1、?工程管理?Project Management佟 瑞Jinan UniversityClifford F.Gray /Erik W.LarsonProject Management:The Managerial processSession #2 Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University1工程選擇與組織戰(zhàn)略 The Project Selection& Organization strategy Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University2The thought for success 成功思維The successful man lengthens

2、 his stride when he discovers that signpost has deceived him; the failure looks for a place to sit down. - J.R. Rogers 成功的人發(fā)現(xiàn)受到路標(biāo)愚弄時(shí)，仍邁步而行，但失敗者卻找個(gè)地方先坐下來(lái)再說(shuō)。Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University3Aligning Projects with organization Strategy工程與組織戰(zhàn)略相一致Identification of projects priority and linkage with the st

3、rategic plan 工程優(yōu)先權(quán)的識(shí)別及與戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的聯(lián)系Value contribution to the organizations strategic plan 對(duì)組織戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的價(jià)值奉獻(xiàn)。Project managers need to understand the Strategic management Process. 工程經(jīng)理需要了解戰(zhàn)略管理過(guò)程 Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University4Comments from Project managersWhere did this project come from?Should I stop working

4、on this project and start on the new one?Why are we doing this project?How can all these projects be first priority?Where do they get the resources to do this project? Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University5Aligning Project with Organization Strategy 工程與組織戰(zhàn)略相一致Strategy is implemented through projects. Ever

5、y project should have a clear link to organization strategy 戰(zhàn)略是通過(guò)工程來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)的，每一工程都應(yīng)該與組織戰(zhàn)略有清晰的聯(lián)系。 There are too many organizations in which many managers cannot identify a projects and link it with the strategic plan 太多的組織中，許多經(jīng)理們不能夠識(shí)別工程并將之與組織戰(zhàn)略方案聯(lián)系起來(lái)。 Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University6What is Strategic mana

6、gement?Strategic management is the process of assessing what we are and deciding and implementing what we intend to be and how we are going to get there. Strategy describes how an organization intends to compete with the resources available in the existing and perceived future environment. Sep.-Dec.

7、 2004 Jinan University7Two major dimensions of strategic management Responding to changes in the external environment.Allocating scarce resources of the firm to improve its competitive position.Constant scanning of the external environment for changes in a major requirement for survival in a dynamic

8、 competitive environment. Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University8Strategic management s focusIt provides the theme and focus of the future direction of the organization.It supports consistency of action at every level of the organization.It encourages integration because effort and resources are committed

9、to common goals and strategies.It is a continuous, iterative process aimed at developing an integrated and coordinated long-term plan of action.Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University9The Strategic Management Process 戰(zhàn)略管理過(guò)程 Strategy can decide the survival of an organization. 戰(zhàn)略能夠決定組織的生存 But what the action

10、 course it should pursue can decide the success or failure of an organization 但它要采取的行動(dòng)路線卻能決定組織的成敗。Strategic management requires strong links among mission, goals, objectives, strategy, and implementation, 戰(zhàn)略管理要求組織使命、目標(biāo)、目的，戰(zhàn)略以及執(zhí)行強(qiáng)緊密聯(lián)系。Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University10The Strategic Management Process

11、戰(zhàn)略管理過(guò)程Review and define the organizational mission. 評(píng)論和界定組織使命Set Long-range goals and objectives. 設(shè)立長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)和目的。Analyze and formulate strategies to reach objectives 分析并說(shuō)明戰(zhàn)略以期到達(dá)目標(biāo)Implement strategies through projects. 通過(guò)工程來(lái)執(zhí)行戰(zhàn)略 Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University11 Strategic Management Process 戰(zhàn)略管理過(guò)程 2-1Sep.

12、-Dec. 2004 Jinan University12The Strategic Management Process 戰(zhàn)略管理過(guò)程Everyone in the organization should be keenly aware of the organizations mission 組織內(nèi)每個(gè)人應(yīng)當(dāng)敏銳地知道組織使命 The mission statement communicates and identifies the purpose of the organization to all stakeholders. 使命說(shuō)明是對(duì)所有的工程干系人傳達(dá)并識(shí)別組織的目的。Sep.-

13、Dec. 2004 Jinan University13The Strategic Management Process 戰(zhàn)略管理過(guò)程Mission statements can be used for evaluating organization performance 使命說(shuō)明可以用來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)組織績(jī)效 Statements frequently include organizational philosophy, key technologies, public image, and contribution to society. 該說(shuō)明常常包括組織哲學(xué)，關(guān)鍵技術(shù)、公眾形象，以及對(duì)社會(huì)的奉

14、獻(xiàn)等 Mission statements change infrequently, but, it has to be revised when the nature of the business changes or shifts 使命說(shuō)明很少變化。但業(yè)務(wù)性質(zhì)改變或轉(zhuǎn)換時(shí)，這就需要修改使命說(shuō)明了。The statement cant be anybodys mission statement, 使命說(shuō)明不能是任何人的使命說(shuō)明Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University14Long-Range Goals and Objectives長(zhǎng)程目標(biāo)和目的Organization

15、al objectives set targets for all levels of the organization 組織目標(biāo)為組織各級(jí)層面設(shè)定了目標(biāo)Objectives answer in detail where a firm is headed and when it is going to get there. 目標(biāo)詳細(xì)答復(fù)了公司的去向問(wèn)題以及何時(shí)到達(dá)目的地。Objectives for the organization cover markets, products, innovation, productivity, quality, finance, profitabilit

16、y, employees, and consumers 組織目標(biāo)涵蓋了市場(chǎng)、產(chǎn)品、創(chuàng)新、生產(chǎn)力、質(zhì)量、財(cái)務(wù)、收益性、員工以及消費(fèi)者In summary, organizational objectives drive your projects. 總之，組織目標(biāo)驅(qū)開(kāi)工程. Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University15Analyze and Formulate Strategies to Reach Objectives.分析并說(shuō)明能達(dá)成目標(biāo)的戰(zhàn)略Formulating strategy answers the question of what needs to be do

17、ne to reach objectives. 戰(zhàn)略說(shuō)明答復(fù)了到達(dá)目標(biāo)需要做什么的問(wèn)題。Strategy formulation includes determining and evaluating alternatives that support the organizations objectives and selecting the best alternative.戰(zhàn)略說(shuō)明包括確定和評(píng)估能支持組織目標(biāo)的可選擇方案并選定最正確方案。Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University16Analyze and Formulate Strategies to Reach O

18、bjectives.分析并說(shuō)明能達(dá)成目標(biāo)的戰(zhàn)略Strategy formulation ends with cascading objectives or tasks assigned to lower divisions, departments or individuals 戰(zhàn)略說(shuō)明是以組織目標(biāo)或任務(wù)分配給次層部門(mén)或個(gè)人而結(jié)束的20% managements effort on strategy formulation, 80% on determining how strategy will be implemented. 戰(zhàn)略說(shuō)明消耗20%的管理努力，決定如何執(zhí)行戰(zhàn)略卻要消耗80%。

19、Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University17Implement Strategies through Projects 通過(guò)工程來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)戰(zhàn)略 Implementation answers the question of how strategies will be realized, given available resources 執(zhí)行答復(fù)了在給定可供資源的條件下戰(zhàn)略如何實(shí)現(xiàn) Without implementation, success is impossible. 沒(méi)有執(zhí)行，成功是不可能的Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University18The Ne

20、ed for an Effective Project Portfolio Management System 需要一個(gè)有效的工程組合管理系統(tǒng)Absence of a Priority System Linked to strategy Creates Problems 缺少與戰(zhàn)略相聯(lián)系的工程優(yōu)先權(quán)系統(tǒng)會(huì)產(chǎn)生問(wèn)題Conflicts frequently occur among functional managers and cause lack of trust. 職能經(jīng)理間常發(fā)生沖突而導(dǎo)致缺乏信任。Frequent meetings are called to establish or re

21、negotiate priorities.常召開(kāi)會(huì)議以建立或重新商談工程優(yōu)先權(quán)問(wèn)題Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University19The Need for an Effective Project Portfolio Management System 需要一個(gè)有效的工程組合管理系統(tǒng)(續(xù)People frequently shift from one project to another, Employees are confused about which projects are important 人們頻繁調(diào)動(dòng)不同工程，員工對(duì)那些工程是重要的常感到困惑。People a

22、re working on multiple projects and feel inefficient, 人們同時(shí)干多個(gè)工程而感到效率低下。 Resources are not adequate 資源不充足 Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University20The Need for an Effective Project Portfolio Management System 需要一個(gè)有效的工程組合管理系統(tǒng)Organization Politics Project selection may be based not so much on facts and sound r

23、easoning, but rather on the persuasiveness and power of people advocating projects. 工程選擇不是基于大量的事實(shí)和合理的論證，而是基于人們對(duì)于工程主張的說(shuō)服力和權(quán)利。Savvy project managers recognize the importance of having “friends in higher courts who can advocate for their case and protect their interests. 有悟性的工程經(jīng)理會(huì)意識(shí)到“朝里有人好做官的重要性，這樣“朝里的

24、人會(huì)幫助工程經(jīng)理們鼓吹他們的工程并保護(hù)他們的利益。Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University21Strategy, Objectives, and Project Linkages 戰(zhàn)略、目標(biāo)以及工程聯(lián)系2-2Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University22Portfolio of Projects By Type工程類型組合2-4Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University23Classification of ProjectCompliance (must do) projectCompliance projects are typi

25、cally those needed to meet regulatory conditions required to operate in a region; hence, they are called “must do projects.Emergency projects, such as rebuilding a soybean factory destroyed by fire, meet the must do criterion.Compliance and emergency projects usually have penalties if they are not i

26、mplemented.Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University24Operational projectsOperational projects are those that are needed to support current operations.These projects are designed to improve efficiency of delivery systems, reduce products costs, and improve performance.TQM projects are examples of operational

27、projects.Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University25Strategic projectsStrategic projects are those that directly support the organization long run mission.They frequently are directed toward increasing revenue or market share.Examples of strategic projects are new products, research and development.Anyone gen

28、erating a project proposal should classify their proposal by type, so the appropriate criteria can be used to evaluate their proposal.Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University26Major Project Proposal主工程建議書(shū)2-5Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University27Risk Analysis 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析2-6Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University28Project Screeni

29、ng Process工程篩選過(guò)程2-7Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University29Project Screening Matrix 工程篩選矩陣2-8Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University30Project Portfolio Matrix 工程組合矩陣 (David and Jim Matheson)2-10Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University31The grid has four quadrantsBread-and butter projects typically involve evolutionary impr

30、ovements to current products and services. Examples include software upgrades and manufacturing cost reduction efforts.Pearls represent revolutionary commercial advances using proven technical advances. Examples include next-generation integrated circuit chip and subsurface imaging to locate oil and

31、 gas.Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University32The grid has four quadrantsOysters involve technological breakthroughs with high commercial payoffs. Examples include embryonic DNA treatments and new kinds of metal alloys.White elephants are projects that at one time showed promise but are no longer viable. Ex

32、amples include products for a saturated market or a potent energy source with toxic side effects. Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University33R&D organizations Organizations often have too many white elephants and too few pearls and oysters.To maintain strategic advantage they recommend that organization capit

33、alize on peals, eliminate or reposition white elephants and balance resources devoted to bread-and-butter and oyster projects to achieve alignment with overall strategy. Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University34Not enough timeToo riskyPoliticallyunacceptableDependenceinfeasiblePastChoiceZoneRemember: You do

34、 not know all the alternatives You dont have the time to consider all the alternatives, anywayThink risk, dependence, the past & powerA Conceptual Framework for Project ChoiceA Conceptual Framework 概念框架WhichProject do I Choose?該選哪一個(gè)工程呢？Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University35Characteristics of Benefits利益特征

35、Resource Quality Needed所需資源質(zhì)量 Improved Profitability (cash flow) 提高利潤(rùn)現(xiàn)金流 Customer Satisfaction 客戶滿意 New Market Penetration 新市場(chǎng)滲透 New Technology Development 新技術(shù)開(kāi)發(fā) Technology Transfer 技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓 Enhanced Reputation 提高知名度 Workforce Stability 勞動(dòng)力穩(wěn)定 Reduction of Unused Capacity 減少未用生產(chǎn)量 Skills Improvement 技能提高

36、Business Knowledge (market) 商業(yè)知識(shí)市場(chǎng) Manpower(human resource) 人力人力資源 Facilities (existing condition) 設(shè)施現(xiàn)有條件 Equipment and Machinery 設(shè)備及機(jī)械 Specialized Expertise (special skill) 特殊專有技術(shù)特殊技能 Patents / Rights / Licenses專利/授權(quán)/許可 Project Management Skills 工程管理技能 Reputation 信譽(yù) Money (capital raising) 資金融資Stra

37、tegic Considerations 策略考慮Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University36StrategicAssessment策略評(píng)估StrategicIssues策略問(wèn)題Strengths &Weaknesses強(qiáng)勢(shì)和弱勢(shì)Opportunities&Threats機(jī)會(huì)和威脅低Low中Medium高HighStrong強(qiáng)Medium中Low低Resource Quality 資源質(zhì)量項(xiàng)目利益Project BenefitsProject Strategic Assessment 工程策略評(píng)估Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University37LowMe

38、diumHighStrongMediumLowResource Quality neededProject BenefitsLowHighMediumProject Priority 項(xiàng)目?jī)?yōu)先Strategic Importance 戰(zhàn)略重要性Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University38Project selection is the process of evaluating individual projects or groups of projects, and then choosing to implement some set of them so that

39、 the objectives of the parent organization will be achieved 工程選擇是對(duì)單個(gè)或一組工程進(jìn)行評(píng)估并選擇實(shí)施對(duì)象從而實(shí)現(xiàn)母公司目標(biāo)的過(guò)程。Managers often use decision-aiding models to extract the relevant issues of a problem from the details in which the problem is embedded 經(jīng)理們經(jīng)常要用到?jīng)Q策輔助模型來(lái)從產(chǎn)生問(wèn)題的眾多細(xì)節(jié)中提煉出相關(guān)要點(diǎn)。 Models represent the problems st

40、ructure and can be useful in selecting and evaluating projectsProject Selection Process 工程選擇過(guò)程Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University39 2 Basic Types of Models 模型的根本類型Nonnumeric非數(shù)學(xué)模型 Numeric 數(shù)學(xué)模型Two Critical Facts:Models do not make decisions - People do! 模型是不能做決策的，而一定是人。 Manager, not the model, bears respo

41、nsibility for the decision.All models, however sophisticated, are only partial representations of the reality they are meant to reflect, no model can yield an optimal decision except within its own, possibly inadequate, framework.Project Selection Models 工程選擇模型Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University40Sacred

42、 Cow 圣牛， 工程由組織中高層權(quán)威人士最先提議，一般從簡(jiǎn)單的評(píng)論開(kāi)始的。由評(píng)論導(dǎo)致工程產(chǎn)生，如新產(chǎn)品初步設(shè)想，新市場(chǎng)的開(kāi)發(fā)等。Operating Necessity 經(jīng)營(yíng)需要，比方。非典襲來(lái)，北京修建小湯山醫(yī)院。就不需要過(guò)多的正式評(píng)估。Competitive Necessity 競(jìng)爭(zhēng)需要 ， 這也不需要使用那些縝密的數(shù)學(xué)分析。Product Line Extension - 拓展產(chǎn)品系列，要看工程是否在一定程度上適合現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品品種、填補(bǔ)品種空白、加強(qiáng)薄弱環(huán)節(jié)還是在新的領(lǐng)域拓展產(chǎn)品品種。 Comparative Benefit Model - several projects are cons

43、idered and the one with the most benefit to the firm is selected 比較利益模型 ，從眾多備選工程中選擇那些能使公司收益最大的工程，Nonnumeric Project Selection Models非數(shù)學(xué)工程選擇模型Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University41Payback period - initial fixed investment/estimated annual cash inflows from the project 回收期最初固定投資/年現(xiàn)金流。沒(méi)有考慮回收期之后的現(xiàn)金流入，也沒(méi)有考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

44、因素Average Rate of Return - average annual % profit/average investment 平均回報(bào)率是平均年利潤(rùn)與工程最初投資或平均投資的比率。 以上兩種方法都未考慮貨幣的時(shí)間價(jià)值。Discounted Cash Flow - Present Value Method 凈現(xiàn)值法 ，NPV, net present value (Also called NPV method, net present value method)Internal Rate of Return - Finds rate of return that equates p

45、resent value of inflows and outflows 內(nèi)部收益率法Profitability Index - NPV of all future expected cash flows/initial cash investment 利潤(rùn)率指數(shù)if this ratio is greater than 1.0, the project may be accepted. 如果比值大于1，工程可以接受。Numeric Project Selection Models數(shù)學(xué)工程選擇模型 利潤(rùn)/盈利能力Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University42Unweight

46、ed 0-1 Factor Model 非加權(quán)0-1因素模型Unweighted Factor Scoring Model非加權(quán)評(píng)分模型Weighted Factor Scoring Model 加權(quán)因素評(píng)分模型Constrained Weighted Factor Scoring Model 附帶約束條件的加權(quán)因素評(píng)分模型Goal Programming with Multiple ObjectivesScoring Numeric Selection Models評(píng)分?jǐn)?shù)學(xué)選擇模型Examples of valuation models that use multiple criteria

47、to evaluatea project are listed below. These are sometimes used to overcomesome of the disadvantages of profitability models, particularly their focus on a single decision criteria. 克服盈利能力模型的一些缺陷，尤其是那些只考慮了單一決策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的模型。Sep.-Dec. 2004 Jinan University43Realism - reality of managers decision 實(shí)用性Capability

48、- able to simulate different scenarios and optimize the decision 功能性， 能夠模擬工程內(nèi)部和外部的各種情況，并能使決策最優(yōu)化。Flexibility - provide valid results within the range of conditions 靈活性，模型應(yīng)該具有易于調(diào)整或自我調(diào)節(jié)能力，以適用企業(yè)環(huán)境的變化。 Ease of Use - reasonably convenient, easy execution, and easily understood 易用性，易于使用和理解，并易于獲得。Cost - Data gathering and modeling costs should be low relative to the cost of the project 本錢(qián)，數(shù)據(jù)收集和建立模型的本錢(qián)要低于相應(yīng)的工程本錢(qián)。Easy Computerization - m