第八章人力資源規(guī)劃CHP8HumanResourcePlanning案例北京桑科制造公司的營銷經(jīng)理趙旺在每周經(jīng)理例會上說：“我有個好消息，我們可以與麥多德公司簽訂一大筆合同。我們所要做的就是在一年而不是兩年內完成該方案。我告訴過他們我們能夠做到。〞然而人力資源副經(jīng)理王林的話卻讓每個人都必須面對現(xiàn)實，她說：在我看來，我們現(xiàn)有的工人并不具備按麥多德公司的標準生產(chǎn)出優(yōu)質產(chǎn)品所需要的專業(yè)知識。在原來兩年的方案進度表中，我們曾方案對現(xiàn)有工人逐步進行培訓，但是按現(xiàn)在這個新的時間表我們將不得不到勞動力市場上招募那些具有該方面工作經(jīng)驗的工人?；蛟S我們有必要進一步分析一下這個方案，看看是否確實需要這么做。如果我們要在一年內而不是兩年中完成這一方案，人力資源本錢將大幅度上升。不錯，趙經(jīng)理，我們能夠做到這一點，但是由于有些約束條件，這個方案的效益會好嗎？假設：

你分別是營銷經(jīng)理、人力資源經(jīng)理、公司總經(jīng)理，面對這種情況，你的態(tài)度是什么？

策之而知得失之計，作之而知動靜之理，形之而知生死之地，角之而知有余缺乏之處?！?孫子兵法·虛實?

人力資源規(guī)劃〔HumanResourcePlanning〕的含義在企業(yè)開展和經(jīng)營規(guī)劃的指導下進行人員的供需平衡，以滿足企業(yè)在不同開展時期對人員的需求，為企業(yè)的開展提供符合質量和數(shù)量要求的人力資源保證。Employmentorpersonnelplanningistheprocessofdecidingwhatpositionsthefirmwillhavetofill,andhowtofillthem.概念理解(1)HRP要在企業(yè)開展戰(zhàn)略和經(jīng)營規(guī)劃的根底上來進行。StrategicAnalysisWhathumanresourcesareneededandwhatareavailable?StrategicFormulationWhatisrequiredandnecessaryinsupportofhumanresources?StrategicImplementationHowwillthehumanresourcesbeallocated?Clarifyperformanceexpectationsandfuturemanagementmethods:values,guidingprinciplesbusinessmissionobjectivesandprioritiesresourceallocationsIdentifypeople-relatedbusinessissuesDefineHRstrategies,objectives,andactionplansImplementHRprocesses,policiesandpracticesImplementprocessestoachievedesiredresults:businessgoalscompanystrengths/weaknessesexternalopportunities/threatssourceofcompetitiveadvantageEstablishthecontext:businessgoalscompanystrengths/weaknessesexternalopportunities/threatssourceofcompetitiveadvantageStrategicAnalysisStrategyFormulationStrategyImplementationLinkingtheProcessesofHRPandStrategicPlanningEnsuringtheFitbetweenHRandStrategyExternalFit(orExternalAlignment)FocusesontheconnectionbetweenthebusinessobjectivesandthemajorinitiativesinHR.InternalFit(orInternalAlignment)AligningHRpracticeswithoneanothertoestablishaconfigurationthatismutuallyreinforcing.Step1:PlanningAwarenessStep4:OrganizationalResourceAnalysisStep5:Opportunity&ThreatIdentificationStep7:StrategyDesignStep6:GapAnalysisStep9:ProgressMeasurement&ControlStep8:StrategyImplementationStep2:GoalFormulationStep3:EnvironmentalAnalysisReminder:OrganizationStrategyModel概念理解(2)HRP包括對企業(yè)特定時期內的人員供給和需求進行預測、根據(jù)預測的結果采取相應的措施進行供需平衡。HRP對企業(yè)人力資源供給和需求的預測要從數(shù)量和質量這兩個方面來進行。ResultsofInadequateHRPlanningVacantpositionscreatecostlyinefficienciesOvertimehoursatpremiumcostSimultaneouslayoffsandhiringMasslayoffsrequiring:SeverancepayExtendednoticeperiodsineffectivetraining,development,careerplanningTurnoverofhighperformersProblemswithemploymentequitygoalsInabilitytomeetoperationalandstrategicplansPurposeofHRPHRP’spurposeistheeffectivedeploymentofhumanresourcesthrough:Anticipatingorganizationallaborsupplyanddemand.ProvidingexpandedemploymentopportunitiesGuidingthedevelopmentandtrainingtheworkforce.人力資源規(guī)劃的內容Comprehensivenessofplanning“Plan-basedHRP〞ispartoforganization’sbusinessplanningHRPforspecialprojects--plannedorunplannedneedsAssignmentplanSupplementplanRetirementorTerminationplanWages&MotivationplanTraining&DevelopmentplanPromotionplanHRPHRP的意義和作用有助于企業(yè)開展戰(zhàn)略的制定有助于企業(yè)保持人員狀況的穩(wěn)定有助于企業(yè)降低人工本錢的開支對HRM的其他職能具有指導意義RelationshipsCompensationManagementAssessingPerformanceForecastthedemandofhrForecastthesupplyofhrD＞SrecruitmentdeploymentTraining&developmentD=SD＜SDismiss&layoffdeployment人力資源規(guī)劃的程序企業(yè)內部環(huán)境：經(jīng)營戰(zhàn)略、發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略、管理風格、管理體系企業(yè)的外部環(huán)境：政治、經(jīng)濟、文化、法律、相關政策企業(yè)的現(xiàn)有人力資源“人力資源的數(shù)量、質量、結構、潛力需求分析供給分析內部供給外部供給人員分析勞動力市場狀況,擇業(yè)偏好,企業(yè)吸引力,外部競爭內部供給預測外部供給預測職位分析需求預測需求的數(shù)量、質量比較供給的數(shù)量、質量制定并實施供需平衡的計劃評估人力資源規(guī)劃人力資源規(guī)劃的程序

implementthebalanceableplanAssessHRPdemandanalysissupplyanalysisInternalsupplyExternalsupplyEmployeeanalysislabourmarketstatus,attraction,externalcompetitionForecastinginternalsupplyForecastingexternalsupplyPositionanalysisForecastingdemandQuantityandqualityofdemandcompareQuantityandqualityofsupplyInternalenvironment：managementstratagem、developmentstratagemmanagementstyle,managementsystemExternalenvironment：politics,economicculture,law,relevantpolicyExistingHR:quantity、quality,structurepotentialHRPandEnvironmentalScanningEnvironmentalScanningThesystematicmonitoringofthemajorexternalforcesinfluencingtheorganization.Economicfactors:generalandregionalconditionsCompetitivetrends:newprocesses,services,andinnovationsTechnologicalchanges:roboticsandofficeautomationPoliticalandlegislativeissues:lawsandadministrativerulingsSocialconcerns:childcareandeducationalprioritiesDemographictrends:age,composition,andliteracyScanningtheInternalEnvironmentCulturalAuditsAuditsofthecultureandqualityofworklifeinanorganization.Howdoemployeesspendtheirtime?Howdotheyinteractwitheachother?Areemployeesempowered?Whatisthepredominantleadershipstyleofmanagers?Howdoemployeesadvancewithintheorganization?BenchmarkingTheprocessofcomparingtheorganization’sprocessesandpracticeswiththoseofothercompanies.FORECASTINGDEMANDConsiderationsProduct/servicedemandTechnologyFinancialresourcesAbsenteeism/turnoverOrganizationalgrowthManagementphilosophyTechniquesTrendanalysisManagerialestimatesDelphitechniqueTechniquesStaffingtablesMarkovanalysisSkillsinventoriesManagementinventoriesReplacementchartsSuccessionPlanningExternalConsiderationsDemographicchangesEducationoftheworkforceLaborMobilityGovernmentpoliciesUnemploymentrateFORECASTINGSUPPLYBALANCING

SUPPLYANDDEMAND(Shortage)RecruitmentFull-timePart-timeRecalls(Surplus)ReductionsLayoffsTerminationsDemotionsRetirements人力資源需求的預測

ForecastingPersonnelNeeds人力資源需求的分析StrategyandplansProductandservicedemandProjectedturnoverQualityandskillsofyouremployeesStrategicdecisionstoupgradethequalityofproductsorservicesorenterintonewmarketsTechnologicalandotherchangesresultinginincreasedproductivity.ThefinancialresourceavailabletoyourdepartmentWorkloadofapositionEfficiencychanging人力資源需求預測的方法主觀判斷法ManagerialEstimate

Managementforecastsaretheopinions(judgments)ofsupervisors,departmentmanagers,experts,orothersknowledgeableabouttheorganization’sfutureemploymentneeds.

德爾菲法DelphitechniqueTheDelphitechniqueisamethodforobtainingforecastsfromapanelofindependentexpertsovertwoormorerounds.差距提交反饋修改提交反饋修改提交反饋批準第一輪第二輪第三輪提交：經(jīng)營計劃、編制、人力成本反饋：優(yōu)／缺點、建議、意見修改：經(jīng)營計劃、財務預算通過反復的反饋與修改縮短經(jīng)營計劃與公司總體財務預算的差距。德爾菲法的特征匿名性屢次有控制的反響綜合性德爾菲法的步驟確定預測題目，選定專家小組；設計調查表，準備有關材料；征詢專家初次判斷意見；綜合整理收回的各位專家初次判斷意見，作出定量化的歸納，加以必要說明。并反響給各位專家，請他們再次思考，提出判斷意見；經(jīng)過反復征詢意見后，做出預測值。德爾菲法的優(yōu)點：

〔1〕各專家能夠在不受干擾的情況下，獨立、充分地說明自己的意見；

〔2〕預測值是根據(jù)各位專家的意見綜合而成的，能夠發(fā)揮集體的智慧；

〔3〕應用面比較廣，費用比較節(jié)省。德爾菲法的缺點：

在綜合預測值時，僅僅是根據(jù)各專家的主觀判斷，缺乏客觀標準，而且顯得強求一致。趨勢預測法Trendanalysis

Thestudyofafirm’spastemploymentneedsoveraperiodofyearstopredictfutureneeds.回歸分析Regressionanalysis比率預測法RatioanalysisAforecastingtechniquefordeterminingfuturestaffneedsbyusingratiosbetweenacausalfactorandthenumberofemployeesneeded.Assumesthattherelationshipbetweenthecausalfactorandstaffingneedsisconstant趨勢預測法例題

某公司過去8年人員的數(shù)據(jù)如下，請預測今后第二年和第四年人力資源的需求是多少年度12345678人數(shù)450455465480485490510525趨勢線可以表示為ab確實定根據(jù)最小平方法這樣就可以預測出今后第二年和第四年的人力資源需求為RatioAnalysis

比率分析#patients病人=100#nurses護士=25patient病人/nurse護士ratio比率=4/1Ifthereare315patients,howmanynursesareneeded?如果有315個病人，需要多少護士？人力資源供給的預測

ForecastingPersonnelsupplyForecastingtheSupplyofOutsideCandidatesFactorsimpactingthesupplyofoutsidecandidatesGeneraleconomicconditionsLaborMarketsExpectedunemploymentrateattractionofenterpriseAttitudetowardjobForecastingtheSupplyofinsideCandidates現(xiàn)有人力資源的分析人力資源自身的自然變化〔退休、生育〕，主要是對年齡、性別、身體狀況等等進行分析。人員流動的分析〔重要前提假定：人員的質量不發(fā)生變化〕人員由企業(yè)流出人員在企業(yè)內部流動人員的質量分析〔假定：人員沒有發(fā)生流動〕顯性原因：如工資的增加技能的培訓隱形原因加班加點工作分享、縮短工作時間人力資源供給預測的方法SkillInventoriesReplacementChartsMarkovAnalysisInternalsupplyForecastingToolsSkillInventoriesFilesofpersonneleducation,experience,interests,skills,etc.,thatallowmanagerstoquicklymatchjobopeningswithemployeebackgrounds.PersonnelreplacementchartsCompanyrecordsshowingpresentperformanceandpromotabilityofinsidecandidatesforthemostimportantpositions.Figure4.6人力資源水池模型現(xiàn)有員工30人流出15人流入9人未來的內部供給24人12342+31(23)36960279036職位層次AB將提升到上一層次外部招聘將提升到本層次退休＋辭職〔提升受阻〕A現(xiàn)有人員B可提升人員調入6人現(xiàn)有30人調出和離職10人未來供給28人調入10人現(xiàn)有40人調出和離職5人未來供給47人調入6人現(xiàn)有50人調出和離職12人未來供給40人晉升5人降職3人晉升8人降職3人降職4人內部供給總量115人馬爾科夫模型是用來預測等時間間隔點上〔一般為1年〕各類人員分布狀況的一種動態(tài)預測技術。Markovanalysisshowsthepercentage(andactualnumber)ofemployeeswhoremainineachjobfromoneyeartothenext,aswellastheproportionsofthosewhoarepromoted,transferred,orexittheorganization.

某類人員的轉移率〔p〕=本類人員原有數(shù)量轉移出本類人員數(shù)量例題1：三類人員的轉移矩陣和現(xiàn)在三類人員分布狀況，如果每年向第一類補充80人，求未來人力資源供給分布狀況。

類別總數(shù)ABCt=0,2006員轉移率p，t＝0時人員分布情況，每年向A類補充人數(shù)80人根據(jù)馬爾可夫計算公式可知，某類人員在t時刻的供給量N＝該類人員總數(shù)×留存率＋補充人數(shù).其中，補充人數(shù)=下類人員總數(shù)×晉升率＋該類招聘人數(shù)＋上類人員總數(shù)×降職率列表預測2007－2021年三類人員供給情況時間類別總數(shù)ABC補充＋存留晉升＋存留晉升＋存留t=0=1,80+140×0.6=164140×0.3+100×0.4=82100×0.3+60×0.6=66312t=2,80+164×0.6=178164×0.3+82×0.4=8282×0.3+66×0.6=64324t=3,80+178×0.6=187178×0.3+82×0.4=8682×0.3+64×0.6=63336t=4,80+187×0.6=192187×0.3+86×0.4=9186×0.3+63×0.6=64347例題2：假設某企業(yè)有四類職位，從高到低依次是A,B,C,D,各類人員的分布情況如下表，請預測一下未來人員的分布。職位ABCD人數(shù)4080100150T年ABCD離職率合計A0．90．1B0．10．70．2C0．10．750．050．1D0．20．60．2解：T＋1年期初人數(shù)ABCD離職率合計A40364B8085616C1001075510D150309030預測的供給44661059560BalancingdemandandsupplyofHR

人力資源供需的平衡Dealingwithanoversupplyofpersonnel

人員供給過剩處理Freezehiring

凍結雇傭Restrictovertime

限制超時Retrain/redeploy

重新培訓/調動Switchtopart-timeemployees

轉成兼職員工Useunpaidvacations

采用無薪休假 Useashorterworkweek

采用縮短的工作周Usepayreductions

采用減少工資Usesabbaticals

采用周期性休息Encourageearlyretirements

鼓勵提前退休Hireadditionalworkers

雇傭另外的工人Improveproductivitythroughtraining

通過培訓提高生產(chǎn)力Useovertime

采用超時Addadditionalshifts

增加另外