階段總結與重點精講即將開始L2–1StudySession1-2Session3&10%-15%5%-10%5%-10%Session4Session5-6Session7-8Session9-11Session12-13Session14Session15Session16-17Financial10%-15%5%-10%10%-15%10%-15%5%-10%5%-10%5%-15%100%2階段總結L2-3?StudySession9?and?Concepts?StudySession10andAnalysisand?andAnalysis?Dividend4(Cont.)?StudySession11CashFlowandOtherModels)?Cash?PriceandMultiples??5and1,of?IntrinsicValue?LiquidationValue?FairMarketValue?InvestmentValue62,of?Understandingthebusiness(Porter5,Strategies3,?Forecastingcompanyperformance?SelectingtheappropriatevaluationmodelRelative,sumofparts,Conglomeratediscount)?Convertingforecaststoavaluation?Applyingvaluationconclusions7Concepts1,?HPR?Requiredreturn?Discountrate?IRR82,riskpremium?Definitionequityriskpremium(incremental,consistent)?Historicalestimates(index,riskfree,time,meanupwardlybiased,stationary)9?Forward-lookingestimatesupdate,assumption)?GordongrowthmodelDP0ERP=1+g?RfEquityindexprice=PVFastGrowthStage(r)+PVTransition(r)+PVMatureStage(r)?MacroeconomicmodelSupplyside,IbbotsonandChenERP=EDY+[(1+EINFL)(1+EGREPS)(1+EGPE)-1]-E(Rf)EINFL:T-Bond-Tips,EGPE:baseline=0?Surveyestimateswidedisparity103,foron?Thepricingmodel?apublicregressing,Drift=(2/3)(Unadjusted+(1/3)(1)?thinlyornonpubliccompaniestheBunlevered=[1/(1+(D/Epeer))]BEBnonpublic=[1+(D/E)]Bunlevered11?Themodels(APT)?Themodel(FFM)r=R+RMRF+sizeSMB+valueHMLifiii?Themodel(PSM)r=R+RMRF+sizeSMB+valueHML+liqLIQifiiii?MacroeconomicmodelConfidence,Timerisk,Businesscycle,timing12?Build-upmethod(unobtainable,closelyheldcompanies)?Build-upmethodbusinessr=R+Equityriskpremium+Sizepremiumifi+Specific-companypremiumirisklesseasily?Bondyieldplusriskri=YTMonthelongdebt+riskwithpubliclydebt13?in??CountrymodelEquityriskpremiumanemerging=Equityriskpremiumadeveloped+Countrypremium14?andofApproaches?Simple,?SinglemodelCAPM?lossof?Higher?andmodels?simpleBuild-upmodels?appliedcloselyheld?usefirms154,averagecostof?ofMVDMVEMVDMVE+WACC=?Taxrate)r+re+dMVDMVE?Discountselectionincashalignthediscountwiththecash16andAnalysis1,Financial?Incomemodeling?GDPplusx%,Timeseries;onCapacity-basedHybrid?COGS:SG&A:lessclosely,17?debtCash?Otherdividendoutstanding,dilution18?Balancesheetandcashmodeling?Useofefficiency:forecastedannualCOGSinventoryturnoverratioInventoryvalue=account:Projectedaccountreceivable=forecastedsalesdayssalesoutstanding365on(ROIC)netoperatingprofitlessadjustedtaxes(NOPLAT)ROIC=investedcapital?Useof19?Scenarioandsensitivityanalysis?Sensitivityanalysis:oneassumption?Scenarioanalysis:multipleassumptions202,AffectingPrices?Porter’smodel,PriceLevelTechnology?andpasson,Price-volume?4,=holdingperiod,BuildingaModel(Sales-basedModel)21Dividend1,CFt+r)V=0tt=1?DCFModelsComparison?Dividendmodelad:lessearningsdis:lessdividends,nottheApp:22?cashmodelFCFF:firmFCFE:equityad:divpopulardis:longperiodsApp:Nodividend,?incomemodelad:Wide,opportunitydis:accrual,qualityofaccountingApp:Nodividend,Lessdependence232,Dividend?DDMprincipals?SingleperiodDr)Pr)D+P11V=+=11++r)+0111?MultipleperiodD11rDn1rPn1rV=+...++0(+)1(+)n(+)n24?model?BasicsD+g)D1(r?g)V=0=0(r?g)?implied?of?ofopportunities?justifiedPE253,Multi-Stage?BasicsofDDM?FCF<0;ROE>r;1-b,lowEPS,slow;FCF>0;r;1-b,increaseEPSwide;FCF>0;ROE=r;?multipleGGM26?DDMModels?suddenlyD+g)tD+g)+g)nnV=+0s0sL0+r)t)()+rr?gnt1LD+g)+g)nV=0sLnr?gLDividend?Hmodel:Growth(g)15%D1g)+D0H(gSg)?=0L+L0rg?rg?LL3%D00r=+g)+?g)]+gLStage1Stage2LsL4years27?DDMModelsAddanadditionalthemodeltransition,and?SpreadsheetModeling284,?Thesustainable(SGR,g)g=×netincomesalesassetsROE=equitysalesassetsnetprofitassetequityROE=marginturnovermultiplier?modelg=netP*AL29Cash1,?FCFFFCFF=NI+NCC+[Int(1–t)]––FCFF=CFO+–t)]–FCFF=[EBIT(1–t)]+NCC––FCFF=EBITDA(1–t)+(NCC×t)––30?FCFEFCFE=NI+NCC––+FCFE=CFO–+FCFE=EBIT(1–t)––t)+NCC––+FCFE=EBITDA(1–t)––t)+NCC(t)––+FCFE=FCFF–[Int(1–t)]+FCFE1=NI-(1-DR)(FCInv-Dep)-(1-DR)(WCInv)=NI-(1-DR)(FCInv+-Dep)312,?NoncashchargesNoncashadjustmentNIaddedbackaddedbackaddedbackdepreciationandimpairmentof(incomelossesaddedbackofbonddiscountsoflong-termpremiumsaddedback32?Adjustments?portionofLdebt?InclusionsAccountsAccountsAccrued?changesbetweenchangesinassetsbetweenchangesinliabilities33?Adjustments?FCInv=CAPEX-Proceeds?Nodisposal10?Disposed10+Dep10desposal1+Dep034?Netadjustments?onlyFCFE,theydonotFCFF?=debtissuances–debtrepurchases?=debt10–debt?ofDebt,LongDebt35?Cashflowdirection?ComputeNI,EBITDA?uses-of-free-cash-flowbasisUsesofFCFE=increasesincashbalances+ofequityUsesofFCFF=increasesincashbalances+ofdebt+ofequity363,?approachesFCF?FCF?componentsof?Sales-based?DD+EWCInvSalesDR=FCFE1=NI-(1-DR)(FCInv-Dep)-(1-DR)(WCInv)=NI-(1-DR)(FCInv+-Dep)374,FCF?offinancingdecisionsonFCFCFIFCFFFCFECFI,CFFFCFFNoneNoneNoneFCFENoneNoneNoneDividendsissue&partiallyChangeinNonerepurchase/issueuseofnot38?FCFEandDDM?is?sameeconomic?FCFEa?DDMaminority?poor(NI,EBITDA)?Single-StageFCFModelFirm=FCFFEquity=FCFEonequityFCFFFCFE1r-gFCFEV=0Equity=1WACC-g39?Model?Single?Multiwilldissapear?cycle?ofthecash,securities,land40Price/EnterpriseMultiples1,?Pricemultiples/multiples?Methodoffundamentals?ofoneprice?peer?pricemultiple412,multiples?PE?andyield(EPS,ROE),MolodovskyUnderlyingearningnon-recurringrisk,andcashLeadingE=5+(6×dividend+(10×–(0.5×Sample,time,predictable,change,Multicollinearity42?benchmarksPriceoftheindividualpeerorindustryequitythesecurity?P/E=gAssumesalinearofinrisk43?PB?noassets,off-B/Sinundervalued(adjust:off-B/S,LIFO)misleadinginaccountingandtechnologicalchangeandissuances44?liquidityasset,financial?P/B00P?gr?g0=0ROE-r:Larger==higherresidualincomemodel=rwillaof1ROE,g,randPB45?PS?firms,cyclical,and?P(E/S)?b)+g)000=S0r?gincreasePSdecrease46?PCF?difficult?1+gr?gV/=00?Dividend?notbetweendivandearningr?g?D/P=001+g473,Multiples?Multiples?Rationales:financialdepEBITDAusually?EBITDAignoreschangesin(FCFF)?(EV)orFirm=MVofcommon+MVofdebt+MV–cashand484,?border?Momentum??earnings:UE=EPS–E(EPS)ttt?)?earnings=ttt?t(EPS)t49?tendencymeasure?Arithmeticmean:?Harmonicmean:smallthanarithmeticnX=Hn1/Xii1?harmonicmean:corresponds1X=n/Xiii1?Median501,Income?income(RI)?RI=Inc–(equitycapital×ofequity)?RI=EBIT(1–t)–×?Economicadded?=N–×Capital)?R&DLIFO?added=offirm–512,Income?Basicprincipal?RIRItt=EPSt–(r×t–1)RI=t–r)xt–1cleansurplusB=B+NI-Div10?Equity?r)BVPSt-1tV=+00+r)tt152?betweenRIandDCFlessterminalofintrinsic?betweenandrIf>RI>0,justifiedPB>1If=RI=0,justifiedPB=153?Single-stageIncome??rV=B+B000r?g?impliedB(ROE?r)g=r?[]0V?B00?justified0?g=B0r?g54?Multi-Stage?Approach1:book?Approach2:RIT1+r-PV(continuingRIinyearT-1)=ω=1+g(g<0)ω=0，PV=0;ω=1,PV=RI/rTsuggestinghigherω:1-b,RIsuggestingω:ROE,nonrecurring,accrual55?andweaknessesofresidualincomemodel?doesnotintrinsicAccountingaccessibleApplicablewithoutdividendsorcashApplicablewhencashorunpredictableFocusoneconomic?Accountingcanbecleansurplusholds56?AccountingissuesViolationsofcleansurplusgain/lossesBalancesheetliabilitygain/(loss)onsecuritiesgain/(loss)oncashhedges571,Basicsofcompanyvaluation?Approachesincome,basedapproach??earningnonrecurring,Discretionary?and582,Income?DiscountCAPMnot,ExpandedCAPM,Buildup?cashmethodpricemultiple,?cashmethodsingle59?earningsmethodRI=NI–rwc*–rfa*00+g)oftheassets:=0r?gofthewholefirm:Vfirm=Vintangible+603,Market?Guidelinepublicmethod?Multiplesactivityintheofpubliccompanies?inriskand?industrycondition,reasonableness?Guidelinetransactionsmethod?Acquisitionofofpublicorcompanies?ofa?61?Priortransactionmethodtransactionsofthesubjectastheguideline4,Asset-Based?Notusedgoingconcerns?Floorprice?Financial,625,Premiums?Discountlackof1DLOC=1?1+controlpremiumApplication:?Discountlackof?Methodsofpublic,IPOputoption?discountDiscount=1－[(1－－63重點精講L2-641:ThesensitivitiesofN–Frenchandtheriskpremiumwiththoseinthebelow:Sensitivity1.30Risk(%)5.53.72.3?0.70?0.25theAssumethebillis3.72.Describethebasedonsensitivities.651:1,r=3.7%+1.3*5.5%+(-0.7*3.7)+（-0.25*2.3）=7.685%2，Nbeahighriskasbyitsand1.0.662:ABC,Inc.earningsbepermanently$4.00perpriceis$36and10%.Assumingthepriced,theofopportunitiesis?A)+$3.50.?B)+$4.00.?C)-$4.00.67Answer:CShareprice=(no-growthearnings/return)+36=(4/0.10)+=-$4.00683:693:704:RamonLongandSriBeujeau,aboutaspectsoftheLongthat:dividenddiscounting,theuniquebecauseitmeaningfulfirmswithearnings-IsLongA)becausetheearnings-growthiscancelledouttheoftheB)becausethemeaninglessearnings-growthcompanies.C)becausetheofthedoesnotusetheofearnings714:Answer:BTheis:=/earningsAssuch,firmswithearningswillawhichmeaningless.725:?AdvancedInstrumentsreportedthetheendoffiscalyear:?=$50.3million.?