金融大數(shù)據(jù)創(chuàng)業(yè)案例燒了五千萬美元的教訓(xùn)12ParallelUniverseGFW3Aboutme4BankingGoogleCheckoutAdwordsGoogleMapStartup(today’sstory)SocialmediaadvertisingStartupAdvisor5TheIdea6ABetterGroupon7What’sWrongwithGroupon?What’sWrongwithGroupon?PlatformSellersBuyersTheIdeaHelpretailers/merchantstosendhighlytargetedandrelevantpromotionalofferstoconsumerswhohavehighinterestsintheirproduct“Take$10offanypurchaseatXYZstore,offerexpiresin10days”Whereisthedata?Whereisdata?MerchantsthemselvesOnlinetrafficlogsPOSmachineBanks…Howdowegetthedata?Howdowegetthedata?Banksdon’thavetechnology&expertisetodoitrightPartnershipwithbanksWin-winproposalwithpartnersBothonlineandoff-lineWegotdata!Wegotdata!6outoftop8majorbanksCreditcard/debitcardAnonymizedtransactionleveldata2+yearsofhistoricaldata+dailyrefreshesNowwhat?Bigdata!

Machinelearning!

Bigdata!

Machinelearning!

Butbeforethat…

DataProcessingGeodata:locationofstores,locationofcustomersMatchtransactiontolocation/storeCategoryofstoresNatureofthetransaction(online,phone,mobile,etc.)BankregulationsAggregationlevelDataProcessingConsumerTransactionDataRetailerDataHDFSPostgresqlaggregationPredictiveModelingConsumerbehaviorpredictionRetailer1Retailer2Retailer3…RetailerNConsumer1???Consumer2??Consumer3???Consumer4??…ConsumerM??“Wheredoyourcustomersalsospendmoneyat?”AgreattoolforSales/MarketingIdentifypotentialclientsCompetitoranalysisStrong/weakstores/areasCross-categorypromotionsPredictiveModelingInputvariables:location,userspend,shoppingfrequency,categorypreference,timing,etc.Output:purchaseprobability,purchaseamountUser1User2UserM…Retail1Retail2RetailN…User1User2UserM…Retail1Retail2RetailN…Forevery(user,retailer)pair,everyweekPredictingprobabilityofapurchaseCouponvsOrganicOnlinevsofflineNewcustomervsexistingcustomerNewcustomerincategoryvsexistingcustomerincategoryShoppingfrequencydifferencebetweencategoriesBirthdays,annualeventsMatchrate:redemptionreallyhappened?PredictingspendamountRankingofhistoricalspendExistingcustomersIn-categorycustomersHowtodefinecategories?OptimizationProfitableoffers:Applyfilteratretailerlevel,dependingoncoupontypeWhatwecareabout:TotalRevenuesum((expectedspend–discount)*profitmargin*expectedresponserate)Sumoverallusers,maximumoneretailerperuserResponsevolumesum(expectedresponserate)Retailerlevel,maximumoneretailerperuserOtherfactorsOptimizationBalancebetweenmultipleobjectivesandconstraintsTextbookoptimizationproblemLargescalelinear/quadraticprogrammingmodelTheFinalProduct:ConsumerexperienceRegularlyusingcreditcardReceivedamessageaboutastore-specificcoupon:EmailWebMobileGeo-fencingNeedtouseinoneortwoweeksTransactionhappenasusualDiscountappliedoncreditcardstatementTheFinalProduct:MerchantExperienceRunaspecificpromotionprogramNotraininginvolvedEngagedcustomerscomeforpurchasesTheFinalProduct:BankExperienceDatasharingReceivedataandsendoffersouttoconsumersReceiveshareofrevenueFastForward3years…BanksMerchantsConsumersWe’rehereInvestorsWhereweareSiliconValleybased50+employeesfromGoogle,Visa,Yahooetc.3roundsof$50M+VCfundraised100+clients,10M+usersAccuratepredictiononconsumerbehaviororotherwiseHighlytargetedpromotionaloffersfromrelevantretailersWhatcouldgowrong?MeetwithReality–technologyBalancebetweenmultipleobjectivesandconstraintsMaximizetotalrevenuewhilekeepingresponserate>=x%Maximizeoverallresponseratewhilekeepingtotalrevenue>=$XMaximizetotalredemptionvolumewhilekeepingrevenue>=$XHowtobalance?N-1Constraints,1objectivefunctionLinearcombinationofobjectivesMeetwithReality–technologyCustomizedcomplexmodelsTakeshourstofinishInfeasiblestatesolutionaddapre-optimizationprocesstoevaluate(rough)feasibilitywithoutactuallygettingasolutionMeetwithReality–technologyRealdataisdifferentfromlabsimulationExample:RedemptionratealothigherthanorganicbehaviorSpendamountoncouponredemptionisverydifferenttooModelneedtohaveroomforsuchadjustmentsOverall,wehaveahighperformingproductwithhighaccuracypredictionandoptimizednetworkyieldMeetwithReality–BusinessModelCooperativePartnersareextremelyimportantBanks,merchants,investors,andconsumersAllcomponentsHASTOWORK!Significantchallengesduringproductdevelopment,launchandbusinessdevelopmentMeetwithReality–BanksRegulationsSpeedinproductdevelopmentDatasharing/pipeline,frequencyLevelofdatadetails,itemspurchasedCommunicationstoconsumersExclusiverelationshipMeetwithReality–MerchantsRegulations:tobacco,medicine,etc.ProductspecificpromotionsDouble-dippingAdoptionofnewtechnolog