政策法規對中國汽車產業影響TheAutoMarketToday中國的汽車市場FutureTrend&Drivers未來市場的走向和影響因素RecentPolicies&Regulations近期的相關政策和法規2TheAutoMarketToday中國的汽車市場3TheRiseofPer-CapitaGDP人均GDPLargeMetropolisandCoastalAreas$3,000-$4,000直轄市及沿海地區45GrowthRateofAutomobileandCarProduction1993-2005汽車及轎車產量增幅(inmillionunits) 1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Total 1.291.351.451.471.581.631.832.072.353.254.465.105.73%change 22.14.37.31.387.373.1612.313.113.639.037.214.312.3Cars* 0.230.250.320.390.480.520.570.600.751.172.112.36 2.93%change 41.18.930.029.423.18.3311.56.9523.2756.080.311.824.2*Includessub-categorycarsandMPVs6AddingOneMillionUnitsAYear 年增百萬輛 FirstMillion:1953-1992--40year SecondMillion:1993-2000--8years ThirdMillion:2001-2002--2years FourthMillion:2003--1year FifthMillion:2004–1years SixthMillion:2005–over1year SeventhMillion:2006–1year7GDPandOutputGrowthRatesGDP和汽車產量增幅8China’sautomarket:

mythandreality中國的汽車市場的真實性9101112

IntensifyingCompetition

競爭激烈6＋33＋?13DF-Yueda-KiaFAWCarFAW-VWSGMSVWHainan-MazdaGEELYTianjin-FAW-XialiTianjin-FAW-ToyotaChang’an-SuzukiDongfeng-Peugeot-Citro?nCheryGuangzhou-HondaD-NissanBrilliance-JinbeiBJ-HyundaiChang’an-FordNJ-FiatChanghe-SuzukiHafeiAutoGuizhou-SkylarkSoutheastS-GM-WulingSichuan-Toyota3+?

Guangzhou-ToyotaChang’an-FordD-NissanGuangzhou-HyundaiGreatWallJianghuai6+3146＋3Multinationalsareallin跨國公司全部進入

Volkswagen:大眾

SAICandFAW

GM:通用SAIC-GM,Wuling,Dongyue,Jinbei

Ford:福特

Chang’an,Nanjing,Jiangling

DaimlerChrysler:戴克

BAIC,Southeast Toyota:豐田

FAW,GAIC Honda:本田GAIC,Dongfeng

Renault/Nissan:雷諾-日產

Dongfeng

BMW:寶馬BrillianceJinbei

PSA:標致雪鐵龍

Dongfeng;Fiat:菲亞特

Nanjing Hyundai-Kia:現代-起亞BAIC,Dongfeng,GAIC

Suzuki:鈴木Chang’an,Changhe;Mitsubishi:三菱Southeast

Isuzu:五十鈴Qingling;

15 3＋？:FAW,Dongfeng,SAIC“三大＋？”

BAIC:北汽

DaimlerChrysler,Hyundai,Mitsubishi GAIC:廣汽

Honda,Toyota,Dongfeng-NissanPassenger Chang’anGroup:長安

Ford,Suzuki Hafei/Changhe:哈飛/昌河

AviationIndustryGroup

JianghuaiAutoGroup江淮

Nanjing:南汽

Fiat,MGRover Southeast(Fujian)：東南Mitsubishi,ChinaMotors Brilliance:華晨BMW QinglingMotorGroup：慶鈴Isuzu

163＋？DomesticInvestment

國內投資Chery:奇瑞

R&DCenter,EnginePlant,Export/JVGeely:吉利

R&DCenter,Engineplant,Export/JVBYD(Qinchuan):比亞迪

HK$254million/74%sharesGreatWall:

長城100,000unitscarassemblyplant

Jianghuai:江淮

lightcommercial,MPV,carLifan:力帆

1.6LcarZhongxing:中興

SUVsandpickupsGonowAuto:吉奧

SUVsandpickupsLoncin:隆鑫

￥300million,bus/suv17 RealityandDefinition如何定義 Sedan轎車 Automobile汽車 Motorvehicle機動車 Consumers消費者

Familycar家庭轎車

Price:價格￥100,000,￥80,000,￥40,000,￥30,000

Sedanvshatchback三箱,兩箱(Citro?nZX,Xiali)

18Summary結論:

Eexistingandpotentiallargemarket

現實和潛在大市場Institutionalandcommercial公、商務車市場Consumermarket:消費者市場：摩托車、農用車、微車

Motorcycles,farmvehicles,mini-vehicles(not100%)Sedans轎車

Transitionfromacentralizedtoamarketsystem計劃經濟向市場經濟過渡

19FutureTrendandDrivers未來市場的走向和影響因素20InteractionofThreeForces三股力量的博弈Government,WorldMarket,DomesticMarket政府、國際和國內市場StreamliningofCentralBureaucracies精簡政府機構

ProtectionofPrivateProperty公有制和私有制

WTOImpact世貿組織

TheRiseofaConsumerMarket消費者市場的興起

21DecliningAdministrativeControl行政干預逐漸弱化×MinistryofMachineryIndustry機械部×StateAdministrationofMachineryIndustry機械局×ChinaNationalAutomotiveIndustryCorp.中汽總×StateEconomicandTradeCommission經貿委FederationofMachineryIndustry機械工業聯合會CAAM/SAE中國汽車工業協會/中國汽車工程學會22EmphasisontheRuleofLaw法制增強Type/ProductApproval認證Safety:compulsorytests,frontalcollision安全碰撞法規EmissionControl:EuroIII&II排放ConsumptionTax消費稅ConsumerProtection:Recall消費者保護Fuelconsumptionlevel:然油消耗限制23AdministrativeControl行政干預依然存在

AutoIndustryDevelopmentPolicy產業政策（2004）Marketentry市場準入50:50EquityShareJVforOEMs股比限制TwoJVsforthesametypeofvehicles項目限制24Differentdepartmentalpriorities(部門交叉管理）SDRC:發改委Circular(investmentthreshold)

StateAssetsCommission

國資委LargeState-ownedcompanies

MOFCOM:商務部Investment,Sales,ExportQualityInspection，Supervision&Quarantine:質監局AdministrationofTaxation:稅務局TaxationIndustryandCommerce:工商局BusinessLicensePublicSecurity:公安局VehicleLicense&RegistrationCommunications:交通部Maintenance&RepairMinistryofScience&Technology:科技部25Marketvs.CentralPlanning市場和計劃經濟

StateCouncilDRC國務院發展研究中心GovernmentShouldNotInterfere政府不宜干預

EqualAccessandFairCompetition公平競爭

26DrivenbyMarketForces市場的作用越來越大 Automobile:meansofproductionvsconsumergood

汽車：生產資料還是消費品 Public/InstitutionaltoPrivateOwnership

公有到私有 EconomicGrowth&RisingLivingStandards

經濟發展和生活水平27

Overall

EconomicGrowth

經濟持續增長

AverageGDPgrowth7-8%GDP增幅Activefiscalpolicy積極的財政Averageannualgrowthinoutput

10-15%

汽車年產量均增15％左右

28

InternationalPlayers

跨國公司MultinationalPresence跨國主機廠和供應商GovernmentRelationsandLobbying政府公關VehiclesforGovernmentConsumption政府采購Emissions,Safety,Technology安全、排放、技術

29WTOAccession世貿組織

Tariffdownto25%/10%in2006關稅減削減

Quotaeliminated配額許可證取消Localizationrequirement取消國產化率

Globalsourcing全球采購Equityinvestmentlimit放寬投資額度限制Consumerexpectations:Pricereduction降價

30DomesticMarketForces國內市場變化

LocalInvestment地方政府投資

PrivateInvestment民營投資

Chery,Geely,Brilliance,BYD,Lifan,GW

MarketEntryOpen,withrestrictions準入并未封閉

Merger&Acquisitions兼并重組，借殼生產 BuyingintotheBigThree?民營參股三大?

31 CorporateDecisionMaking企業面臨新決策 Protectivevs.CompetitiveAdvantage保護還是競爭優勢 AdvancedManagementvs.Efficiency先進管理和效率

State-ownership&LaborCostAdvantage

國有和勞動力成本Low-CostManagement低成本管理ProductDevelopment:Institutional/Consumer

新產品開發對象

32MarketShareofCarmakers,2004-2006(%)

市場份額Make/Model 2001 2004 2005 Jan-Mar.‘06Shanghai-VW 31.9 15.8 9.9 9.8Shanghai-GM 7.7 9.9 10.4 9.3FAW-VW 16.5 13.4 9.6 8.8Beijing-Hyundai N/A 6.4 7.8 7.0CheryAutomobile 3.7 4.2 6.4 6.9Geely 2.9 4.55.2 6.1Tianjin-FAW-ToyotaN/A3.44.7 6.0Tianjin-FAW-Xiali 9.3 5.8 6.7 5.8Guangzhou-Honda 6.8 8.2 7.1 5.7Dongfeng-Nissan N/A 2.7 5.5 5.6Dongfeng-PSA 7.0 3.8 4.8 5.033TheRoadofElectronicAppliancesandMotorcycles家電和摩托車MotorcycleMarketshares: 1997 2005

摩托車市場份額 SOEs+JVs（國有和合資企業）:90% 40%

34RecentPolicies&Regulations近期的相關政策和法規35

AutoIndustryDevelopmentPolicy（2004）

產業政策50:50EquityShareJVforOEMs整車股比限制TwoJVsforthesametypeofvehicles項目限制

JVinitiatedM&As合資企業兼并重組國企Separationofproduction&Sales:Mazda3

生產和銷售分離Entrancebarrier準入Supportof“largeautogroups”支持“大集團”36 ImportTariff進口關稅

Quotaandlicenseeliminated許可和配額取消Wholevehicles:25%July1,2006整車25％Parts&components:10%July1,2006零部件10％Impact: high-end,luxurycarsasimports豪華車 Targetingthenewlyrich新富

Localproductionunlikely不會地產37 CBUCharacteristics整車特征(April1,2005)

ImportAdministrationofAutomotivePartsandComponentsHavingCharacteristicsofCBUs60%orhigherinvalue:25％tariff,July1,2006

超過整車價值60％，按整車征稅

EU,US,Japan,Canada,Australia,Mexico:

“ViolationofWTOrulesonlocalization”

違背WTO地產規則China：”Counterimporttariffevasion”“打擊逃避關稅”

Likelysolution解決辦法38

ExteriorIDMarks汽車外部標識

AdministrativeMethodsonExteriorIDMarksofAutomobileProducts,February2006今年二月實施Government:MadeinChina政府規范市場Corporate:Sales企業銷售Consumer:Foreignvs.localbrands消費者心理39 ConsumptionTax,April1,2006消費稅(%)

Sedan/MPV SUVEngine New Old Change Engine New OldChange<1.0L 3 3 0 <=1.0L 3 3 0>1.0L-=1.5L 3 5 -2 >1.0L-=1.5L 3 3 0>1.5L-=2.0L 5 5 0 >1.5L-=2.0L 5 3 2>2.0L-=2.2L 9 5 4 >2.0L-=2.2L 9 3 6>2.2L-=2.5L9 8 1 >2.2L-=2.5L 9 3 6>2.5L-=3.0L12 8 4 >2.5L-=3.0L 12 5 7>3.0L-=4.0L 15 8 7 >3.0L-=4.0L 15 5 10>4.0L 20 8 12 >4.0L 20 5 15Impact:影響40Farmvehiclespartofautomobiles

農用車變為汽車的一部分TheNoticeonStandardizingtheAdministrationofThree-WheelAutomobilesandLow-SpeedTrucks,June1,2006三輪汽車、低速卡車VIN：January1,2007汽車識別代號WMI:世界制造識別 a)minimumoutput3,000/500最低年產量 b)certification生產許可Applicationdeadline:December31,2006申請截至4142IndependentInno