內容目錄一、社融增速同比增9.0%，增量超市場預期 .-4-8三、M2M11314圖表目錄圖表14-22022年同期增加情況（）532季度新增社融結構情況（）5圖表4（億元）......................-7-圖表5：新增社融結構占比8-圖表6（億，%）9-圖表7（億元）9-圖表8（）10-92季度新增貸款結構情況（）10圖表10：新增貸款結構占比............................................................................--圖表（）12-圖表12：30）12-圖表13：M2M1（%）13圖表14：M2M1（%）13圖表15（億，%）13-圖表16：新增存款情況億元）14-一、社融增速同比增9.0%，增量超市場預期6月社融新增4.229726致預期的3.22萬億。9.0%50.5個百分點。圖表1新增社融（億）比去年同期增加（億）同比增速2021/1/3151,8841,34913.032021/2/2817,2438,50613.292021/3/3133,762-18,07612.312021/4/3018,570-12,45711.662021/5/3119,522-12,34411.032021/6/3037,0172,33610.962021/7/3110,752-6,17610.662021/8/3129,893-5,96010.322021/9/3029,026-5,66710.002021/10/3116,1762,24710.032021/11/3025,9834,62810.112021/12/3123,6826,49010.292022/1/3161,7599,87510.452022/2/2812,170-5,07310.212022/3/3146,56512,80310.552022/4/309,327-9,24310.242022/5/3128,4158,89310.482022/6/3051,92614,90910.852022/7/317,785-2,96710.722022/8/3124,712-5,18110.462022/9/3035,4116,38510.582022/10/319,134-7,04210.332022/11/3019,837-6,14610.032022/12/3113,058-10,6249.582023/1/3159,871-1,8889.662023/2/2831,62319,45310.232023/3/3153,8627,29710.252023/4/3012,2442,91710.262023/5/3115,556-12,8599.792023/6/3042,200-9,7269.32資料來源：人民銀行，社融結構分析：1//76.2%，5.6%和128（5764140和358。社融規模同比減少972618256月表內政府債融資同比減少1.08去66月6，1758對較低的基數下同比仍然合計少減998億元。圖表2：新增社融較2022年同期增加情況（億元）社融人民幣貸款委托貸款信托貸款未貼現銀行承兌匯票債券融資股票融資政府債券Abs核銷2021/1/311,3493,258117-1,2743,499-50382-5,176-5061142021/2/288,5066,211256-3964,600-2,538244-8073721072021/3/31-18,076-2,879546-1,770-5,114-6,124585-3,213638-372021/4/30-12,457-3,399366-1,351-2,729-5,613499382376-42021/5/31-12,344-1,208-135-958-1,762-3,956364-4,661335-352021/6/302,3364,15310-194-2,41124141858-8-2652021/7/31-6,176-1,8301-204-1,186733-277-3,639723-4792021/8/31-5,960-1,488592-1,046-1,314990196-4,050-40-1172021/9/30-5,667-1,416295-939-1,489-179-369-2,050202-2852021/10/312,2471,0891-186203-2-811,236-333-1912021/11/304,628-2,28866-8032423,1665234,158-528-912021/12/316,490-1,108143677971,7319494,548-559-5982022/1/319,8753,806337162-1691,9214483,589-187-762022/2/28-5,073-4,32926185-4,8672,254-1081,705124-1132022/3/3112,8034,7801491,5322,583-571753,943-5795042022/4/30-9,243-9,224211713-40528352173-390282022/5/318,8933,936276676-1421,443-4253,881-4381092022/6/3014,9097,358942181,287-1,581-3678,7080-192022/7/31-2,967-4,3032401,173-428-2,3204992,178-3387522022/8/31-5,1816311,5788903,359-3,227-227-6,693-264992022/9/306,3857,9311,5301,907118-804250-2,533-83472022/10/31-7,042-3,3216431,000-1,270159-58-3,3767-222022/11/30-6,146-1,573-1231,825573-3,410-506-1,638-975432022/12/31-10,6244,0513143,789867-4,876-590-8,893-770-1,3422023/1/31-1,8887,326156618-1,770-4,290-475-1,886-1181082023/2/2819,4539,100-38174,15834-145,416-2261102023/3/317,2977,196672141,503-462-344-1,052-48-3492023/4/302,917815857341,210-809-173636-160-362023/5/31-12,859-6,011167922-729-2,541461-5,011-158292023/6/30-9,7261,825323675-1,75814112-10,82800注：最新月份暫未披露abs和核銷數據資料來源：人民銀行，22800021.97企業債分別同比少增1.52萬億、3371億和3336億元。圖表3：歷年2季度新增社融結構情況（億元）120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000-20,000--20,0002020 2021 2022 2023資料來源：人民銀行，細項來看：1+LPR+6186月銷售總體跟53.241825、表外信貸情況。6-6921758億。616月新增信托和委托貸款規模分別減少153億和57億。不過去年同期基數較低，因此同比仍分別少減675億和323億。圖表4：新增表內外票據融資及企業短貸占比新增社融（億元）新增票據融資新增未貼現銀行承兌匯票合計新增票據+未貼現銀行承兌匯票占比新增社融新增企業短貸新增企業短貸占比社融2021/1/31-1,4054,9023,4976.75,75511.12021/2/28-1,855639-1,216-7.12,49714.52021/3/31-1,525-2,296-3,821-11.33,74811.12021/4/302,711-2,1525593.0-2,147-11.62021/5/311,538-9266123.1-644-3.32021/6/302,747-2212,5266.83,0918.42021/7/311,771-2,316-545-5.1-2,577-24.02021/8/312,8131272,9409.8-1,149-3.82021/9/301,353141,3674.71,8266.32021/10/311,160-8862741.7-288-1.82021/11/301,605-3831,2224.74101.62021/12/314,087-1,4192,66811.3-1,054-4.52022/1/311,7884,7336,52110.610,10016.42022/2/283,052-4,228-1,176-9.74,11133.82022/3/313,1872873,4747.58,08917.42022/4/305,148-2,5572,59127.8-1,948-20.92022/5/317,129-1,0686,06121.32,6429.32022/6/307961,0661,8623.66,90613.32022/7/313,136-2,7443925.0-3,546-45.52022/8/311,5913,4865,07720.5-121-0.52022/9/30-827132-695-2.06,56718.52022/10/311,905-2,156-251-2.7-1,843-20.22022/11/301,5491901,7398.8-241-1.22022/12/311,146-5525944.5-416-3.22023/1/31-4,1272,963-1,164-1.915,10025.22023/2/28-989-70-1,059-3.35,78518.32023/3/31-4,6871,790-2,897-5.410,81520.12023/4/301,280-1,347-67-0.5-1,099-9.02023/5/31420-1,797-1,377-8.93502.22023/6/30-821-692-1,513-3.67,44917.7來源：人民銀行，債券和股權融資分析。1、政府債融資在去年的高基數下同比少增。6538820221.08萬億。2、本月企業債和股票融資同比變化不大。6月新增企業債融資2360147012022圖表5：新增社融結構占比新增信貸表外融資直接融資政府債abs核銷2021/1/3175.78.09.54.7-0.10.52021/2/2880.5-2.311.95.9-1.02.12021/3/3182.3-12.213.69.31.43.22021/4/3067.7-19.923.920.10.92.52021/5/3173.3-13.5-1.834.31.31.92021/6/3064.5-4.713.220.3-0.14.82021/7/3177.3-37.637.516.9-0.22.52021/8/3143.7-3.520.532.60.91.82021/9/3061.1-7.36.627.82.25.22021/10/3147.7-13.119.238.1-0.92.22021/11/3049.6-9.820.431.42.92.22021/12/3141.0-27.017.949.32.611.52022/1/3169.77.311.89.8-0.30.32022/2/2878.6-41.534.522.4-0.42.12022/3/3169.90.310.115.2-0.23.42022/4/3030.6-34.051.741.9-2.35.22022/5/3163.3-6.42.337.2-0.71.72022/6/3058.3-0.35.731.20.03.42022/7/3137.9-39.228.451.4-4.613.12022/8/3150.719.310.812.30.02.52022/9/3070.54.13.815.6-0.54.32022/10/3140.6-19.135.130.6-1.43.62022/11/3054.4-1.37.032.9-1.23.22022/12/3197.5-10.9-9.421.3-1.210.62023/1/3182.15.84.26.9-0.60.52023/2/2858.5-0.313.325.7-0.91.22023/3/3174.13.67.211.2-0.32.32023/4/3033.6-9.431.337.1-3.13.72023/5/3176.4-9.4-9.135.8-2.23.32023/6/3076.2-2.17.312.80.00.0資料來源：人民銀行，二、信貸情況：信貸投放超預期，居民端低基數弱修復63.05202224002.3811.3個百分點，增速環比下降0.1個百分點。圖表6：貸款余額同比增速（億，%）2017-012017-042017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-04

14.0013.5013.0012.5012.0011.5011.0010.5010.00新增人民幣貸款 貸款余額同比增速（右軸）資料來源：人民銀行，6522、44和2756%、26和316和15214和124，2022年同期比較居民和企業貸款均同。圖表7：新增貸款同比增加（億元）人民幣貸款居民企業中長期短期居民短期居民中長期企業短期企業中長期票據融資非銀機構2021/1/312,4006,359-3,1005,7572,4834,4271,957-1,9443,800-52/284,5435,55470010,585-2,2391,8133,742-4,0526,843-2,489-1,6062021/3/31-1,2001,614-4,5005,158-4,906981,501-5,0043,657-3,6001,6782021/4/30-2,300-1,386-2,0111,587-4,000-1,915529-2,0851,058-1,1991,1282021/5/31200-811-402987-2,430-575-236-1,8551,223-481,2842021/6/303,100-1,1305,313-174-860100-1,193-9601,0194,851-1,1162021/7/31905-3,5191,689-3,124-1,581-1,425-2,093-156-1,0312,7922,0442021/8/31-600-2,6601,166-3,349-2,544-1,348-1,312-1,196-2,0374,4897932021/9/30-2,400-1,721345-5,427377-175-1,695552-3,7323,985-6792021/10/311,364316766-1,761703154162549-1,9232,2842012021/11/30-1,600-197-2,133-1,698-1,293-969772-324-2,4708016782021/12/31-1,300-1,919667-2,9411,058-985-8342,043-2,107746-1212022/1/313,973-4,2708,100-1,4242,073-2,272-2,0244,3456003,1935752022/2/28-1,428-4,790400-10,5201,394-220-4,5721,614-5,9484,9071,6102022/3/314,103-3,9408,800-2,3562,947-1,394-2,5044,3411484,712-1842022/4/30-8,161-7,453-1,768-9,185-2,022-2,221-5,232199-3,9532,437-1532022/5/314,018-3,3447,243-4,3563,32034-3,3793,286-9775,591-1632022/6/306,900-2037,5255,1414,597782-9893,8156,130-1,9512502022/7/31-4,042-2,842-1,457-3,966-1,323-354-2,488-969-1,4781,365-2982022/8/31300-1,1751,7875371,454426-1,6011,0282,138-1,2222562022/9/308,100-1,3839,3705,3294,560-181-1,2114,7416,540-2,180-502022/10/31-2,110-4,8271,525-1,456-2,493-938-3,889-1,5552,4337455572022/11/30-600-4,7103,158232-1,643-992-3,718-6513,950-562652022/12/312,700-1,9636,0177,024368-270-1,6936388,717-2,941-5642023/1/319,227-5,85813,2008,8074,335-665-5,1935,00014,000-5,9158322023/2/285,9285,4503,7007,3705,8034,1291,3221,6746,048-4,041-1,6172023/3/317,4974,9082,2009,8654,9722,2462,6132,7267,252-7,874752023/4/30649-2411,0553,1751,450601-8428494,017-3,8687552023/5/31-5,418784-6,7422,784-2,144148637-2,2922,147-6,7091432023/6/302,4001,1576871,8991,1756324635431,436-1,617-306資料來源：人民銀行，圖表8：剔除非銀和票據的新增貸款情況（億元）剔除非銀的新增貸款剔除非銀和票據的新增貸款剔除非銀比去年同期剔除非銀和票據比去年同期2021/1/3137,79239,1972,8257,8262021/2/2813,42015,2756,1498,6382021/3/3127,57029,095-2,8787222021/4/3013,16810,457-3,428-2,2292021/5/3114,37612,838-1,084-1,0362021/6/3023,10620,3594,216-6352021/7/319,0587,287-1,139-3,9312021/8/3112,88110,068-1,393-5,8822021/9/3017,48016,127-1,721-5,7062021/10/317,6796,5191,163-1,1212021/11/3013,06411,459-2,278-3,0792021/12/3110,7476,660-1,179-1,9252022/1/3141,19039,4023,3982052022/2/2810,3827,330-3,038-7,9452022/3/3131,85728,6704,287-4252022/4/305,16012-8,008-10,4452022/5/3118,55711,4284,181-1,4102022/6/3029,75628,9606,6508,6012022/7/315,3142,178-3,744-5,1092022/8/3112,92511,334441,2662022/9/3025,63026,4578,15010,3302022/10/315,0123,107-2,667-3,4122022/11/3012,19910,650-865-8092022/12/3114,01112,8653,2646,2052023/1/3149,58553,7128,39514,3102023/2/2817,92718,9167,54511,5862023/3/3139,27943,9667,42215,2962023/4/305,0543,774-1063,7622023/5/3112,99612,576-5,5611,1482023/6/3032,46233,2832,7064,323注：非銀貸款包含非銀同業拆借，不穩定性較大，因而剔除非銀來看票據對新增信貸的貢獻來源：人民銀行，21季度沖量，2季度4、5月有所回落：223691.22萬億，企業中長期貸款多增7600億元。圖表9：歷年2季度新增貸款結構情況（億元）60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-10,000--10,0002020 2021 2022 2023來源：人民銀行，+618消費需656月提前還款率有所6月居49144630632億和4636LPR615933，7449和-82120221436，543和-1617、非銀信貸19622022306億。圖表10：新增貸款結構占比居民企業中長期短期居民短期居民中長期企業短期企業中長期票據融資非銀機構2021/1/3135.571.283.425.29.226.416.157.0-3.9-5.62021/2/2810.488.2111.1-1.4-19.830.218.480.9-13.61.32021/3/3142.058.671.632.919.222.913.748.7-5.6-1.02021/4/3035.951.478.4-12.12.533.5-14.644.918.410.42021/5/3141.553.773.07.712.029.5-4.343.510.34.22021/6/3041.068.863.831.116.524.314.639.513.0-9.02021/7/3137.540.082.3-23.00.836.7-23.845.616.316.42021/8/3147.257.177.72.812.334.9-9.442.723.1-5.62021/9/3047.559.170.030.419.428.111.041.98.2-5.32021/10/3156.237.577.61.75.251.1-3.526.514.07.12021/11/3057.844.772.715.211.945.83.226.912.6-2.92021/12/3132.958.661.5-7.91.431.5-9.330.036.24.92022/1/3121.284.571.527.92.518.725.452.84.5-3.62022/2/28-27.7101.937.79.9-23.9-3.833.841.525.114.72022/3/3124.079.054.738.012.311.925.842.810.1-1.42022/4/30-33.288.535.8-58.2-28.4-4.8-29.840.678.721.12022/5/3115.280.534.723.69.75.513.929.237.52.42022/6/3030.278.766.439.815.214.824.651.62.8-5.92022/7/3117.942.472.8-56.2-4.021.9-52.250.946.221.72022/8/3136.670.080.114.415.421.3-1.058.812.7-3.42022/9/3026.377.668.638.912.314.026.654.6-3.3-3.82022/10/31-2.975.280.5-38.3-8.35.4-30.075.131.018.52022/11/3021.773.078.32.34.317.4-2.060.912.8-0.82022/12/3112.590.399.8-3.8-0.813.3-3.086.58.2-0.12023/1/315.295.576.031.50.74.630.871.4-8.4-1.22023/2/2811.589.066.138.76.74.832.061.3-5.51.02023/3/3132.069.469.543.515.716.327.853.2-12.0-1.02023/4/30-33.595.176.7-32.7-17.5-16.1-15.392.817.829.72023/5/3127.062.969.017.214.612.42.656.63.14.42023/6/3031.674.867.440.516.115.224.452.2-2.7-6.4資料來源：人民銀行，6月、76103024.042.0（21.142.87圖表大城市商房月均成交面積（平米） 圖表12：30大中城市品房月均成交面積萬方米）40.00

80.0030.00 60.0020.00 40.0010.00 20.000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122018 2019 20202021 2022 2023

0.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011122018 2019 20202021 2022 2023來源：， 來源：，三、M2、M1同比增速下降M2和M1M1下降更快，M2-M1剪刀差擴大，6M0M1M29.8%3.1%+0.2、-1.6和-0.3M2-M18.2%，增1.3圖表13：M2及M1同增速（%） 圖表14：M2與M1增差（%）25.0020.0015.0010.005.002017-012017-052017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-05-5.00

15.0010.005.002017-012017-062017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-04-5.00-10.00M2 M1

-15.00

M2增速-M1增速來源：人民銀行， 來源：人民銀行，存款同比增105月縮小066月新增存款1.12致。企業的存款規模均大幅提升，今年6月居民和企業存款分別增長2.67萬億和2.06萬億元，在去年的高基數下分別增長1997億和減少8709億。財政存款支出持續，存款同比少增，今年6月財政存款減少1.05萬億，較上年同期多減6129億致。非銀存款6月減少3320億元，同比少減2195億元。圖表15：存款余額同比增速（億，%）2017-012017-042017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-0