Navigatinguncertainskies

CommercialAerospaceInsightReport

Authors

Contributors

JohnSchmidt

AerospaceandDefenseGlobalIndustryLead

john.h.schmidt@

AbhigyanChandAbhishekKumarJeffreyWhelessKamilMazurek

PatriceBarbier

MatthieuDupontNavdeepSabooSmritiKumar

AerospaceandDefenseEuropeIndustryLead

patrice.barbier@

TonyJose

Accenture,slatestcommercialaerospaceanalysisfindstheindustry

isontrackforrecoverydespiteuncertainty.Risingdeliveriesand

agrowingaftermarketarehelpingbalancerecentdisruptionsas

supplychainsbegintostabilize.

CommercialAerospaceInsightReport4

Contents

05

Executivesummary

06

Findingsinbrief

09

Globaloutlook

21

What’skeeping

aerospaceleadersupatnight?

23

Regionaloutlook

Executivesummary

Note:Werecognizetherecentmacroeconomicenvironmenthas

createdelevateduncertaintysincethetimeofourexecutivesurvey.

Supplychainsentimentisshowingsignsofimprovement—85%ofexecutivesarenowconfidentindeliveries,upfrom77%in

August2024—butoperationaluncertaintiespersist.Boeing’s

737MAX2025productiontargetswerealreadychallenging—andtherecentChinadeliverypausehasaddedafreshlayer

ofgeopoliticalcomplexity.Recoverymomentumnolonger

dependssolelyonresolvinginternalexecutionissues.Rival

Airbus,meanwhile,haspushedbackitsA320ramp-upto2027duetosupplierbottlenecks.

Whilechallengesremain,somecompaniesarepullingahead.Embraerhasstrengthenedsuppliertiesandoptimized

productionusingAI-driventools,whileSafranisrampingup

LEAPenginedeliveriesthroughlocalizedde-riskingstrategies.AirFrance-KLM’sAIpartnershipwithGoogleCloudhasslashedpredictivemaintenancedataanalysistimefromhoursto

minutes,enhancingutilizationandoperationalefficiency.

Amidmacroeconomicuncertainty,executivesarecautiously

optimistic:61%expectrevenuegrowthinsixmonthsand76%

withinayear.However,buildingonthatearlyconfidencewill

requiretargetedaction.Managingvolatilityandturningadversityintoopportunitywilldemandfocusedexecution—resilientsupply

chains,bettercostcontrol,AI-drivenefficienciesandstrategicplanning.

Despiterecentgeopoliticaldisruptions,theoutlookfor

commercialaerospacerecoveryremainsintact.Resilient

fundamentals—suchaslong-termorderbacklogsandaftermarketmomentum—continuetosignalagradualreturntogrowth,whileearlysignsofsupplychaineasingarebeginningtoemerge.

Projectionsfor2025reflectmeasuredoptimism.Global

aerospacecompanyrevenuesareexpectedtogrow12%year-on-year(YoY).Originalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)arelikelytodrivemuchofthisgrowth,withdeliveriesforecastedtorise23%.However,theongoinguncertaintyinthemacroeconomicand

tradeenvironment,laborconstraintsandqualityissuescouldstilldisruptprogress.

Themaintenance,repairandoverhaul(MRO)sectorcontinues

togrowasairlinesextendfleetlifespansamidOEMproduction

delays.MROspendingisexpectedtorise14%in2025,though

capacityconstraintsandlaborshortagesarestrainingoperations.1LeadingMROplayersareinvestinginpredictivemaintenance,

workflowautomationandsupplierpartnershipstoeasethesepressures.

Regionally,Asia-Pacificisexpectedtoleadwith14%revenue

growth,drivenbyrisingairtraveldemandandMROinvestmentsincountriessuchasIndia,SouthKoreaandAustralia.North

Americacouldseeupto10%growth,supportedbyBoeing’s

productionrecovery.Europeislikelytoextenditspost-pandemicrecoverywith7%growth.

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Findingsinbrief

Globalaerospacemarketontheroadtorecovery

Thecommercialaerospacemarketisshowingsignsofrecoveryin2025,withglobalaerospacecompanyrevenuesprojectedtogrow12%YoY.Sustaineddemandfornewandreplacementaircraft

isexpectedtobeakeydriverofthisgrowth,alongsiderising

MROactivityascommercialflightoperationsexpand.Industry

sentimentiscautiouslyoptimistic:61%ofexecutivesexpect

revenuegrowthoverthenextsixmonthsand76%seeanincreaseoverthenextyear.

However,sustainingthismomentumwilltesttheindustry’sabilitytonavigateamorevolatileglobalcontext—broadertrade-relateduncertainty,laborshortages,persistentsupplychainbottlenecksandqualitycontrolchallenges.

Despitetheserisks,aircraftdeliveriesareexpectedtorise23%—

thehighestannualincreasesince2021.Eighty-threepercentof

executivesanticipatenarrow-bodydeliveriestomatchorexceedfirsthalfof2024(1H24)levels,while88%expectthesamefor

wide-bodyaircraft.Thissignalsgrowingconfidenceinsupply

chainstabilizationandinOEMs’abilitytoscaleproductiondespitelingeringconstraints.

Labor,supplychainconstraintstestaftermarketgrowth

Theaftermarketsectorcontinuestogrow,with49%ofMRO

executivesexpectinghigherspendinginthenextsixmonths(upfrom42%intheprevioussurvey),asairlinesextendfleetlifespans.However,capacityconstraintsandlongmaintenanceturnaroundtimes—worsenedbylaborshortages—arestrainingoperations.

Supplychainpressurespersist,with85%ofexecutivesstrugglingtomeetaftermarketdemand.

Toenhanceresilience,OEMsandMROsaredeepeningsuppliercollaborationthroughlong-termagreementsandintegrated

platforms.Streamliningoperations—fromcostcontroland

workforcetrainingtopartsavailability—remainsatoppriority.

Digitaltransformationispickingupthepace,withpredictive

maintenance,cloud-basedplatformsandautomationemergingaskeyinvestmentareas.

Forexample,Rolls-RoyceisleveragingAI-powereddigitaltwins

throughitspartnershipwithAerogility,allowingittomodel

environmentalimpact,optimizeenergyuseandenhance

operationalefficiencyatitsMROfacilities.Goingahead,AI-drivenefficiencies,streamlinedworkflowsandrobustsuppliernetworkswillbeessentialtobothsustainingoperationalreadinessand

capitalizingonstrongdemand.2

AIgainsgroundinairlines’efficiencydrive

Globalairtraveldemandisexpectedtocontinuerising,with

passengernumbersprojectedtoreach5.2billionin2025—a

4.4%YoYincrease.Industryrevenuesareclimbing,andairline

netprofitsareprojectedtohit$36.6billion.However,thisgrowthwon’tcomeeasyamidmacroeconomicandtrade-relatedrisks,

alongsidechallengeslikeMROsupplydisruptions,aircraft

shortagesandconstrainedprofitability.Theindustry’sreturnoninvestedcapital(ROIC)isprojectedatjust6.8%,belowitsweightedaveragecostofcapital—underscoringtheneedforoperationalefficiencygains.3

AI-drivenimprovementsareemergingasakeystrategytocounterthesepressures.Forexample,AlaskaAirlineshasdeployedthe

FlywaysAIplatformtooptimizeflightroutes,saving1.2million

gallonsoffuelandslashingcarbondioxideemissionsbyabout

12,000metrictons.4AsAIcontinuestoreshapeairlineoperations,broaderindustryadoptionwillbeessentialforefficiencygains,

on-timeperformanceandenhancedtravelexperiences.5

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7

Supplychainstrugglespersist,butconfidenceisimproving

Theindustryisstillgrapplingwithsupplyconstraints,

particularlyinengineandaerostructuredeliveries,withqualityissuescompoundingdelays.ThesechallengescontinuetolimitproductionstabilityforbothOEMsandsuppliers.

Despiteongoingpressures,industryleadersseesignsof

progress.“They’renotexactlywherewe’dwantthemtobe,

butthey’remakinggoodprogresstogetthere,”BoeingCEOKellyOrtbergsaid,referringto787productionramp-upefforts.6

SafranplanstoincreaseLEAPenginedeliveriesby15-20%in2025throughlocalizedde-riskinginitiativeswhileEmbraerandsmallerFrenchsuppliersareleveragingdigitalsolutionstostreamline

supplychainmanagement.7

Confidenceinsupplierreliabilityisshowingsignsof

improvement.Eighty-fivepercentofexecutivesnowtrusttheir

supplychainstodeliverontimeandatqualitystandardsoverthenextsixmonths—upfrom77%inAugust.8

Geopoliticalriskstopexecutiveconcerns

Executivesremaincautiousaboutmacroeconomicand

geopoliticalrisks,withpoliticalinstability—fueledbyrenewedUStradeprotectionism—nowaddingafreshlayerofvolatilitytoanalreadyuncertainoutlook.TheUSannouncedsweepingtariffs,thenpausedthemformostcountriesshortlybefore

theyweresettotakeeffect—reinforcingconcernsabout

tradepolicyunpredictabilityandtheriskoffutureescalation.Althoughrecessionfearshadeasedinlate2024,concerns

aboutslowinggrowthinmajormarketsareresurfacing.

Meanwhile,somemacroindicators—suchasexchangerates

andinterestrates—havestabilized,providingshort-termrelief.

However,supplychaindisruptionscontinuetodriveup

productioncosts,particularlyenergyandlaborexpenses,squeezingprofitability.Astheindustrynavigatesthese

uncertainties,strategicplanning,supplychainresilience

andcostefficiencyremaintopimperatives—especiallywithrecessionriskre-enteringtheconversationinanalready

fragileglobaleconomy.

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Globaloutlook

Afterachallenging2024,theglobalcommercialaerospacemarketisexpectedtoseeadouble-digitrecoveryin2025,supportedby

increasingaircraftdeliveriesandrisingaftermarketdemand.

Globalaerospacecompanyrevenuesareprojectedtogrow12%YoYin2025(Figure1),fueledbysustaineddemandfornewandreplacementaircraftfromairlinesandlessors,aswellasincreasedMROactivity.

OEMsareexpectedtodrivethisrecovery,withaircraftdeliveriesexpectedtogrow

23%—thehighestannualincreasesince2021—asproductionrampsup.9Boeing

andAirbusarebeginningtoregainmomentumafteradifficult2024,whenAirbus’s

commercialrevenuegrewjust6%YoYwhileBoeing’splunged33%YoY.10Those

trajectoriesareexpectedtoshiftin2025,withBoeinglikelypostinghighdouble-digitgrowthandAirbusseeingamoremeasuredimprovement.

However,theenvironmentremainsfluid.Macroeconomicuncertaintyandgeopoliticaltensionssuggesttherecoverymaynotfollowastraightline.Navigatingthisvolatility,whileaddressingsupplychainstrainandqualitychallenges,willbecriticalto

sustainingmomentum.

Meanwhile,thecontinuedexpansionofcommercialflightoperationsisdrivingMRO

demand,furtherpressuringalreadystrainedsupplychains.Tomeetrisingdemandforbothnewaircraftandaftermarketservices,suppliersmustscaleupdeliveriesrapidly—aneffortthatremainsconstrainedbyongoingdisruptions.

Figure1:Globalcommercialaerospaceindex(USD,2018=100)

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Q1

Q1

Q2Q3

2021

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2022

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2023

Q1

Q2Q3Q4

2024

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

20252026

Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

201820192020

ActualForecast

10

CommercialAerospaceInsightReport

Deliveringnewaircraft

Aircraftdeliveriesfellin2024duetosupplychain

disruptionsandproductionsetbacks.Amidpent-up

demandandtradepolicyuncertainty,thefocusisnowshiftingtosupplychainresilience.

Confidenceinaircraftdeliveriesisimproving:83%ofexecutivesexpectnarrow-bodyand88%expectwide-bodydeliveriesinfirsthalfof2025(1H25)tomatchorexceed1H24levels.Optimism

ishigherforthefullyear,with92%projectinggrowthinnarrow-bodyand93%inwide-bodydeliveries(Figures2and3).

Figure2:Narrow-bodyaircraftdeliveryoutlook(unitdeliveriesshippedtocustomers)

Decrease

1H25vs1H24

2025vs2024

Figure3:Wide-bodyaircraftdeliveryoutlook(unitdeliveriesshippedtocustomers)

Increase

1H25vs1H24

2025vs2024

OEMsnavigatedaturbulent2024.Productionslowdownsat

Boeingresultedina34%YoYdeclineindeliveries,whileAirbusmanagedamodest4%increasedespitesupplychainpressures.Together,thetwocompaniesdelivered1,114aircraft.11In

contrast,Embraersawa14%YoYincreaseincommercialaircraftdeliveries.12Lookingahead,AirbusandBoeingareexpectedto

deliver1,367aircraftin2025,a23%increase,drivenmainlybyBoeing’sramp-upafterachallengingyear(Figure10).13

SuppliersareadaptingtoAirbusandBoeing’sproductionplans.AirbushasdelayeditsA320familyramp-upto75aircraftper

monthfrom2026to2027,givingsuppliersmoretimetomeet

productiontargets.14SpiritAeroSystems,whichdelivered27

fuselagesforthe737inQ22024,increasedproductionto31permonthinearly2025,withhigher-qualityinventoryready

forshipment.15

Withsupplychainadjustmentsandproductionramp-ups

underway,98%ofsuppliersexpectsimilarorhigherproductdeliveriesin2025.

Executivessharethisoptimism,with90%ofthemforeseeing

similarorhigherdeliveriesinthefirsthalfoftheyearanda

strongerreboundlaterintheyear(Figure4).Rolls-Royce,

CollinsAerospaceandPratt&Whitneyareexpandingsourcing

inemergingmarketslikeIndiatoenhanceregionalstability

andreducerelianceonexistinghubs.16GEAerospaceexpects

demandfornewenginestooutpaceaftermarketservicesin2025,reflectingexpectationsoffleetexpansion.17

Figure4:Commercialaerospaceproductsdeliveryoutlook

Decrease

1H25vs1H24

2025vs2024

Maintain

Increase

Decrease

Maintain

Maintain

Increase

11

CommercialAerospaceInsightReport

Supportingin-servicefleets

CommercialMROspendingisprojectedtoexceed$126billionin2025,up14%YoY,drivenbyescalatinglabor,partsandproductioncosts.18Capacityconstraintremainsachallenge,withlonger

maintenanceturnaroundtimesforkeycomponentsforcing

airlinestoadjustschedules,reallocatepartsandleasetemporaryequipment.MalaysiaAirlinesCEO,IzhamIsmail,highlightedthatservicingtimeshavemorethandoubledsincepre-pandemic

levels,intensifyingpressureonsuppliersandMROproviders.19

Supplychaindisruptionspersist,with85%ofexecutivesreportingdifficultiesinmeetingaftermarketdemandand54%expecting

theseissuestolastmorethansixmonths.Strengthening

supplierpartnerships,boostingworkflowefficienciesand

acceleratingdigitaladoptionwillbecriticaltomaintaining

operationalreadinessandcontrollingrisingcosts—especiallyasmacroeconomicandtrade-relateduncertaintyaddsanotherlayerofcomplexity.

LeadingMROprovidersarescalingcapacity,

upskillingworkersandadoptingdigitaltoolstomeetrisingdemandwhilenavigatinglaborandsupplychainconstraints.

MROexecutivesremaincautiouslyoptimistic,with49%expectinghigherspendinginthenextsixmonths—upfrom42%inthe

previoussurvey—andtherestanticipatingstability.Asairlines

extendfleetlifespans,thelong-termoutlookissteadier:66%of

executivesexpectspendingtorisewithinayear,climbingto68%overtwoyears(Figure5).

Figure5:MROactivityoutlook

Maintain

Increase

Decrease

Next6months

Next12months

Next24months

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13

Collaborateforsupplychainresilience

BothOEMsandMROplayersaredeepeningsupplierpartnershipsbyfocusingonlong-termagreements,integratedsupplychain

platformsandstrategicalliancesforcollaboration(Figure6).

In2024,Airbus,Boeing,GEAerospaceandSafranlaunchedthe

AviationSupplyChainIntegrityCoalitiontoenhancetransparencyandpreventunapprovedpartsfromenteringthesupplychain.

GEAerospaceandStandardAeroaretighteningvendorcontrols

incoordinationwiththeFederalAviationAdministration(FAA)andtheEuropeanUnionAviationSafetyAgency(EASA).20

Figure6:Measurestostrengthentheaftermarketsupplychain(Top3mentions)

Establishinglong-termsupplyagreementsforcriticalparts

Creatingintegratedsupplychainmanagementplatforms

Buildingstrategicalliancesorjointventurestoshareresourcesandoptimizesupplychainoperations

Leveragingadvancedanalyticstomonitorandimprovesupplierperformance

Increasingsupplierdiversificationtomitigaterisks

Partneringwithlocalsupplierstoshortenleadtimes

Conductingjointforecastingandplanningsessionswithsuppliers

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

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Rethinkoperationsforagilityandcostcontrol

CompanieswithMROoperationsareprioritizingcostcontrol,

partsavailability,workforceupskillingandend-to-endsolutionsoverthenexttwoyears(Figure7).FTAIAviationisintegrating

engineleasingwithin-housemaintenance,emphasizingmoduleswaps,heavymaintenanceandpiecepartsrepairs.21

AirbusandRolls-RoyceareincreasingsourcingfromIndiato

diversifysupplychainsandenhanceresilience.22GEAerospaceisleveragingitsAI-poweredtool,AIWingmate,toboostworkforceproductivitywhileTurkishTechnicisofferingPart147training

andtechnicalprogramstoaddresslaborshortages.23

Figure7:Topprioritiesforenhancingoperationalefficiency(Top3mentions,Immediate/2years)

ControllingcostsofdeliveringMROservicestoimproveefficiency

Improvingpartsavailabilityandaddressingsupplychaindisruptions

Enhancingworkforcecapacitythroughtrainingandupskilling

Leveragingdigitaltoolsanddatatoimproveoperationalprocesses

Increasingreliabilityandreducingturnaroundtimesforrepairs

SettingupregionalMROcenterstominimizerelianceonglobalsuppliers

Investinginpredictiveandprescriptivemaintenancetechnologies

Developingend-to-endMROsolutionstoenhanceintegration

Streamliningworkflowsandoptimizingmaintenanceschedules

OutsourcingspecificMROtaskstothird-partyproviders

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

ImmediateNext2years

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Acceleratedigitaladoptiontounlockefficiency

Cloud-basedplatformsandgenerativeAI-drivenautomationaretopprioritiesforexecutiveslookingtostreamlineoperations.Forexample,AIpowered-predictivemaintenanceisanareawhere

adoptionisexpectedtosurgeoverthenexttwoyears(Figure8).Thisiswhereastrongdigitalcorecanbeadifferentiator:Itnotonlyoptimizesworkflowsbutalsoacceleratestheadoptionof

newtechnologies.

Industryleadersarealreadymovingforward.Rolls-Royce,

inpartnershipwithAerogility,isleveragingdigitaltwinsto

modelenvironmentalimpactanddrivebothsustainabilityandoperationalimprovements.24GEAerospace,Microsoftand

AccenturehavedevelopedagenerativeAIassistant,cuttingmaintenancerecordsretrievaltimefromhourstominutes.25

Figure8:DigitalprioritiesforMROoptimization(Top3mentions,Current/2years)

Cloud-basedplatformstointegrateandstreamlineMROworkflows

GenerativeAIforautomatingworkflowsandco-pilotforaugmentingdecision-makingprocesses

Machinelearningforpredictiveinsightsandoptimization

Roboticsandautomationforrepairandoverhaulprocesses

Advancedanalyticstoenhanceinventorymanagementandpartsforecasting

Edgecomputingforfasterdataprocessinganddecision-making

Cybersecurityframeworkstoprotectsensitiveaircraftdata

PredictivemaintenancesystemspoweredbyIoTandAI

Digitaltwinsforreal-timemonitoringandsimulation

AR/VRtoolsfortechniciantrainingandremotemaintenance

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

CurrentNext2years

Airlineperformance

Amidrisingpassengerdemandandongoingmargin

pressure,AIisemergingasakeyleverforefficiencyinanincreasinglycompetitivemarket.

Theglobalairlineindustryisexpectedtogrowin2025,with

totalrevenuepredictedtosurpass$1trillion.Thiswillbedrivenbyasteady4.4%riseinpassengerdemand,whichwillpush

volumesbeyondpre-pandemiclevels.26Cumulativenetprofitsareprojectedtoreach$36.6billionin2025,up16.2%YoY,withEuropeanairlinesleadingtheway(Figure9).27

Figure9:Regionalairlineprofits

(2024estimatedvs2025forecasted)

Region2024profit

(E)

2025profit

(F)

YoYchange

North

America

$12B

$14B

17%

Europe

$10B

$12B

19%

MiddleEast

$5B

$6B

11%

Asia-Pacific

$3B

$4B

13%

Whilerevenueandprofitsareaccelerating,theindustry’sROICisprojectedatjust6.8%in2025,wellbelowtheweightedaveragecostofcapital—emphasizingtheneedforgreaterefficiencies.28

AI-drivenimprovementsareemergingasakeycompetitive

edge,enhancingrouteoptimization,fuelefficiency,predictive

maintenanceandpassengerexperience.Caseinpoint:United

Airlines’EveryFlightHasaStoryinitiativehasimprovedcustomersatisfactionby6%,demonstratingAI’simpactonservice

personalization.29

Yet,headwindsremain.Supplychaindisruptionsandaircraft

shortagescontinuetoconstraincapacity,whileregulatory

hurdlescomplicateAIadoption.WiskAero,aBoeingsubsidiary,recentlyclearedakeyFAAmilestoneforitsautonomousairtaxi—highlightingbothAI’spromiseanditscomplexityinaviation.30

Tostaycompetitive,airlinesmustleverageAI-drivenefficiencieswhileproactivelyaddressingregulatoryandoperational

challenges.

Figure10:Historicalandforecasteddeliveriesbyyear(BoeingandAirbus)

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1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

201820192020202120222023202420252026

——Widebody——Narrowbody

Narrow-andwide-bodydeliveriesforecast(2018–2026)

Source:IATA

Note:Profitfiguresarerounded,sotheYoYpercentagechangemaynot

preciselyalignwiththedisplayedvalues.ForecastsarebasedonIATA’s

December2024outlook,priortotheannouncementoftheApril2025UStariffpackage(currentlyundertemporarypause).Macroeconomicandtrade-relatedriskscouldaffectairlinedemandandmarginsin2025.

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CommercialAerospaceInsightReport

Business-cyclestatus

Whilechallengesremain,signsofstabilizationare

emergingincommercialaerospace.Strongsuppliercollaboration,AI-drivenefficienciesandfinancial

disciplinewillbekeytosustainingmomentum.

Amongtheexecutiveswesurveyed,61%expectrevenuegrowthoverthenextsixmonthsand76%seeanincreaseoverthenext

year—asignofgrowingconfidenceinsupplychainimprovementsandproductionscalability(Figure11).

Airbussustainedsteadygrowthin2024despitesupplychain

headwinds,postinga6%YoYrevenueincreaseanda42%riseincommercialaircraftoperatingprofit.Strongdeliveries,

afavorableproductmixandoperationalefficiencieshelpedmaintainmomentum.31

Boeing,bycontrast,stumbledthroughabrutalyear.Commercialaircraftrevenueplummeted33%andlossesballoonedby387%YoY,weigheddownbydeliverysetbacks,regulatoryscrutinyandoperationalstruggles.32Supplyshortages,certificationhold-upsandaseven-weekmachinistsstrikewidenedthecompetitivegapbetweenBoeingandAirbusheadinginto2025.

Figure11:Business-cyclestance

(commercialaerospacerevenue)outlook

WhilelargerOEMsfacedturbulence,Embraerprovedresilient,

posting21%YoYrevenuegrowthin2024.33What’sbehindits

Maintain

Decrease

Increase

success?SupplychainoptimizationwithAI-driventools,digital

platformsandeffectivesuppliercollaborationasitexpandedits

Next6months

presencenearkeysuppliers.34Astrongorderbacklog,disciplinedfinancialmanagementandproductionefficiencyfurtherfueled

profitabilityandcashflowgrowth.35

Next12months

Next24months

Meanwhile,majorsuppliers—Safran,GEAerospaceandPratt&Whitney—capitalizedonmarkettailwindslikerisingair

traveldemandandstrongaftermarketservices(MRO&cabin

retrofitting),reporting12%to33%commercialaerospacerevenuegrowthin2024.36

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Productionoutlook

Commercialaerospaceproductionisshowingearlysignsofrecovery,butsupplychainuncertainties

continuetochallengeOEMsandsuppliersastheyworktorampupoutput.

Thenear-termoutlookshowscautiousoptimism,with51%ofexecutivesexpectingproductiontoincreaseinthenextsix

months.Optimismstrengthensoverthelongerterm,with73%expectingasignificantramp-upintwoyears(Figure12).

Figure12:Productioncapacityoutlook

AirbusispressingaheadwithitsA320ramp-up,aimingfor75

aircraftpermonthby2027,whilescalingA220productionto

14planesby2026.A350outputremainsontrackfor12aircraftpermonthby2028.38Tosupportsuppliers,Airbusisprovidingfinancialassistanceandworkingtosecurecriticalcomponents,streamlinelogisticsandpre-emptbottlenecks.39

Meanwhile,enginesuppliersareadaptingtoshiftingdemand.CFMInternationalplanstoincreaseLEAPturbofanproductionbyupto20%in2025.Itisdiversifyingsuppliersandreducingrelianceonsingle-countrysourcestomitigatesupplychain

risks—easingpressureonAirbusandBoeing.40

Maintain

Decrease

Increase

Next6months

Despitelabordisruptionsandweak737MAXsales,Hexcel’sQ4commercialaerospacesalesrose4.6%.GrowthintheA320and787programsprovidedsomemomentum,andthecompany

Next12months

expectsupto10%growthin2025drivenbyAirbus’sproductionrecovery.However,persistentsupplychainconstraintsthreatensustainedgrowth.

Next24months

Manufacturersarestrengt