外資物流類企業(yè)在中國的選址決策研究提綱1.簡介2.計量模型及數(shù)據(jù)來源3.回歸結(jié)果4.結(jié)論和啟示2001年物流成本占中國GDP的20%左右.物流外包業(yè)務(wù)在過去三年中拓展25%以上(BoltonandWei2003).一些城市致力于成為區(qū)域級物流中心城市.1.簡介

自從90年代初以來,巨大的市場潛力吸引了大批外資物流公司進駐中國(Hong,ChinandLiu2004).該研究的目的/主要貢獻:研究外商直接投資在一個轉(zhuǎn)軌經(jīng)濟中的選址行為

了解外資物流企業(yè)的選址決定因素

探討公司特質(zhì)對其選址的影響提綱1.簡介2.計量模型及數(shù)據(jù)來源3.回歸結(jié)果4.結(jié)論和啟示計量模型：假定公司ｉ在城市ｊ的利潤方程為：如果隨即變量獨立地、等同地服從Weibull分布,公司ｉ選擇城市ｊ的概率為:數(shù)據(jù)來源：（1）公司水平數(shù)據(jù)：

全國第二次基本單位普查，2001（2）城市水平數(shù)據(jù)：

中國城市統(tǒng)計年鑒，1993-2002

中國交通統(tǒng)計年鑒，1993-2002中國統(tǒng)計年鑒，1993-2002中國城市年鑒，1993-2002ProvinceCityNumberProvinceCityNumberBeijingBeijing77GuangdongGuangzhou135TianjinTianjin220

Shenzhen168LiaoningShenyang11

Zhuhai29

Dalian58

Shantou5

Yingkou9

Foshan12ShandongJinan14

Jiangmen7

Qingdao61

Zhanjiang5

Yantai7

Heyuan6

Rizhao

5

Qingyuan5ShanghaiShanghai637

Dongguan14JiangsuNanjing40

Zhongshan6

Wuxi6

Shaoguan13

Suzhou44

Chaozhou7

Nantong14HainanHaikou18

Zhenjiang8HubeiWuhan12

Lianyungan5ChongqingChongqing12ZhejiangNingbo9SichuanChengdu7

Hanzhou6YunnanKunming6AnhuiHefei

5XinjiangWulumuqi5FujianFuzhou20

Xiamen47

表1.外資物流類企業(yè)在1992至2001年間的分布表2．被解釋變量的定義和描述VariablesSymbolDefinitionMeanMini.MaxiTransportfactorsBERTHDUM1forseaport;0forothers

0.500.001.00

LROADENNLofurbanroadwaydensity

2.38

-2.61

5.57

LROADEN1NLofprovincialroaddensity

3.45

0.30

4.36

LRAIDEN1NLofprovincialrailwaydensity

-0.25

-2.52

1.92MarketsizeLINDOUT1NLofprovincialindustrialoutput

8.55

4.64

9.55LPRIVATE1NLofprovincialpercentageofprivateemployment

0.98

-1.83

3.38Laborconsideration

LTECHPOPNLofurbanpercentageoftechnicalworkers

-3.80

-6.50

0.00AgglomerationeconomiesLTERTNLofemploymentpercentageofthetertiaryindustry

3.60

2.56

4.29

LFDINLofnumberofFDI

5.751.798.66Government’spolicyFTA1forfreetradezone;0forothers

0.23

0.00

1.00

CAPITAL1forBeijingorthecapitalofaprovince;0forothers

0.53

0.00

1.00提綱1.簡介2.以前的研究3.計量模型及數(shù)據(jù)來源4.回歸結(jié)果5.結(jié)論和啟示VariablesParametertvalueBERTHDUM:Seaport(dummyvariable)0.55***5.05LROADEN:roaddensityinthecity0.30***6.83LROADEN1:roaddensityintheprovince0.141.18LRAIDEN1:railwaydensityintheprovince0.48***9.74LINDOUT1:provincialindustrialoutput0.41***6.42LPRIVATE1:privateemploymentpercentage0.25***4.12LTECHPOP:technicalworkerspercentage0.22***4.17LTERT:employmentpercentageofthetertiaryindustry0.28*1.65LFDI:numberofforeigndirectinvestments0.43***9.63FTA:freetradezones(dummyvariable)0.66***5.07CAPITAL:capitalcities(dummyvariable)0.35***3.01Observations1775Log-likelihood-4575RestrictedLog-likelihood-6548

2

adjusteda0.301模型回歸結(jié)果表3外資企業(yè)特質(zhì)對選址的影響:外資公司的選址決策因素可能會隨著時間的推移而改變(Zhouetal.2002)FDI選址因素可能會隨著其來源地區(qū)的不同而改變(He2003)獨立公司（或總部）和分公司的選址考慮因素可能會不同(IhlanfeldtandRaper1990;Ono2003)

BranchIndependentBERTHDUM:Seaport(dummyvariable)0.71***0.41***LROADEN:roaddensityinthecity0.44***0.24***LROADEN1:roaddensityintheprovince-0.220.40***LRAIDEN1:railwaydensityintheprovince0.38***0.51***LINDOUT1:provincialindustrialoutput0.38***0.40***LPRIVATE1:privateemploymentpercentage0.19*0.26***LTECHPOP:technicalworkerspercentage0.030.29***LTERT:employmentpercentageofthetertiaryindustry-0.270.43**LFDI:numberofforeigndirectinvestments0.67***0.33***FTA:freetradezones(dummyvariable)-0.291.24***CAPITAL:capitalcities(dummyvariable)1.38***-0.20Observations5451230Log-likelihood-1446-3081RestrictedLog-likelihood-2010-4537

2

adjusteda0.2800.321表四.外資物流企業(yè)選址:組織結(jié)構(gòu)的影響

Non-HMTHMTBERTHDUM:Seaport(dummyvariable)0.69***0.46***LROADEN:roaddensityinthecity0.29***0.35***LROADEN1:roaddensityintheprovince-0.140.38**LRAIDEN1:railwaydensityintheprovince0.83***0.24***LINDOUT1:provincialindustrialoutput0.51***0.40***LPRIVATE1:privateemploymentpercentage0.15*0.27***LTECHPOP:technicalworkerspercentage0.23***0.18***LFDI:numberofforeigndirectinvestments0.44***0.40***FTA:freetradezones(dummyvariable)0.41**0.99***CAPITAL:capitalcities(dummyvariable)0.59***0.07Observations863912Log-likelihood-2127-2389RestrictedLog-likelihood-3184-3364

2

adjusteda0.3320.290表五.外資物流企業(yè)選址:來源地區(qū)的影響

pre-1997after1997BERTHDUM:Seaport(dummyvariable)0.38**0.97***LROADEN:roaddensityinthecity0.020.34***LROADEN1:roaddensityintheprovince-0.141.06***LRAIDEN1:railwaydensityintheprovince0.54***-LINDOUT1:provincialindustrialoutput0.52**0.08**LPRIVATE1:privateemploymentpercentage-0.000.51***LTECHPOP:technicalworkerspercentage0.30***0.08LFDI:numberofforeigndirectinvestments0.55***0.50***FTA:freetradezones(dummyvariable)1.32***-0.38**CAPITAL:capitalcities(dummyvariable)-0.271.27***Observations7651010Log-likelihood-2067-2499RestrictedLog-likelihood-2822-3726

2

adjustedb0.268