1、經營分析與估值克雷沙G.帕利普 保羅M.希利摘自書籍“Business Analysis and Valuation”第五版第一章節1.簡介 本章的目的是勾勒出一個全面的財務報表分析框架。因為財務報表提供給公共企業經濟活動最廣泛使用的數據，投資者和其他利益相關者依靠財務報告評估計劃企業和管理績效率。各種各樣的問題可以通過財務狀況及經營分析解決，如下面的示例所示：一位證券分析師可能會對問：“我的公司有多好？這家公司是否符合我的期望？如果沒有，為什么不呢？鑒于我對公司當前和未來業績的評估，該公司的股票價值是多少？”一位信貸員可能需要問：“這家公司貸款給這家公司有什么貸款？公司管理其流動性如何？公司

2、的經營風險是什么？公司的融資和股利政策所產生的附加風險是什么？“一位管理顧問可能會問：“公司經營的行業結構是什么？該策略通過在工業各個企業追求的是什么？不同企業在行業中的相對表現是什么？”公司經理可能會問：“我的公司是正確的估值的投資者嗎？是我們在通信程序中有足夠的投資者來促進這一過程？”財務報表分析是一項有價值的活動，當管理者在一個公司的戰略和各種體制因素完成后，他們不可能完全披露這些信息。在這一設置中，外部分析師試圖通過分析財務報表數據來創建“中端信息”，從而獲得有價值的關于該公司目前業績和未來前景的展望。了解財務報表分析所做的貢獻，這是很重要的理解在資本市場的運作，財務報告的作用，形成財

3、務報表制度的力量。因此，我們首先簡要說明這些力量，然后我們討論的步驟，分析師必須執行，以提取信息的財務報表，并提供有價值的預測。2.從經營活動到財務報表企業管理者負責從公司的環境中獲取物理和財務資源，并利用它們為公司的投資者創造價值。當公司在資本成本的超額投資時，就創造了價值。管理者制定經營戰略，實現這一目標，并通過業務活動實施。企業的經營活動受其經濟環境和經營戰略的影響。經濟環境包括企業的產業、投入和產出的市場，以及公司經營的規章制度。公司的業務戰略決定企業如何定位自己的環境中獲得競爭優勢。2.1會計制度特點1：權責發生制會計企業財務報告的基本特征之一是權責發生制，它們是以權責發生制而不是現

4、金會計制備的。不像現金會計，權責發生制會計與經濟交流活動和實際收付現金相關的成本和效益的記錄之間的區別。凈收益是應計制會計下的主要周期性業績指標。計算凈收入，生態影響的經濟交易記錄的基礎上的預期，并不一定是實際的現金支付。預期的現金收入交付的產品或服務被確認為收入，和預期的現金流出與這些收入被確認為費用。會計的必要性來自于投資者對定期財務報告的需求。因為企業進行經濟交易，在持續的基礎上，在報告期導致了一個有趣的基本測量問題，結束時的會計帳簿任意閉合。因為現金會計報告的不完整性，在生態經濟帶來的后果所進行的交易。在一定時期內，權責發生制會計的目的是提供一個公司的周期性表現更完整的信息。2.2會計

5、制度特點2：會計準則和審計采用權責發生制會計是在許多重要的復雜性企業財務報告的中心。由于權責發生制會計處理當前事件的預期未來現金的后果，它是主觀的，依賴于各種假設條件。誰應該負責制定這些假設條件負主要責任？一個公司的管理者被賦予作出適當的估計和假設編制財務報表的任務，因為他們有親密的了解他們公司的業務優勢。經理授予的會計自由裁量權可能是有價值的，因為它反映了財務報表中的內部信息。然而，由于投資者認為利潤作為衡量管理者的績效，管理者有動機利用他們的會計自由裁量權歪曲報道利潤的假設、偏見。另外，在公司內部和外部之間的合同中使用的會計數字提供了另一種管理操作的會計數字的動機。在來管理扭曲了財務會計資

6、料，使他們對前內部財務報表的使用者不值錢。因此，財務報告的決定，企業管理者的代表團有成本和收益。許多會計慣例已經形成，以確保管理者使用他們的會計靈活性來概括他們對公司經營活動的知識，而不是為了自我服務的目的而偽裝現實。例如，可測性和穩健性慣例和會計反應擔心扭曲人學生可能偏向樂觀。這兩個公約都試圖限制管理者對悲觀偏見的樂觀偏見。會計準則（公認會計原則），由財務會計標準委員會（FASB）發布和類似的標準設定在其他國家機構，也限制了潛在的扭曲，管理者可以將報告數字。統一會計準則的嘗試，以降低管理者的能力，以不同的方式記錄類似的經濟交易，無論是隨著時間的推移或跨公司。提高均勻性的會計準則，然而，是減少

7、管理者反映他們公司的財務報表差異真正的業務靈活性。嚴格的會計準則對經濟交易的最佳效果，其會計處理不依賴于管理者的專有信息。然而，當有重大的商業判斷參與評估交易的經濟后果，嚴格的標準，防止經理利用自己的業務知識上會不正常。此外，如果會計準則過于僵化，他們可能會促使管理者花費經濟資源來調整業務交易，以達到預期的會計結果。審計，廣義地定義為一個對上報的財務報表的人比其他人的完整性驗證，確保管理人員利用會計規則和慣例一致，隨著時間的推移，和他們的會計估計是合理的。因此，審計提高會計數據的質量。第三方審計也可能會降低財務報告的質量，因為它限制了會計規則和慣例的發展隨著時間的推移。FASB認為審計意見在標

8、準制定過程中，核數師很可能會反對會計準則的生產數據，這是很難進行審計的，即使擬議的規則為投資者提供相關信息。其中會計糾紛經理、審計師的法律環境，投資者也可以在裁決報告數據質量有顯著的影響。訴訟的威脅和懲罰的有益效果，證明了信息披露的準確性。然而，一個重要的法律責任的潛力還有可能阻礙管理人員和審計人員從支持會計建議重新進行風險預測，如前瞻性信息披露。2.3會計制度特點3：管理者的報告策略由于限制管理者對會計數據失真的能力增加的機制，并不是最優的利用會計規則來完全消除管理上的靈活性。因此，現實世界的會計系統給管理者留下相當大的空間來影響財務報表數據。一個公司的報告策略，即管理者使用他們的會計判斷的

9、方式，對公司的財務報表有重要影響。企業管理者可以選擇的會計和披露政策，使其更或不難的外部用戶的財務報告，了解他們的業務的真實經濟情況。會計規則往往提供了一套廣泛的替代品，管理者可以選擇。此外，管理者委托制定一系列的估計，在實施這些會計政策。會計法規通常規定最低披露要求，但他們不限制經理提供額外的披露。一個卓越的披露策略將使管理者能夠將潛在的商業現實與外部投資者溝通。企業披露戰略的一個重要約束是產品市場的競爭態勢。專有信息的披露有關業務策略信息和預期的經濟后果可能會傷害公司的競爭地位。受此約束，管理者可以利用財務報表提供的評估公司的真正的生態經濟業績對投資者有用的信息。管理者也可以利用財務報告策

10、略操縱投資者的感知。使用自由裁量權授予他們，管理者可以使投資者難以及時識別性能差。例如，管理者可以選擇交流計數的政策和估計，以提供一個樂觀的評估公司的真實表現。他們也可以讓投資者了解真實的性能，通過控制信息自愿披露程度，性能高。在這種程度上的財務報表信息對潛在的商業性現實隨公司在某公司的時間。這種變化在交流計數的質量提供了一個重要的機會和挑戰。3.從財務報表的業務分析 由于管理者的內部知識是會計數據的價值和失真的來源，因此財務報表的外部使用者很難區分真實的信息和失真。無法撤消會計失真，投資者可能“折扣”一個公司的會計業績。在這樣做時，他們做了一個概率評估的程度，一個公司的報告數字反映經濟現實。

11、因此，投資者只能對單個企業的績效進行不精確的評估。金融信息中介可以添加通過改善投資因素的理解公司的目前的業績和未來前景價值。有效的財務報表分析是有價值的，因為它試圖在管理者的內部信息，從公共財務報表數據。因為中介機構沒有直接或完全訪問這些信息，他們依靠他們的知識，該公司的行業及其競爭策略，以解釋財務報表。成功的中介機構至少有一個很好的理解，對行業經濟的公司的經理，并合理地了解公司的競爭戰略。盡管外界分析人士與公司的相關管理者的信息劣勢，他們更能客觀評價其經濟后果公司的投資管理和經營決策。我們需要利用財務報表來完成四個關鍵步驟：（1）企業戰略分析、（2）會計分析、（3）財務分析和（4）前景分析。

12、3.1分析步驟一：戰略分析企業戰略分析的目的是確定關鍵利潤驅動程序和業務風險，并在一個定性的水平評估公司的利潤潛力。業務戰略分析涉及到一個公司的行業分析和建立一個可持續的競爭優勢的戰略。這種定性分析是一個重要的第一步，因為它使分析師能夠更好地對以后的會計和財務分析框架進行分析?？荚嚭唵危R別關鍵成功因素和關鍵業務風險的關鍵會計政策允許的識別。評價一個企業的競爭戰略有利于評價評估是否當前的盈利能力是可持續的。最后，業務分析使分析師能夠做出合理的假設，在預測公司的未來表現。3.2分析步驟二：會計分析會計分析的目的是評估一個公司的會計捕捉到的基本業務的真實程度。通過確定有帳戶的靈活性，并通過評估公司

13、的會計政策的恰當性和估計，分析師可以評估在一個公司的會計數字失真的程度。在財務分析中的另一個重要的步驟是“撤銷”任何會計系統通過重鑄公司會計數據創建公正的會計數據。健全的會計分析，提高了結論的可靠性從財務分析系統，為下一步的財務報表分析。3.3分析步驟三：財務分析財務分析的目的是利用財務數據來評估一個公司的當前和過去的財務狀況和評估其可持續性。與財務分析相關的重要技能。首先，分析應是系統和有效的。其次，分析應允許分析師使用財務數據，探討業務問題。比率分析和現金流分析是最常用的金融工具。比率分析的重點是企業的產品市場表現和財務政策的評價；現金流量分析公司的變現能力和財務彈性。3.4分析步驟四：前

14、景分析前景分析，專注于預測公司的未來，是業務分析的最后一步。前瞻性分析中常用的技術是財務報表預測和估值。這些工具允許從業務分析，研究會計分析和財務分析的合成，從而在前期分析出關于公司的未來。雖然公司的價值是其未來現金流性能的功能，它也有可能評估公司的價值基礎上的公司目前的賬面價值的股票，其未來的回報率（凈資產收益率）和增長。戰略分析、會計分析和財務分析，在這里討論的框架的前三個步驟，提供一個公司的內在價值估算前良好的基礎。戰略分析，除了有利的會計和財務分析，也有助于評估潛在的變化，企業的競爭優勢和他們對公司未來的凈資產收益率和增長的影響。會計分析提供了一個公司的現行賬面價值和凈資產收益率的無偏

15、估計。財務分析讓你獲得了一個深入了解什么推動了公司目前的資產收益率。從一個健全的業務分析的預測是有用的各種當事人，可以應用在不同的環境中。分析的確切性質將取決于上下文。我們將探討包括證券分析、信用評估的情況下，兼并和收購，債務和股利政策評估，評估公司率通信策略。上面描述的四個分析步驟是有用的，在每一個這些上下文中。然而，適當地使用這些工具，需要熟悉的經濟理論和體制因素相關的背景。4.總結 財務報表提供的公共企業生態經濟活動的最廣泛使用的數據；投資者和其他利益相關者依靠他們來評估計劃與企業和企業管理者績效。在財務報表中的權責發生制會計數據是嘈雜的，和沒有經驗的投資者可以評估企業績效不僅是準確的。

16、財務分析師誰理解管理者的披露策略有機會從公開數據中創建內部信息，他們發揮了寶貴的作用，使外部各方評估公司的當前和未來的表現。本章概述了對財務狀況及經營分析的框架，使用的四個關鍵步驟：企業戰略分析、會計分析、財務分析和前景分析。本書中的其余章節詳細描述了這些步驟，并討論了它們如何在各種業務環境中使用。附：Business Analysis and Valuation KG Palepu，PM Healy From the literature of the first chapter of the Fifth Edition “Business Analysis and Valuation” 一

17、、中小企業在我國經濟發展中的重要地位和作用中小企業在我國社會經濟發展中始終具有十分重要的地位和作用。1. IntroductionThe purpose of this chapter is to outline a comprehensive framework for financial statement analysis. Because financial statements provide the most widely available data on public corporations economic activities, investors and other s

18、take- holders rely on financial reports to assess the plans and performance of firms and corpo- rate managers.A variety of questions can be addressed by business analysis using financial state- ments, as shown in the following examples:A security analyst may be interested in asking: “How well is the

19、 firm I am follow- ing performing? Did the firm meet my performance expectations? If not, why not? What is the value of the firms stock given my assessment of the firms current and future performance?”A loan officer may need to ask: “What is the credit risk involved in lending a certain amount of mo

20、ney to this firm? How well is the firm managing its liquidity and sol- vency? What is the firms business risk? What is the additional risk created by the firms financing and dividend policies?”A management consultant might ask: “What is the structure of the industry in which the firm is operating? W

21、hat are the strategies pursued by various players in the in- dustry? What is the relative performance of different firms in the industry?”A corporate manager may ask: “Is my firm properly valued by investors? Is our in- vestor communication program adequate to facilitate this process?”Financial stat

22、ement analysis is a valuable activity when managers have complete in- formation on a firms strategies and a variety of institutional factors make it unlikely that they fully disclose this information. In this setting, outside analysts attempt to create “in- side information” from analyzing financial

23、 statement data, thereby gaining valuable in- sights about the firms current performance and future prospects.To understand the contribution that financial statement analysis can make, it is im- portant to understand the role of financial reporting in the functioning of capital markets and the insti

24、tutional forces that shape financial statements. Therefore, we present first a brief description of these forces; then we discuss the steps that an analyst must perform to extract information from financial statements and provide valuable forecasts.2.From business activities to financial statementsC

25、orporate managers are responsible for acquiring physical and financial resources from the firms environment and using them to create value for the firms investors. Value is created when the firm earns a return on its investment in excess of the cost of capital. Managers formulate business strategies

26、 to achieve this goal, and they implement them through business activities. A firms business activities are influenced by its economic environment and its own business strategy. The economic environment includes the firms industry, its input and output markets, and the regulations under which the fi

27、rm operates. The firms business strategy determines how the firm positions itself in its en- vironment to achieve a competitive advantage.2.1 Accounting System Feature 1: Accrual AccountingOne of the fundamental features of corporate financial reports is that they are prepared using accrual rather t

28、han cash accounting. Unlike cash accounting, accrual accounting distinguishes between the recording of costs and benefits associated with economic ac- tivities and the actual payment and receipt of cash. Net income is the primary periodic performance index under accrual accounting. To compute net in

29、come, the effects of eco- nomic transactions are recorded on the basis of expected, not necessarily actual, cash re- ceipts and payments. Expected cash receipts from the delivery of products or services are recognized as revenues, and expected cash outflows associated with these revenues are recogni

30、zed as expenses.The need for accrual accounting arises from investors demand for financial reports on a periodic basis. Because firms undertake economic transactions on a continual basis, the arbitrary closing of accounting books at the end of a reporting period leads to a fun- damental measurement

31、problem. Since cash accounting does not report the full eco- nomic consequence of the transactions undertaken in a given period, accrual accounting is designed to provide more complete information on a firms periodic performance.2.2 Accounting System Feature 2: Accounting Standards and AuditingThe u

32、se of accrual accounting lies at the center of many important complexities in cor- porate financial reporting. Because accrual accounting deals with expectations of future cash consequences of current events, it is subjective and relies on a variety of assump- tions. Who should be charged with the p

33、rimary responsibility of making these assump- tions? A firms managers are entrusted with the task of making the appropriate estimates and assumptions to prepare the financial statements because they have intimate knowl- edge of their firms business.The accounting discretion granted to managers is po

34、tentially valuable because it al- lows them to reflect inside information in reported financial statements. However, since investors view profits as a measure of managers performance, managers have incentives to use their accounting discretion to distort reported profits by making biased assump- tio

35、ns. Further, the use of accounting numbers in contracts between the firm and outsiders provides another motivation for management manipulation of accounting numbers. In- come management distorts financial accounting data, making them less valuable to ex- ternal users of financial statements. Therefo

36、re, the delegation of financial reporting decisions to corporate managers has both costs and benefits.A number of accounting conventions have evolved to ensure that managers use their accounting flexibility to summarize their knowledge of the firms business activities, and not to disguise reality fo

37、r self-serving purposes. For example, the measurability and con- servatism conventions are accounting responses to concerns about distortions from man- agers potentially optimistic bias. Both these conventions attempt to limit managers optimistic bias by imposing their own pessimistic bias.Accountin

38、g standards (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), promulgated by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and similar standard-setting bodies in other countries, also limit potential distortions that managers can introduce into reported numbers. Uniform accounting standards attempt to r

39、educe managers ability to record similar economic transactions in dissimilar ways, either over time or across firms.Increased uniformity from accounting standards, however, comes at the expense of reduced flexibility for managers to reflect genuine business differences in their firms fi- nancial sta

40、tements. Rigid accounting standards work best for economic transactions whose accounting treatment is not predicated on managers proprietary information. However, when there is significant business judgment involved in assessing a transac- tions economic consequences, rigid standards which prevent m

41、anagers from using their superior business knowledge would be dysfunctional. Further, if accounting standards are too rigid, they may induce managers to expend economic resources to restructure business transactions to achieve a desired accounting result.Auditing, broadly defined as a verification o

42、f the integrity of the reported financial statements by someone other than the preparer, ensures that managers use accounting rules and conventions consistently over time, and that their accounting estimates are rea- sonable. Therefore, auditing improves the quality of accounting data.Third-party au

43、diting may also reduce the quality of financial reporting because it constrains the kind of accounting rules and conventions that evolve over time. For ex- ample, the FASB considers the views of auditors in the standard-setting process. Auditors are likely to argue against accounting standards produ

44、cing numbers that are difficult to audit, even if the proposed rules produce relevant information for investors.The legal environment in which accounting disputes between managers, auditors, and investors are adjudicated can also have a significant effect on the quality of reported numbers. The thre

45、at of lawsuits and resulting penalties have the beneficial effect of im- proving the accuracy of disclosure. However, the potential for a significant legal liability might also discourage managers and auditors from supporting accounting proposals re- quiring risky forecasts, such as forward-looking

46、disclosures.2.3 Accounting System Feature 3: Managers Reporting StrategyBecause the mechanisms that limit managers ability to distort accounting data add noise, it is not optimal to use accounting regulation to eliminate managerial flexibility completely. Therefore, real-world accounting systems lea

47、ve considerable room for managers to influence financial statement data. A firms reporting strategy, that is, the manner in which managers use their accounting discretion, has an important influence on the firms financial statements.Corporate managers can choose accounting and disclosure policies th

48、at make it more or less difficult for external users of financial reports to understand the true economic picture of their businesses. Accounting rules often provide a broad set of alternatives from which managers can choose. Further, managers are entrusted with making a range of estimates in implem

49、enting these accounting policies. Accounting regulations usually prescribe minimum disclosure requirements, but they do not restrict managers from vol- untarily providing additional disclosures.A superior disclosure strategy will enable managers to communicate the underlying business reality to outs

50、ide investors. One important constraint on a firms disclosure strategy is the competitive dynamics in product markets. Disclosure of proprietary infor- mation about business strategies and their expected economic consequences may hurt the firms competitive position. Subject to this constraint, manag

51、ers can use financial statements to provide information useful to investors in assessing their firms true eco- nomic performance.Managers can also use financial reporting strategies to manipulate investors percep- tions. Using the discretion granted to them, managers can make it difficult for invest

52、ors to identify poor performance on a timely basis. For example, managers can choose ac- counting policies and estimates to provide an optimistic assessment of the firms true performance. They can also make it costly for investors to understand the true perfor- mance by controlling the extent of inf

53、ormation that is disclosed voluntarily.The extent to which financial statements are informative about the underlying busi- ness reality varies across firmsand across time for a given firm. This variation in ac- counting quality provides both an important opportunity and a challenge in doing business

54、 analysis. The process through which analysts can separate noise from informa- tion in financial statements, and gain valuable business insights from financial statement analysis, is discussed next.3. From financial statements to bussiness analysisBecause managers insider knowledge is a source both

55、of value and distortion in account- ing data, it is difficult for outside users of financial statements to separate true information from distortion and noise. Not being able to undo accounting distortions completely, in- vestors “discount” a firms reported accounting performance. In doing so, they

56、make a probabilistic assessment of the extent to which a firms reported numbers reflect economic reality. As a result, investors can have only an imprecise assessment of an individual firms performance. Financial and information intermediaries can add value by improving inves- tors understanding of

57、a firms current performance and its future prospects.Effective financial statement analysis is valuable because it attempts to get at managers inside information from public financial statement data. Because intermediaries do not have direct or complete access to this information, they rely on their

58、 knowledge of the firms industry and its competitive strategies to interpret financial statements. Successful intermediaries have at least as good an understanding of the industry economics as do the firms managers, and a reasonably good understanding of the firms competitive strategy. Although outs

59、ide analysts have an information disadvantage relative to the firms manag- ers, they are more objective in evaluating the economic consequences of the firms invest- ment and operating decisions. Figure 1-3 provides a schematic overview of how business intermediaries use financial statements to accomplish four key steps: (1) business