RCEP協議的建立及泛亞太地區經濟復蘇趨勢分析MarketStrategy市場策略Positive Catalyst from

RCEP

JakeWang凸汀()75wangchangJiang@AndyHuang女凱鴻(86755)23976702.com.hkto

2020年11月20日JackWu吳狄(86755)2397xi1牁(852)25097202EconomicRecoveryinAsia-PacificRegionRCEP協議的建立預期將利好泛亞太地區經濟復蘇Summary摘要OnNovember15,China,TheRepublicofKorea,Australia,Australia,NewZealandandthe10ASEANcountries,atotalof15

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g 30-S31-0ctexpectedtodeepenregional「ationinEastAsia,whichmayalsohelpaccelerateinternationalcirculationoftheRMBcurrency.What'smore,itwillhelpChinatoemergeattheefrontofglobaltade「acticesand「nancethroughparticipationinestablishinghighstandardrulesofthetradeagreement.Forsectorsunderourcoverage,industriessuchasautomobiles

Sources:Bloomberg,GuotaiJunanInternationalNqENU&components,banking,cleanenergy(solar),consumer(apparel),electricequipment,infrastructure,internet,machinery,portsandshipping&logisticsareexpectedtobenefit;sectorssuchascementandconstructionmaterials,consumer(food&beverage,householdproducts,retail),andrealestatewouldlikelyremainneutral,whileotherindustriessuchasaviation,cleanenergy(naturalgas),conglomerate,consumer(hotels),education,electricity,environmentalprotection,consumer(gaming),healthcare,manufacturing,nonferrousmetals,preciousmetals,telecommunicationequipment,telecommunicationservices,andnon-bankfinanceareexpectedtobeNqENU1115日，中10國15國正式簽署區域全面經濟伙伴關系RCEP)協定。協15個成員國GDP總量、所覆蓋人口以及貿易總額均占全球總量約。RCEP協議的簽署意味著全球近三分之一的經濟體址形成一體化大市場。其規則制定標準較商，規則更加靈活、包融。由千協議覆蓋國家在經濟結構有利于中國進出口，中國；化解過剩產能；通過長期互惠的貨物、服務貿易構建起穩定的區域產業鏈、價值鏈減少區域摩擦：一體化通過對成員國在外利以整合亞太地醫，是中國推進一帶一路、的重要鋪墊，人民幣的國際化；則的體系。對千我們覆蓋的行業而言，汽車及零部件、銀行、清潔能源（太陽能）、消費｛服裝）、電力設備、基建、互聯網、機械、港口和航運物流行業預期將會受益；而水泥建材、消費（食品飲料，日用品，零售）、房地產行業則保持中性。航空、清潔能源（天然氣）、綜合、消費（酒店）、教育、電力、環保、消費（博彩）、醫藥、制造、有色金屬、貴金屬、通信設備、RCEP建立的直接影響輕微．＿巠竺W玄它弇3』點alWeexpecttoseeanoscillatinguptrendintheHongKongstockmarketintheshortrun.Theincreaseintradeactivitywithmembercountrieswilllikelystimulatetherevivalofthedomesticmanufacturingindustryandacceleratetherecoveryofthedomesticeconomyomthepandemic.However,sinceChinaandmostoftheRCEPmembertiesalreadyhavebilateralfeetade「eements,theRCEPmaynotbringasignificantincreasetothedomesticeconomyinthenearmarketriskappetitehaspartiallyrebounded.AlthoughthepandemicsituationoverseasmaystillexperienceseveralrelapsesbeforethereisaalapplicationofavalidCOVID-19vaccine,furtherblockade「esmaygraduallyhavelessimpactontheeconomyandcapitalmarketsgiventhatanumberofmonetarypolicytoolsarestillunderpinnedinEuropeandtheUnitedalongwithofmoregloballydevelopedmeasuresincopingwiththepandemic.UncertaintyrelatedtotheUSpresidentialelectionhasbutthenewroundoffiscalstimulusisupintheairHongKong'slocaleconomyhasseenaninitialendfromthebottomGDPgrowthratemayreturntopositivein1020ifHongKongcansoonreopenitscustoms.WeexpecttheHongKongstockmarketto＿巠竺W玄它弇3』點al1一P總0BS港股市場短期內預計將呈波動上升走勢。與成員國之間的貿易活躍度提升有望剌激制造業回暖，在一定程度上加RCEP多數成員困之間已經擁有正在生效的雙邊自貿協定，短期內RCEP的建立可能并不會對國內經濟帶來特別明顯的增堡。近期市場風險偏好有所回升盡管在有效的新冠疫苗得到廣泛應用前且治療疫情方面亦存有較多經驗，后續封鎖措施對千經濟及資本市場的擾動預計沖擊將逐漸減弱。美國大選相關不確定性有所減少，但新—輪的財政刺激方案依舊懸而未決。香港本地經濟呈復蘇態勢若后續能盡快實現通關20211一P總0BS＿1一P總巠竺W玄它弇＿1一P總巠竺W玄它弇3』點0BSalNqENUAnOverviewoftheRCEPAgreement 4ComparisonbetweentheRCEP,USMCAandCPTPP 6ImpactonCoveredSectors 10MarketViews 141.AnOverviewoftheRCEPAgreementTheRCEP協議簡介NqENUTheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP)agreementistheworld'slargestfreetradeagreement.OnNovember15,China,TheRepublicofKorea,Australia,NewZealandandthe10ASEANcountriesIndonesiaeMalaysia,Ph仆ippines,VietnamMyanmarCambodiaLaosandBrunei),atotalof15countries,formallysignedtheRCEPagreement.ThecombinedGDPNqENU區域全面經濟伙伴關系RCEP)協定是全球規模最大的自由貿易協定1115日，中國、、澳大利亞、新西蘭10國（、馬來西亞、老撾、文萊，共5國，正式簽署P協定勺中5個成員國P總量、所覆蓋人口以及貿易總額均占全球總量RCEP協議的簽署意味若全球近三分之一的經濟體量形成一體化大市場。TheRCEPagreementenhancesliberalizationandfacilitationoftradeandinvestment.TheRCEPeementrequiresall15memberstocommittootariffs,openi「ketsandreducetradebarriers.Forconsumers,itisbeneficialin:(1)reducingandexemptingtradetariffs,thusreducingthepriceofimportedgoods;(2)industrialcooperationtoreducethepriceofdomesticcommodities;and(3)reducingbarriersininternationaltavelproducers,itisbeneficialin:1educingproductioncosts;「oducingadvancedtechnology;and4.imp「ovingthequalityofcommodities.巠竺W玄它弇3』點alRCEPRCEP協定要求15個成員國均承諾降至零關稅、開放市場、減少貿易壁壘。對消費者而言有利千：1減免貿易關稅，降低進口蔭品價格：2產業協作，降產商；3.巠竺W玄它弇3』點al＿TheobjectivesoftheRCEPareto:(a)establishaandmutuallybeneficialeconomicpartnershipframeworktofacilitatetheexpansionofregionaltradeandinvestmentandcontributetoglobaleconomicgrowthanddevelopment,takingintoaccountthestageofdevelopmentandeconomicneedsoftheParties,especiallyofLeastDevelopedCountryParties;(b)progressivelyliberalizeandfacilitatetradeingoodsamongthePartiesthrough,interprogressiveoftariffandnon-tariffbarriersonsubstantiallyalltradeingoodsamongthe(c)progressivelyalizetadeinservicesamongthePartiestoachievesubstantialeliminationofrestrictionsand「「ymeasureswithrespecttotadeinservicesamongtheParties;and(d)createaliberal,facilitative,andcompetitiveinvestmentenvironmentintheregion,thatwillenhanceinvestmentopportunitiesandtheprotection,andliberalizationofinvestmentamongtheParties.＿1一P總0BSRCEP協定的（一）一個現代、全面、高質鼠和互惠共點的經濟伙伴關系合作框架，以促進區推動全球經濟增長與發展同時兼顧締約方特別，所處的發展階段和經濟需求；（二）通過逐步取消締約方之問實質上所有貨物貿易的關稅和非關稅壁壘，1一P總0BS取消締約方之間在服務貿易方面的限制和歧視性措施；以及（四）在區域內創造自由、便利和具有競爭力的投資環境，以增加締約方之間的投資機會，提升投資的促進、保護、便利化和自由化。NqENUTheASEANisnowChina'slargesttradingpartner.Intheistee「sof2020,tradebetweenChinaandASEANreachedUS$481.81billionup5.0YoY,andChina'sinvestmentinASEANeased76.6%YoY.In2019,NqENU東盟目前是中國最大的貿易伙伴2020年前三季度4,818.1億美元5.0中76.6%。2019年14RCEP協議成員國的總貿易逆差為937.3億美元。RCEPmembercountriestradevolumewithChinaoverthepastfouryears(US$10,000) 過去4年RCEP成員國與中國貿易金額（萬美元） 35,000,00030,000,00025,020,000,00015,000,00010,000,0005,000,000。

■2020-04 ■2019-12 ■2018-12 2017-12 ■2016-12谷 侖 $ $ $ b `e 求 e- ＄ 令 令 ｀ ．- '\,i。 心Q 侖 令侖 - '\,i。 心

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ob Qo 心｀令$谷(.,,- "$谷(.,,- "令玄它弇今玄它弇Sources,Guoraian'sAdministrationofCustoms.巠竺W3巠竺W3』al點 過去4年RCEP成員國與中國貿易差額（萬美元） 點6,000,0002,000,0

■2020-04 ■2019-12 ■2018-12 2017-12 ■2016＿(2,000,0＿(4,000,0(6,000,0(8,000,0(1

0000。00)00)00)00)谷 侖 '-, `b 0000。00)00)00)00)0BSQ 雹 忒 仍 e ＼令｀森 b--\t,"侖 0BS一§ ?心° 穸 心令瀘 ＄侖 翁 ｀＄ 令令 $ v令。 守 e Q一1P總Sources,GuotaiJunanlntematione/,Chine'SGeneralAdminis廿ationofCus1P總NqENUThespacefortariffconcessionsbetweenChinaandJapanmightbeahighlightoftheRCEPagreement.BeforetheRCEPagreementcameintobeing,JapanhadnotsignedafreetradeagreementwithChina,andthebilateraltradetariffreductionspaceislargerthanthatforotherRCEPmembers.Therefore,themaximummarginalcontributiontotheimplementationoftheRCEPisthereductionoftradeandinvestmentresistancebetweenChinaandInthetradevolumebetweenChinaandJapanwasUS$315.03billion,andthe「adedeficitwasUS$28.49billionUnderthe「monizedSystem(HSin2019thecategorywiththehighestshareofChina'sexportstoJapanasaproportionofChina'sglobalexportswereore,slagandash(63.40%,withexportvalueofmillion),productsofmeat,fish,crustaceans,mollusksandotheraquaticinvertebrates(30.82%,million)andliveplants;stemandroot;flowerarrangementandleafclusterUS$110million);thecategorywiththehighestshareofimportsfromJapantoChinaasaproportionofglobalimportstoChinaweremiscellaneousproducts(57.69%,withimportvalueofphotographicandfilmsupplies(45.80%,million)andmusicalinstrumentsandNqENU中日關稅減讓空間或是RCEP在RCEP協議落地之前，日本與中國并沒有簽署自由貿易協定，RCEP成員國更大因此，RCEP協定落地的最大邊際貢獻是中國與日本之間貿易與投資阻力減少2019年，中國與日本貿易金額為3,150.3億美元，貿易逆差為284.9億美元按照編碼協調制度HS)分類來看，2019年，中國出口日本占中國出口全球份額最高的分類為礦砂礦渣及礦灰63.40,出口額為1,107百萬美元動物及其他水生無脊椎動物的制品C3,2,848百萬美元）和活植物；莖、根；插花、簇葉(%,0百萬美元；中國從日本進口占中國從全球進口份額最高的分類為雜項制品(.%，進口額為1,1百萬美元，照相及電影用品(,1,1百萬美元）和樂器及其零件、附件32.26%,170百萬美元口巠竺W玄它弇alComparisonbetweentheRCEPUSMCA巠竺W玄它弇al＿3』點TheRCEPisconducivetoeconomictradeadvancementamongitsmembercountriesandtheprocessofregionalintegrationinEastAsia.TheRCEPisanupgraded10+1freetradeagreementoftheexistingagreementswithinASEANcountries.SincethecoveredintheagreementarehighlycomplementaryintheireconomicstructureandexportsitisseentobehighlyconducivetothedevelopmentofChina'simportsandexportsandsolvingproblemsofexcessTheagreementwillhelptoupastableegionalindustrychainandvaluechainreducefrictionanddeepenregionalintegrationinEastAsiathroughlong-termmutuallybeneficialgoodsandWhat'sitwillhelpChinatoemergeattheforefrontofglobaltradepracticesandgovernancethroughparticipationinestablishinghigh「drulesofthetradeagreementAcomparisonbetweentheRCEPtheUS-Mexico-CanadaAgreementUSMCAandtheehensiveandProgressivePartnership(CPTPP)hasbeensummarizedas＿3』點1一P總0BSRCEPCEP是對現有協議內包含的各國與東盟的“10+1''自貿協定的升級，互補性強，有利千中國進出口、化解過剩產能，通過長期互惠的貨物、服務貿易構建起穩定的區域產業鏈、價值鏈減少區域摩擦一體化并且通高標準的貿易協定利千中國融入新的世界貿易規則的體系。其與美墨加協議1一P總0BSPefndPs.ePcountriesphefCPTPPbuttheRCEPcoversapopulationandawiderrangethanboththeCPTPPandUSMCA.NNqENU覆蓋人口和GDP規模更高。RECP涵蓋的國家與CPTPP有重疊，但其覆蓋的人USMCA。RCEP覆蓋總人口達22.7億左右，巨域占全球GDP約30%。

及范圍更廣，也高千．Taxratesandtariffcoverageareslightlylower.TheRCEPstipulatesthatover90%ofthetadeingoodswithintheregionswilleventuallyachievezerotariffs,mainlybyreducingtaxestozeroimmediatelyorbyreducingtaxestozerowithin10yearsupontheentryintotheagreement.TheCPTPPagreementpromoteszerotariffson99%ofitsgoodswithin15yearsoftheagreementbeingreached.．稅率和稅則覆蓋范圍略低于CPTPPRCEP規定協議生效后區域內以上的貨物貿易將最終實現零關稅，主要是立刻降稅到零10年內降稅到零口CPTPP15年內推動99％的商品零斗稅。esfnemore.nsferulesf,ePseeregionalaccumulationintheregion,whichmeansthatthevaluecomponentofoductorigincanbeaccumulatedintheregioncomposedofthe15membercountries,andthevaluecomponentfomeithersideoftheRCEPwillbetakenintoaccount.TheUSMCAincreasedtherequirementsoftheoriginal5飛飛」菩飛'all在可來原分在成A值c黜立原品產得使P而內在慮考被會則原積累域區用使區地本在P都分p成值價的方一何任E原CR的R自來面 等了方積釁分行也亡中威i進區的成構陽員成個1話靈更則規地產原equirementsforautomobileproducts,amongothers,basedontheoriginalNorthAmericanTradeAgreement.However,almostallproductsoftheCPTPPeapplicabletothechangein「dsoftaxclassification,andonlyspecificproductsareapplicabletoregionalvaluecomponentsand「oductionsstand「s.o,eP5飛飛」菩飛'all在可來原分在成A值c黜立原品產得使P而內在慮考被會則原積累域區用使區地本在P都分p成值價的方一何任E原CR的R自來面 等了方積釁分行也亡中威i進區的成構陽員成個1話靈更則規地產原標AC變Ms類歸U和千用pC適較相產有所乎節章品織紡了。性壞破和擾干的鏈業產對育可定協易貿了少減幾PP加增C而獨。單求是要地產更準標序工產生品產禾成值活提價千品』基的定朸易貿美北順規地產原產定的特p僅c準R標AC變Ms類歸U和千用pC適較相產有所乎節章品織紡了。性壞破和擾干的鏈業產對育可定協易貿了少減幾PP加增C而獨。單求是要地產更準標序工產生品產禾成值活提價千品』基的定朸易貿美北順規地產原產定的特p僅c準R1BP總state-ownedenterprises,etc,buttheCPTPPhascorrespondingprovisions,whichisahighstandardmodelintherentworldtradeagreementwithrelativelystrictrules.TheUSMCAhassthatbindMexicoandCanadatosignfree-tradeagreementswithid-worldnon-marketeconomies,anda"Su1BP總規則更加靈活、包融。RCEP20章節，少千USMCACPTPP3430章節，其中并無勞工、環t有相應條款，為當前世界貿易協定中高標準樣板，規則相對嚴格。而USMCA三方非市場經濟國家簽署自由貿易協定章節，SunsetClause),即協議必須每六年由3個國家審核一次。相較CPTPP,RECP更具包容性使得各個經濟體以利千多方的角度從事自由貿易，更具穩定性。NqENUePsetshstandardsfruleseeAd.estandardsfNqENUgovernmentprocurementandsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises,whichgobeyondthescopeofWTOprovisions.ItistheisttimethatChinahasjoinedglobaltradeelationsunderanegativelistmechanism,whichindicatesthatChinaismorecloselyatingwithinternationalstandards,ComparedwiththeRCEP,theCPTPPandUSMCAhavehigherstandardsandsetsthetrendforfuturetradeagreements.RCEP同USMCA和CPTPP類似規則制定標準較高。RCEP在諸多條款的準則要高千WTO,包括電子商務、知識產權、競爭政策、政府采購、中小企業等內容，超過世貿組織規定的范疇。代表中國更進一步融入世界規則，是中國首次以負面消單制度加入全球貿易關系。但相較RCEP,CPTPP和USMCA標準更高，代表若未來多邊貿易協定的趨勢口ComparisonofRCEPwithUSMCAandCPTPPCountriesPopulation/economysizeRulesof0「iginTaxrateandtariffcove「age

RegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP)ASEANcountriesBruneiCambodia,Indonesia,仆ippines,Singapore,Vietnam),andJapan,South「tNewZealandandChinaCoveratotalpopulationof2.27billionandaccountsforabout30%ofglobalTheAgreementallowsfortheapplicationofacompositionalruleof「igin,takingintoaccountthevaluecomponentfromanyRCEPpartywhendeterminingwhethergoodsaresubjecttoRCEPtariffences1Morethan90%ofthe1

U.S.-Mexico-CanadaAgreement(USMCA)UnitedStates,Mexico,CanadaCovernearly500millionpeopleandaccountsfornearly28%oftheglobalGDPUpgradetheoriginalNORTHAmericaneeTradeAgreement(NAFTA)withcountry-of-originrequirements「productssuchasOnthebasisoftheoriginalNORTHAmerican「adeAgreement(NAFTA),thereareaseriesofprovisionsconcerningtherealizationofotariffonagriculturalproductsand

ComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnership(CPTPP)玄丐弇Japan,Canada,Australia,Chile,NewZealand,Brunei,Vietnam玄丐弇巠竺W3e芒巠竺W3e芒alInalmostallproductsareeoestanddfclassificationchange,andonlyspecificproductsareapplicabletoregionalvaluecomponentsandproductionprocessstandards一P總0一P總0BSThescopeof 20chapters,focusingontraditionalissues topics,excludinglabor,environment,coveredby state-ownedenterprisesandotherthe contents.agreement

autopartsamongthethreecountries,andthenon-useofexportsubsidiesorWTOspecialagricultu「alsafeguardmeasu「esfo「productsexportedtoeachother'smarkets34chapters 30chaptersTradeandinvestmentaccess

Thenegativelistismainlyadopted,andsomecountriesadoptthepositivelistcommitmentamongwhichsomecountriesintradeinserviceswillbeconvertedintoanegativelistwithin6yearsaftertheentryintoforceoftheagreement

Negativelist NegativelistSource:ChinaFreeTradeZoneServiceNetwork.AcademyofInternationalTradeCooperation,MinistryofCommerce.CanadianGovernmentwebsite,USTR.RCEP、USMCA、CPTPP對比區域全面經濟伙伴關系，美墨加 協議 UCRCEP)國家 東盟（文萊、柬埔寨、印尼、老美國、墨西哥、加拿撾、馬來西亞、緬甸、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國、越南）及日本、韓國、澳大利亞、新匹蘭共15國

全面與進步跨太平洋伙伴關系協定玄豈弇玄豈弇'－a巴l 3芒sWel~日本'－a巴l 3芒sWel~覆蓋人口和經 覆總人口達億，區域占全 覆蓋近5億人口，經濟總痲占 覆蓋人口約億，區域占全球濟總氮 球GDP約爾 比全球近28% GDP的約13.5%原產地規則

協定允許在確定貨物是否適用在原有北美自由貿易協定的基在CPTPP中，幾乎所有產品適用RCEP關稅優惠時，將來自礎上針對汽車等產品的原產地千稅則歸類改變標準，僅特定產品RCEP任何締約方的價值成分都要求升級 適用千區域價值成分和生產工序考慮在內，實行原產成分累積規 準則M60稅率和稅則覆 協定生效后區域內以上的 在原有北美貿易協定的基礎 根據各締約方的具體承諾，在逐蓋范圍 貨物貿易將最終實現零關稅，主 上，涉及三國間農產品貿易實 取消關稅的過程中，9的關稅項M60一BS0lv要是立刻降稅到零和10年內降 現零關稅、汽一BS0lvI用出口補貼或WTO特殊農業保障措施等一系列條款I題范圍入方式

20章章節以傳統議題為主內容口以負面清單為主，部分采用嚇面清單承諾模式，其中服務貿易部分國家將千協定生效后6年內轉化為負面清單

共34章章節 共30章章節NqENU，商ImpactonCoveredSectors覆蓋行業所受影響．ThefollowingtableshowstheimpactoftheRCEPonourcoveredsectors.Forsunderourcoverage,industriessuchasautomobiles&components,banking,cleanenergy(solar),consumer(apparel),tc,tuct,,machin「,sdshipping&sedosectssuchscementdcontnmaterial,consum「d&,d,retail),realestatearelikelyremainneutral,whileotherindustriessuchasaviation,cleanenergy(naturalgas),consumer(hotels),electricity,environmentalprotection,consumer(gaming),healthce,manufacturin,rousmetals,smetals,nt,servicesandnon-bankfinanceareexpectedtobeimpactedlessfromtheestablishmentoftheRCEP.．玄它弇alRCEP建立的影響如下表所示。對千我們覆蓋的行業而言，汽車及零部件銀行潔潔能瀝（太陽能）（電力設備、基建、互聯網、機械Il而水泥建材食品飲料，日用品零售、、教育、電力、）、玄它弇alSector行業Automobile&Components汽車及零部件

ImpactontheSector對行業的影響Positive正面

Comments巠竺W3巠竺W3』點＿itispositiveforChina'sautoindustry.InviewofOEMs,despitethatvehicleexportsiscurrentlyrelativelylow,futurevehicleexportscouldbeagrowthengine,especiallyforpassengerGeelyAuto(00175HK)andeatWallMotor(02333HK)areincreasingtheirexportsmix.InseaslocalizationstrategyshouldbebasedonCKD「SKDtheearlystage,inwhichtheloweringofimporttariffsshouldbenefit.Inmsofpartsandcomponents,wehavenoticedthatcountrieshaveentstancestowardstaxdutiesonimportandexportparts,butthesigningoftheRCEPshouldbenefittheentirevehicleinthereducingthecostofpartscirculationandovingefficiencyintheindustrialchain.＿1一P總0BS整體而言，對中國汽車行業為正面。整車方面，中國現在整車出口比例較低，但未來汽車出口將為—定轉折點，尤其是乘用車吉利汽車(00175HK)及長城汽車(02333HK)出口比例逐漸增加。加上，初期在海外本士化戰略也可能以CKD或SKD為主，對千進口關稅減讓是其一利好。零部件方面，各國對千進出口零部件的態度有差異，但RCEP將1一P總0BSBanking銀行業Cement&ConstructionMaterials水泥建材行業CleanEnergy-Solar消潔能源－太陽能CleanEnergy-Wind&Othe「S－Consumer-Appa「el消費－服裝

Positive正面Neutral中性Positive正面al中性Positive正面

TheRCEPwillincreasetradingamountandelatedfinancialwhichisexpectedtobenefitsettlementandclearingloansrelatedtoofthebanking「BankswithahighproportionofassetsinASEANsuchasBOC(03988HK)andBOCHK(02388HK)NNqENURCEP將會增加貿易額及相關的金融服務，預計將使銀行業的結算及清擲業務、貿易相關貸款等受益。在東南亞國家聯盟有較高資產比重的銀行，如中國銀行(03988HK)、中銀香港(02388HK)預計將會受益砓多。TheRCEPistoimproveconditionsfoross-borderinvestmentintheregions,whichmaybenefitoverseasexpansionofcementandglassmanufacturerssuchasConchCement(00914HK)andXinyiGlass(00868HK)However,itmaybe「tocontrolcementimportsinChinafromVietnamwithnon-marketmethods,makinglocalcementcompaniesineastChinamoreexposedtocompetitionfromlow-pricedimportedclinkers.RCEP將改善區域內跨國投資的條件，這或將有利千泡螺水泥(00914HK)和信義玻璃(00868HK)等水泥及玻璞廠商的海外擴張。然而，中國自越南的水泥進口可能會更加難以通過非市場手段進行控制，令華東當地的水泥企業面臨更多低價邊口熟料的競爭口Thegradualeliminationoftariffsisbeneficialtotheexportofsolarmaterials(especiallysolarmodules).Inthelongrun,theRCEPagreementisexpectedtostimulateinvestmentinsolarenergyanddemandforsolarmaterialsintheregion.飛稅的逐步取消有利千太陽能材料（特別是組件）的出口。長看，協議有望拉動區域內對太陽能的投資以及太陽能材料的需求。巠竺W玄它弇3』點al巠竺W玄它弇3』點al＿，帶動電力消費衙求但同時也可能由于海外風電投資的增加而推升國零部件價格，對風電運營酕帶來成本端的壓力。＿TheestablishmentoftheRCEPwillhelpmitigatetheimpactofSino-UStradefriction.ThejoiningofJapanandSoutheawillincreasedemandforapparelsodomesticientedtextilesandapparelcompanieswillbenefitmostfromEvenfordomesticclothingcompanies,lowertariffscanalsoreduceprocurementcostsofsomeawmaterials,ortherelatedcostsoftransferringproductioncapacitytoSoutheastAsia,whichwillhelpimprovetheprofitabilityofclothingcompaniesinChina.1一P總0BSRCEP的建立有助美貿易摩擦的影響El的加入將提引對服裝產品的需求因此國內的紡織服裝企業將從中受益最多即銷也可1一P總0BSConsume「-Food&Beverage消費－食品飲料Consumer-HouseholdProducts消費－日用品Consumer-Retailing消費－零售ElectricEquipment電力設備

Neutral中性Neutral中性Neutral中性Positive正面

TheRCEPwillhavealimitedimpactonthefood&ageSomeASEANcountriesethemainimportsourcesfm,sugard.,astmadeanytariffreductionsnoreliminatedcommitmentstoimportsoftheseproductsfromASEANcountriesandwillmaintaincurrenttariffrates.「dairyproducts,tariffson「dairyproductsfromAustraliaandNewZealandwillgraduallystarttoreduce10「s.TheRCEPwillnothavesignificantimpactonthedomesticdairyindustryinthemediumterm,butitispositivetodomesticdairycompaniestermsofoverseasinvestmentandcapacityexpansion.NqENURCEPNqENU玄它弇響但有利千改善國內乳企淘外投資環境及進行海外產能擴張ThedirectimpactfromtheRCEPonthehouseholdproductsindustrywillnotbesosignificant.Withregardtothesupplyofimportedrawthereislittleroomformarginaltariffimprovement.Atpresent,helongrun,theRCEPwillofferahighly-integratedbusinesswhichisveryconducivetotheglobalexpansionofChina'sconsumerstaplesgiants.Forinstance,Vinda(03331HK)establisheditsSoutheastAsiaregionalheadquartersinMalaysiain2019,whileHengan(01044HK)enteredtheSoutheastAsianmarketin1H2020.Chineseconsumerbrandsarekickingofftheglobalizationprocess.WebelievethattheRCEPmaynotonlypromotethetadeofminalhouseholdproductswithintheregion,butalsofacilitatemulti-nationalproductionandsales,whichwouldenableChina'sbrandstofollowtheexpansionpathofglobalFMCGgiants(suchasKao,Unicharm,andP&G)andtoproducenewgrowthdrivers.玄它弇巠竺Wal巠竺Wal＿3』點但從長遠來看RCEP將提供一體化的營商環境十分有利于我國日用品品牌實現全球化擴張口維達(03331HK)2019年在馬來西亞設立東南亞區域總部而恒安(01044HK)則在2020。中國消費品牌的全球化進程正在拉開序幕。我們相信RCEP一步促進區域內的終端產品貿易，也將有利千我國日用消費品廠商進行跨國生P&G＿3』點Nomate「ialimpactonretailenterprises.TheRCEPmaybenefithomeappliancescompanieswhichhaveexportsbusiness.對零售企業沒有明顯影響RCEP利好擁有出口業務的家電公司。Thegradualeliminationoftariffsisbeneficialtotheexportof「.negrun,etexpectedtostimulateinvestmentinenergyinfrastructureanddemandfor「generationequipmentintheregion1一P總0BS電1一P總0BSe基建Internet互聯網Machinery機械Petrochemicals石化

Positive正面Positive正面Positive正面Positive正面

IncreaseinmanufacturinginvestmentandtradingvolumewillstimulatetuctureinvestmentontransportationandtelecommunicationInadditionreductioninimport/exporttaxwillincreaseprofitabilityofinfrastructureengineeringcontractorswhichhaveheavyequipmentuseneeds.ChinaRailwayGroup(00390HK),ChinaRailwaytuction(01186HK),ChinaCommunicationtuctionCompany(01800HK)andChinaCRSC(03969HK)arethemainNqENU制造業投資和貿易恥的增加將刺激在能源、交通及電信方面的基扯使用i設施承包碩的盈利能力中國鐵(00390HKNqENUTheRCEPwillintroducealowe「tariffbetweenthe15countriesintheAsia-Pacificregion,thereforethisagreementcouldbethecatalysttoacceleratethedevelopmentofcross-bordere-commerce.Alibaba-SW(09988HK)andJD-SW(09618HK)willbebeneficiariesastheyhaveinvestedine-commerceenterprisesinthosecountriesorhaveoperatedcross-bordere-commerceontheirown.RCEP將在亞太地區的15個家之間引入較低的稅，因此。阿里巴巴-SW9988HK)-SW9618HK)者之一，因為它們已經在這些國家的電商企業中進行投資已經營了其跨境電商TheRCEPistoboostexportsofplasticectionmolding玄它弇almachines(PIMM)andmajordownstreamproductssuchashomeappliances,consumerelectronicsandautoparts,whichwillbenefitPIMMmanufacturerssuchasHaitianInternational(01882HK).CIMCEnric(03899HK)isexpectedtobenefitfromincreaseddemandforcleanenergyequipmentandengineeringprojectsintheregion.TechtronicIndustries(00669HK)mayexploremoregrowthopportunitiesintheAsia-Pacificregionoutsideits仆ional「ketsin玄它弇al＿巠竺W3』點RCEP電零部件等工要下(01882HK)等注塑機廠(03899HK)將受惠千區域內清潔能源裝備和工程項目的衙求提升創科實業(00669美傳統市＿巠竺W3』點TheRECPtradeagreementcanpotentiallystimulatecapitalinvestmentinChina'spetrochemicalindustryintheun,sinceitcanfacilitateexportsforChina'spetrochemicalsproductsandiousteamproducts,includingtextilesandThistrendwillbenefitSinopecEngineering(02386HK).1一P總0BS由于RECP的簽署有利于中國石化產品以及下游紡織品、玩具等產品的出口，1一P總0BSPorts港口Property房地廣ShippingandLogistics航運及物流資科因丞君安困你。MarketViews市場觀點

Positive正面Neutral中性Positive正面

WebelievethatthesigningoftheRCEPwillsteadilypromotethedevelopmentofa-regionaltradeinAsiathusactivelybenefitingthroughputgrowthintheegion.WeexpectthattheenhancedtraderelationshipbetweenChinaandASEANsupportedbytheeementwillcontinuetoincreaseportthroughputintheBeibuGulfegion;StrengtheningtradebetweenChina,JapanandSouthKorea,whichwillboostthroughputgrowthinBohaiRimandYangtzeRiverDelia.Atthesametime,theintentionintheagreementformoreconveniencecustomsclearanceforcold-chaintransportationcommoditiesisexpectedtoimprovereefercontainervolumeandoptimizeportcontainerstructureinthefuture.WebelievethatthiswillcontinuetodrivethroughputgrowthforChinaMerchantsPort(00144HK)andCOSCOShippingports(01199HK)inAsia.NqENURCEP，因而對區域內吞吐量的增長有著積極作用我們預計協議支待下中國與東盟的貿易加強將繼續抬升北部灣區域港口吞吐量；中韓貿易的加強將拉動環渤泡及長三。同時，協議下對千冷鏈運輸商品通關便利性的要求預計將在未來提升冷藏箱并優化港口箱址結構NqENULittledirectimpactonChina'spropertysector,givenitsdomesticdemand-drivennature.由千行業主要受國內需求推