1、人民幣實際匯率變動論文：人民幣實際匯率變動 美中貿(mào)易逆差 SITC 分類比較優(yōu)勢【中文摘要】 自 2007 年美國金融危機以來，美中巨額貿(mào)易逆差致 使兩國貿(mào)易摩擦逐步升級，美國試圖將中國列為匯率操縱國，并在國 內(nèi)鼓吹“人民幣升值論”；然而人民幣升值真的能解決美中貿(mào)易逆差 問題嗎？本文采用 1996-2010 年人民幣實際匯率變動與美中貿(mào)易月度 數(shù)據(jù),使用ADF 檢驗、協(xié)整和格蘭杰因果檢驗計量方法，對人民幣實際 匯率變動與美中貿(mào)易逆差總額和結(jié)構(gòu)逆差的關(guān)系進行實證分析和成 因分析,得出以下 3個重要結(jié)論：(1)1996 年至 2010 年的月度數(shù)據(jù)實 證分析表明，人民幣實際匯率變動并非美中貿(mào)易逆差

2、擴大的長期原 因。(2)2005 年 7 月至 2010年的月度數(shù)據(jù)實證分析表明，人民幣實際 匯率變動與美中貿(mào)易逆差之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系，但沒有通過 格蘭杰因果檢驗，因此沒有證據(jù)支持人民幣實際匯率變動是美中貿(mào)易 逆差擴大的真正原因。(3)美中貿(mào)易逆差主要集中在原料制成品、機 械及運輸裝備和雜項制品勞動密集型產(chǎn)品和資源易耗性新產(chǎn)品方面。 這些研究結(jié)論有力地反駁了“人民幣升值論”的錯誤觀點。然而，對于美中貿(mào)易逆差擴大化，我們做出以下四點解釋：第一，比較優(yōu)勢決定 美中當(dāng)前的貿(mào)易模式；第二，美國對華大量的產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移增加了美中貿(mào) 易逆差;第三,美國對華正的凈投資加大了美中貿(mào)易逆差；第四,美國 高科技

3、產(chǎn)品的出口限制減少美國對華出口。因此，本文認(rèn)為中美兩國 必須針對各自發(fā)揮比較優(yōu)勢，進一步優(yōu)化貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)，鼓勵貿(mào)易自由，以 實現(xiàn)雙方的貿(mào)易平衡。【英文摘要】Si nee finan cial crisis happe nedin USA n 2007,the huge USA-China trade deficits has contributed to the update of tradecon flicts betwee n two coun tries and the America n government tried todefine China as a currency manip

4、ulator and brag the theory of the RMBappreciation. However, will the appreciationof RMEdecrease the tradedeficits between USAandChin a?This paper will an alyze the relati on shipbetwee n cha ngesof the RMETeal exchange rate and USA-China trade deficits based on themonthly data from 1996 to 2010 by u

5、sing the classical econo metricsmethods, such as ADF test, coin tegrati on and gran ger causal relati onshiptest; and the n wecometo these fourkey con clusi ons: (1) The empirical an alysis based on the monthly datafrom 1996 to 2010 reveals that the changes of the RMEEeal exchangerate can t explain

6、the expansion of USA-China trade deficits well from theIon g-term respect. (2) Although wefi nd they have a Ion g-term stable cointegrati onrelati on shipbased on the empirical research from the July 2005 to 2010, such relati onshipwill soon be proved not to pass the Gran ger CausalTest and thus the

7、re is no evide nee to support that cha nges of theRMBeal exchange rate are due to the expansion of USA-China tradedeficits. (3) USA-China trade deficits focuses on thefollowi ng commodities: Manu factured goods classified chiefly by material;Machinery and transport equipment; miscellaneousmanu factu

8、red articles.All those research results str on glychallenged the wrong theory of the RMBappreciation. Such hugeUSA-China trade deficits can be possibly well explained by the followingfour reasons: firstly, the respective comparative adva ntages determ inesthe prese nt trade mode; sec on dly, the in

9、dustry tran sfer from USA toChina will in crease the trade deficits; thirdly, the extra investment out ofUSA will be a significantcause of the trade deficitsexpansion; at last, theUSAexport barriers in the High Technical field will deduce the export toChina. Consequently, we continue our research to

10、 make threesuggestions concerning this topic: firstly, both of coun tries might utilizetheir comparative adva ntages and promote the trade structure; sec on dly,both of the gover nment should hold an objective view about the hugetrade deficits and devoted to con struct a free trade market; thirdly, the Chinese gover nment must pay more atte nti