1、通貨膨脹與失業之間的短期權衡取舍 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.N. 格里高利曼昆經濟學原理35 2013 Cen

2、gage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.1*本章我們將探索這些問題的答案：本章我們將探索這些問題的答案：短期內通貨膨脹與失業有什么關系？長期

3、內呢？ 什么因素會改變通貨膨脹與失業之間的這種關系？ 減少通貨膨脹的短期成本是什么？ 為什么在20世紀90年代美國的通貨膨脹與失業率都很低？ 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protect

4、ed website for classroom use.2*介紹介紹 在長期中，通貨膨脹與失業是不相關的： 通貨膨脹率主要取決于貨幣供給的增長率 自然失業率取決于最低工資法，工會的市場勢力，效率工資以及尋找工作的有效性 經濟學十大原理之一： 社會面臨通貨膨脹和失業之間的短期權衡取舍社會面臨通貨膨脹和失業之間的短期權衡取舍 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted i

5、n a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.335.1 菲利普斯曲線 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with

6、a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.4*菲利普斯曲線菲利普斯曲線 菲利普斯曲線：菲利普斯曲線：一條表示通貨膨脹與失業之間短期權衡取舍的曲線 1958年，菲利普斯（A.W. Phillips）說明英國名義工資增長率與失業率之間的負相關關系 1960年，保羅薩繆爾森（Paul Samuelson）與羅伯特索洛（Robert Solow）發現美國通貨膨脹與失業之間也存在這種負相關關系，他們把它稱為“菲利普斯曲線” 2013 Cengage Learnin

7、g. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.5*菲利普斯曲線的推導菲利普斯曲線的推導 假設今年 P = 100 下面的圖形表示明年可能出現的兩種結果：A.總需求低，物價

8、水平上升緩慢（低通貨膨脹），低產出，高失業B.總需求高，物價水平上升快（高通貨膨脹），高產出，低失業 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for class

9、room use.6*菲利普斯曲線的推導菲利普斯曲線的推導失業率通貨膨脹率PCA. 總需求低，低通貨膨脹，高失業率B. 總需求高，高通貨膨脹，低失業率YPSRASAD1AD2Y1103A105Y2B6%3%A4%5%B 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or ser

10、vice or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.7*菲利普斯曲線：一個政策菜單？菲利普斯曲線：一個政策菜單？ 由于財政政策與貨幣政策都能會總需求，菲利普斯曲線給政策制定者提供了一個可以選擇各種經濟結果的菜單： 低失業與高通貨膨脹 低通貨膨脹與高失業 兩者之間的任何情況 20世紀60年代，美國的數據支持菲利普斯曲線。許多人認為菲利普斯曲線是穩定可信的 仙女屋http:/ 愛看電影網http:/ 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be cop

11、ied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.8菲利普斯曲線的證據？菲利普斯曲線的證據？通貨膨脹率 (年百分比)失業率（百分比）在20世紀60年代， 美國政策制定者選擇以提高通貨膨脹率為代價來降低失業率196163656264666768 201

12、3 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.935.2 菲利普斯曲線的移動：預期的作用 2013 Cengage Learning.

13、All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.10*垂直的長期菲利普斯曲線垂直的長期菲利普斯曲線 1968年，米爾頓弗里德曼和愛德蒙費爾普斯指出通貨膨脹與失業之間的權衡取舍是暫

14、時的 自然率假說：自然率假說：認為無論通貨膨脹率如何，失業最終要回到其正常率或自然律的觀點 這是基于古典二分法和垂直的長期總供給曲線 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected w

15、ebsite for classroom use.11*垂直的長期菲利普斯曲線垂直的長期菲利普斯曲線失業率通貨膨脹在長期中，貨幣增長越快只會導致通貨膨脹率越高 YPLRASAD1AD2自然產量率自然失業率P1P2LRPC低通脹高通脹11 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain produ

16、ct or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.12*使理論與證據一致使理論與證據一致 來自20世紀60年代的證據： 菲利普斯曲線向右下方傾斜 理論（弗里德曼與費爾普斯）： 長期菲利普斯曲線是垂直的 為使理論與證據相一致，弗里德曼與費爾普斯引進了一個新的變量：預期通貨膨脹預期通貨膨脹 衡量人們預期物價總水平的變動幅度 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated,

17、in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.13*菲利普斯曲線方程菲利普斯曲線方程在短期中 美聯儲可以使失業率降到自然失業率以下，而使實際通貨膨脹高于預期通貨膨脹在長期中 預期通貨膨脹與現實相符，失業率回到自然失業率，無論通貨膨脹是高還是低失業率自然失業率= a實際通貨膨脹預期通貨膨脹 2013 Ce

18、ngage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.14*預期通貨膨脹如何移動菲利普斯曲線預期通貨膨脹如何移動菲利普斯曲線最初，預期通貨膨脹與實際通貨

19、膨脹都等于3%,失業率 =自然率 (6%)聯儲使實際通貨膨脹比預期通貨膨脹高出2%，失業率降到4%在長期中，預期通貨膨脹會上升到5%，菲利普斯曲線向右上方移動，失業率回到自然失業率水平失業率通貨膨脹率PC1LRPC6%3%PC24%5%ABC主動學習 1 一個數值例子自然失業率 = 5%，預期通貨膨脹率 = 2%，在菲利普斯曲線方程中的 a = 0.5A.畫出長期菲利普斯曲線B.找出實際通貨膨脹為 0%，6%時的失業率，并畫出短期菲利普斯曲線C.如果預期通貨膨脹率上升至 4%。重復B過程D.如果自然失業率下降到 4%，畫出新的長期菲利普斯曲線，再重復B過程 2013 Cengage Learn

20、ing. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.主動學習 1 參考答案01234567012345678unemployment rateinflation rateL

21、RPCA預期通貨膨脹率的上升使菲利普斯曲線向右移動PCDLRPCDPCBPCC自然失業率的下降使兩條曲線都向左移動 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website fo

22、r classroom use.17菲利普斯曲線的破滅菲利普斯曲線的破滅通貨膨脹率 (年百分比)失業率 (百分比)20世紀70年代初期：雖然通貨膨脹率很高，失業率還是在上升 費里德曼和菲利普斯解釋：人們對通貨膨脹的預期趕上了現實1961636562646667686970717273 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distribu

23、ted with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.1835.3菲利普斯曲線的移動：供給沖擊 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain pr

24、oduct or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.19*菲利普斯曲線的移動：供給沖擊菲利普斯曲線的移動：供給沖擊 供給沖擊：供給沖擊：直接改變企業的成本和價格，使經濟中的總供給曲線移動，進而使菲利普斯曲線移動的事件 例如：石油價格的大幅上漲 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use a

25、s permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.20*不利供給沖擊如何移動菲利普斯曲線不利供給沖擊如何移動菲利普斯曲線失業率通貨膨脹率SRAS 向左移動，價格上升，產出與就業下降隨著菲利普斯曲線向右移動，通貨膨脹率與失業率都上升YPSRAS1ADPC1PC2ABSRAS2AY1P1Y2BP2 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved.

26、 May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.21*20世紀世紀70年代的石油價格沖擊年代的石油價格沖擊美聯儲用更快的貨幣增長來抵消1973年的第一次石油價格沖擊結果： 高預期通貨膨脹使菲利普斯曲線進一步向右移動 1

27、979年，石油價格再次上漲，聯儲面臨更艱難的權衡取舍38.001/198132.501/198014.851/197910.111/1974$ 3.561/1973每桶原油價格 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on

28、a password-protected website for classroom use.2220世紀世紀70年代的石油價格沖擊年代的石油價格沖擊通貨膨脹率 (年百分比)失業率 (百分比)供給沖擊和預期通貨膨脹率的上升使聯儲面臨更艱難的權衡取舍1972737475767778798081 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license dist

29、ributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.2335.4降低通貨膨脹的代價 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain pro

30、duct or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.24*降低通貨膨脹的代價降低通貨膨脹的代價 反通貨膨脹：反通貨膨脹：降低通貨膨脹率 為降低通貨膨脹率，美聯儲必須降低貨幣增長率，以減少總需求 短期：產出下降，失業上升 長期：產出與失業回到各自的自然率水平 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for

31、 use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.25*反通貨膨脹的貨幣政策反通貨膨脹的貨幣政策緊縮性貨幣政策使經濟從A 點移到B點隨著時間的推移， 預期通貨膨脹下降，菲利普斯曲線向下移動在長期中，經濟回到C點：自然失業率， 較低的通貨膨脹率 u-rateinflationLRPCPC1natural rate of unemploymentAPC2CB 2013 C

32、engage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.26*降低通貨膨脹的代價降低通貨膨脹的代價 反通貨膨脹要忍受一段時間的高失業與低產量 犧牲率：犧

33、牲率：在通貨膨脹減少一個百分點的過程中每年產量損失的百分點數 犧牲率一般估算：5 就是說通貨膨脹率每減少一個百分點，在這種轉變中每年必須犧牲的產量是 5% 這種降低通貨膨脹的代價可以在幾年之內分攤，例如：為使通貨膨脹率降低6個百分點 可以犧牲一年GDP 的30% 或者犧牲三年內每年GDP的10% 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license di

34、stributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.27*理性預期與無代價地反通貨膨脹理性預期與無代價地反通貨膨脹 理性預期：理性預期：當人們在預測未來時，可以充分運用他們所擁有的全部信息，包括有關政府政策的信息的理論 早期支持者： 羅伯特盧卡斯（Robert Lucas），托馬斯薩金特 (Thomas Sargent)，羅伯特巴羅（Robert Barro） 意味著反通貨膨脹的成本可能要小得多 2013 Cengage Learni

35、ng. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.28*理性預期與無代價地反通貨膨脹理性預期與無代價地反通貨膨脹 如果聯儲向每個人做出降低通貨膨脹的可信承諾 那預期通貨膨脹

36、會下降，短期菲利普斯曲線向下移動 結果：反通貨膨脹引起的失業比傳統犧牲率估計的要小 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.

37、29*沃爾克的反通貨膨脹沃爾克的反通貨膨脹美聯儲主席保羅沃爾克 在經濟高通貨膨脹與高失業的1979年底被任命為美聯儲主席 轉而實行反通貨膨脹的政策1981-1984年： 由于當時實行擴張性的財政政策，聯儲必須實行非常緊縮的貨幣政策來降低通貨膨脹 反通貨膨脹成功：通貨膨脹率從10% 降到 4%，但卻以高失業率為代價 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a l

38、icense distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.30沃爾克的反通貨膨脹沃爾克的反通貨膨脹通貨膨脹率 (年百分比)失業率 (百分比)反通貨膨脹的代價非常高在1982-1983年，失業率接近10%19798081828384858687 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in w

39、hole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.31*格林斯潘時代格林斯潘時代 1986年：石油價格下降了50% 1989 -1990年： 失業率下降，通貨膨脹上升，美聯 儲提高利率，引起經濟的微小衰退 20世紀90年代： 失業率和通貨膨脹都下降 2001年：不利的需求沖擊使美國經濟經歷了十年中的第一次衰退，政策

40、決策者用擴張性的貨幣政策與擴張性的財政政策幫助結束了這次衰退格林斯潘格林斯潘 聯邦公開市場委員會主席 1987.8-2006.1 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected web

41、site for classroom use.32格林斯潘時代格林斯潘時代通貨膨脹率 (年百分比)失業率 (百分比)在格林斯潘擔任美聯儲主席的大部分時間里，通貨膨脹與失業率都較低198790922000949698060205 2013 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website