飛輪電池生產計劃的制定市場需求預測-----------------------4實際產品的生產工藝路線分析--------10生產方式的經濟分析和比較----------11制定綜合生產計劃------------------13生產能力的粗平衡------------------14制定主生產計劃--------------------14制定MRP,CRP----------------------14生產能力的精平衡------------------39零件工序卡編制--------------------39產品裝配工序卡編制----------------411.市場需求預測（Marketforecast）實驗數據month1month2month3month4month5month6month7month8month9month10month11month12year91824211020272311222926quarter？？？？根據給出的數據，選擇一種模型來預測下一年的市場需求量，屬于長期預。從給出的數據分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市場需求量比較接近，而同一年份的不同月份之間存在較大的差異，市場需求量與時間季節因素有關。方案一：SeasonalizedTimeSeiriesRegression的模型來進行市場預測。預測結果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)***SEASONALIZEDTIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-------------------------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-------------------------------------------------------------------FORECASTSales--------------------------ABSOLUTEYEARMONTH ACTUALREGRESSIONSEASONALIZEDERROR119.00017.5338.7660.2341218.00017.98217.9820.0181324.00018.43024.5730.5731421.00018.87922.0251.0251510.00019.3279.6640.3361620.00019.77619.7760.2241727.00020.22426.9660.0341823.00020.67324.1181.1181911.00021.12110.5610.43911022.00021.57021.5700.43011129.00022.01829.3580.35811226.00022.46726.2120.212-------------------------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)YEARMONTHFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND2111.45810.91012.0062223.36422.26824.4602331.75030.28933.2122428.30527.02629.584REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=17.0844b=0.4486FORECAST=Y*SEASONALINDEX(i)R=0.942R-SQUARE=0.8872MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=0.333MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.283MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=-0.131STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=0.605SEASONALINDEX(1)=0.500SEASONALINDEX(2)=1.000SEASONALINDEX(3)=1.333SEASONALINDEX(4)=1.167由決定系數R=0.942和相關系數R2=0.8872，預測結果準確性很高。預測的誤差在合理的范圍內，預測結果如下：month1month2month3month4year212243228方案二：TIMESERIESREGRESSION模型進行預測預測結果如下：SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)***TIMESERIESREGRESSIONFORECASTING***-----------------------------------------------------PROBLEMNAME:Untitled-----------------------------------------------------SalesSalesABSOLUTEPERIODACTUALFORECASTERROR19.00014.8465.846218.00015.7832.217324.00016.7207.280421.00017.6573.343510.00018.5948.594620.00019.5310.469727.00020.4696.531823.00021.4061.594911.00022.34311.3431022.00023.2801.2801129.00024.2174.7831226.00025.1540.846-----------------------------------------------------SalesCONFIDENCEINTERVAL(90%)PERIODFORECASTLOWERBOUNDUPPERBOUND1326.09114.97437.2081427.02815.91138.1451527.96516.84839.0821628.90217.78540.019REGRESSIONEQUATION:Y=a+bXWHERE:Y=SalesX=TIMEPERIODa=13.9091b=0.9371R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354誤差分析：R=0.500R-SQUARE=0.2501MEANABSOLUTEDEVIATION(MAD)FORTHELAST3PERIODS=2.303MEANSQUAREDERROR(MSE)FORALLPASTPERIODS=31.369MEANERROR(bias)FORALLPASTPERIODS=0.0STANDARDERROR(sigmasubyx)IS=6.1354從預測結果可以看出這種預測方法與過去的數據相差很大，因此，兩種方法相比較，第一種預測誤差精度更高誤差更小，所以我采取第一種預測方法。實際產品的生產工藝路線分析(ProductProcessAnalysis)零件代號零件名稱零件材料零件工藝過程生產提前期12345MLF-03外殼Q235-A鍛造車削鉆孔、擴孔1MLF-05外轉子電機套筒Q235-A鍛造焊接車削鉆孔、擴孔2MLF-11底板Q235-A鍛造車削鉆孔、擴孔1MLF-12電器定位板鋁合金鑄造車削銑削鉆孔、擴孔2MLF-07-03電磁鐵外側夾緊發蘭鋁合金鑄造車削精車鉆孔、擴孔線切割2MLF-07-04電磁鐵鐵芯DW314-50鍛造1MLF-07-05電磁鐵內側夾緊發蘭鋁合金鑄造車削精銑鉆孔、擴孔精車2MLF-07-06電磁鐵夾緊裝置鋁合金鑄造銑削鉆孔、擴孔1MLF-09-01盤片45鑄造熱處理車削精車鉆孔、擴孔2MLF-09-02磁環電工純鐵模鍛車削銑削1MLF-09-03壓環45鑄造車削銑削鉆孔、擴孔23.生產方式的經濟分析與比較(AlternativePlansComparison)Machinecapacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemblecapacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生產28臺。首先,計算計劃一年雇用、解雇的工人數量和在這一年的平均庫存。1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Matchingdemand11212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112InventoryaddingorsubtractionBeginninginventoryEndinginventoryAverageinventorypermonthAverageinventoryperyear1210221616.8750222222(8)221418(5)14911.500000000000000000然后,計算兩種方案的成本：1234567AggregateplanTotalannualnumberofworkershiredTotalannualnumberofworkerslaidoffAverageannualinventoryAnnualhiringandlayoffcostAnnualinventorycarryingcostTotalannualsubtractioncostTotalannualincrementaloperatingcostLevelcapacity01816.87510805332.506412.5Matchingdemand4854037200(4+1)*180012720備注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matchingdemand生產計劃中第三月和第四月的需求量超過了本廠的最大生產能力，如若要滿足要求需要采用外協或者加班的方式解決。如果采用外協第三月份有32-28=4臺需要外協，第四月份有29-28=1臺需要外協。總的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000＄再考慮到工人工資，總的費用如下：Costoflevelcapacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Costofmatchingdemand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的費用Costofmatchingdemand-Costoflevelcapacity=123120-121612.5=1507.5。Levelcapacity比Matchingdemand的花費更少。如果采用加班加班：每臺成本是600*2.5=1500外協：每臺是1800因為對于matchingdemand中第三月和第四月共缺5臺，所以兩者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通過外協和加班兩者的比較可以看出，兩者的費用差不多，但考慮到Levelcapacity的生產方式比Matchingdemand生產方式更加穩定；Levelcapacity生產方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matchingdemand的變動更小，有利于和工會之間關系的維持；在Levelcapacity生產方式中有8臺的安全庫存可以保證在市場變動時滿足市場需求。綜合以上因素，我選擇Levelcapacity生產方式。4.制定綜合生產計劃(AggregatePlanning)1234567AggregateplanMonthAggregatedemandPannedoutputsWorkersrequiredWorkershiredWorkerslaidoffLevelcapacitywithinventory11224720182242472003322472004292472005.生產能力粗平衡(Rough-CutCapacityPlanning)生產能力粗平衡Monthfinalassemblyhours1234Production24242424Finalassemblyhours4200420042004200Load(hours)4200420042004200Capacity(hours)4900490049004900由上表可知生產能力滿足要求，不需要加班或者外協。6制定主生產計劃(MasterProductionSchedule)主生產計劃Month1Month2Month3Month4周數1234123412341234總需求量12243229期初庫存10222214需求數量6666期末庫存22221497.1MRP7制定MRP,CRP(MaterialRequirementPlanning,CapacityRequirementPlanning)012數量MLF-001MLF-031MLF-051MLF-071MLF-07-033MLF-07-043MLF-07-053MLF-07-066MLF-091MLF-09-011MLF-09-021MLF-09-031MLF-111MLF-121各個零件選擇用LotForLot的生產方式，用軟件POM計算可得：***MATERIALSREQUIREMENTSPLANNING(MRP)***==============================================================================PROBLEMNAME:Untitled==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize00001080LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available20000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0311000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases106666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666660****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize0512000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070010000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070322000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases18181818181800****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070421000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases3018181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases181818181818180****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070522000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1218181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1218181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1218181818181818PlannedOrderReleases4818181818181818****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements1818181818181818ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements1818181818181818PlannedOrderReceipts1818181818181818PlannedOrderReleases18181818181800****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize070621000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements2436363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements2436363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts2436363636363636PlannedOrderReleases6036363636363636****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements3636363636363636ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements3636363636363636PlannedOrderReceipts3636363636363636PlannedOrderReleases363636363636360****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090010000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases46666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666666------------------------------------------------------------------------------==============================================================================ItemLevelLeadOnSafetyAlreadyLotCodeCodeTimeHandStockAllocatedSize090122000LFL------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:12345678------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements46666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements46666666PlannedOrderReceipts46666666PlannedOrderReleases166666666****RUSHORDER****------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WeekNumber:910111213141516------------------------------------------------------------------------------GrossRequirements66666666ScheduledReceipts00000000Available00000000NetRequirements66666666PlannedOrderReceipts66666666PlannedOrderReleases66666600****RUSHORDER****----------------------------------