1、The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing定價的策略和戰術7/7/20221The Cost-Plus Delusion加成定價法的謬誤Financial prudence出于財務謹慎的考慮How to determine mark-up? 如何決定加成比例?Overpricing in weak markets and under-pricing in strong markets 在疲軟市場的過高定價和在強勁市場的過低定價7/7/20222Value By Customers消費者認定的價值Affordable but sufficiently sporty c

2、ar 消費者需要既買得起又瀟灑漂亮的跑車In 1964, Ford met the challenge with its Mustang, at a base price of $2,368. 1964年福特推出定價為2368美元的Mustang車來迎接這項挑戰Net profits of $1.1 Billion, in 1964 dollars, in just the first two years 在最初的兩年間凈利達11億美元7/7/20223Developing an Effective Pricing Strategy設定有效的訂價策略customers willingness

3、to pay for the good or service 消費者的購買意愿cost of providing the good or service 生產成本degree of competition 競爭程度7/7/20224Demand Curve, I需求曲線02.5057.50101472demand curve需求曲線Quantity (hamburgers a day)數量(漢堡包每天)Price ($per humburger)價格(美元每個漢堡包)7/7/20225Demand Curve, II需求曲線the maximum price the consumer is w

4、illing to pay / marginal benefit 顧客愿意支付的最高價格/邊際利益the more the less desirable / diminishing marginal benefit 越多就越不熱切/邊際利益遞減7/7/20226Demand and Income需求和收入Normal / inferior products 正常/劣等品International and regional business 國際和區域業務expected income 期望收入Irrational exuberance in U.S in the 1990s. 美國90年代末：

5、非理性旺盛Deflation in Japan in the past decade 日本最近十幾年：通貨緊縮7/7/20227Foe or Friend是互替還是互補Prices of related products 相關產品的價格Substitutes: chicken/beef, video/movie 替代品: 雞/牛肉, 錄像/電影Complements: meat/wine, movie/popcorn 互補品: 肉食/葡萄酒, 電影/爆米花7/7/20228How to secure complements?怎樣得到互補品的支持?Dan Ryan & UA Pacific Pl

6、ace 香港太古廣場的電影院和芝加哥風味的餐廳Pepsi, AOL 百事可樂, 美國在線PCCW, Softbank 香港電訊盈科，日本軟銀HK Disneyland 香港迪斯尼樂園7/7/20229Demand for Durable Goods耐用品的需求Expectation about future prices and income 對未來價格和收入的期望Financing costs 融資成本Prices of used models 二手貨的價格future value of new good 代表新貨物的未來價值substitute for new good 新舊貨物的替代關系

7、7/7/202210Factors influencing market demand: 影響市場需求的因素Income level and distribution 收入高低和分布Population and demographics 人口多少及構成 Market saturation 市場滲透率Network externality 外部效用7/7/202211收入, 成本, 和利潤7/7/202212利潤最大化的條件7/7/202213最優定價Operate at scale where marginal revenue = marginal cost 邊際收入 = 邊際成本的規模Equ

8、ivalently, set the incremental margin percentage equal to the inverse of absolute value of price elasticity of demand, 設邊際毛利率等于需求價格彈性的倒數(price - MC) / price = -1/e7/7/202214自身價格彈性 Own-Price Elasticity定義: 1% 的價格增長所引起的需求的變化量自身價格彈性 =7/7/202215Price Elasticity: Determinants價格彈性: 決定因素availability of dire

9、ct or indirect substitutes 直接或間接替代品的多少Perceived substitutes effect (Woolite) 被認為的替代效應Unique value effect (Heinz ketchup) 獨特的價值Difficult comparison effect (brand name products) 不可比較效應(名牌產品)Price-quality effect (doctors, lawyers) 價格質量效應(醫生,律師)Inventory effect (canned tomatoes, diapers) 庫存效應(罐裝西紅柿, 紙尿片

10、)7/7/202216More on Determinants of Price Elasticity 再談價格彈性的決定因素cost / benefit of economizing 尋找替代品的成本及收益Expenditure effect (engine oil) 費用效應(引擎油)End-benefit effect (Baby and Michelin) 終端利益效應（米其林和嬰兒）buyers prior commitments 買方是否有事前的投入separation of buyer and payee 購買者和付款者的分離7/7/202217Advantage 競爭優勢198

11、1: American Airlines pioneered frequent flyer program 1981年: 美國航空公司推出里程優惠計劃 buyer commitment 購買者事前投入 business executives fly at the expense of others 公差7/7/202218Demand Elasticity Under Optimal Pricing最優定價下的需求彈性always set price so that demand is elastic 總是設立價格, 使需求具有彈性if demand more elastic, then lo

12、wer incremental margin percentage (IM%) 如果需求彈性較大,邊際毛利率就低(IM%) e = -1.5 IM% = 2/3 e = -2 IM% = 1/27/7/202219Pricing Movies電影票的定價Tuesday Movies 星期二電影Price decreased from $60 to $30 價格從60港幣降到30港幣Number of tickets increased by 217% 票房上升了217%Revenue for Tuesdays ？ 星期二的營業額是否增加？What about other weekdays an

13、d weekends? 其它周日和周末的營業額?7/7/202220摩爾(Moores)法則和計算機成本技術進步固定成本增加邊際成本減少(單位計算能力的成本)7/7/202221Relevant Marginal Costs for Pricing 相關的邊際成本consider only relevant costs and ignore all other costs 僅考慮相關的成本, 不考慮其它的成本relevant costs may be hidden 相關成本往往被傳統損益表忽略irrelevant costs may be shown in accounts 不相關成本則可能出

14、現在傳統損益表7/7/202222Wing On Group, 1993永安集團, 1993Revenue 收入HK$2,236 millionExpenses 成本HK$2,210 millionProfit 利潤HK$ 26 millionOpportunity cost機會成本HK$ 53 million7/7/202223Shanghai Petrochemical, 1994上海石化，1994Profit: 1.78 billion yuan利潤: 17.8億人民幣The company received 4.5 million metric tons of crude at a g

15、overnment-controlled price of 689 yuan (as compared to free-market price of 1100 yuan), the opportunity cost of which is 1.85 billion yuan.公司獲得450萬噸政府補貼的原油, 機會成本為18.5億人民幣。7/7/202224Opportunity Cost 機會成本definition - net revenue from best alternative course of action 定義：所有被放棄的可能方案中能帶來的最大凈收益。 7/7/20222

16、5Debt to Equity 債轉股Investment by the Singaporean government in a petrochemical plant in the 1980s80年代新加坡政府對石化企業的貸款Stated-owned enterprises in China中國國有企業7/7/202226Economic Value Added經濟附加價值任何融資都有成本：借貸要付息, 股權要回報EVA = revenue - all costs (including cost of equity capital) 經濟附加價值=收入-所有成本(包括資本金的成本)7/7/2

17、02227Apple Computer 蘋果計算機1988年夏: 蘋果用每芯片38美元共計幾億美元的代價購買 1Megabit 的DRAM晶片1989年元月: 市場價格跌到23美元; 為給Machitosh定價, 1 Megabit的DRAM庫存該是多少成本呢?7/7/202228Sunk Cost沉沒成本定義：已經或承諾支出、無法挽回的成本先前的承諾計劃期的長短7/7/202229A Common Excuse不敵外來競爭的共同借口：需承擔大量退休員工的福利Japanese car manufacturers vis-vis the U.S. auto makers美日汽車公司之間的競爭St

18、ated-owned enterprises versus foreign-invested companies in China中國國企與外資企業之間的競爭7/7/202230DaimlerChrysler: 合并能節省多少?2000十一月: 第三季度報告虧損1999-2002,美國汽車工會協議 無論如何，必須支付合同工資的95% 最初42星期, 由州失業基金會資助7/7/202231廣告支出廣告的益處提高需求advertising elasticity = % increase in demand from 1% increase in advertising 廣告的彈性 = 每增加1%的

19、廣告支出所導致的需求增加的百分數7/7/202232Advertising Elasticities廣告彈性7/7/202233 利潤最大化的廣告支出Profit-maximizing advertising/sales = incremental margin x advertising elasticity利潤最大化的廣告支出/銷售量= 邊際毛利 X 廣告彈性 incremental margin = (price - MC)邊際毛利= 價格 - 邊際成本7/7/202234Prozac 再普樂: 廣告支出Competition from generics would普藥帶來的競爭會導致r

20、educe incremental margin 邊際毛利減少raise advertising elasticity 廣告彈性增加7/7/2022351999年2月, 英特爾 (Intel) 英特爾發行奔騰III (Pentium-III)定價高，即邊際毛利大與AMD的新K6-III芯片競爭，即廣告彈性大 英特爾(Intel)加倍廣告支出, 達到3億美元7/7/202236Uniform Pricing: Shortcomings 單一訂價策略的缺點leaves buyers with a lot of surplus 給購買者留下很多剩余does not sell to every pot

21、ential buyer 并沒有出售給每個潛在的購買者7/7/202237Complete Price Discrimination完全價格歧視price each unit at buyers benefit and sell quantity where MB = MC 每單位的價格訂為購買者的邊際利益；賣到邊際利益等于邊際成本maximum profit (利潤最大化)different from MR = MC (與MR=MC不同)implementation: must know entire marginal benefit and marginal cost curves 實施:

22、 必須知道整個邊際利益和邊際成本的曲線7/7/202238Hysterectomy in Hong Kong香港的子宮切除術price ranging from HK$20,000 to HK$200,000 even for same operation and treatment 同樣的手術，但價格卻從港幣2萬元到20萬元不等.charging patients according to their means as a HK “ tradition” (Dr. Leong Che-hung, SCMP, April 26, 1999) 根據病人的支付能力收費, 是香港的“傳統”7/7/2

23、02239Direct Segment Discrimination直接板塊歧視Different incremental margin % to each identifiable segment 對每個不同的市場板塊 ,設定不同的邊際毛利率Within each segment IM% = -1/eImplementation: 實施:Fixed, identifiable characteristic - basic for segmentation 必須具有固定的, 可識別的特征No re-sale 防止轉銷 7/7/202240Preventing Resale:“Not for R

24、etail Sale”防止轉銷:“不得零售” Heinz serves 亨氏institutional customers (food service, restaurants) directly 直接把產品銷往機構客戶retail customers indirectly through supermarkets and grocery stores 通過超級市場和雜貨店間接服務零售客戶7/7/202241NYNEX Telephone Service NYNEX電話服務New York City 紐約市residential - $16/month 民用每月16美元business - $

25、23/month 商用每月23美元How is discrimination possible?歧視是如何實現的?7/7/202242Discrimination by Location根據地理位置實行歧視suitable for international business 適用于國際業務price differential parallel imports 價格差異并行進口managing the gray market 灰色市場的管理7/7/202243Asian Wall Street Journal亞洲華爾街日報 年度訂閱的價格$59世界范圍$871Print: Tokyo東京$17

26、3Print: Singapore新加坡$294Print: Hong Kong香港7/7/202244Which Coca-Cola?哪個可口可樂?Two kinds of Coca-cola sold in Japan.American Coke: $5.50 (wholesale price in American), $11.50 (wholesale price in Japan), and $18.30 (retail price in Japan)Made in Japan: $20.00 (wholesale price in Japan), $27.40 (retail pr

27、ice in Japan)Lucrative Japanese market: 5% volume, but at least 20% profit在日本有兩種可口可樂美國可口可樂: 5.5美元(美國批發價格), 11.5美元(日本的批發價格), 18.3美元(日本的零售價)日本制造: 20美元(日本批發價), 27.4美元(日本零售價)可口可樂的日本市場占其總銷量5%, 但利潤貢獻卻超過20%7/7/202245Discriminating by Age根據年齡實行價格歧視Discount prices for children and senior citizens, and regula

28、r prices for adults.Movies theatresTheme parksBus and subway service老人和小孩享有折扣價, 成人正規價電影院主題公園交通服務7/7/202246Indirect Segment Discrimination間接板塊歧視structure choice to earn different incremental margins from each segment 通過為不同市場板塊設計不同的產品來實現價格歧視，賺取利潤 Implementation 實施seller controls some variable to which

29、 segments are differentially sensitive 銷售商控制一些變量, 不同板塊對其具有不同的敏感性buyers cannot circumvent the variable 購買者無法回避這些變量7/7/202247Northwest AirlinesMinneapolis-New York西北航空公司, 明尼寶利士至紐約Business class 商務倉 $ 1711 Unrestricted economy 更改無限制的經濟倉 $ 1267 Advance purchase, with penalties 預購且更改需付罰金的經濟倉 $ 765 Advanc

30、e purchase, for senior 預購、專為長者的經濟倉 $ 692 7/7/202248Chinese Embassy in Singapore中國駐新加坡大使館Application period申請期1 天3 天7 天Single entry單程$75$60$25Double entry雙程$85$70$357/7/202249Pricing Policies: Ranking不同訂價策略的比較Profitability贏利性 Policy政策 Information Requirement信息要求 Highest最高 Complete price discriminatio

31、n完全價格歧視 Highest最高 Direct segment discrimination直接板塊歧視 Indirect segment discrimination間接板塊歧視 Lowest最低Uniform pricing單一訂價策略Lowest最低7/7/202250Bundling 捆綁Strategy 策略pure bundling 純粹捆綁mixed bundling 混合捆綁“ if every segmentwas wild about one thing and hated the rest, they have done their job” (Economist) “

32、 如果每類顧客都對某一產品狂熱而討厭其它產品,捆綁便會是最優訂價策略”(經濟學家) 7/7/202251 Pricing Cable Television Programs有線電視節目定價Segment板塊Education channel教育頻道 Music channel音樂頻道 Conservative$20$2Middle of Road$11$117/7/202252Pricing Concert Series系列音樂會訂價7/7/202253Diplomacy of Price Competition價格競爭的外交術Not winning pricing battles, but

33、preventing those that are not worth fighting 不是贏得價格戰,而是避免不必要的價格戰evaluating managers not only by their ability to win sales and market share but also by their ability to achieve profitability over the long haul 評估經理們, 不要光看他們贏得銷售和市場份額的能力, 還要看他們達到長期贏利的能力7/7/202254Stop the War Before It Starts讓價格戰胎死腹中Re

34、veal your strategic intentions 披露你的策略意圖price-matching policies 價格匹配政策Reveal your cost advantage 披露你的成本優勢Standard Oil 標準石油公司Walmart 沃爾瑪7/7/202255Responding with Nonprice Actions 非價格竟爭的回應Focus on quality 專注于質量Ritz-Carlton in Malaysia 馬來西亞的Ritz-Carlton Alert customers to risk of poor quality 提醒顧客劣質的風險P

35、harmaceutical business 制藥業Seek help 尋求援助from governments, suppliers, customers, vendors, channel partners, independent sales representatives 從政府, 供應商, 顧客, 技術提供商, 分銷伙伴, 獨立銷售代表那里尋求援助7/7/202256Using Selective Pricing Actions有選擇的價格競爭Modify only certain prices 只調低某些價格Northwest v. Sun Country Airlines 西北航

36、空對Sun Country 航空Fight Brands 引進戰斗性品牌3MPQingDao Beer 青島啤酒7/7/202257Consistent Discount Pricing與價格折扣相應的措施Discount be tied to the elimination of the service or feature that the customer claims not to value.取消客戶認為沒有價值的服務和功能The customer commits to accept a negotiated price if it is approved by the salesp

37、ersons management.客戶承諾接受談判好的價格The customer commits to a long-term purchase agreement in return for gaining a discount. 客戶承諾長期的購買協議。7/7/202258Aggressive Pricing進攻性訂價Enjoy a substantial cost advantage (Wal-Mart, Standard Oil ) 享有巨大的成本優勢Attack companies with large market shares (Sprint v. AT&T；Big v. G

38、illette) 攻擊擁有較大市場份額的公司7/7/202259Generic Pricing Strategies普遍適用的定價策略Skimming: setting price high relative to the economic value of most potential customers 撇脂策略: 設定高價格，為少數優質客戶服務Penetration: setting price low relative to the economic value in order to gain from high market share or volume簿利多銷策略: 以低廉的價

39、格來獲取龐大的市場份額或銷量Neutral 中性7/7/202260Wine War - Production葡萄酒之戰- 生產Australian, American, and Chilean winemakers work in steady, hot weathers that produce regular harvests and consistent wines / free to plant / adding oak chips to wine that is fermenting in steel barrels 持續炎熱的氣候調節使得澳大利亞,美國及智利的葡萄酒生產商可以有穩

40、定的葡萄收成,制造出的葡萄酒質量也有保障/可以自由種植/用鐵桶發酵葡萄酒,但在里面加入橡木片.Bordeaux and Burgundy producers must deal with unpredictable weather / strict limits on what types of grapes can be grown in a particular region and how they are planted and picked / ageing the wine in oak barrels (法國)波爾多和勃艮第的生產商所面對的是多變的氣候/對于哪些地區可以種植哪類葡

41、萄,以及如何種植,如何挑選都有嚴格的限制/用橡木桶發酵葡萄酒7/7/202261Wine War - Marketing葡萄酒之戰 - 營銷French system of labeling by geographic origin / mystifying labels / Bordeaux alone boasts 20,000 different producers / cannot afford to have the global marketing / emphasize on upper-classes customers who shop in specialized wine

42、 shop 法國以產地作為葡萄酒的標識/這種標識不易辨認/僅波爾多地區就有2萬多家不同的生產商/規模不足,無法打入全球市場/重點針對那些在專門的葡萄酒商店購買葡萄酒的高端客戶Source: BusinessWeek, September 2001 資料來源: 商業周刊, 2001年9月Label by type of grape / clear-cut labels (eight groupings in New York City) / Three Australian companies dominate 80% of home market / can afford to have gl

43、obal marketing / focus on new drinkers who shop wines in supermarkets 新世界葡萄酒商以葡萄類別作為葡萄酒的標識/這種標識容易區分(紐約市將葡萄酒劃分為8大類)/三家澳大利亞的公司占領其國內市場80%的份額/規模足以進軍全球市場/針對那些對葡萄酒并不熟悉,在超市購買葡萄酒的客戶7/7/202262Beauty-Products Business美容產品LOreal has dominated the $90 billion beauty-products industry by wooing women with Parisi

44、an chic 歐萊雅依仗其“巴黎魅力”獲得眾多女性的青睞, 在總產值九百億美元的美容產品行業中占領主導地位P&G, a leader in soap and diaper business, leapfrogged LOreal leading position in mass-market beauty products through the $50 billion takeover of Clairol in 2001 寶潔原來只是肥皂及尿布市場中的佼佼者,但是當它于2001年以500億美元收購依卡露公司之后, 就超越了歐萊雅在美容產品市場上的地位 7/7/202263LOreal v

45、. P&G歐萊雅與寶潔的較量P&G: the women who speak for its beauty products are unknowns/use no-nonsense comparative advertising in cosmetics 寶潔: 選用的廣告模特都是些不知名的人/認為化妝品廣告應實實在在,只需要讓顧客了解該公司產品與其他公司產品不同之處即可LOreal: employ dozens of models and actresses / In cosmetics, “you have to inform, convince but also seduce cons

46、umers and not just ram facts down their throats.” 歐萊雅: 花錢請來好多有名的模特和演員/認為在化妝品廣告中, “你不僅要讓顧客了解產品,你還要誘使她們購買產品單純的講述事實是不行的.” Just as P&G tried to penetrate the high-end beauty-product market dominated by LOreal, LOreal began to sell more shampoos 寶潔正試圖進入由歐萊雅所控制的高端美容產品市場,而同時歐萊雅也正嘗試銷售更多的洗發水Source: AWSJ, Jan

47、uary 10-12, 2003, A1 資料來源: AWSJ, 2003年1月10日-12日7/7/202264DKNY Deal May Not Fit LVMH收購DKNY對于LVMH來講可能并非正確決策LVMH, a collection of brand name products such as LV and Christian Dior, failed to acquire Giorgio Armani, and bought DKNY ($643 million in 2001) instead. LVMH旗下原來都是那些非常著名的世界級品牌, 比如LV和Christian Dior, 它也曾經想要收購Giorgio Armani,但是未能成功, 于是它轉而收購了DKNY ( 2001年, 以6億4千3百萬美元成交)DKNY sold clothes in discounters (TJ Maxx, M