1、SWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,|+86212329BringingChinatotheIndustry 30JuneWeather Utilities:SectorInvestmentDaniel Huang Rong Ye A0230512110001 DimiDuA0230514070005 On 26 June, the China Meteorological Administration NinoSWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanj

2、ingRoad,|+86212329BringingChinatotheIndustry 30JuneWeather Utilities:SectorInvestmentDaniel Huang Rong Ye A0230512110001 DimiDuA0230514070005 On 26 June, the China Meteorological Administration Nino continue through the Northern Hemisphere until end2015. This extreme condition may bring s rainfall a

3、nd reduce temperatures, thus demand,particularlyforDecelerating demand. The El Nino of 2015 is expected to reduce temperatures southern China and increase he north. Since the majority of Chinas is he south (58%), this will likely decelerate er demand, airconditioning unit usage down despite the trad

4、itional peak season. Our observation previous El Nino impacts found er demand to decelerate. According Danielour calculations, a 1% decrease in er demand growth could result in decrease in er demand growth by 0.1%. We expect the growth demandwillfallto3%inRelated “Hardborn“ArrivalofFinding substitut

5、ions. According to our observations on the past two El Nino rainfall significantly increased, resulting in a higher utilisation of er. Due to clean energy characteristics, electricity produced by lants is purchased er plants. Therefore, the National Grid prior er produced by substitution effect will

6、 reduce erdemand. We t a 1% increase heer utilisation could erutilisation to decrease by 0.3%. “ersharingexpect the utilisation of er will remain flat throughout in 2015, reaching hours (+5% YoY). On the decreaseto4,219hours(10.4%xpect er utilisation to continue er outperforms er. We ve extreme weat

7、her conditions er utilisation. We therefore reiterate result in a erform rating for ernational (902:HK). However, we see ernational (2380:HK; NR) as most likely to benefit t 33% of The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed companymentionedhisreport ”),butthenweshallprovidef

8、inan l advisory servisubjectto therelevantlawsandregulations.Any affiliates of the company may holdinstalled capacity is er er and 36% of its 14A net profit stems from its equitiesof,exceed 1 percent of ied shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment

9、bingservi. The Company fulfills its ofdisclosurewithinitssphereknowledge.Thec ntsmay2relevant disclosure materials or comunder disclosure column for furtheroSource: Bloomberg, SWSinformation.Thec ntsshallhavea comprehensiveunderstandingof eruponthe本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用+/PEPBIndustry

10、June投資要點國家氣象局于 26 日了的發展情況，今年的對我影響將貫穿整個 2015 天氣將帶來大量降雨并使氣溫出現反常，這都影響電力的需求，尤其不利火電行業需求下降IndustryJune投資要點國家氣象局于 26 日了的發展情況，今年的對我影響將貫穿整個 2015 天氣將帶來大量降雨并使氣溫出現反常，這都影響電力的需求，尤其不利火電行業需求下降。2015的將壓低中國南方氣溫，同中國北方氣由分布于中國南方更為稠密（58居住于南方），較少居民對空調的使用，因此來自居民的用電需求也將減弱觀察發現期間居民的用電增速往往遲緩。根測算用居民用電增速每下降1%，整體電力需求增速也將下降 1替代效應。通

11、過對歷史數據的分預計 15 年整體電力需求增速為 3%期間降水量將顯著加，這將增加水電的利用率。由于是清潔能源，水力發電將被電網優先采購因此增量水電將替代部分火力發電的市場份預計水電利用小時數每升 1%，火電利用小時數將下降 0.3%。我預計水電的利用小時增速將在下半年維持穩定，全年水電利用小時數將達到 3872同比增長 5%。火電利用小時數將在下半年繼續下降4219時10.4%。水電優于火電預天氣將削減火電的產能利用率。因此重申國際（902HK）的。提醒投資者關注中國電力（2380 HK）。基其 33%的水電裝機占比和水電 14 年 36%的凈利潤貢獻，中國電力將天帶來的產能利用率。本通過

12、僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPageIndustryJuneOn 26 June, the China Meteorological Administration Nino continue through the Northern Hemisphere until end2015. This extreme condition may bring s rainfall and reduce temperatures, thus demand,particularlyforDecel

13、erating demand. The El Nino of 2015 is expected to reduce temperatures southern China and increase he north. Since the majority of Chinas is he south (58%), this will likely decelerate er demand, airconditioning unit usage down despite the traditionalIndustryJuneOn 26 June, the China Meteorological

14、Administration Nino continue through the Northern Hemisphere until end2015. This extreme condition may bring s rainfall and reduce temperatures, thus demand,particularlyforDecelerating demand. The El Nino of 2015 is expected to reduce temperatures southern China and increase he north. Since the majo

15、rity of Chinas is he south (58%), this will likely decelerate er demand, airconditioning unit usage down despite the traditional peak season. Our observation previous El Nino impacts found er demand to decelerate. According our calculations, a 1% decrease in er demand growth could result in decrease

16、 in er demand growth by 0.1%. We expect the growth demandwillfallto3%inFig1:PopulationspreadFigerconsumptionwillgrow3%in 0PrimarySecondaryTertiarySource: ChinaisticYearBook, SWSSource: CEIC, SWSFig3:DuringtheElNinoeventindecreasedbyerconsumptiongrowthfrom Source: Ministry of Environmental Protection

17、, SWS 本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPageIndustryJuneFinding substitutions. According to our observations on the past two El Nino rainfall significantly increased, resulting in a higher utilisation of er. Due to clean energy characteristics, electricity pro

18、duced by lants is purchased er plants. Therefore, the National Grid prior er produced by substitution effect will reduce er demand. We t a 1% increase er utilisation could er utilisation to decrease by 0.3%. expect the utilisation of er will remain flat throughout in 2015, reaching hours (+5% YoY).

19、On the decreaseto4,219hours(10.4%xpect er utilisation to continue Fig4:SignificantincreaseinrainfallsduringElNino(1998&Fig5:OurforecastsIndustryJuneFinding substitutions. According to our observations on the past two El Nino rainfall significantly increased, resulting in a higher utilisation of er.

20、Due to clean energy characteristics, electricity produced by lants is purchased er plants. Therefore, the National Grid prior er produced by substitution effect will reduce er demand. We t a 1% increase er utilisation could er utilisation to decrease by 0.3%. expect the utilisation of er will remain

21、 flat throughout in 2015, reaching hours (+5% YoY). On the decreaseto4,219hours(10.4%xpect er utilisation to continue Fig4:SignificantincreaseinrainfallsduringElNino(1998&Fig5:Ourforecastsindicatethermalutilizationtowhilehydroutilizationtoincreasein02,252 2,207 0siveprecipi Source: ChinaisticYearBoo

22、k, SWSSource: CEIC, SWSer outperforms in a decrease in thermal erform rating for Huanenger. We ve extreme weather conditions er utilisation. We therefore reiterate ernational (902:HK). However, we see ernational (2380:HK; as most likely to benefit t 33% of installed capacity is er er and 36% of its

23、14A net profit stems from its Fig6:Capacityinstallation(HPIvsFig7:Netprofitcontributedbyforeris Natual Source: Companydata, SWSSource: Companydata, SWS本通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPageIndustryJuneInformation Theviewshisreportaccura yreflectalviewsofyst. y

24、sttneitherhe/shenorhis/herasso teservesanofficerofnorhasanyfinan erestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbyyst. Noneofthelistedcorporationsreviewedoranypartyhasprovidedoragreedtoprovideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnectionwiththisreporttoanyofyst,theCompanyorthecompany(ies). Agroupcompany

25、(ies)oftheCompanytthey,whetherindividuallyorasagroup(i)arenotinvolvedinanymarketmakingforanyofthelistedcorporationreviewed;or(ii)doveanyindividualemployedIndustryJuneInformation Theviewshisreportaccura yreflectalviewsofyst. ysttneitherhe/shenorhis/herasso teservesanofficerofnorhasanyfinan erestsinre

26、lationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbyyst. Noneofthelistedcorporationsreviewedoranypartyhasprovidedoragreedtoprovideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnectionwiththisreporttoanyofyst,theCompanyorthecompany(ies). Agroupcompany(ies)oftheCompanytthey,whetherindividuallyorasagroup(i)arenotinvolvedinanym

27、arketmakingforanyofthelistedcorporationreviewed;or(ii)doveanyindividualemployedbyorasso tednygroupcompany(ies)oftheCompanyservinganofficerofanyofthelistedcorporationreviewed;or(iii)dono presently or withhe last 12 months, have any investment bveanyfinan erestinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedo

28、r(iv)doingrelationshipwiththelistedcorporationUndertakings of I(We)am(are)conferredthealQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAsso tionofChinaandhaveregisteredtheyst.Iherebyethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligence,alandprudentethodsandlegitimateinformationishisr

29、eport.Iamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreport.Ihaveneverbeen,amnot,andwillnotcompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecific Disclosure with respect to the CompanymendationsoropinionsThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecurities. Thecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentc

30、onsultinginstituteapprovedby withthecodenumberReleasingsecuritiesresearchreportsisthebasicformofthesecuritiesinvestmentconsulting.Thecompanyyzethevaluesormarketofsecuritiesandrelatedproductsorotherrelevantaffectingfactors,provideinvestment ing securities research reports solely to its c nts.ysisadvi

31、ceonsecuritiesvaluation/investmentrating,etc.TheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledge. Thec ntsmaycontactfortherelevantmaterialsorforystsqualifications，thearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliates Security Investment Rating：Whenmeasuringthedifferencebet fine the terms as fol

32、lows:nthemarkupofthesecuritytofthemarketsarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreport,we n20%upsideovera6monthBUY:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten20%upsideovera12monthOutperform: Share price performance is expected to generate n 1020% upside over a 12month n10%downsideto10%upsideovera12mo

33、ntherform:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten1020%downsideovera12monthSELL:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten20%downsideovera12monthWhenmeasuringthedifferencebet we define the terms as follows:nthemarkupoftheindustryindextofthemarketsarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseoftheOverweight：In

34、dustry performs nt of thewholeEqual weight： Industry performs about the same tofthewholemarket；IndustryperformstofthewholeWewouldliketoremindtdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandards.Weadopttherelative mendtherelativeweightingsofinvestment.Thec ntsstob

35、uyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedon theiractualsituation,suchasrportfoliostructuresandothersaryfactors.Thec ntsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastohecompleteopinionsandinformationandallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreach.TheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystem.Theindustryclassificati

36、onisailableatournelifyouHSCEI is the arkThisreportistobeusedsolelybythec ntsofSWSResearch.(subsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecurities,hereinafterreferredtoastheTheCompanywillnotdeemanyersonasitsc ntnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisThisreportisbasedonpublicinformation,however, theauthenticity,accuracyorcomp

37、letenessofsuchinformationisnot warranted bytheCompany.The materials,tools,opinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinareforthec ntsreferenceonly,andarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvi ionforthe sale or purchase of any security or other investment instruments.Thec nts tthetextmessageremindermendationarenon

38、abriefcommunicationof theresearch). Thec ntsmayaskforfollowupexplanationswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsite( HYPERLINK http:/w/ http:/w they so wish.Thematerials,opinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleased. The,valuesi

39、nvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohere are inconsistent with the materials, opinions and estimates contained herein. Save and except as otherwise stipulatedhis report, the contactor upon the consultingservispageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideThec ntssh

40、allconsidertheerestsayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport,and shallnotbasetheirssolelyonthisreport.Thec ntsshouldmakeinvestmentsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownrisk.Pleasebetinanythecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththec nts.Whetherwrittenororal,anycommitmenttosharegainsorloss

41、essecuritiesinvestmentisinvalid.Theinvestmentandservi for individual corneedsofindividualreferredtoaynotbesuitableforcertainc ntsand shallnotalestmentobjectives,finan lreinaresuitableforc ntsparticularsituations;andtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifUndernoshalltheinformationcontainedherein

42、ortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsan shalltheCompanybeheld responsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyone.Pleasebeparticularlycautiousto the risks and exures of the market via investment.Independentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdeci this report where the rece

43、iver of this report is not a c nt of the Company.isrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationThe sesses all copyrights of this report which shall be treated as nonpublic information. The Company s related to this Unless otherwise indicated in writing, all the copyrights of all the material

44、s herein belong to the he absence of any prior authorization by 通過 僅提供自然人monitorInner(monitorInner)使用PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPageIndustryJuneCompanyinwriting,nopartofthisreportshallbecopied,photocopied,replicatedorredistributedtoanyersoninanyformbyanymeans,orbeusedanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeIndustryJuneCompanyinwriting,nopartofthisreportshallbecopied,photocopied,re