IEF-GlobalOilInventoriesDataReport

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Contents

ListofAbbreviations 4

ListofTables 5

ListofGraphics 5

ExecutiveSummary 6

1.Introduction 9

2.HistoricalPatternsinfluencingOilInventoriesandMarketPerformance 11

3.CurrentSituationofReportingonOilInventories 13

3.1.JODICurrentStatus:Partners’OilInventoriesDataReporting 13

3.1.1.IEF 13

3.1.2.APEC 15

3.1.3.EUROSTAT 17

3.1.4.IEA 18

3.1.5.OLADE 20

3.1.6.OPEC 22

3.1.7.UNSD 26

3.2.PartnerPublications 26

3.2.1.EUROSTAT 27

3.2.2.IEA 27

3.2.3.OPEC 28

3.2.4.UNSD 28

3.3.OtherKeyDataProviders 28

3.3.1.EIA 28

3.3.2.OECD 28

3.4.CommercialSecondarySources 29

4.KeyFindings-KeyIssues 29

5.Recommendations 36

6.Conclusion 38

7.References 39

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ListofAbbreviations

A:Availabledata

APEC:AsiaPacificEconomicCooperation

API:AmericanPetroleumInstitute

DoC:DeclarationofCooperation

EIA:TheUSEnergyInformationAdministration

EUROSTAT:StatisticalOfficeoftheEuropeanUnion

G20:Groupof20

IEA:InternationalEnergyAgency

IEF:InternationalEnergyForum

JODI:JointOrganisationsDataInitiative

LSEG:LondonStockExchangeGroup

M-1readsasMminusone:themonthbeforethecurrentmonthM-2readsasMminustwo:twomonthsbeforethecurrentmonth

MOMR:MonthlyOilMarketReportN/A:NotAvailable

OECD:OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

OLADE:LatinAmericanEnergyOrganization

OPEC:OrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries

SPR:StrategicPetroleumReserves

UAE:UnitedArabEmirates

UN:UnitedNations

UNSD:UnitedNationsStatisticsDivision

US:UnitedStatesofAmerica

WTI:WestTexasIntermediate

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ListofTables

Table1.APECReportingStatusonClosingStockData2024*Table2.APECReportingStatusonStockChangeData2024*

Table3.EUROSTATReportingonClosingStocksandStockChangeDataStatus2024*Table4.IEAClosingStocksandStockChangeDataReportingStatusbycountry2024*Table5.OPECReportingStatusonClosingStockData2024*

Table6.OPECReportingStatusonStockChangeData2024*

Table7.DoCnon-OPECCountriesReportingStatus2024*ClosingStocks

Table8.DoCnon-OPECCountriesReportingStatus2024*StockChange

Table9.UNSDClosingStocksandStockChangeDataReportingStatus2024*Table10.StatusofOECDStockDataAvailabilityinJODI2024*

Table11.StatusofNon-OECDStockDataAvailabilityinJODI2024*

ListofGraphics

Graph1.EvolutionofJODIReportingonClosingStocksData2002-2024*Graph2.EvolutionofJODIReportingonStockChangeData2002-2024*

Graph3.APECOilInventoriesReportingStatus2024*ClosingStocksandStockChange

Graph4.NumberofcountrieswithavailableClosingStocksandStockChangeDataEUROSTAT2024*

Graph5.IEAAvailabilityofClosingStocksandStockChangeData2024*

Graph6.OLADEClosingStocksDataReportingtoJODI2019-2022Graph7.OLADEStockChangeDataReportingtoJODI2019-2022Graph8.OPECReportingtoJODIStatus2024*ClosingStocks

Graph9.OPECReportingtoJODIStatus2024*StockChange

Graph10.EvolutionofOECDandNon-OECDOilDemand1965-2023

Graph11.OECDandNon-OECDOilDemand2003Graph12.OECDandNon-OECDOilDemand2013Graph13.OECDandNon-OECDOilDemand2023

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ExecutiveSummary

Datatransparencyintheglobaloilmarketisacriticalandanintegratedprocessthatrequirescontinuousreporting,processing,tracking,evaluationandmonitoringatmultiplelevels,toensuremarketstabilityandoptimizesupply-demandbalances.Oilinventoryorstocksdataplayakeyroleinthisprocess,servingasindicatorsthatinformonmarketconditionsandfundamentals.Theinterconnectednatureofoilinventoriesandmarketperformancehasbeendemonstratedthroughouthistory.

Oilinventorieshelptomanagefluctuationsindemandandsupplyduringcrisesandunforeseeneventsbyensuringsufficientvolumesofoilareavailabletomeetmarketneeds,notablyduringperiodsofhighdemandorsupplydisruptions.Elevatedinventorylevelscanmutemarketincentivesandpotentiallyslowupstreaminvestment,causingpriceswingsovertimeduetothelongleadtimesbetweeninvestmentandproduction.Meanwhilelowinventorylevelscancreatespikesatelevatedpricelevelsandmayleadtoover-investment.

Dataonglobaloilstoragecapacityisalsoacriticalelementasexcesssupplycouldredirectadditionalcrudeproductiontostoragefacilities.Forinstance,duringthebreakthroughoftheshalerevolutionin2014-2016,globaloilandgasmarketsmovedfromrelativescarcitytoabundance.Asaconsequence,OPECandnon-OPECproducersmeetingalongsidetheIEF15InternationalEnergyMinisterial,heldinAlgiers,AlgeriaonSeptember26–28,2016,decidedtoreducetheirlong-cycleconventionaloilproductionlevelstolowerthelevelofoilstockpilesandrevitalizethemarketwhileaccommodatingmoreshort-cycleunconventionalshaleoilproduction.

Afewyearslater,theCOVID-19pandemiclockdownscausedanunprecedenteddropinglobaloildemand.Consequently,oilinventoriesroserapidlytoreachcapacity.ThisledtheWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudefuturestotradeatnegativepricelevelsinApril2020.Oiltraders’determinationtopayforhavingbarrelstakenoffthemarket,combinedwithG20countries’resolvetotakejointmeasurestolimitsuppliesinconcertwith“OPECplus”producersundertheDeclarationofCooperation,markedahighpointininternationalenergymarketsolidarityenabledbytheG20PresidencyofSaudiArabiaandtheUSTrumpAdministration.

ThebreakthroughalsocapitalizedonthegoodwillbuildupbytheIEFproducer-consumerdialogueoverthepreviousdecadesandhighlightedtheneedformorecompleteandgranulardataonglobaloilinventories,includinglevels,changes,andcapacitymetrics,torestoreandbettermaintainenergymarketstability.

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TheIEFismandatedtomaintainaconstructiveproducer-consumerdialogueincludingbyreleasingofficialorbestavailablemonthlyoilinventorydataregularly,toinformgovernmentandindustrydecisionsandenableanevidence-basedandfactualdiscussiononenergysecurityandorderlyandjusttransitions.

Thefollowingkeyfindingsfurtherinformthisreport:

1.Oilinventoriesremainimportantforenergysecurity,priceformation,marketstabilityandriskmanagementbyproducersandconsumergovernmentsandmarketstakeholders

2.OECDoilinventorydatareportingsetsaninternationalstandardforofficialoilinventorydatareporting.

3.Thoughthereisalwaysroomforimprovement,asoildemandgrowthshiftsfromtheOECDtothenon-OECDregion,similarorequivalentreportingstandardsbecomemoreimportant.

4.Anyeventualdeclineinoildemandgrowthandaspirationstotransitionawayfromfossilfuelswillmakeofficialoilinventorydataevenmorerelevanttodecision-makingbypolicymakers,investorsandriskmanagers.

5.Overcomingoilinventory,andotherkeyenergymarkettransparencydatagapsisbestaddressedbygreaterengagementamongIEFgovernmentsandJODIpartnerorganizations.

ThroughtheJointOrganizationsDataInitiative(JODI)launchedin2005,theIEFcoordinateseffortstoensuretheavailabilityofcomplete,timely,accessible,andupdatedenergymarketdatafromofficialgovernmentsourceswhicharemembersoftheeightinternationalpartnerorganizationsofJODI.

Thisreportalsoprovidesanup-to-datestatusofJODIreportingonoilinventories,identifiescurrentissuesproposesavenuesforfutureenhancementsanddevelopments.Italsofocusesontheoverallqualityandreliabilityofglobaloilinventoryinformationwithaviewtoultimatelyincreasingtransparencyandcontributingtomoreinformeddecision-making.

ThepresentreportunderscoresthecriticalimportanceoftransparencyinoilinventorydataforbothOECDandnon-OECDnations.Thistransparencyisbecomingmorevitalasglobaloildemandgrowthexperiencesshifts,surgesanddeclinesacrossvariousregionsthathighlighttheneedforaccurateandreadilyaccessiblegovernmentdatatoinformmarketstrategiesandpolicydecisions.Moreover,transparencyamongvariousoildatasourceswithinacountryisessential,includingStrategicPetroleumReserves(SPR),commercialstoragefacilities,refiningcompanies,andotherstakeholders.

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Thefindingsshowthatproducer-consumerpolicydialogueandcollaborationneedtobestrengthened,includingbymobilizingthesupportofallJODIpartnersandgovernmentalbodiestoimproveofficialdatareportingontheJODIplatform,particularlywithrespecttothecurrentlyidentifiedgapsintheoilinventoriesdata.Thesegapsaretranslatingintoalackofdataavailability,notablyamongtheworld’slargestenergyconsumersandproducers.Ifmadeavailablefromofficialsources,thisdatawouldreinforcemarkettransparency,enhancestability,andpreventunnecessaryorexcessiveinvestmentinoilinventoriesattheindividualcountrylevel.

Acknowledgingtheevolvinglandscapeoftheglobalenergymarketanddemandconditions,itisimportanttonotetheevolutionandchangesinpartnerorganizations,countrymembershipandobserver,candidateorassociationstatusorotherformsofcollaboration,whileremainingmembersoftheIEF.ItisrecommendedthatcountriesreviewandreinforcetheircollaborationwiththerelevantJODIorganizationsindatareporting.

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1.Introduction

Oilinventoriesplayapivotalroleinprovidinginsightsintomarketconditionsandorderflows,servingasafundamentalcomponentofsupplyanddemanddynamics.Changesinstocklevels,whetheranincreaseordecreaseininventories,reflectsupplystages,anddemanddirections.Thesechangesinformcrudepricemechanismsandconsequentlyinfluenceenergypricesinbothphysicalandfinancialmarkets.

Inventorydatareflectsthestocklevelsofoilstoredthroughouttheentirecrudevaluechain,includingproductionsites,transportationhubs,refineries,andcommercialandstrategicstoragefacilities.Thisinformationhelpsshapetheevolutionofshort-,medium-,andlong-termtradingpositions.

Therearethreemaintypesofstoragethatgatheroilinventories:EmergencyorStrategicReserves,whichareheldtoensureenergysecurityincaseofsignificantsupplydisruptions;CommercialStocks,whicharemaintainedtorespondtoregularmarketfluctuations;andIn-Transitinventories,whichconsistofcrudeoilbeingtransportedviapipelines,tankers,railcars,ortrucksbuthavenotyetreachedtheirstorageofftakeorprocessingdestination.

Trackingandmonitoringoilinventoriesisvitaltoassessoilmarketstabilityandtheoilsupply-demandbalanceandisakeydeterminantofglobalenergysecurity.Inventoriesfunctionasasafetymeasuretoshieldagainstsupplydisruptionscausedbyforcemajeureevents,suchasnaturalcatastrophesincludingextremeweatherandseismicevents(hurricanes,earthquakesandtsunamis),geopoliticalrisks,oranyotherunforeseensituationthatcouldimpactnegativelythebalanceofoilandenergymarkets.

Intermsofsupply,inventoriesserveasaregulatorforproducers’performance,allowingthemtosystematicallyadjusttheirproductionlevelstomeetthevolumesrequiredbytheoilmarketandavoidanyover-orunder-supplysituations.Asuddenorstructuralimbalanceinoilsupplyanddemandcouldleadtoexcessivepricevolatilityandinterferewithinvestmentcycles.Thisdoesnotonlyaffectfirms’andproducers’financialresultsbutalsoimpactsfinancialmarketstabilityinproducerandconsumercountries,aswellaswidermacro-economicbalance.Oilinventorieshelptomanagefluctuationsindemandandsupplybyensuringthatthereissufficientoilinventoryavailabletomeetmarketneedsduringperiodsofhighdemandorfalteringsupply.Bymaintainingsufficientoilinventorylevels,companiesandgovernmentscanhelpstabilizepricesandreduceextrememarketvolatility.

Intermsofdemand,oilinventorydataserveasapivotalbarometerforunderstandingandforecastingconsumptiontrajectories.Inventorylevelsfunctionasacriticalindicatorofmarketbalanceandusagepatterns.Adrawdownincrudeinventoriestypicallysignalsthatconsumptionisoutpacingproduction,hintingatrobustuptakeandpotentiallyhigherpriceaction.Market

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participants,includingtraders,researchers,andinvestors,closelyscrutinizeweeklystockpilebulletinstoassessshort-termdemandandmakedata-drivendecisions.Theseinventoryfluctuationsnotonlymirrorcurrentofftakebutalsoshapefuturepricingandextractionstrategies.Insightsgainedfromoilinventorydatacontributetomanagingreal-timeandshort-termrisksrelatedtooilsupplychainsthroughtheimplementationoffinancialinstrumentstoovercomedisruptionsandpricevolatility,aswellastoensurepolicyandregulatorycomplianceamidstmarketchanges.Inthelongerrun,governmentsandcompaniesalsorelyonoilinventorydata,includingvolumes,capacities,andchanges,toelaborateappropriateenergysecuritymechanismsandoilmarketstrategies.Thesestrategiesencompassproductionadjustments,investmentdecisionsforthedevelopmentofexistingandnewproductionandinfrastructurecapacities,aswellaswidermacroeconomicpolicyformulation.

Monitoringglobalenergymarketdata,particularlyoilinventorydata,isanessentialpartoftheIEFproducer-consumerdialogue,whichledtotheestablishmentoftheJointOrganizationsDataInitiative(JODI)in2005.TheobjectiveofJODIistoensurethatenergymarketdatafromofficialgovernmentsourcesiscomplete,comprehensive,readilyaccessible,timely,andregularlyupdated.Thisgoalhasgainedincreasingsignificanceovertimeduetoshiftsinenergytransitionsandoildemandgrowth,particularlyasdemandmovesfromadvancedOECDcountriestonon-OECDgrowtheconomies.Intheseareas,oilinventorydatafromofficialsourcesisoftenunderreported,makingitchallengingtoaccuratelyassessmarketconditions.Governmentsandoilmarketstakeholdershaveincreasinglyrecognizedtheneedfortransparencyintheoilmarketduetodevelopmentsthatheightenuncertaintyforallpartiesinvolved.Thisconcernisparticularlypressingifoilinventorydatareportingdoesnotmeetwell-establishedinternationalstandards.TheIEFplaysacrucialroleinpromotingthistransparencythroughitsproducer-consumerdialogueandthecoordinationofJODI(Seealso

ExtraordinaryIEFMinisterialMeeting|IEF)

.

Thegrowingimportanceofenhancedproducer-consumerdialogueandimprovingenergymarketdatatransparencywasreiteratedintheG20CommuniquéofG20EnergyMinistersmeetingheldinRiyadh,SaudiArabiaonSeptember27-28,2020.TheCommuniquéextendedan“invitationfortheIEFincooperationwiththeIEAandtheOPEC,undertheumbrellaofJODIandtrilateralagreement,totakestepswiththeaimtofillthegapindatatransparencyformorecomprehensiveenergydatacoverageandanalysisincooperationwithotherinternationalandregionalorganizations.”(G20,2020).

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Heightenedgeopoliticaltensionsandgeoeconomicshifts,aswellasrisinguncertaintiesinenergymarketsduetoenergytransitionpolicies,underscorethecriticalimportanceofmoreregularandefficientreportingonoilinventoriesandinparticularontheJODIplatformsetupforthispurpose.Enhancedcollaborationamonginternationalorganizationsandgovernmentofficialstoimproveoilinventorydatawillreinforcetrustandinvestorconfidence,helpingtomeetenergysecurity,sustainabledevelopment,andclimatetargetsinanorderlyandjustmanner.

2.HistoricalPatternsinfluencingOilInventoriesandMarketPerformance

Oilinventoriesandoilmarketperformanceareinterconnectedandmutuallyinfluential,expressingameasureofmarketstabilitythatcanbesustainableforbothproducersandconsumers.Inthissection,afewkeyexamplesarepresented.

NaturalDisasters,HurricanesKatrina&Rita(2005)andHarvey(2017)

Naturaldisasters,suchashurricanesrecordedin2005and2017,havesignificantlyimpactedoilactivitiesontheUSGulfCoast,severelydisruptingbothoilproductionandrefiningoperations.Theresultingshutdownsledtoasubstantialdrawdownincrudeoilinventoriesassupplywastemporarilybutsignificantlyreduced,causingaspikeinoilpricesduetoconsumerconcernsoversupplyshortages.Tobettermonitortheevolvingsituation,oilinventorylevelswerereportedhourly.Thisfrequentreportingofreadilyavailableoilinventorydatahadacalmingeffectonconsumerbehavior,therebyreducingoilpricevolatility.

2008,TheFinancialCrisis

Theglobalfinancialcrisisof2008causedasevereeconomicdownturnandledtoasignificantdeclineinglobaloilandenergydemand.Oilprices,whichhadpeakedatover$140/bblinJuly2008,collapsedtolessthan$40/bblbyDecember2008.Thissharpdropinpricesreflectedastructurallossofdemand,whichinturnledtoanoversupplysituationthatsystematicallyraisedthelevelofglobaloilinventories,resultinginsignificantbuildups.Oilinventoriesalsoplayedacrucialroleinriskregulationbyenablingmarketactorstostoreoilvolumespurchasedatlowpricesandselltheminanupward“contango”markettrend.Thisstrategyensuredtherecuperationofreturnsbasedonhighertrendingoilfuturespricelevels,allowingthemarkettoreallocateexcesssuppliesovertime.Governmentsalsocontributedtostabilizingpricesbyreplenishinggovernment-operatedStrategicPetroleumReserves(SPRs).Thisapproachservedtwopurposes:tocost-effectivelysecureoilsupplyinthefaceoffuturedomesticorinternationalmarketdisruptions,and

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totakeadvantageoflowoilpricestobuildupreserves.Additionally,thelowoilpriceenvironmentincentivizedmarketactorstoincreasetheircommercialstorage.Thesedynamicsinvolvingoilinventorieshelpedtoeasetheamplitudeofpriceswingsacrosstheoilmarket,rebalancedthemarkets,supportedrecovery,andfacilitatedagradualreturnofoildemandgrowth.

2014-2016,TheUSShaleOilRevolutionandSupplyAbundance

Thesharpdeclineinoilprices,fromover$100/bblinmid-2014tobelow$30/bblearly2016,wasmainlycausedbythebreakthroughoftheUSshaleoilproductionininternationalmarkets.Unconventionalhorizontaldrillingtechniques,innovativefrackingmethods,androbustfinancialmarketsinitiallyledtooilimportsubstitutionintheUSandgreatercompetitionininternationaloilmarketsthroughthedisplacementofexistingvolumestoothergrowthmarkets.Therepealofthe40-year-oldUSbanoncrudeoilexportsbyCongressinDecember2015markedahistoricturningpointintheUSjourneytobecomingthelargestoilandgasproducertoday,reshapinginternationalenergymarketsbycreatingamoreabundantlyanddiverselysuppliedoilmarket.Thisledtoanadditionalbuild-upinglobaloilinventoriesthatsurpassedfive-yearaveragelevelswhileoilpricesfelltowhatproducersconsideredunsustainablylowlevels,requiringproductionreadjustmenttorebalanceinternationalmarketsandsustainadequateupstreaminvestment.Tostabilizeandreviveinvestorconfidence,OPECandnon-OPECproducerssignedapivotalDeclarationofCooperation,agreeingtoadjustproductionlevelsinSeptember2016attheirspecialOPEC-non-OPECmeeting,hostedbyAlgeriaonSeptember26-28,2016,inAlgiersalongsidetheIEF15InternationalEnergyMinisterial.

TheRoleofStrategicReservesinStabilizingMarketPerformanceDuringCrisis

In2011,theUSSPRsandIEAmembercountriesreleasedoilvolumestocompensatefordisruptionsoriginatingfromoutagesinLibyaduringtheFirstLibyanCivilWarandNATO-ledinterventiontoimplementUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilResolution(UNSCR)1973.Thisdecisionaimedtoensureoilmarketstability,thoughitsmeritsweredebated.Incontrast,duringperiodsofmoderateoilpricevolatilityandlowprices,asseenin2015and2016,majorconsumerslikeChinatookadvantageoffavorablemarketconditionstobuilduptheirstrategicoilreservesandcommercialinventories.Thislarge-scalepurchasinghelpedstabilizeglobaloilpricesbyestablishingadefactopricefloorwhileabsorbingsignificantvolumesofexcesssupply.Later,during2021-2022,atighteningofoilandgasmarketspriortoandafterRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,causedbyprolongedunderinvestment,supplychaindisruptions,andsanctions,promptedmoreregularreleaseofoilvolumesfromstrategicreserves.Thesereleasesnotonly

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workedtoovercomeoilmarketdisruptionsbutalsotobuttressthinninggovernmentbudgetsandhelpfinanceeconomicrecoveryandresiliencyfundinginthewakeofsuccessivesystemicshocks.

COVID-19PandemicSolidarityandOilInventoryCapsandDataGaps

TheCOVID-19pandemiclockdownscausedanunprecedenteddropinglobaloildemand.Consequently,oilinventoriesroserapidlytoreachcapacity.ThisledtheWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudefuturestotradeatnegativepricelevelsinApril2020.Oiltraders’determinationtopayforhavingbarrelstakenoffthemarket,combinedwithG20countries’resolvetotakejointmeasurestolimitsuppliesinconcertwith“OPECplus”producersundertheDeclarationofCooperation,markedahighpointininternationalenergymarketsolidarity.ThiswasenabledbytheSaudiPresidencyoftheG20andtheUSTrumpAdministration.ThebreakthroughalsocapitalizedonthegoodwillbuildupbytheIEFproducer-consumerdialogueoverthepreviousdecadesandhighlightedtheneedformorecompleteandgranulardataonglobaloilinventories,includinglevels,changes,andcapacitymetrics,torestoreandbettermaintainenergymarketstability.

3.CurrentSituationofReportingonOilInventories

ThissectionprovidesanoverallassessmentofthestatusofoilinventorydatareportingbyPartnerOrganizationstoJODI.ItiscomplementedbyasectionthatgivesanoverviewofJODIPartnerOrganizationspublicationsonoilinventories.

3.1.JODICurrentStatus:Partners’OilInventoriesDataReporting

3.1.1.IEF

ThesixPartnerOrganizations(APEC,EUROSTAT,IEA,OPEC,OLADEandUNSD)submitmonthlyoildatafromtheirmembercountriestotheJODI,includingclosingstocksandstockchanges.TheJODIOilManualhighlightsthat42keydatapointswereoriginallyrequestedfromthepartnersforreporting.Theseincludesevenproductcategories:crudeoil,LPG,gasoline,kerosene,gas/dieseloil,fueloilandtotaloilproductsaswellassixflows:production,imports,exports,stockchanges,closingstocksanddemand.ThescreeningofJODIOilWorldDatabaseshowsthattheflowsofoil,closingstocksandstockchangevaluesarereportedlessregularlyintheJODIWorldMonthlyDatabase.ThisresultsindatagapsandreducedtransparencyinenergymarketdataprovidedbyJODIpartnersontheJODIplatform.Graphs1and2showthereportingtrendsince2002andhighlighttheevolutionofthenumberofcountriesreportingtotheJODIonoilinventories(closingstocksandstockchange).

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Graph1.EvolutionofJODIReportingonClosingStocksData2002-2024*

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*IncludingdatauptoSeptember2024

Graph2.EvolutionofJODIReportingonStockChangeData2002-2024*

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*IncludingdatauptoSeptember2024

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TherepresentationsshowthatthetrendandpatternofreportingtoJODIonbothoilclosingstocksandstockchangereflectsadecreaseinparticipationbymembercountries.ThenumberofcountriesreportingonstockchangeisslightlyabovetheonereflectingClosingStocksdata.Intermsofvariation,theparticipationrateforclosingstocksdatahasdeclinedfrom57%in2014to38%in2024,whileforstockchangedata,ithasdecreasedfrom60%in2014to37%in2024.

ThefollowingsectionzoomsinonthestatusofoilinventoriesdataavailableanddisseminatedthroughtheJODIOilWorlddatabasewithafocusonthemostrecentrep