本文檔由funstory.ai的開源PDF翻譯庫BabelDOCv0.3.27(http://yadt.io)翻譯，本倉庫正在積極的建設當中，歡迎star和關注。22IMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGOFHARVARD

22JointCenterforHousingStudiesofHarvardHarvardGraduateSchoolofDesign|HarvardKennedy

HarvardGraduateSchoolofDesign|HarvardKennedyTableofIntroductionand

EvolvingTrendsinIndustry

RemodelingMarketsin ChangingHousehold

andClimate

and Remodelingand

和氣候改造趨勢的演變

TheJointCenterforHousingStudiesthanksABCSupplyCompanyforsponsoringtheproductionofImprovingAmerica’sHousingPrincipalsupportforthisreportwasprovidedbythePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies.PolicyAdvisory

TheJointCen感謝ABC供應公司贊助ImprovingAmericasHousing2025的出 ABCSupplyCompanyAndersenCorporationBuildersFirstSourceCornerstoneBuildingBrandsFergusonEnterprisesFortuneBrandsInnovationsTheHomeDepot

Louisiana-PacificCorporationLutronElectronicsMarvinWindowsandDoorsMascoCorporationNationalGypsumCompanyOldcastleAPG,aCRHCompanyPellaCorporationSaint-

StandardIndustriesU.S.WellsFargo

ABC商第一源基石建筑品牌菲爾格

APG，CRH

Sherwin?WilliamsUSGAdditionalsupportwasprovidedbymembercompaniesoftheRemodelingFuturesSteering

ACREWindows&DoorsBuildingIndustryPartnersBuildingSupplyChannel,Inc.CaseArchitects&RemodelersClearwaterExteriorsCustomDesign&ConstructionDAPProducts,Inc.TheFarnsworthGroupFeldcoHomeRenewalFSBrandsInforma

JacuzziBathJohnBurnsResearchandConsultingLavinMediaLowe’sCompanies,Inc.MosbyBuildingArts,NationalAssociationofHomeNationalAssociationofNationalAssociationoftheRemodelingIndustryOwensConstructionProfessionalRemodelerMagazineProfessionalRemodelingCollectiveRenewalbyAndersenofGreaterWisconsin

RenovationSellsServiceFinanceCompanySolaGroup,Inc.SouthwestStyleSynchronyFinancialSystemPaversThompsonCreekU.S.CensusU.S.DepartmentofU.S.DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentWestShoreWestlakeRoyalBuilding

ACRE窗戶和門建筑行業合作伙伴建筑材料供應渠道公司案例建筑師和翻新商清水外立面定制設計及施工DAP產品公司EverFenceFarnsworth集團Feldco家居翻新FS品牌Google漢高公司家居改善研究學院HouzzInforma市場公司

JacuzziBathJohnBurnsResearchandConsultingLavinMediaLowesCompanies,Inc.MosbyBuildingArts,NationalAssociationofHomeNationalAssociationofNationalAssociationoftheRemodelingIndustryOwensConstructionProfessionalRemodeler雜志安德森翻新公司（威斯康星州大區

翻新銷售Renovo家居合作伙伴Rockwool服務金融公司Sola集團股份有限公司西南風格斯蒂夫斯父子有限公司Synchrony金融系統鋪路工ThompsonCreek美國人口普查局美國能源部美國住房和城市發展部西岸之家西爾克湖皇家建筑材Foradditionalinformation,datatables,andinteractivecharts,ortodownloadaPDFofthisreport,visit?2025bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardTheopinionsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofHarvardUniversity,thePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies,sponsorsoftheRemodelingFuturesProgram,orotherpersonsororganizationsprovidingsupporttotheJointCenterforHousingStudies.

?2025bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardTheopinionsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofHarvardUniversity,thePolicyAdvisoryBoardoftheJointCenterforHousingStudies,sponsorsoftheRemodelingFuturesProgram,orotherpersonsororganizationsprovidingsupporttotheJointCenterforHousingStudies.JOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITSpendingintheUSresidentialremodelingmarketreachedunprecedentedheightsinthewakeoftheCOVID-19pandemic,soaringabove$600billionin2022.Despitemodestdeclinesin2023and2024,marketexpendituresforimprovementsandrepairstoowner-occupiedandrentalpropertiesremainedfarabovepre-pandemiclevels.Thisextraordinaryboomwasdrivenbystronggrowthinthenumberofownersundertakingprojectsandinaveragespending,bolsteredbyahealthylabormarket,record-highpropertyvalues,andaginghomesinneedofinvestment.Manyownerscontinuetoadapttheirpropertiesforchangingneedsanduses,evenastoday’slowerratesofpersonalsavingsandhouseholdmobilitydampenimprovementandrepairspending.

在COVID?19大流行之后，美國住宅翻新市場支出達到了前所未有的高度，2022年飆升至6000億美元以上。盡20232024Significantinflationinthecostsofbuildingmaterialsandlaborcoupledwithalargeandpersistentskilledtradelaborshortagehavechallengednotonlyownersseekingtoupdateandmaintaintheirproperties,butalsoprofessionalcontractingfirms.Overcomingtheseobstaclesisessentialinordertomeetthecurrent

futuredemandformodernizingandpreservingtheinrecentyears,muchmoreinvestmentisrequiredtoenergyefficiency,disasterresiliency,andaccessibilityforthenation’s145millionhomes.

步改善國家1.45億住房的能源效率、災害恢復能力和無障FigureTheHomeRemodelingMarketIsExpectedtoRemainAbove$600Billionin

Figure2025年6000 MarketMarketSpending(Billionsof603300 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023HomeownerImprovements HomeownerMaintenance RentalImprovements RentalMaintenance

MarketSpending(Billionsof 609603300 MarketSpending(Billionsof 609603300 336HomeownerImprovements HomeownerMaintenance RentalImprovements RentalMaintenance

INTRODUCTIONANDSUMMARYNote:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LeadingIndicatorofRemodelingActivity(LIRA).Source:JCHSanalysisofUSDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment(HUD),AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,SurveysofResidentialAlterationsandRepairs(C-50);USINTRODUCTIONANDSUMMARYEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;and

Note:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LeadingIndicatorofRemodelingActivity(LIRA).Source:JCHSanalysisofUSDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment(HUD),AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,SurveysofResidentialAlterationsandRepairs(C-50);USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andREMODELINGEXPENDITURESREMAINELEVATEDThepandemicsparkedaspendingboominimprove-ments—whichincludeprojects,whetherdiscretionaryorrequired,thattypicallyboosthomevalues—andinroutinemaintenanceandrepairsthat

Thesharpincreasesince2019waspropelledbytheowner-occupiedsegment,whichaccountsformorethan80percentoftotalexpenditures.In2023,boththenumberandtheshareofhomeownersspendingonimprovementsremainedabovepre-pandemiclevelsandratesatalmost26millionhouseholds

201980%。2023占比均保持在疫情前水平之上，幾乎達到260萬戶家庭和29.7%。201922006000到6500萬戶，但業主在維護上的支出占比從2019年2023752023preventdepreciation.Sincepeakingat$611billionin2022,theremodelingmarkethascontractedslightlyinthefaceofmixedeconomicandindustrialcondi-remainnearitspeakthrough2025,accordingtothelatestestimatesandprojectionsfromtheJointCenterforHousingStudies.Themarketdeclineintheaftermathofthepandemic

28.0percentofowners,wereundertakingimprove-ments.Theshareofownersspendingonmaintenanceasthenumberincreasedfrom60millionto65million.Onaverage,homeownersspentalmost$4,700onimprovementsin2023,nearly9percentaboveperafteradjustingforinflation.Additionally,averageperownermaintenancespendinghitanewhighof

翻新市場在面臨混合的經濟和工業條件下略有收縮（見圖1）。改善支出接近4.7萬美元，比2007年市場繁榮時期的每戶然而，預計到2025年，支出最終將保持在峰值附近 支出高出近9%，經通脹調整后。此外，平均每戶維護支ofconsumerdemandforhomeimprovementsandtobeshort-livedandmild,especiallycomparedtothepreviousdownturnduringtheGreatRecession,whenfrompeaktotrough(Figure2).TheCenterforecaststhattheremodelingmarketwillreturntogrowthin2025,butataratewellbelowthehistoricalaverageannualgainofabout5percent.

Someearlypandemicshiftsinthecompositionofhomeimprovementspendinghavesincerevertedtopre-pandemictrends.Aggregateimprovementexpendituresbecamemoreconcentratedamonghigh-spendinghouseholdsbetween2021and2023ashomeownersfocusedrelativelylessondo-it-lations.Duringthesameperiod,ownerexpendituresonprojectsthatoftenrequireskilledlabor—such

比，當時房屋改善和維修支出從峰值到谷底下降了17%（見圖表）2025但增長率將遠低于約5

前趨勢。2021年至2023年間，隨著業主相對減少對DIYFigure FigureTheTheRemodelingDownturnIsExpectedtoBeShort-Livedand

200520062007200820092010 201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

10

200520062007200820092010 201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023

ChangeinHomeImprovement&MaintenanceSpendingHistoricalAverageAnnualGrowth

ChangeinHomeImprovement&MaintenanceSpendingHistoricalAverageAnnualGrowthNotes:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LIRA.Historicalaverageannualgrowthisfrom1995to2023.Source:JCHSanalysisofHUD,AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,C-50;USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andLIRA.

Notes:Estimated(e)andforecasted(f)valuesaremodeledusingthe2024:Q4LIRA.Historicalaverageannualgrowthisfrom1995to2023.Source:JCHSanalysisofHUD,AmericanHousingSurveys;USDepartmentofCommerce,RetailSalesofBuildingMaterials;USCensusBureau,C-50;USBureauofEconomicAnalysis,DetailedFixedAssetTables;USBureauofLaborStatistics,ConsumerPriceIndex:RentofPrimaryResidence;andLIRA.JOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITkitchenandbathremodels,interiorreplacementsincludingflooring,systemreplacementslikeelectricalandHVAC,anddisasterrepairs—increasedatafasterpacethantheimprovementmarketoverall.Annualspendingonprofessionallyinstalledprojectsgrew14spendingdeclined13percent.DEMOGRAPHICCHANGESTRANSFORMTHEChanginghomeownerdemographicsareimpactingthesizeandcompositionoftheimprovementmarket.oftotalimprovementoutlays,upfrom14percenttwodecadesearlier.Thisgainreflectsthelargeincreaseinthenumberofolderhomeownersandtheconsid-erablegrowthintheiraveragespending.Between2003and2023,thenumberofownersage65andovergrewby12million,pushingtheirshareofownersfrom24percentto34percent.Overthesametime,theiraverageperownerspendingclimbedfromanmorethantwicethe48percentgrowthinpercapitaspendingamongallhomeowners.

Youngerhomeownershavealsoincreasedtheirimprovementspendinginthepastdecade,althoughtheworseninghousingaffordabilitycrisissuppressestheirranksandtheircontributionstotheremodelingmarket.AfterasteepdeclineinthewakeoftheGreatRecession,thenumberofhomeownersunderage35grew15percentto8millionbetween2015and2023,thanduringthemid-2000shousingboom.Whilerealaggregatespendingbyownersunderage35jumped51percentoverthesameperiod,theirmarketexpen-ditureremained14percentbelowthepriorpeak.Astheoverallpopulationbecomesmoreraciallyandethnicallydiverse,householdsheadedbyapersonofcolorcontributemoretothehomeimprovementmarketdespiteenduringdisparitiesinincome,home-ownership,andhomeequity.In2023,homeownersofcoloraccountedfor23percentofaggregateimprovementexpenditures,upfrom14percentin2003.Thiscorrespondedwithanearly9percentagepointincreaseintheshareofhomeownerhouse-holdsheadedbyapersonofcolor.Immigrantownersaccountforagrowingshareofthemarketaswell,upfrom8percentofaggregateimprovementexpen-dituresin2003to13percentin2023.Foreign-

2021年至2023年間，專業安裝項目的年度支出在真實意義上增長了14%，而DIY支出下降了13%。2023年，65歲及以上的業主貢獻了總改善支出的27%，2014%。這一增長反映了老年業主數量的大幅增加以及他們平均支出的顯著增長。在2003年至2023業主份額從24%推高到34%。在同一時期，他們的人均支出從2003年的通貨膨脹調整后的1800美元增加到2023年的3800美元——比所有業主的人均支出增長48%還要

貢獻。在大衰退之后急劇下降后，2015年至2023年間，35歲以下的房主數量增長了15%，達到800萬，但比20002535房主在同期內的實際總支出增長了51%，但他們的市場支出仍比之前的高峰低14%。房屋所有權和房屋凈值方面仍然存在差距。2023年，有色人種房主占總體改善支出的23%，比2003年的14%增長9920038202313FigureOwnerOwnerMobilityHasDroppedAfteraPandemic-Induced20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022NumberofRecentMoversRecentMoverShareofOwners(Rightscale)Notes:Recentmoversboughttheirhomeswithinthepreviousyear.Estimatesfor2020areomittedduetodatacollectionissuesexperiencedduringthepandemic.Source:JCHStabulationsofUSCensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey1-Year

20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022NumberofRecentMoversRecentMoverShareofOwners(Rightscale)experiencedduringthepandemic.Source:JCHStabulationsofUSCensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey1-Yearownersrepresentmuchlargersharesofmetrohomeimprovementmarketswhereimmigranthouseholdsconstitutegreaterproportionsofhomeowners.Althoughthenumberandshareofhomeownerschangingresidencesincreasedearlyinthepandemic,homeownermobilityhassincedroppedbelowitspre-pandemicrateamidelevatedinterestrates,highAccordingtotheAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS),thenumberofownerswhomovedinthepreviousyearfellfrom5.7millionto4.7millionbetween2021and2023aftergrowingbyabout800,000householdsbetween2019and2021.Elevatedmortgagerateswilllikelycontinuetoconstrictmobility,leavingmanywould-bebuyersunabletoaffordahomeanddisincentivizingownerswithbelow-marketratesfromselling.Homeownermobilitytypicallyboostsimprovementspendingasownerspreparehomesforsaleandbuyersprioritizeimprovementsduringthefirstyearsafterpurchase.Ownerswhoundertakepre-saleproj-ectstypicallyspendtwiceasmuchasownersoverall,whilerecenthomebuyersconsistentlyoutspendnon-moversbymorethanathird.Accordingly,fallingmobilityratesareexpectedtoreducedemandforthesortsofimprovementsthatoftenaccompanyahomesale.However,underthecurrentcircumstances,theordi-narilynegativeeffectoflowermobilityonhomeimprovementspendingmaybesomewhatoffsetbyotherspendingpatternsthatstemfromthedeclineofhousingturnover.Thatis,ownerswhoremaininimprovementstofacilitatelongertenuresandaddresschangingneeds.Forexample,ownersplan-ningtostayputmaydecidethatanewrooforamoreenergy-efficientHVACsystemisabetterinvestmentmarketforcesremainstobeseen.

AGINGHOUSINGSTOCKCALLSFORREINVESTMENTThehousingstockisolderthaneverbefore.Withamedianageof44yearsin2023,thestockhasagedconsiderablysincetheGreatRecessiondrovehome-buildingtohistoriclows(Figure4).Atthesametime,improvementsinbuildingconstructionstandardsandmaterialshaveextendedthelongevityofhomes,furthercontributingtoaging.Butashomesage,moreimprovementsareneededtoreplaceworncompo-nentsandsystems,suchasroofsandHVAC,inaddi-tiontothestandardmaintenance.In2023,averageperownerimprovementspendingforhomesbuiltbefore1980was24percenthigherthanspendingonhomesbuiltsince2010,andaverageperownermaintenancespendingwas76percenthigher.TheongoingagingofthehousingstockwilldrivestrongrepairandimprovementspendingforyearstoPublicandnonprofitassistanceisalsorequiredtoaddressinadequatehousingconditionsforhouse-holdsthatlacktheresourcestofundneededrepairsandupgrades.Homeownerswithlowerincomesspendmuchlessonimprovementandrepairthantheirhigher-incomecounterparts,whichjeopar-dizessafeandhabitablelivingconditions.In2023,averageperownerimprovementandmaintenancespendingamonghomeownerswithannualhouseholdincomesinthelowestquintile(lessthan$37,500)was$3,100comparedto$10,900amongthosewithincomesinthehighestquintile(morethan$172,000).Consequently,6percentofownerswiththelowestincomesliveinmoderatelyorseverelyinadequatehousingthathasstructuraldeficienciesorlacksbasicfeaturessuchasrunningwater,electricity,andheat,nearlydoubletheshareofownersoverall.Thereisbothamarketopportunityandamoralimperativeforexpandingdirecthomeimprovementandrepairservices,financingtools,andcounselingprogramsthathelptopreservetheaffordablehousingstockandensurethatallhouseholdsliveinsafeandadequatehousing.

流動性自那時以來已降至疫情前的水平（見圖3）。根據美國社區調查（ACS），2021年至2023年間，上一年搬家的房主數量從570萬下降到470萬，而在2019年HVAC系統比臨時維修投資更好。這些相互對抗的市場

住房庫存比以往任何時候都要老。2023歲，自大衰退迫使住宅建設達到歷史低點以來，庫存已經顯著老齡化（4）。與此同時，建筑構造標準和材料的改進延長了房屋的使用壽命，進一步加劇了老齡化。但是，隨著房屋的變老，需要更多的改善來更換磨損的組件HVAC，以及標準維護。2023201024%76%。住房庫存的持續老齡化將在未來幾年推動強勁的維修和改善支出。還需要公共和非營利機構的援助來解決缺乏資金進行必要維修和升級的家庭的住房條件不足問題。低收入房主的改善和維修支出遠低于高收入房主，這威脅到安全和適宜的居住條件。2023（375003100109006FigureFigureFigureFigureJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITTheHousingStockHasAgedMedianAgeofHousingUnits

TheHousingStockHasAgedMedianAgeofHousingUnits Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied All

Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied All

Note:AllincludesvacantSource:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousing

Note:AllincludesvacantSource:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousingIMPROVEMENTSPENDINGInconfrontingglobalclimatechange,theneedtoimprovetheenergyperformanceanddisasterresilienceofthehousingstockgrowsincreasinglyurgent.Themarketforhomeimprovementproj-ectsthatinfluenceandthushavethepotentialtoreducehomeenergyconsumption,suchasroofing,HVAC,andwindows,hasnearlyquadrupledinthelasttwodecadescomparedtoatriplingofoverallspending.SpurredinpartbyincentivesforenergyretrofitsfollowingtheGreatRecession,theshareofaggregatehomeownerspendingonenergy-relatedmorethan7percentagepointsto36percentandhassincemaintainedanelevatedmarketshare.In2023,projectsthataffecthomeenergyuseaccountedforpercentofthenationaltotal.Inaddition,17percentofhomeowners(nearly15millionhouseholds)reportedundertakingoneormoreprojectsintheprevioustwoyearsexplicitlytoimproveenergyefficiency.Furtherincreasesinenergy-relatedremodelingare

taxcredits.In2023,thefirstfullyearthatthelaw’scleanenergyandenergy-efficienthomeimprove-menttaxcreditswereavailable,morethan3.4milliontaxfilersclaimedthesecreditsforsuchprojectsasrooftopsolarinstallations,insulation,windows,andelectricheatpumps.Thesefilingsindicategrowingconsumerinterestinanddemandforenergy-relatedupgrades.Evenwiththeincreasedspending,muchofthehousingstockstillrequiresextensiveretrofitstoimprovehomeenergyperformance.Housingisalsoimpactedbythechangingclimatethroughthegrowingfrequencyandintensityofhazardeventslikehurricanes,tornadoes,wildfires,andflooding.Homeownerspendingfordisasterrepairshastrendedupinallregionsofthecountry,totaling$49billionin2022–2023,ascomparedto$16billionin2002–2003afteradjustingforinflation(Figure5).AggregatespendinggrowthhasbeenespeciallystrongintheNortheast,buttheSouthandtheWesthavealsohadabove-averagegains.Meanwhile,disasterrepairspendingasashareofnationalimprovementexpendituresincreasedfromanaverageof4.4percentinthedecadebefore2004to6.4percentinthedecadesince2013.

改造激勵措施，2009年至2011年間，家庭主人在能73620231400占全國總量的34%。此外，17%的家庭主人在過去兩年中2022

《稅收減免法案》（IRA），包括住宅翻新退稅和稅收抵免。2023年，該法案的清潔能源和節能住宅改善稅收抵免首次可用，超過340萬納稅人申報了這些抵免，用于屋頂地房主的災害修復支出呈上升趨勢，2022?2023年總額達到490億美元，而經通脹調整后，2002?2003年的總額160（5）。綜合支出增長在東北部尤為強20044%上升到2013年之后的6.4FigureSpendingforDisasterRepairsIsTrendingUpAcrosstheDisasterRepairSpending(Billionsof2023

FigureDisasterRepairSpending(Billionsof2023 WestWest2002–20032004–20052006–2007

MidwestSouth

ShareofTotalImprovementSpending(Rightscale)

MidwestSouth WestShareofTotalImprovementSpending(Rightscale)Notes:Disasterrepairsareasubsetofimprovementspendingonowner-occupiedhomes.ExpendituresareadjustedforinflationusingtheCPI-UforAllItems.Source:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousing

Notes:Disasterrepairsareasubsetofimprovementspendingonowner-occupiedhomes.ExpendituresareadjustedforinationusingtheCPI-UforAllItems.Source:JCHStabulationsofHUD,AmericanHousingTheneedremainsfordisastermitigationretrofitsthatmakehomesmoreresilientagainstweather-andclimate-relatedhazardsandreducefuturedamage.winds,elevatingmechanicalequipmentsuchasHVACandwaterheatersorentirehomesabovefloodlevels,andreplacingexteriormaterialswithnoncombustiblealternatives.Althoughfewhomeownersundertakemitigationprojects,thereareincreasingmotivatorstodoso,includingskyrocketinghazardinsurancepremiums.Thenationalaveragehomeownerinsur-ancepremiumjumped17percentbetween2021and(AHS).Risinginsurancecostsaswellasincreasingdisasterexposurewillalmostcertainlydrivegrowthinthedisastermitigationmarket.SUPPLY-SIDECHALLENGESDespitegrowingconcentrationamonglarger-scalefirmsandnotableprivateequityinvestment,mergers,andacquisitions,theresidentialremodelingindustryremainshighlyfragmented,withlargesharesofself-employedcontractorsandsmallpayrollbusi-nesses.Nearlytwo-thirdsofgeneralremodelingcontractorswithpayrollshadrevenuesofless

$500,000atlastmeasurein2017.Consequently,theremodelingsectorsuffershighratesofbusinessclos-ingsevenduringstrongmarkets.Thetypicalgeneralremodelingbusinessemploysfewerthanfourstaff,evenasthenumberoftheseestablishmentswithpayrollshasgrownrapidlysincetheGreatRecession.Thisongoingfragmentationhindersthecapacityofprofessionalcontractorstomeetdemand.Theremodelingindustryisfurtherconstrainedbytheandlaborsincethepandemic.Shortagesoflaboralsoworkerssuchascarpenters,masons,electricians,andplumbers,accordingtotheNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders(NAHB)(Figure6).Theconstructionmanyyears,withimmigrantsaccountingforarecord-breaking34percentoftheskilledtradeslaborforceinandfemaleworkers,aswellasnon-Hispanicpeopleoftheworkforce,butmoremustbedonetomeetcurrentandfuturelaborneeds.

將機械設備如HVAC和水加熱?或整個住宅提升到洪水水包括飆升的災害保險費率。根據美國住房調查（AHS），20212023

截至2017年最后一次測量，金額為50萬美元。因此，即根據美國住宅建筑商協會（NAHB）的數據，2015年2023（如木匠、者，2023年移民占熟練工種勞動力總數的創紀錄的34%。FigureFigureFigureFigureJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERIMPROVINGAMERICA’SHOUSINGJOINTCENTERFORHOUSINGSTUDIESOFHARVARDUNIVERSITMostRemodelersContinuetoExperienceSkilledTradeLaborShareofRemodelersReportingSomeorSeriousShortagesofSubcontractorLabor

ShareofRemodelersReportingSomeorSeriousShortagesofSubcontractorLabor

Note:Dataareaveragesofthefollowingtrades:roughandfinishedcarpenters,electricians,excavators,framingcrews,roofers,plumbers,masons,painters,weatherizationworkers,andHVACworkers.Source:JCHStabulationsofNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders/WestlakeRoyal,RemodelingMarket

Note:Dataareaveragesofthefollowingtrades:roughandnishedcarpenters,electricians,excavators,framingcrews,roofers,plumbers,masons,painters,weatherizationworkers,andHVACworkers.Source:JCHStabulationsofNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders/WestlakeRoyal,RemodelingMarketInvestmentsinconstructionresearchanddevelop-mentholdpromiseforbothdecreasingthecostsandincreasingtheproductivityofthecurrentlaborforce.elingandrepairhavebeenminimal.Advancementsinpredictivetechnologiesthatusedatafromsensorsorpropertyinspectionstoidentifyneededrepairsorimprovementsarepromisingforexpandingdemand.Buttheremodelingindustry’scapacitytoinvestintheseandothertechnologies,trainings,orbuildingconstructionandmaterialinnovationsislimitedbyitshighfragmentation.THEInthenearterm,theremodelingindustryfacesbothchallengesandopportunities.Ontheonehand,elevatedinterestrates,weakhomesales,highlaborandmaterialcosts,andapersistentshortageofskilledlaborareexpectedtoconstrainthemarket.Atthesametime,massivelevelsofhomeequity,

sustainedshifttowardworkingfromhome,favor-abledemographics,andtheagingofthehousingstockwillsupportsignificantinvestmentinhomeimprovementsandmaintenance,perhapsmostnotablyamongownerswhoprioritizeupdatingtheirexistinghomesovermoving.Theremodelingmarkethasfurtheropportunitiestoadapthomestoaddressdeficienciesinaccessibility,energyefficiency,anddisasterresilience.Giventhestrongfoundationandgrowingneeds,resi-dentialremodelingisexpectedtoremainaformidableeconomicsector.Improvementsandrepairstotheexistinghousingstockhaveconstitutedamajorityanunforeseenboominhomebuilding,thistrendisanticipatedtolast.Homeimprovementandrepairspendingislikelytoremainneartherecentpeakandthereforeshouldcontinuetoplayasignificantroleinresidentialinvestments.

Theresidentialremodelingmarketsoaredtonewheightsinthewakeofthepandemic,drivenbystronggainsinboththenumberofpropertyownerspursuingprojectsandaveragespendinglevels.Expendi-turesforimprovementsandrepairstoowner-occupiedandrentalpropertiestopped$600billionin2022.Thoughtheremodelingmarketcooledin2023,spendinglevelsremainedelevatedasowners“lockedinplace”byhighinterestratesandhomepricesundertookprojectstomeettheirchangingneedsoverlongertenures.Withthephenomenalgrowthinrenovationandrepairspending,themarkethasfarsurpassedthepriormid-2000speak,evenafteradjustingforconsiderablepriceinflation.

2022年，業主自住和出租物業的改善和維修支出超過了6000億美元。盡管2023年翻新市場有所降溫，但由于高利率和房價，業主鎖定位置”，支出水平仍然很高，他們進行了項目以滿足長期需求的變化。隨著翻新和維修支出的驚人增長，市場已經遠遠超過了調整后的2000年代中期峰值。REMODELINGMARKETSINTRANSITIONPANDEMICFUELSUNPRECEDENTEDSPENDINGREMODELINGMARKETSINTRANSITIONThedramaticimpactsofthepandemiconhouseholdpreferences,behaviors,andhousingwealthresultedinenormousinvestmentinimprovementsandrepairstotheexistinghousingstock.Spendinginthehomeremodelingmarketskyrocketed51percentfrom$404latestestimatesfromtheCenter.Thiswasanaverageannualgainof10.8percent—morethantwicethemarket’shistoricalaverageof4.2percentfro