中國的出口退稅政策liuqingdm@“對外貿易是增加我們財富和現金的通常手段……，在價值上，每年賣給外國人的貨物，必須比我們消費他們的多。”——托馬斯·孟“foreigntradeistheengineforgrowth.”——D.H.RobertsonOutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureMotivationMotivationWhyChina’sexportincreasessorapidly?TheanswerTradetheorycomparativeadvantageIncreasingreturntoscaleTradepolicyExportpromotionsubsidyDefinition對出口貨物退還其在國內生產和流通環節實際繳納的產品稅、增值稅、營業稅和特別消費稅。1985年3月，國務院正式頒發了《關于批轉財政部〈關于對進出口產品征、退產品稅或增值稅的規定〉的通知》，規定從1985年4月1日起實行對出口產品退稅政策。Definition條件必須是增值稅、消費稅征收范圍內的貨物必須是報關離境出口的貨物必須是在財務上作出口銷售處理的貨物必須是已收匯并經核銷的貨物DefinitionsanctionedbytheWTO不違背WTO規則TheWTOAgreementonSubsidiesandCountervailingMeasures(SCM,Article1.1a)allowsmemberstoproviderebatesonexportdutiesaslongastherebatedoesnotexceedthefullextentofthedutyimposed.Thus,incontrasttoothertradepoliciessuchasexportsubsidies,VATrebatesaresanctionedbytheWTO.DefinitionsanctionedbytheWTO不違背WTO規則tradetheoryimpliesthatadestination-basedVATsystemwithacompleteexporttaxrebatehasneutraleffectsonexportsandimports(FeldsteinandKrugman,1990)apositiverelationshipbetweentheVATrebaterateandexportvolume(FeldsteinandKrugman,1990)OutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureAbriefhistoryExporttaxrebateswerefirstusedinChinain1985Mainlyduetothemodestexportvolume,thetotalamountofexporttaxrebatesstartedsmall,atlessthan1.8billionRMBin1985,amountingtoabout0.88%oftotaltaxrevenue.AbriefhistoryBy2007,thetotalamountofVATrebatespaidtoChineseexportersrosetoover560billionRMB;andtheratiobetweenexporttaxrebatesandtotaltaxrevenueincreasedto12.35%2013年，出口退稅總額占全國公共財政收入的8.1%，占全國公共財政支出的7.5%。1985-2008年出口退稅額變動趨勢Exporttaxrebates/totaltaxrevenue:1985–2007AbriefhistoryTheVATratewassetat17%formostcommoditiesproducedinChinathroughoutthepost-1994periodFollowingtheprincipleoffullrefundofVATleviedonexportsindestination-basedVAT,theexporttaxrebaterateswereinitiallysettoequaltheVATrate,resultinginanaverageactualrebaterateof16.63%in1994AbriefhistorySubsequently,therapidgrowthinexports,coupledwithaless-than-perfectauditingsystemintheearlystageoftheexporttaxrebateprogram,quicklyresultedinalargeVATrebatebacklogin1995,justoneyearintothenewrebateprogram.By1996,thefiscalburdenbecamesoheavythatthegovernmentwasforcedtoreducetherebateratesfrom17%toasetofmuchlowerrates(3%,6%,and9%fordifferentgroupsofcommodities)AbriefhistorySincethen,theexporttaxrebaterateshavebeenadjustedmultipletimes,sometimesinresponsetoexportconditionsandsometimesduetofiscalconstraintsTocountertheAsianfinancialcrisisof1997andthesubsequentdifficultiesfacedbyChineseexporters,thelowexporttaxrebateratesof1996weredroppedandreplacedin1998byasetofhigherrebateratesof5%,13%,15%,and17%dependingonthecategoryofgoodsAbriefhistoryHereagainthehighgrowthofexportsbetween2000and2003ledtoalargebacklogofrebatepaymentsandseverefiscalpressureonthecentralgovernment.Inresponse,therebaterateswereloweredagainin2004to5%,8%,11%,13%,and17%dependingontheproductcategory.Abriefhistory2007年，“二高一資”產品出口退稅率降低或取消。2008年，為了緩解經濟危機影響，提高出口退稅率。Abriefhistory2004年我國出臺新的出口退稅政策，它是對原出口退稅機制的重大改革，具體改革內容包括：對出口退稅率的結構進行調整。針對不同的產品類別采取不同的出口退稅率，對國家鼓勵出口的高新技術類產品適當提高退稅率，而對國家限制出口的“兩高一資”產品適當下調甚至取消出口退稅率；加大中央財政對出口退稅支持力度；建立中央和地方共同負擔出口退稅新機制，以2003年出口退稅實退指標為基數，對超基數部分的應退稅額，由中央與地方按三比一的比例分別負擔；累計欠退稅由中央財政負擔。OutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureEconomiceffectsHowdoesvalue-addedtaxaffecttrade?Howdoesexporttaxrebateaffecttrade?SomeothereffectsFirst-orderSecond-orderHigh-orderHowdoesvalue-addedtaxaffecttradetheidealizedVATsystemhasnoeffectonacountry'sexportsorimports(oftenreferredtoastheneutralityorirrelevancyresult)FeldsteinandKrugman(1990)threeconditionsThecountryisaprice-takerontheworldgoodsmarketAuniformVATrateappliestobothtradablegoodsandnon-tradablegoodsItisadestination-basedVATwithVATimposedonimportsandfullVATrebatesgiventoexportsExporttaxrebateratesandexportgrowthIdentifythecausaldirectionOtherfactorsthatmayalsoinfluenceexportsmightbepresentatthesametimeastheexporttaxrebaterateadjustment,includingthemacroeconomicconditionsofforeignmarketsandothertradepoliciesadoptedbytheChinesegovernmenttofacilitateexports.improvedcustomsandtransportationservicesIdentifythecausaldirectionEndogeneity內生性Asdifferentexporttaxrebateratesareassignedtodifferentcommoditiesbytradeofficialswhohaveanincentivetoshowcasetheeffectivenessoftheirpolicies,theymaysethigherrebateratesforproductswithagreaterpotentialforexportgrowthChandraandLong(2013)studytheroleofVATrebatesinaffectingChineseexportsusingfirm-levelpaneldatafor2000–2006Toaddresspotentialendogeneity,theyrelyonaquasi-naturalpolicyexperimentin2004foreachpercentagepointincreaseintheVATrebaterate,theamountofexportsincreasedby13%,whichtranslatesintoanadditional$4.70ofexportsforeach$1ofexporttaxrebatespaid.Twocaveatsastheresultsarebasedonarelativelyshortpanel,thefindingsmaynotbeusedtoextrapolateeffectsofVATrebateratesonexportsinthelongertermtheseresultsdonotspeaktothegeneraleffectivenessorefficiencyoftradepoliciesinChinaonecannotruleoutthepossibilitythatChineseexportgrowthcouldhavebeenhigherifChinahadadoptedadifferenttaxsystemaVATsystemwithautomaticcompleteborderadjustmentsSomeothereffectsWelfareeffectPositiveeffectChenetal.(2006)；陳林和朱衛平（2008）Negativeorambiguous馬捷（2002）；Feenstra(2004)Someothereffects蘭宜生和劉晴（2011）平均出口退稅率與出口額劉晴和嚴雷（2013）BasedonMelitz（2003）Export-stabilizedeffect，Structure-optimizedeffect,firm-evolvedeffectandsurplus-alleviatedeffect出口穩定效應、結構優化效應、企業進化效應和順差緩解效應Someothereffects劉晴等（2014）出口退稅與房價InspiredbyChandraandLong(2013)2013年70個大中城市新建商品住宅銷售價格同比上漲的城市個數年末仍有69個。有趣的是，2014年上半年我國出口貿易和部分城市的房價同比都有所下降。出口退稅與房價：作用渠道財政視角土地財政我國在1998年和2004年先后實施了住房制度改革和土地“招拍掛”政策。土地價格和房地產價格不斷上升，地方財政對土地財政的依賴逐步加重（賈康和劉微，2012）出口退稅與房價：作用渠道貨幣視角長期的外貿順