FutureorFantasy?Whatwillourworldbelikeinthefuture?Canwelookaheadtwentyfiveyearsanddreamaboutthetransformationsthatwilltakeplace?Thescholarswhomakeittheirbusinesstotrytopredictthefuturearenotallinagreementaboutwhatthefutureholds.IfyouvisitdisplaysatplaceslikeDisneyworld,youcangetaglimpseofwhatsomeofthepredictionsareforourlives.Aswefantasize(幻想)aboutwhatourlifemightbelikeafewdecadesfromnow,wecanspeculateaboutdifferentaspectsofourlives.PersonalClothingstyleschangefromyeartoyearandalsofromculturetoculture.Doyouthinkthatwewillhavesleevesinourshirtsandblouses?Willwewearsockstoprotectourfeet?Willplasticglovesbeusedroutinelyaspartofeverydaylifetoavoidtransmissionofgerms(細菌)?Willwestillusebuttonstofastenourclothing?Willweallwearthesamekindofjeansorpants(likeauniform)orwilleachculturebedifferent?Whattextileswillbeusedinmanufacturingourclothing?Willatypeofnylonfabricbeusedinanefforttomakeourclothingmoredurable?Syntheticfiberswhichwillnotfadecanbeproducedinbrightcolorssuchaspinkandpurpleinadditiontoalltheothercolorsoftherainbow.Whenitcomestomattersofpersonalcleanliness,willwesoakinabath?Willwesprayourselveswithwaterorsomeothersubstanceinashower?Willwehaveachoiceofwhichtouse?Willwegotovisitabarberforahaircutorwillwebeabletocontrolthegrowthofourhair?Ifgrowthofabeardcouldbeslowed,thedailyritual(老規矩)ofshavingwouldbeunnecessaryformen.HealthInthewesternworldthenumberofpeoplewhosmokecigarsorcigaretteshasdiminished(減少,遞減)substantiallyinthelastseveralyears.Maybetheuseoftobaccowillbeeliminatedcompletely.Willwebeabletohealillnessesanddiseasesassoonasthesymptomsareidentified?Acureforcancerwouldbeconsideredamiracle.Couldthediseasebeconqueredwithadequatecommitmentoffederalfundstofurnishfinancialresources?Accomplishmentofthisprojectwouldbeatriumphofenormousproportions.ItwouldbeequivalenttosendingseveralrocketstoMarssimultaneously(同時).Itwouldimprovethewelfareofallhumanity(人類).Insteadofusingathermometertotakeourtemperature,maybewewillhavesensors(傳感器)implantedinourbodiesthatwillbereadbyapersonalhealthcaremonitor.Themachinecouldtellusifweareinneedofmoreoxygeninourbloodorifthefoodwejustateindifficulttodigestbecauseoftoomuchacidinourstomachs.Willanappointmentwithadoctorbeautomaticifweareinneedoftreatmentorwillthatprofessionbecomeobsolete(消亡的)?Themonitormightalsohavetheabilitytoprescribealifestyleprogramforus.Awomanmightbeabletodetermineifsheispregnantfromtheuseofthismachine.Aremedyforasorelimbmightbeverifiedifthepersonisuncertainhowtotreatit.Asorethroat,acoughorastiffneckmightalsobediagnosedandtreatmentprescribed.Tensioninpartsofourbodycanbecausedbystressandprecautionsandpreventative(預防性的)stepscouldberecommended.Amachinemightbeusedfortheadministrationofmedicineaswell.Couldyouadjusttotheideaofhavinganinjectiongiventoyoubyarobotusinganeedle?Infact,theprecisedosagemightbeeasiertoattainusingthismethod.Itseemslogicaltomakeuseofequipmentthatevaluatesymptomsandinterpretdataiftheperformanceprovesreliable.Criticalillnessescouldbediagnosedearlierandwecouldbeconfidentthateventhediagnosisofacomplexdiseasecouldbeclarifiedandthediseasecouldbetreatedbeforeitbecomesfatal.

Supposingalife-threateningviruscouldbecontrolled,byinferenceviruseswouldnolongerconstituteathreattoourwell-being.Theconceptorideaofpeoplelivingtoanextremelyoldagehasbeensuggested.Willtheconsequenceofthatpossibilitybethatpeoplecouldalsomaintaintheirintellectastheyage?Willpeoplebeabletomakearrangementstohavetheirbodyoritspartsusedaftertheydie?Thedonationwouldhelpotherstohavesomeoftheirbodypartsreplaced.Willpeoplestillhavefuneralsandbeburiedinagraveasisthecurrentcustomorwillcremation(火葬)bethecommonpractice?Ifwewearcorrectivelensesnow,perhapsourvisioncouldbeimprovedorrestoredthroughlasersurgery.Wewouldnolongerneedtowearglasses.Thetragedyofastrokeandtheresultingmentaldisability(傷殘,殘疾)couldbepreventedifamonitorcouldanalyzetheperson’sconditionandrecommendchangesinlifestyleortreatmentthatcouldavert(預防)astrokeoraheartattack.Anambulanceequippedwithsophisticatedportablemedicaldiagnosticequipmentcouldhavetheabilitytoassessmultipleinjuriesofthevictimofanaccident.Recoverywouldbeassistedbytheprovisionofprompttreatment.Theprospectofajointthatswells,beingtreatedbyarestraintthatcauseslackofmotion,isnotanewidea,butwillasyntheticjointbeusedtoreplacethejointinsteadofbeingtreatedinthecurrentfamiliarway?Willreplacementofahipjointbecomemorecommonplace?Couldadoctoroperateononeofourorganswithouthavingtoinvadeourbodies?Couldsurgerybeperformedwiththeaidofasmallthatitwouldbemeasuredinmillimeters?Theopeningrequiredtoinsertthecameraintoourbodywouldbetiny.Couldamicroscopebeusedinthestudyofbiologytowatchthedevelopmentofaspecimenofsyntheticbacteriaandthenthespecimenisusedtocreateatreatmentforthediseasebeingstudied?FoodOurdietmightcontaincomeofthesamefoodsthatweeatnow.Willwestilluseflourtomakealoafofbread?Maybetherewillbewaystopreserveourfoodsothatbreadnevergoesstale.Willwestilleatcommonfoodcombinationssuchasliverandonions?Willourfavoritemealberoastbeeforsausageandbecookedwithcabbage?Willatypicalbreakfastmenuincludetoastandjam?Maybewewillhaveasubstituteforbutterwhichtastesgood.Foodmightnotbepurchasedfromagrocerorfromasupermarket.Instead,ascustomers,wemightorderourfood,usingtheinternetandhaveitdeliveredtoourresidences.Maybeanautomaticrecorderwouldbeplacedwhenfoodisremovedfromarefrigerator.Preparationoffoodmightbeeliminatedbutbecausepeopleenjoyeating,maybetherewillbetheoptionofnourishingourbodiesthroughfoodorusingsomeothermeans.Perhapsaseriesofpillswillprovideadequatenourishment.Fruitssuchasgrapes,peachesorpearsmightstillbeavailableinseveralformssuchasfrozenordriedforourconsumption.Candywouldbedifficulttogiveupforanyonewhoenjoyseatingsweets.Piefordessertisafavoritewithsomepeopleandmaybeawaywillbefoundtoproduceapiethattastesgoodandyetwillbeahealthyfoodforustoeat.Ahotbowlofsoupnotonlynourishesbutalsocomfortspeopleandwewouldnotwanttorelinquish(放棄)that.Proteinsourcesthathavenotbeenusedbeforewillbecomeevident.Provisionofahamandcheesesandwichforlunchmightbeavailablethroughaspecialappliancethattakesourfoodorderandpreparesthefoodanddeliversittous.Ice-creamcouldbemade,withtheoptionofusingeitherartificialsweetenerorsugar.Willwefryfoodslikebaconandsteakorwillwebeabletocookthembyothermeans?Wecouldcombinefoodssuchaspeasandcarrotswithgarlictogainanabundantsupplyofvitaminsfromonedish.HouseholdWhatkindofaccommodationswillweenjoy?Weareusedtohavingmorethanadequatehousingsowewouldnotenjoyhavingtoconverttoasmallerresidence.Theaccesstoourhomesmightbecontrolledforsecurityreasons.Ourentrymightbegainedbyhavingacomputerreadourfingerprint(指紋)toseeifitwillcorrespondtodetectiftherightpersonistryingtoentertheresidence.Somesuggestionsarethatitwouldbebettertousetheprintofathumbsothethumbprintwouldbeusedinsteadofafingerprint.Bothareapossibility.Ourgarbagewillbeputinagarbagedisposalunitthatwilleliminatetheneedfortrashcollection.Lightbulbswillseldomneedtobereplaced,astheywillbemadetolastaminimumoffiveandamaximumoftenyears.Todecorateourhomes,wemightjustgiveadescriptionofwhatwewantandhaveitcompletedbyaninteriordecorator(裝修工)withlittleinteractionrequiredfromus.Wecouldhaveourchoiceofbackgroundmusicplayedthroughoutthehouse,orvariedfromroomtoroom.Wemighthearasymphony(交響樂)orchestrainoneroomandjazzinanother.Willwehavetheluxuryofhavingamaiddoourcleaningorwillthatbeunnecessary,asourhomewillbecomeself-cleaning?Willweusesoapandwatertodoourlaundryorwillanothermethodthatisfriendlytotheenvironmentbedeveloped?Willweuseafurnacetoheatourhomeorwillwecontrolthemicroclimateindoorsbytheuseofsolarpower?Forpeoplewholiveinahomeinthesuburbswillthetediouschore(家庭雜務)ofmowing(割草)thelawnbeaccomplishedinanefficientwaybyaroboticmower?Willweedsinourgrassmerelyvanishasthemoweremitsatimereleasechemicaltodestroythem?TransportationWillwefloatoverhighwaysordriveontheroadsurfaceaswedonow?Willthecostofagallonoffuelstillbeourconcern?Whatwillourvehicleslooklike?Willtheprofileofourautomobileslookliketheshapeofspaceageaircraft?Willthenotionofusingpainttoprotectthecar’sexteriorbeobsolete?Perhapsthecoatingonthecarwillgiveadurableshineandwewillnevertowaxorpolishit.Whatkindofbatterywillweusetopowerourcar?Willwestillhaveamechanicrepairourcarataservicegarageorwillrobotsthatarecomputerized(用計算機處理)doit?Willthemotorbepoweredbyanewkindofpetroleumproductorbyhydrogen?Willthecarsstillbeequippedwithhornsasawarningsignalorwillanewdevicebeavailable?Willtherebeagauge(測量儀表)towarnusifourspeedistoofastorwillradarbeusedtoguidethecarsothatdrivererrorisnolongeraconcern?ElectronicsWillwebeabletoplayanymusicalinstrumentsuchasaguitareasilywithaprocessthemachineteachesus?Willothermedia,suchasmovies,beinteractive?Willwehaveaccesstoopticaldiscsthatcanbeplayedbylaser?Digitalimageswillmorecloselyimitatereality.Theywillbesorealisticthatitwillbevirtuallyimpossibletotellthemfromtherealthing.Ourenjoymentofwatchingavideowillbeenhancedbythequalityoftheimages.Willwehaveequipmentcapableofmanipulatingideas,eliminatingtheneedforjournaliststowriteandeditthenews?Willcomputersoftwarebeavailabletomodifywhatwetypesothatourerrorsarecorrectedautomatically?Willcomputerhardwareincludemassiveamountsofmemorythatwillallowustofileanenormousamountofmaterial?Willwebeinthehabitofcarryingasmalldevicewithusthatcanbeusedasacellphone,afax,amicrophoneandaninternetconnection?SummaryLookattheworldaroundyouandconsidersomeoftheconceptsdiscussedinthisdocument.Carefulobservationwillleadyoutotheconclusionthatmanyofthesethingshavealreadyhappened.Iurgeyoutorereadeachparagraphofthisarticletoseeifperhapstheyareallthingsthatareavailablesomewhereintheworldcurrently.Ifthatisthecase,thenyouwillagreethatthefutureisnow!遠景還是幻想？我們的世界未來會是什么樣？我們能預測未來的25年并設想將會發生什么變化嗎？未來到底有些什么特征，以預測未來為職業的學者們意見也并非一致。如果你到像迪斯尼世界這樣的地方去觀賞一下，就會得到一些關于對我們生活的一種大體的預測。當我們幻想從現在開始幾十年后我們的生活會是什么樣子時，我們會推斷出我們生活的各個方面。[個人生活]服裝式樣年年在變，一種文化習俗與另一種文化習俗之間也各不相同。你認為我們的襯衣和上衣還會有袖子嗎？我們還會穿襪子保護我們的腳嗎？在日常生活中我們會使用塑膠手套來避免細菌的傳播嗎？我們還會用扣子來固定我們的衣服嗎？我們都穿同樣的牛仔褲或短褲(像制服一樣)，還是有各種不同的文化品位？什么樣的紡織品會用來做我們的服裝？是否會有一種更耐用的尼龍布？不褪色的合成纖維會以粉紅色和紫色等各種鮮艷的色彩制造出來，而且是和彩虹的各種顏色一起吧。在涉及到個人衛生方面，我們還會泡在浴缸里嗎？我們會在淋浴時噴水還是一些其他物質？我們有使用的選擇嗎？我們還會去理發店理發或者我們能控制頭發的生長？如果胡須的生長速度可以減慢，那男人就無須按老規矩天天刮胡子了。[保健]在西方近幾年抽雪茄和香煙的人數已明顯下降。也許，煙草的消費會完全消亡。我們能夠一發現癥狀就治愈這一疾病、解除疾病嗎？治愈癌癥被認為是一個奇跡。在有專項聯邦基金保證財力的情況下，能夠戰勝這種疾病嗎？這項工程的完成將是一個巨大的成功，這相當于同時向火星發射幾枚火箭。這將造福于全人類。我們也許會帶有植入體內的傳感器，可以由個人健康檢測器據此讀出數據，無需用體溫計來測量我們的體溫。儀器會告訴我們是否需要在血液里增加氧氣，是否由于胃酸過多而使我們剛吃的食物難于消化。如果我們需要治療就會自動找醫生，還是醫生這個職業會消失？檢測器可能有能力為我們設計生命程序。女人或許能夠使用這種儀器確定是否懷孕。如果一個人不知道如何治療肢體疼痛，通過儀器可找到對它的治療方法。喉嚨痛、咳嗽或斜頸也可能診斷出來并指出治療方法。由于壓力導致身體某部分緊張，其預防步驟也可以推薦給你。機器可能會用于藥品管理上。你能夠接受一個機器人用針管對你進行注射嗎？事實上使用這種方法更容易獲得精確的劑量。如果證明性能可靠，使用儀器來評價癥狀、解讀數據，看來是可行的。危險病癥能夠較早地診斷出來。我們相信即使對一個復雜病癥的診斷也能夠做到清楚明了，準確無誤，并在它變得致使以前對其進行治療。假如一種致使的病毒能夠得到控制，可以推測，病毒將不再對我們的健康產生威脅。人們會活得很長的概念或觀點已經被提出來了。這種可能性能夠表明人上了年紀后，智力依然保持嗎？人們能夠達成協議，在他們死后使用他們的身體或身體的某一部分嗎？這些捐獻將幫助他人移植身體的某些器官。人們還會像現在的傳統那樣舉行葬禮，埋進墳墓里，或者火葬會更普遍嗎？如果我們現在帶上矯正鏡，或通過激光手術我們的視力就會改善或恢復。我們將不再需要帶眼鏡了。如果監控器能夠分析出人的健康狀況，并且建議改變可能導致中風或心臟病發作的生活方式，提出避免中風和心臟病發作的治療方法，中風這樣的不幸及其引發的智力障礙就可以預防。一輛配備有精密便攜式醫療診斷設備的救護車能診斷出事故受害者的多種傷勢。而及時進行的處理有助于傷者的康復。治療關節腫痛的前景不是一個什么新的觀念，用抑制病痛的辦法治療會導致暫時無法活動，那么會使用合成關節取代我們現在流行的處理方法嗎？更換髖關節會變得很平常嗎？醫生能夠不觸及人體就能對某個器官動手術嗎？手術能夠借助小型照相機進行嗎？照相機鏡頭的直徑可能小到毫米以下嗎？那樣，需要將照相機送入人體體內的武器將會非常小。顯微鏡會用于生物學研究來觀察合成細菌標本的培育，然后將標本用于制造出一種與所研究的疾病有關的治療方法嗎？[食物]我們的食譜可能包括我們今天正在吃的某些食物。我們還會用面粉做面包嗎？也許，會有防止我們的食物變質的辦法來使面包保持原味。我們還會吃像肝和洋蔥這樣的普通混合食物嗎？我們最喜歡的飯會是烤牛肉或香腸和卷心菜一起煮嗎？典型的早餐會包括土司和果醬嗎？也許我們會有替代黃油的美味食品。食品不需要從雜貨店或超級商場購買。取而代之的是，