1、Chapter 24Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uInflation refers to a situation in which the economys overall price level is rising. 通貨膨脹通貨膨脹是指經濟中物價總水平上升的情況。是指經濟中物價總水平上升的情況。uThe inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period. 通貨膨

2、脹率通貨膨脹率是從前一個時期以來物價總水平變動的百是從前一個時期以來物價總水平變動的百分比。分比。 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. uThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each month

3、.uIt is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u消費物價指數消費物價指數 (CPI)是普通消費者所購是普通消費者所購買的物品與勞務的總費用的衡量標準。買的物品與勞務的總費用的衡量標準。 u勞工部勞工部的一個部門的一個部門勞工統計局勞工統計局每月都計每月都計算并公布消費物價指數。算并公布消費物價指數。u它被用來監測生活費用隨著時間的變化它被用來監測生活費用隨著時間的變化情況。

4、情況。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living.當當CPI上升時，普通家庭不得不花費上升時，普通家庭不得不花費更多的美元來保持原來的生活水平。更多的美元來保持原來的生活水平。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by H

5、arcourt, Inc.uFix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer.uThe Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys. uThe BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods

6、 and services.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u固定籃子固定籃子: 確定哪些物價對普通消費確定哪些物價對普通消費者是最重要的。者是最重要的。u勞工統計局勞工統計局(BLS)通過消費者調查并找出通過消費者調查并找出普通消費者購買的一籃子物品與勞務。普通消費者購買的一籃子物品與勞務。 u勞工統計局每月對消費者進行調查來確勞工統計局每月對消費者進行調查來確定對這些物品與勞務價格的權數。定對這些物品與勞務價格的權數。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived

7、 items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uFind the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time. 找出價格：找出價格：找出每個時點上籃子中每找出每個時點上籃子中每種物品與勞務的價格。種物品與勞務的價格。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uCompute the Baskets Cost: Use t

8、he data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times. 計算這一籃子東西的費用：計算這一籃子東西的費用：用價格數據計用價格數據計算不同時點一籃子物品與勞務的費用。算不同時點一籃子物品與勞務的費用。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uChoose a Base Year and Compute the Index: uDesignate one year

9、as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared. uCompute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u選擇基年并計算指數選擇基年并計算指數: u指定一年

10、為基年，即其他各年與之比較的基指定一年為基年，即其他各年與之比較的基準。準。 u每年一籃子物品與勞務的價格除以基年一籃每年一籃子物品與勞務的價格除以基年一籃子物品與勞務的價格，然后把這個比率乘以子物品與勞務的價格，然后把這個比率乘以100，所得出的數字就是消費物價指數。，所得出的數字就是消費物價指數。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uCompute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in th

11、e price index from the preceding period. 計算通貨膨脹率：計算通貨膨脹率：通貨膨脹率是從上一年通貨膨脹率是從上一年以來物價指數的變動百分比。以來物價指數的變動百分比。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.1001 Year in CPI1 Year in CPI - 2 Year in CPI Year2in Rate InflationThe inflation rate is calculated as follows:通貨膨脹率計算如下：通貨膨脹

12、率計算如下：2CPI - 11001CPI 第 年第 年CPI第2年的通貨膨脹率第 年Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子第一步：調查消費者以確定固定的一籃子物品第一步：調查消費者以確定固定的一籃子物品4個熱狗，個熱狗，2個漢堡個漢堡Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子第二步：找出每年每種物品的價格第二步：找出每年每種物品的價格年年熱狗價格熱狗價格漢堡價格漢堡價格Copyright2004

13、 South-Western表表1. 計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子第三步：計算每年一籃子物品的費用第三步：計算每年一籃子物品的費用Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子第四步：選擇一年為基年（第四步：選擇一年為基年（2001）并計算每年的消費物價指數）并計算每年的消費物價指數Copyright2004 South-Western表表1. 計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子第五步：用消費物價指數計算自上一年

14、以來的通貨膨脹率第五步：用消費物價指數計算自上一年以來的通貨膨脹率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uCalculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: Another ExampleBase Year is 2002.Basket of goods in 2002 costs $1,200.The same basket in 2004 costs $1,236.CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) 100 =

15、 103.Prices increased 3 percent between 2002 and 2004.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一計算消費物價指數和通貨膨脹率：一個例子個例子基年選為基年選為2002.2002年這一籃子物品的費用是年這一籃子物品的費用是1200美元。美元。2004年同一籃子的費用是年同一籃子的費用是1236美元。美元。CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) 100 = 103.在在2002年至年至2004年間，物價上升了年

16、間，物價上升了3。16%Food andbeverages17%TransportationMedical care6%Recreation6%Apparel4%Other goodsand services4%41%Housing6%Education and communication16%食物與飲料17%Transportation 醫療6% 娛樂6% 美容4%其他物品與勞務4%41% 住房6% 教育和 通信 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The CPI is an accur

17、ate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living.CPI是所選擇的構成消費籃子的物品的準確衡是所選擇的構成消費籃子的物品的準確衡量，但它并不是生活費用的完美衡量指標。量，但它并不是生活費用的完美衡量指標。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uSubstitution bias 替代傾向替代傾向uInt

18、roduction of new goods 新產品的引進新產品的引進uUnmeasured quality changes 無法衡量的質量變動無法衡量的質量變動Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uSubstitution BiasThe basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in relative prices. Consumers substitute toward goods that have

19、 become relatively less expensive. The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u替代傾向替代傾向當不同產品的相對價格發生變化時，消費當不同產品的相對價格發生變化時，消費者會通過改變購買習慣對此有所反應，而者會通過改變購買習慣對此有所反應，而計算物價指數的市場籃子保持不變。計算物價

20、指數的市場籃子保持不變。 消費者轉向購買變得相對便宜的替代物品。消費者轉向購買變得相對便宜的替代物品。 消費物價指數不考慮這種消費者替代的可能消費物價指數不考慮這種消費者替代的可能性，從而高估了生活費用的增加。性，從而高估了生活費用的增加。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uIntroduction of New GoodsThe basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by the introd

21、uction of new products. New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable. Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard of living.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u新產品的引進新產品的引進當引進了一種新產品時，消費者有了更多的當引進了一種新產品時，消費者有了

22、更多的選擇，使貨幣的購買力增加，計算消費物價選擇，使貨幣的購買力增加，計算消費物價指數的市場籃子并沒有反映這種變動指數的市場籃子并沒有反映這種變動。 新產品的引進為消費者提供了更多的選擇機會，新產品的引進為消費者提供了更多的選擇機會，進而使每一美元更值錢。進而使每一美元更值錢。 消費者可以需要更少的美元來維持一定的生活水消費者可以需要更少的美元來維持一定的生活水平。平。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uUnmeasured Quality ChangesIf the quality o

23、f a good rises from one year to the next, the value of a dollar rises, even if the price of the good stays the same.If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even if the price of the good stays the same.The BLS tries to adjust the price for constant quali

24、ty, but such differences are hard to measure.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u無法衡量的質量變動無法衡量的質量變動如果從一年到下一年物品的質量上升了，即使該如果從一年到下一年物品的質量上升了，即使該物品的價格保持不變，一美元的價值也上升了。物品的價格保持不變，一美元的價值也上升了。如果從一年到下一年物品的質量變差了，即使該如果從一年到下一年物品的質量變差了，即使該物品的價格保持不變，一美元的價值也下降了。物品的價格保持不變，一美元的價值也下

25、降了。勞工統計局盡其最大努力調整價格來考慮質量變勞工統計局盡其最大努力調整價格來考慮質量變動，但是這些質量差異很難衡量。動，但是這些質量差異很難衡量。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living.uThe issue is importa

26、nt because many government programs use the CPI toadjust for changes in the overall level of prices.uThe CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percentage point per year. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u替代傾向、新產品的引進和無法衡量替代傾向、新產品的引進和無法衡量的質量變動導致的質量變動導致CPI高估了實際的生活高估了

27、實際的生活費用。費用。u這個問題之所以重要，是因為許多政府計這個問題之所以重要，是因為許多政府計劃是用消費物價指數來調整物價總水平的劃是用消費物價指數來調整物價總水平的變動的。變動的。uCPI每年高估了每年高估了1左右的通貨膨脹率。左右的通貨膨脹率。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.100GDP RealGDP Nominal=deflator GDPThe GDP deflator is calculated as follows:GDP平減指數計算如下：平減指數計算如下： GDPGD

28、P =100 GDP名義平減指數實際Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe BLS calculates other prices indexes: 勞工統計局還計算其他價格指數：勞工統計局還計算其他價格指數：uThe index for different regions within the country. 美國不同地區的價格指數。美國不同地區的價格指數。uThe producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket

29、 of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers. 生產價格指數生產價格指數衡量廠商而不是消費者購買的衡量廠商而不是消費者購買的一籃子物品與勞務的費用。一籃子物品與勞務的費用。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uEconomists and policymakers monitor both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quic

30、kly prices are rising.uThere are two important differences between the indexes that can cause them to diverge.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u經濟學家和政策制訂者為了估計物價上經濟學家和政策制訂者為了估計物價上升有多快，即要關注升有多快，即要關注GDP平減指數，又平減指數，又要關注消費物價指數。要關注消費物價指數。u有兩個重要的差別導致這兩個數字不一有兩個重要的差別導致這兩個

31、數字不一致。致。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas.uthe consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived i

32、tems copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uGDP 平減指數平減指數反映了反映了國內生產國內生產的所有的所有物品與勞務的價格，而物品與勞務的價格，而.u 消費物價指數消費物價指數反映反映消費者購買消費者購買的所的所有物品與勞務的價格。有物品與勞務的價格。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe consumer price index compares the price of a fixed basket of goods and services t

33、o the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the BLS change the basket).uwhereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Ha

34、rcourt, Inc.u消費物價指數消費物價指數 比較比較固定固定的一籃子物品的一籃子物品與勞務的價格與基年這一籃子物品與與勞務的價格與基年這一籃子物品與勞務的價格（勞工局只是偶爾改變這勞務的價格（勞工局只是偶爾改變這一籃子物品）一籃子物品）.u而而GDP平減指數平減指數比較比較現期生產現期生產的物的物品與勞務的價格與基年同樣物品與勞品與勞務的價格與基年同樣物品與勞務的價格。務的價格。1965Percentper Year15CPIGDP deflator10501970197519801985199020001995每年百分比每年百分比GDP平減指數平減指數消費物價指數消費物價指數Harc

35、ourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uPrice indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar figures from different times. 當比較不同時點當比較不同時點 上美元數字時，價格上美元數字時，價格指數被用來校正通貨膨脹的影響。指數被用來校正通貨膨脹的影響。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001

36、by Harcourt, Inc.uDo the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruths wages in 1931 to dollars in 2001:SalarySalaryPrice level in 2001Price level in 193120011931$80,.$931,00017715 2579Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u通過以下計算將巴波通過以下計算將巴波.魯思的魯思的1931年的薪水轉換年的薪水轉換成按成按19

37、99年美元計算的薪水：年美元計算的薪水：1 9 9 91 9 3 1 1 9 9 9 = 1 9 3 11 6 6= $ 8 0 , 0 0 01 5 . 2= $ 8 7 3 , 6 8 4物價水平薪水薪水物價水平Copyright2004 South-WesternHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.片名片名上映上映年代年代按按1999年美元估算年美元估算的國內總票房收入的國內總票房收入（百萬美元）（百萬美元）1.亂世佳人亂世佳人2.星球大戰星球大戰3.音樂之聲音樂之聲4.泰坦尼克號泰

38、坦尼克號5.外星人：外星人入侵外星人：外星人入侵6.十誡十誡7.大白鯊大白鯊8.日瓦戈醫生日瓦戈醫生9.叢林日記叢林日記10.白雪公主白雪公主1939197719651997198219561975196519671937920789638601601587574543485476Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.When some dollar amount is automatically corrected for inflation by law or contract the

39、amount is said to be indexed for inflation.當某一美元量根據法律或合約自動地按通當某一美元量根據法律或合約自動地按通貨膨脹校正時，這種美元量就稱為通貨膨貨膨脹校正時，這種美元量就稱為通貨膨脹的指數化。脹的指數化。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Interest represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the past.利率代表未來要為過去轉移的貨幣進行支利率代表

40、未來要為過去轉移的貨幣進行支付。付。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe nominal interest rate is the interest rate not corrected for inflation. uIt is the interest rate that a bank pays.uThe real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for inflation.Real in

41、terest rate = (Nominal interest rate Inflation rate)Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u名義利率名義利率 是沒有根據通貨膨脹校正的利是沒有根據通貨膨脹校正的利率。率。 u它是銀行所支付的利率。它是銀行所支付的利率。u實際利率實際利率 是根據通貨膨脹校正的利率。是根據通貨膨脹校正的利率。實際利率實際利率 = 名義利率名義利率 通貨膨脹率通貨膨脹率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyrigh

42、t 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uYou borrowed $1,000 for one year.uNominal interest rate was 15%. uDuring the year inflation was 10%.Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate Inflation= 15% - 10% = 5%Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u你向銀行借了你向銀行借了1,000美元，期限一年。美元，期限一年。u名

43、義利率是名義利率是 15%。u這一年中通貨膨脹率是這一年中通貨膨脹率是 10%。實際利率實際利率 = 名義利率名義利率 通貨膨脹率通貨膨脹率= 15% - 10% = 5%1965Interest Rates(percentper year)15Real interest rate105051970197519801985199019952000Nominal interest rate利率利率（每年百分比）（每年百分比）名義利率名義利率實際利率實際利率Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.

44、uThe consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year.uThe index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy.uThe percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived

45、items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u消費物價指數表示相對于基年一籃子物品消費物價指數表示相對于基年一籃子物品與勞務的費用，這一籃子物品與勞務的費與勞務的費用，這一籃子物品與勞務的費用是多少。用是多少。u這個指數用于衡量經濟中的物價總水平。這個指數用于衡量經濟中的物價總水平。u消費物價指數變動的百分比衡量通貨膨脹消費物價指數變動的百分比衡量通貨膨脹率。率。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for the following three reasons: substitution bias, the introduction of new goods, and unmeasured changes in quality.uBecause of measurement problems, the CPI overstates annual inflation by about 1 percentage point. Harcourt, In