1、序號營業(yè)額Y124222353232417851846140714581529110101301115212206132631423815247161931719318149191572016121122221302316724230252812625527265282052921030160311663217433126341483517336235近三年月營業(yè)額時間序列圖1357911131517192123252729313335050100150200250300近三年月營業(yè)額時間序列圖1357911131517192123252729313335050100150200250300客

2、客樂樂飯飯店店近近三三年年各各月月飲飲料料的的營營業(yè)業(yè)額額季季節(jié)節(jié)變變動動表表月份近3年近2年近1年三年合計月平均季節(jié)比率% 季節(jié)變差1242263281786262.00139.6574.392235238255728242.67129.3555.063232247265744248.00132.1960.394178193205576192.00102.344.395184193210587195.67104.298.066140149160449149.6779.77-37.947145157166468156.0083.15-31.618152161174487162.3386.53-

3、25.289110122126358119.3363.61-68.2810130130148408136.0072.49-51.6111152167173492164.0087.41-23.6112206230235671223.67119.2236.06合計21062250239867542251.331200.00平均175.50187.50199.83562.83187.61100（4）（5）15.93月份消除季節(jié)變動后的近1年數(shù)據(jù)1201.222197.153200.474200.315201.356200.567199.648201.099198.0910204.1711197.91

4、12197.12標準差2.0678295.00/139.65%=211.2415224.135636.2034平均值199.92206.13來年營業(yè)額預(yù)測季節(jié)比率預(yù)測季節(jié)變差預(yù)測279.07274.22258.48254.89264.16260.22204.51204.22208.41207.89159.42161.89166.16168.22172.91174.56127.11131.56144.86148.22174.68176.22238.24235.89近三年的飲料的營業(yè)額逐步增加.有必要剔除長期趨勢后，再來分析季節(jié)變動情況。移移動動平平均均趨趨勢勢剔剔除除法法客客樂樂飯飯店店飲飲料料

5、營營業(yè)業(yè)額額的的季季節(jié)節(jié)變變動動測測定定年 月月飲料營業(yè)額（千元）移動平均數(shù)季節(jié)比率季節(jié)比率的平均數(shù)近3年 1242223532324178518461407145176.375000.82211282.81%8152177.375000.85694285.28%9110178.125000.61754462.79%10130179.375000.72473970.02%11152180.375000.84268985.26%12206181.125001.137336115.90%近2年 1263182.000001.445055144.07%2238182.875001.301435129

6、.94%3247183.750001.344218134.38%4193184.250001.047490104.10%5193184.875001.043949104.92%6149186.500000.79892880.02%7157188.250000.83399711.9949288161189.708330.8486719122191.166670.63818710130192.416670.67561711167193.625000.86249212230194.791671.180749近1年 1281195.625001.4364222255196.541671.2974353

7、265197.250001.3434734205198.166671.0344835210199.166671.0543936160199.625000.801503716681749126101481117312235兩種計算季節(jié)指數(shù)方法比較：以上計算結(jié)果重新排列月份趨勢剔除法季節(jié)指數(shù)按月平均法季節(jié)指數(shù)月份ty(2)()ttMT=t ttty SIT =jSjS =1144.13%139.65%12130.00%129.35%23134.44%132.19%34104.14%102.34%45104.96%104.29%5680.06%79.77%6782.84%83.15%7885.32%

8、86.53%8962.81%63.61%91070.05%72.49%101185.30%87.41%1112115.95%119.22%12季節(jié)指數(shù)調(diào)整系數(shù)1.00042382.84%85.32%62.81%70.05%85.30%115.95%144.13%130.00%134.44%104.14%104.96%80.06%12.000000趨勢剔除法季節(jié)指數(shù)來年營業(yè)額預(yù)測212* jS12jS * jS =移移動動平平均均趨趨勢勢剔剔除除法法客客樂樂飯飯店店飲飲料料營營業(yè)業(yè)額額的的季季節(jié)節(jié)變變動動測測定定144.13%305.5656784305.57130.00%275.5967276

9、275.6134.44%285.015652285.02104.14%220.7824103220.78104.96%222.5182938222.5280.06%169.717359169.7282.84%175.6218169175.6285.32%180.8713954180.8762.81%133.1637093133.1670.05%148.5004833148.585.30%180.8255903180.83115.95%245.8208837245.82年份國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(億元)20009921520011096552002121717.420031374222004161840.

10、22005187318.92006219438.52007270232.32008319515.52009349081.42010413030.32011489300.62012540367.42013595244.420146439742015685505.8年底人口數(shù)人均國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值職工平均工資*(萬人)(元/人)(元)1267437858937112762786221087012845393981242212922710666140401288401299881248716024129608130756143681836413037213144816738210011311021321292050524932131789132802241212922913246613345026222327361331261340913087637147133771134735364034245213441313540440007475931350701360724385252388135738136782472035736113642713