第五章趨勢曲線模型預(yù)測法直線模型預(yù)測法多項(xiàng)式曲線模型預(yù)測法指數(shù)曲線模型預(yù)測法趨勢曲線模型預(yù)測法是長期趨勢預(yù)測的主要方法,它是根據(jù)時(shí)間序列的發(fā)展趨勢,配合合適的曲線模型,外推預(yù)測未來的趨勢值直線模型預(yù)測法直線預(yù)測模型為:直線預(yù)測模型的特點(diǎn):一階差分為一常數(shù)a,b值的確定方法:最小平方法或折扣最小平方法一粥最背小貪平童方港法∑拜（Y辮t喝―）驢2訊=最桑小行值∑真(Y掛t潑―)掏=共0Y港t代羽表感原谷數(shù)洞列寇的散觀冠察訓(xùn)值蛇；代挽表之模紫型嘉的焦估勤計(jì)笛值樂。根帥據(jù)揀最肆小失平湯方色法財(cái)?shù)陌阋h求仔，蹦即論：Q串=獸∑憲(榆Y個(gè)t氧-)割2扯=伙∑扣(企Y來t謝-背a掘-瓜b貓t講)夫2分洪別舍對(duì)a和b求鏈偏乳導(dǎo)真，遷并挖令郵其呈等躍于量零意。輔則預(yù)有遍：-擾2課∑炊（Y粗t解-夸a旋-余b生t趁）杜=斧0;-胸2膽∑脹(欣Y清t霉-另a各-社b傷t雷)臟t配=紗0整鮮理秋后迫可數(shù)求蟲出蒜：b刪=觸(去n腐∑輸t酒*細(xì)Y從t姻-如∑啄t聰∑偽Y劈燕t漂)梳/伍n煉∑平t敬2婦-麥(怒∑廳t貪)吼2a療=逗∑春Y饒t黑/眼n爛-驢b臥∑肥t導(dǎo)/利nb氧=周(鵝n墻∑株t齒*召Y呢t忍-尿∑沙t賄∑顆Y蛋t竟)淘/進(jìn)〔置n負(fù)∑霜t伶2傷-綠(帽∑對(duì)t萬)炸2紐奉〕a行=舒(擁∑皇Y亡t逮/何n小)涉-測(伸b友∑屋t妖/券n該)為叉簡畜化格計(jì)再算質(zhì),拾可騰取達(dá)時(shí)居間卡序雀列劑的份中程點(diǎn)同為牌時(shí)禿間送原此點(diǎn)牽,使∑宏t臨=孫0姐.當(dāng)漆序瘋列減為簡奇巾數(shù)街項(xiàng)夸時(shí)陸,t分扇別療為睜…決,浩-甩2胡,圣-革1胞,0叢,錄1資,勿2混,駛…踏;賭當(dāng)丈序乒列攜為監(jiān)偶鑒數(shù)娃項(xiàng)面時(shí)祝,t分亞別靜為瘡…釣-物5唱,色-錫3池,-妹1擾,刮1覆,雄3毫,幕5竹,改…例納:誓某秀市朵1熟9撇7盼8博－蔑－之1放9乎8偉6霸年敏化念纖回零坡售廣量危如衛(wèi)表棋,試荷預(yù)艦測所1背9逼8露7類年核化膜纖川零帶售啄量年分197819791980198119821983198419851986零售量265297333370405443474508541一階差分3236373538313433年份t1978-4265-106016264.521979-3297-8919299.391980-2333-6664334.261981-1370-3701369.131982040500404.00198314434431438.87198424749484473.741985350815249508.6119864541216416543.48Σ0363620926036362膠折握扣仗最債小乎平床方慘法折影扣襲最茂小維平豎方煩法隱:對(duì)傻誤高差硬平耽方跑進(jìn)熊行綢指沾數(shù)吊折縣扣比加螺權(quán)醫(yī)后重,是拾其鎮(zhèn)總氣和眾達(dá)圾到剃最集小懸的里方稱法怎.0累<邁α召<扮1年份tN-t1978126580.167844.46744.4670.16780.1678265.791979229770.209762.281124.560.41940.8388300.391980333360.262187.279261.840.78632.3589334.991981437050.3277121.249484.9961.31085.2432369.601982540540.4096165.888829.442.04810.24404.201983644330.512226.8161360.8963.07218.432438.801984747420.64303.362123.524.4831.36473.411985850810.8406.43251.206.451.2508.0119869541015414869981542.61Σ36364.331958.7413349.927.68200.843637.8多迅項(xiàng)誓式悉曲償線心模瞇型老預(yù)沾測灶法預(yù)壓測凈模嬌型二尤次善拋刻物渡線內(nèi)預(yù)供測征模迷型二另次妻拋頓物拘線侵預(yù)法測扒模盜型感的悠特貍點(diǎn)旁為只二軋階獨(dú)差愿分撈為誓一假常吵數(shù)三毀次扁拋測物戶線院預(yù)統(tǒng)測鵲模頃型苦為三厭次不拋刑物斗線金預(yù)謎測辣模悶型地的漿特張點(diǎn)辯是念三仿階珍差旅分盒為面一槍常畢數(shù)三昨次許和屋二師次意拋塌物豪線積預(yù)手測旦模逗型瓶的勉參警數(shù)錄,可堤用最通小封平筑方膚法舞,哀三隊(duì)點(diǎn)們法盡來棕估列計(jì)三浙點(diǎn)暑法三縮慧點(diǎn)元法間是聾用舞來漲估除計(jì)轉(zhuǎn)二再次礙拋薪物徑曲甚線慕預(yù)蒙測袍模鉤型若的懇參膚數(shù)種.基嗓本清思亡想炸:在凱二稿次步曲久線潛上竄選替取怠三右個(gè)歲點(diǎn)你來墾求驅(qū)模研型羞的痰三訴個(gè)椒估縱計(jì)且值馳.做哈法艷:當(dāng)圣時(shí)嚇間話序傻列流總巖項(xiàng)峰數(shù)N結(jié)>錢1告5時(shí)定,道在安序煤列請(qǐng)的折首趁尾久兩披端和謊正碼中蒙各跑取銷5拖項(xiàng)聰數(shù)親據(jù)梳,故求六出辱三委個(gè)筆加移權(quán)級(jí)平拍均奔數(shù)跳,寸權(quán)靜數(shù)由瓜遠(yuǎn)舌及重近字分啦別禽為獅1雅,殲2蒸,劑3歡,嘴4查,皮5質(zhì).診這卵三躁個(gè)接加旱權(quán)闖平件均券數(shù)粱就作碧為攀二令次沙拋幸物座線鋸上役三巧個(gè)訂點(diǎn)被的頸縱孩坐掏標(biāo)參.領(lǐng)9<n百<唐1著5時(shí)亦,取堆3聞項(xiàng)渠數(shù)演據(jù)益,桑求確出即三臘個(gè)族加肌權(quán)優(yōu)平遞均負(fù)數(shù)椅,裝權(quán)摸數(shù)禽由禿遠(yuǎn)麗及墨近分蛛別京為趙1石,野2裙,巖3慰.療為瓣保須持落這富三家個(gè)攀點(diǎn)青的催距恥離崇相饞等織,你數(shù)量列總姿數(shù)育應(yīng)辯為姿奇覺數(shù)監(jiān),蜜若沸是暗偶酒數(shù)雅,帆可慮刪盞去貨最駕早瞧期指的逐一博項(xiàng)藝.設(shè)限初繭,壁中全,蹤蝶近葉期訂三稀點(diǎn)郊的忌坐掃標(biāo)述為M祖1死(球t只1原,爬R聲)含,急M道2奧(熊t日2急,線S吧)嚼,綠M丸3直(識(shí)t斧3閃,汽T蕉)又似設(shè)n為殖數(shù)宴列近總鋪項(xiàng)獸數(shù)墊,頓且汪為炎奇檢數(shù)右.正鑄中胸項(xiàng)險(xiǎn):設(shè)齡各臨觀躺察閉值肥為獸:以倡上終三殖點(diǎn)流須編滿及足推二談次眠拋準(zhǔn)物至線疼預(yù)鞏測趣模愛型英,竿所冬以墳有殺:(宅五處項(xiàng)迅加裝權(quán)培平庭均船)(炸三胳項(xiàng)懲加跳權(quán)浴平信均熔)例慨:債某肺市密1緩9咐7泳8熟~隸1兇9很8攀6爛年乖某抱水挨產(chǎn)投品物收坊購舉量其如梁表需所益示預(yù)稅測惹1瓜9梢8商7婚年提某糞水映產(chǎn)潮品建的銷收卻購錫量年份197819791980198119821983198419851986收購量54.564.176.492.3110.7132.2156.8183.6214.0一階差分9.612.315.918.421.524.626.830.4二階差分2.73.62.53.13.12.23.6指皂數(shù)遲曲碗線批模竹型淚預(yù)矛測歡法指規(guī)數(shù)瘡曲壁線蓬預(yù)招測朗模濁型今的社特似點(diǎn)結(jié),朵環(huán)筒比黎發(fā)桂展子速肆度頂為歷一嚴(yán)常異數(shù)最脅小阿平柿方北法普,朽三闖點(diǎn)浸法張來顫估寄計(jì)一旁最氣小射平慕方芽法B益=惠(存n般∑過t幅*劑Y敗-啦∑哭t堂∑監(jiān)Y秀)佩/追〔其n哲∑喪t窩2恰-倘(繼∑申t煉)疤2萬〕A嗚=嶺(架∑賺Y洪/穩(wěn)n撲)億-卸(茂B戚∑嘴t巖/究n凳)B驢=呢(周∑覆t掉*的Y瞞/文∑死t位2A瘦=魄(麻∑由Y評(píng)/皺n炕)例尋:垂某量市捐1理9第7明8貼～瓣1網(wǎng)9頃8勁9戀年歐居雹民羽儲(chǔ)莖蓄間存謙款渾余快額喉如耕表格.預(yù)州測邊1狐9喉9找0啊年驅(qū)該惰市狂居辦民驕儲(chǔ)校蓄悟存燭款補(bǔ)余籮額年份年次儲(chǔ)蓄額環(huán)比發(fā)展速度1978-115.67-----0.75121-8.295.391979-97.09125.040.8581-7.667.181980-79.56134.840.9849-6.869.571981-513.07136.721.1225-5.5812.751982-316.75128.161.229-3.6717.001983-121.62129.071.331-1.3322.651984128.34131.081.4511.4530.181985339.86140.651.6094.8040.231986554.16135.881.73258.6753.611987774.84138.181.874913.1271.441988994.38126.111.978117.7795.20198911129.94137.682.1112123.25126.87Σ17.0157235.67三類點(diǎn)祥法N大核于薪等蹲于背1社0N小題于鮮1方0例墳:己某凳市毀1秀9日7襖8皺～奸1作9芽8量9伸年朽居李民僚儲(chǔ)樂蓄迅存急款哥余下額廢如堵表難.預(yù)閉測付1循9杯9岔0楊年板該根市煮居足民錄儲(chǔ)若蓄勻存菊款庭余艦額年份年次儲(chǔ)蓄額環(huán)比發(fā)展速度權(quán)數(shù)ww197815.67-----0.7510.7545.379197927.09125.040.8521.7017.181198039.56134.840.9832.9419.5881981413.07136.721.1244.46512.8011982516.75128.161.2256.12017.0911983621.62129.071.33小計(jì)15.98122.8181984728.34131.081.4530.4651985839.86140.651.6011.60140.6731986954.16135.881.7323.46754.30319871074.84138.181.8735.62272.500