案例1.國際關系中的“層次分析法”Case20.Thelevel-of-analysisininternationalRelationsAsatoolofstudyinginternationalpolitics,thelevel-of-analysisapproachaimsto“takeapicturesfromdifferentdistances”1,butitdoesnotprescribethenumberoflevelsorhowtodifferentiatelevels.Researcherscanmaketheirowndecisionaccordingtherealityoftheobjectsbeingstudied:onelevel,twolevelsorevenmulti-level.ItisgenerallythoughtthatKennethWaltz,theConstructivistrealist,startedthelevelofanalysisapproach.2InhisbookMan,theStateandWarwritteninthe1950s,heusesathree-foldtypologytoanalyzetheoriginofwar.Heregardsthethree-foldtypologyasthree“images”ofinternationalrelations:humannature,theinternalsocietyofthenationstateandthestructureoftheinternationalsystem.Inhisview,theanarchyofinternationalpolitics(thethirdimage)explainsthecauseofwaringeneralbutdoesnotexplainaspecificwar.Althoughtheothertwoimagesareforcesthatdeterminepolicyandcanexplaintherealreasonbehindaspecificwar,howeverwithoutthethirdimage(theinternationalpoliticalframework),theirimportanceoroutcomecannotbedetermined.3TheconclusionofWaltzshowsthataspecificcaseofinternationalrelationsisofteninfluencedbythecommonforceofvariablesatthemicroandmacrolevels.Ifthesevariablesareselectedas“levels”(images)andanalyzed,theresearchframeworkbecomesclearandrich.Thethree-foldapproachofWaltzhasthusbecomethemostfrequentlyusedlevel-of-analysis.Forexample,whenanalyzingtheoriginoftheColdWar,MarcA.Genestexaminedtheinternationalsystematthattime,states(theUSandtheSovietUnion)andstateleaders(theUSPresidentTrumanandSovietleaderStalin).HethinksthattheColdWarhappenedprimarilybecauseoftheturmoilintheinternationalsituationafterthewars.TheformerpowersweremostlynolongersowhileonlytheUSandtheSovietUnionwerethestrongestandinfactformedthepost-warinternationalsystemdominatedbythetwosuperpowers.Moreover,thedemocraticAmericaandthecommunistSovietUnionhadtotallydifferentpolitico-economicstructureswhichunderlaytotheirconflict.Asforindividuals,TrumanandStalinhaddeepdistrustofeachother.Differencesbetweenthetwopartiesunavoidablyledtocompetitionwhichinturnhighlightedthosedifferencesandmadebothleadersmorefrightenedandguarded.4Undoubtedly,thelevel-of-analysisapproachofWaltzisofgreatsignificance.ButitisAmericanpoliticalscientistDavidSingerwhodiscussedthelevel-of-analysisapproachaspartofthemethodologyofinternationalrelations.5MarcA.Genest,ConflictAndCooperation:EvolutionTheoriesofInternationalRelations,p.3.Ibid.IverB.Neumann,OleWaever(eds.),TheFutureofInternationalRelations:MastersintheMaking(trans.XiaoFeng,ShiQuan,Beijing:PekingUniversityPress,2003),p.97.MarcA.Genest,ConflictAndCooperation,p.5.QinYaqing,“CengciFenxifayuGuojiGuanxiYanjiu,”[LevelofAnalysisandInternationalRelationsResearch]Ouzhou[ChineseJournalofEuropeanStudies],1998(3),p.5.InhisfamousTheLevel-of-AnalysisProbleminInternationalRelations,heraisedtwomainlevels:theinternationalsystemandthestate.Hethoughtthatastate'sforeignpolicyisaffectedbythesetwolevels:Theinternationalsystemlevelonamacrolevelshowstheinternationalrelationsasawhole,thatis,theoverallglobalpatternsofbehavioramongstatesandthelevelofinterdependenceamongthem.Thenation-statelevelonamicrolevelreflectsconditionsandprocesseswithinstatesthataffectforeignpolicychoices.6Singercomparedthetwowithflowersandgarden,rocksandquarry,treesandforest,housesandneighborhood,carsandtrafficjam,delinquentsandgang,legislatorsandlegislature?AfterSinger,researchersfurtherdevelopedthelevelofanalysisapproach.ThereappearedJamesRosenau'sfive-foldanalysis(individual,role,government,society,andtheinternationalsystem),BruceRucsettandHarveyStar'ssix-foldanalysis(individualdecision-makers,roleofdecision-makers,structuralofthenationalgovernment,domesticsociety,internationalrelations,worldsystem).8Althoughthelevelofanalysisapproachisgettingmoreandmoredetailedandsystematic,howmanylevelsareappropriatedependsonthenatureoftheobjectofinterest.System-levelState-level4ThenatureoftheworldHowcountriesIndividual-level*J[[limancharacteristicsmakeforeignpolicy【教學目的】本案例旨在使學生掌握一種觀察和解讀國際問題的基本方法，通過歸納不同層面上的要素，條理清晰、步步深入地分析某個具體的國際關系案例。【思考題】你覺得要解釋清楚一個國際關系事件，一般需要使用幾個層次？如何用層次分析法解釋伊