhasgenerallyshownabottomingoutfeature,comparedwiththesameperiodof2019.Thereisnotmuchroomforfurtherdeclineinrealestateindustry.resResearch8/2030 20 10 30 20 10 0-10-20-30-40-50-60-70,2021年為兩年平均增速)RealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthYoYtwoyearaveragegrowthratein2021)thcomparedtothesameperiodin2019,%FloorspaceofbuildingssoldYoY% FloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoY% InvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY%200-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23Growthrateoffloorspacesold(comparedto2019) Growthrateoffloorspacenewlystarted(comparedto2019) Growthrateofrealestateinvestment(comparedto2019)Feb-20Aug-20Feb-21Aug-21Feb-22Aug-22Feb-23資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF近期居民購房觀望情緒濃厚以及二手房供應增加使得新房銷售面臨一些下行的壓力。7月份以來30大中城市商品房銷售面積進一步回落。這有兩個原因。一是房價下跌導致居民購房觀望情緒濃厚。二是房價上漲預期減弱使得二手房供應增加，二手房分流了一些新房需求。這兩個因素使得短期新房銷售面臨一些下行壓力。Thestrongwait-and-seesentimentamongresidentsinpurchasinghouses,andtheincreaseinsupplyofsecond-handhousinghaveputsomedownwardpressureonnewhousingsales.SinceJuly,thefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcitieshasfurtherdeclined.Therearetworeasonsforthis.Firstly,thedeclineinhousingpriceshasledtoastrongwait-and-seesentimentamongresidentswhenpurchasinghouses.Secondly,weakenedexpectationsofhousingpriceshasledtoanincreaseinthesupplyofsecond-handhousing,whichhasdivertedsomedemandfornewhousing.Thesefactorshaveputsomedownwardpressureontheshort-termnewhousingsales.resResearch9/20Floorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcities-daymeanaverage,10,000squaremeters)70MajorCitiesSecond-HandHousingPricesMoM%100908070605040302002023202220202019JFMAMJJASOND70城一線二線三線70CitiesTier1Tier2Tier31.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0Jan-21Jan-22JanJan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-19資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF政策支持力度加大有望對沖房地產下行壓力，下半年房地產投資處于筑底階段。7月10日，中國人民銀行、金融監管總局通知延長金融支持房地產市場平穩健康發展有關政策期限。這有利于維護房地產開發商資金流穩定。7月24日，中央政治局會議明確表示“適時調整優化房地產政策”。意味著大中城市限購、限貸等偏緊政策將適當放松。在政策支持下，下半年商品房銷售有望企穩，房地產投資總體筑底。Thestrengtheningpolicysupportisexpectedtorelievedownwardpressureonrealestate,andtherealestateinvestmentmaybottomoutin2023H2.OnJuly10th,ThePeople'sBankofChinaandtheStateAdministrationofFinancialRegulationannouncedtheextensionofthepolicyperiodrelatedtofinancialsupportforthestableandhealthydevelopmentoftherealestateindustry,whichhelpsmaintainthestabilityofrealestatedevelopers'cashflow.OnJuly24th,thePolitburomeetingdemandedthatreal-estatepoliciesshouldbeadjustedandoptimizedinatimelymanner,whichmeansrelativelytightpoliciessuchaspurchaserestrictionsandloanrestrictionsinlargeandmedium-sizedcitieswillbeappropriatelyrelaxed.Withpolicysupport,thefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandtheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentisexpectedtobottomoutin2023H2.resResearch10/20201520151050 -5-10-15-20-25-30202320222021JFMAMJJASOND投資Infrastructureinvestment由于穩增長力度加大，預計下半年基建投資增長將有所加快。上半年基建治局會議要求，下半年加快地方政府專項債券發行和使用，更好地發揮政府投資帶動作用。預計下半年基建投資增長會有所加快。Infrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2duetothestrengtheningpolicysupport.In2023H1,accumulatedinfrastructureinvestmentincreasedby+10.7%YoY,whichwasatarelativelyhighlevel.Thegrowthrateofinfrastructureinvestmentmainlydependsontheeffortstostabilizetheeconomy.AccordingtothespiritofthePolitburomeeting,moreeffortswillbemadetostabilizetheeconomyin2023H2,withfasterissuanceanduseoflocalgovernmentspecial-purposebondsandgovernmentinvestmentplayagreaterrole.Therefore,thegrowthofInfrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtospeedup.n)CurrentyearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoY% InfrastructureInvestmentinasinglemonthYoY%Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23450004000035000300002500020000150001000050000SourcesWindCITICSF中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF11/2050 40 30 20 10 50 40 30 20 10 0-10-20-30-40-50預計下半年制造業投資增長小幅加快。上半年制造業投資累計同比增長6.0%，增速居中。上半年制造業利潤總額同比下降20%，不利于制造業投資增長。不過，政策積極支持制造業發展，6月末制造業中長期貸款余額同比增速高達40.3%，這有利于制造業投資增長。在政策的支持下，下半年制造業投資增長有望小幅加快。Itisexpectedthatthegrowthofinvestmentinmanufacturingindustrymayslightlyacceleratein2023H2.Theaccumulatedinvestmentinmanufacturingindustryincreasedby+6.0%YoYin2023H1,whichwasatamediumlevel.In2023H1,thetotalprofitofthemanufacturingindustrydownedby-20%YoY,whichisnotconducivetothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.However,policiesstronglysupportthedevelopmentofthemanufacturingindustry.BytheendofJune,theYoYgrowthrateofmid&long-termloanbalancestothemanufacturingindustrywasashighas+40.3%,whichisfavorabletothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.Withthesupportofpolicies,thegrowthofmanufacturinginvestmentwillmoderatelyquickenin2023H2.ingindustryYoYn圖表10：制造業中長期貸款與利潤增速(%)Outstandingmid&long-termloansandtotalprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY%CurrentyearcumulativeinvestmentinmanufacturingYoY ManufacturingindustryinvestmentinasinglemonthYoY30200-10-20-30-40Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Outstandingmid&long-termLoanstomanufacturingindustryYoY% CurrentyearcumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY%Dec-21Dec-22Dec-21Dec-22Dec-2012/20投資展望：房地產投資總體處于筑底階段，基建與制造業投資增長可能加快，下半年固定資產投資增長有望小幅加快。Tosummarize,therealestateinvestmentmaybebottomout,andthegrowthofinvestmentininfrastructureandmanufacturingmayaccelerate.Thegrowthoffixedassetsinvestmentisexpectedtomoderatelyimprovedin2023H2.3.消費Consumption二季度消費增速已經觸底，其中6月消費增速企穩回升。今年4、5、6月份，社費消費品零售總額分別兩年平均增長2.6%、2.5%、3.1%，四年平均增長3.5%、3.5%、4.0%，消費增速已經觸底并開始企穩回升。TheconsumptiongrowthinQ2hasalreadyhitthebottom,withthegrowthratereboundedmoderatelyinJune.FromApriltoJune,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswere+2.6%,+2.5%,and+3.1%,andthefour-yearaveragegrowthrateswere+3.5%,+3.5%,and+4.0%,respectively.Theconsumptiongrowthratehasstartedtorebound.圖表11：社會消費品零售總額的增速(%，剔除基數效應)TotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoY%ludingbaseeffectCommodityRetailandIncomeofCateringIndustryYoY%cludingbaseeffectRetailSalesYoY%(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.020.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0ratein2021and2023,respectively)Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23CommodityRetailYoY%IncomeofCateringIndustryYoY%(twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023,respectively)50-5-10-15-20-25-30Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSFresResearch13/20中國消費的修復過程尚未完成，下半年消費尤其是服務消費有望進一步恢復。相對于疫情前(2019年)，二季度社會消費品零售總額增長15.6%，遠低于居民收入29.4%的增速，反映消費仍存在較大的修復空間。其中，6月份商品零售與餐飲收入較2019年同期分別增長17.3%、13.6%，餐飲收入增速仍明顯低于商品零售，反映服務消費的修復明顯滯后。預計下半年中國消費尤其是服務消費進一步恢復。Therecoveryofconsumptionhasnotyetbeencompleted,andtheconsumption,especiallyserviceconsumption,isexpectedtofurtherrecoverin2023H2.Incomparisonwithpre-COVIDera(2019),theretailsalesofconsumergoodsraisedby+15%,13%lowerthanthegrowthrateofhouseholds’income,signifyingsomespaceforconsumptionrecovery.InJune,thegrowthrateoftheincomeofcateringindustrywas+13.6%comparedwithJune2019,whichwas3.7%lowerthanthatoftheretailsalesofcommodities,reflectingthattherecoveryofserviceconsumptionstilllagsbehind.ItisexpectedthatChinaconsumption,especiallyserviceconsumption,willfurtherrecoverin2023H2.下半年居民收入有望加快增長，這也將推動消費加快增長。居民收入主要取決于就業。二季度城鎮調查失業率為5.2%，比一季度低0.3個百分點，比去年四季度低0.4個百分點。二季度全國居民人均可支配收入四年平均增長6.7%，比一季度高0.3個百分點，比去年四季度的三年平均增速高0.9個百分點。Thegrowthofresidents'incomeisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2,whichwillalsodriveafasterconsumptiongrowth.Residents'incomemainlydependsonemployment.TheurbansurveyedunemploymentrateinQ2was5.2%,0.3%lowerthanQ1and0.4%lowerthan2022Q4.In2023Q2,thenationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentsgrewbyanaverageof6.7%overthepastfouryears,0.3%higherthanthefirstquarterand0.9%higherthanthethree-yearaveragegrowthratein2022Q4.14/20總體來看，在國內防疫政策優化之后，居民整體失業率趨于降低，而居民收入增長趨于加快。下半年國內服務消費繼續溫和修復，服務業就業將進一步增加，失業率可能小幅回落，居民收入增長或將小幅加快。Overall,aftertheoptimizationofdomesticepidemicpreventionpolicies,theunemploymentratetendstodecrease,whilethegrowthofresidents'incometendstoaccelerate.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,domesticserviceconsumptionwillcontinuetorecovermoderately,employmentintheserviceindustrywillfurtherincrease,unemploymentratemayslightlydecline,andresidentincomegrowthmayslightlyaccelerate.Thus,theconsumptionmaygrowatafasterpace.此外，下半年政策支持力度的加大也有助于消費加快增長。政治局會議要求下半年積極擴大消費。7月中旬，提振汽車、電子產品、家居等大宗消費的政策措施已經先后發布。未來存量房貸利率也可能適當下調，這將減少居民利息支出，有助于消費加快增長。Inaddition,theenhancingpolicysupportwillalsohelpaccelerateconsumptiongrowthin2023H2.Thepolitburomeetingdemandedeffortstoactivelyexpandconsumptiondemand.Inmid-July,thepoliciestoboosttheconsumptionofmajoritemsincludingautomobiles,electronicproductsandhouseholditemshavebeenreleased.Inthefuture,theinterestratesonexistinghousingloansmayalsobeappropriatelylowered,whichwillreduceresidents'interestexpensesandhelpaccelerateconsumptiongrowth.resResearch15/201284 0 -41284 0 -4 -8-12-16-20106.05.85.65.45.25.04.84.64.44.24.086420Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22圖表13：居民收入與消費增速(%，剔除基數效應)egrowthratesofResidentsIncomeandConsumption圖表14：居民收入增速與城鎮調查失業率(%)UnemploymentRateandthegrowthratesofIncomeCurrentyearaccumulativeResidentsIncomeYoY% CurrentyearaccumulativeRetailSalesYoY%(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23QuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoY%(two-year,three-year,four-yearaveragegrowthratein2021,2022and2023) QuarterlyUnemploymentRate%(rightaxis)資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF4.出口Export下半年中國外需可能小幅走弱，但低基數效應將推動出口同比增速回升。6月世界銀行上調2023年全球GDP增速預測0.4個百分點至2.1%；發達經濟體GDP預計同比增長0.7%，有望避免經濟衰退?？傮w來看，下半年全球經濟仍有韌性。China'sexternaldemandmayweakenslightlyin2023H2,buttheYoYgrowthrateofexportswillreboundduetothelowbaseeffect.TheWorldBankraised2023globalGDPgrowthprojectionby0.4%to+2.1%inJune,advancedeconomiesGDPisexpectedtogrowby+0.7%andmayavoideconomicrecession.Overall,globaleconomyisexpectedtostayresilient.下半年，許多經濟體仍需通過高利率抑制商品需求，進而控制通脹。特別是，美聯儲與歐央行可能繼續加息25-50BP。在這樣背景下，海外商品需求可能回落。由于加息接近尾聲，高利率對商品需求的抑制大體已經體現，中國外需的下滑幅度不會很大。考慮到低基數效應，中國出口同比增速或將回升。resResearch16/20Inthesecondhalf,manyoverseaseconomiesstillneedhighinterestratetocurbinflationandrestrictdemand.Inparticular,theUSFedandECBmightraiseinterestrateby25to50bp.Inthisbackground,overseasdemandmayweaken.However,astheinterestratehikesgraduallystop,theimpactofhighinterestratesoncommoditydemandhasgenerallybeenreflected,andthedeclineinChina’sexternaldemandwillnotbesignificant.Becauseofthelowbaseeffect,theYoYgrowthrateofChinaexportsmayreboundin2023H2.IGlobalManufacturePMIandChinaExportGrowthGlobalGDPActualandProjectedGrowth,%J.P.MorganglobalmanufacturingPMI(leftaxis) Export(USD)YoY%(two-yearaveragein2021)5856545250484644Feb-16Mar-17Apr-18May-19Jun-20Jul-21Aug-222460-6-12-18GDP同比:全球發達經濟體發展中國家GlobalGDPAEGDPYoY%EMGDPYoY%8 YoY%86420-2-4-6202020212022e2023f2024202020212022e2023f2024f資料來源：Wind中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF資料來源：世界銀行中信期貨研究所Sources:WorldITICSF5.GDPGrossDomesticProduct高增速主要因為低基數效應；兩年平均增速僅3.3%，明顯低于一季度4.6%的增速。Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofChinaGDPin2023Q2was3.3%,atarelativelylowlevel.TheYoYgrowthrateofGDPin2023Q2was6.3%,thehighlevelwasmainlyduetothelowbaseeffect;however,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratewasonly3.3%,1.3%lowerthan2023Q1.resResearch17/20GDP:當季同比QuarterlyGDPYoY%20.016.012.08.04.00.0-4.0-8.0Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22GDP第二產業第三產業SecondaryIndustryTertiaryIndustry10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.010.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0Dec-21Dec-22DecDec-21Dec-22Dec-19Dec-18資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:Wind,CITICSF根據估算，6月GDP兩年平均增速回升到4.0%左右。二季度GDP增長顯著放緩主要因為4-5月經濟顯著走弱。6月份以來穩增長政策開始適當加力。6月份工業增加值與服務業生產指數兩年平均增速分別回升至4.1%、4.0%，這意味著6月GDP兩年平均增速大體達到4.0%的水平，顯著高于二季度3.3%的增速。Byestimation,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPinJunereboundedtoaround4.0%.TheGDPgrowthdeacceleratedin2023Q2mainlyduetothesignificantweakeningoftheeconomyfromApriltoMay.SinceJune,thepoliciestostabilizeeconomicgrowthhavebeenappropriatelystrengthened.Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofValue-AddedofIndustriesandIndexofServiceProductioninJunereboundedto4.1%and4.0%,respectively.Thismeansthatthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPinJunereachedaround4.0%,significantlyhigherthanthegrowthrateof3.3%inthesecondquarter.在政策支持下，下半年中國GDP增長將加快，全年GDP目標應該可以實現。按照今年GDP增長5.0%左右預期目標，全年GDP兩年平均增速要達到4.0%。上半年GDP兩年平均增長4.0%。政策支持推動6月經濟企穩回升，GDP增速估計也接近目標。下半年政策繼續力度進一步加大，預計GDP增長將加快，全年GDP增速可以達成目標。resResearch18/20Withdomesticpoliciesappropriatelystrengthenedin2023H2,China'sGDPgrowthwillaccelerateinH2andtheannualGDPtargetshouldbeachievable.TheexpectedtargetYoYgrowthrateofGDPthisyearbyChinagovernmentisaround+5.0%,whichmeansthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPreaches4.0%.In2023H1,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPcoincidedwithsuchatarget.InJune,thesupportivepolicieshadboostedtheeconomyandthetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofGDPisestimatedtohavealsoreachedthetarget.In2023H2,thegovernmentwillmakemoreeffortstoimproveeconomygrowth.ItisexpectedthattheGDPgrowthwillacceleratein2023H2,andtheannualGDPgoalcanbeachieved.風險因素：國內經濟修復不及預期、海外經濟大幅走弱Risks:Chinaeconomicrecoverymisstheexpectation;Overseaseconomiesweakensignificantly.resResearch19/20司或商標所有權人的書面許可，任何單位或個人不得使用該商標、服務標區管轄范圍內，本報告內容或其適用與任何政府機構、監管機構、自構的法律、規則或規定內容相抵觸，或者中信期貨有限公司未被授權在當地務，那么本報告的內容并不意圖提供給這些地區的個人或組織，任何個人或查看或使用本報告。本報告所載的內容并非適用于所有國家或地區或者適用。此報告的內容不構成對任何人的投資建議，且中信以及數據的準確性、可靠性、時效性以及完整性不作任何信期貨有限公司不對因使用此報告及所載材料而造成的損合閣下。我們建議閣下如有任何疑問應咨詢獨立投資。resResearch20/20sclaimerUnlessother