1、中文3415字本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目： impact of foreign direct investment and trade on economic growth:evidence from developing countries 出 處： american journal of agricultural economics, vol. 86 issue 3 作 者： makki, shiva s.,somwaru, agapi 原 文：impact of foreign direct investment andtrade on economic growth: evidenc

2、efrom developing countriesforeign direct investment (fdi) and trade are often seen as important catalysts for economic growth in the developing countries. fdi is an important vehicle of technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. fdi also stimulates domestic investment and

3、facilitates improvements in human capital and institutions in the host countries. international trade is also known to be an instrument of economic growth (romer). trade facilitates more efficient production of goods and services by shifting production to countries that have comparative advantage in

4、 producing them. even though past studies show that fdi and trade have a positive impact on economic growth, the size of such impact may vary across countries depending on the level of human capital, domestic investment, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, and trade policies. the literature con

5、tinues to debate the role of fdi and trade in economic growth as well as the importance of economic and institutional developments in fostering fdi and trade.this article analyzes the role of fdi and trade in promoting economic growth across selected developing countries and the interaction among fd

6、i, trade, and economic growth. we examine data from sixty-six developing countries over the last three decades. our results suggest that fdi, trade, human capital, and domestic investment are important sources of economic growth for developing countries. we find a strong positive interaction between

7、 fdi and trade in advancing economic growth. our results also show that fdi stimulates domestic investment. the contribution of fdi to economic growth is enhanced by its positive interaction with human capital and sound macroeconomic policies.methodology and data our econometric model is derived fro

8、m a production function in which the level of a countrys productivity depends on fdi, trade, domestic investment, human capital, and initial gross domestic product (gdp) per capita. the model is based on endogenous growth theory, in the tradition of balasubramanyam, salisu, and sapsford and borenszt

9、ein, gregorio, and lee, where fdi contributes to economic growth directly through new technologies and other inputs as well as indirectly through improving human capital, infrastructure, and institutions. to assess empirically the effects of fdi and trade on economic growth, we specify the following

10、 basic formulation:g=a+b1fdi+b2trd+b3hc+b4k+b5g0 +c1fditrd+c2fdihc+c3fdik （1） +d1tri+d2tx+d3gc+ewhere g is the per capita gdp growth rate; trd, the trade (exports plus imports) of goods and services; hc, the stock of human capital; k, the domestic capital investment; g0, the initial gdp(initial stoc

11、k); irt, the inflation rate; tx, the tax on income, profits, and capital gains in the host country expressed as percentage of current revenue; and gc is government consumption. the variables fdi, trd, k, gc are measured as ratios to gdp. we also account for interaction of fdi with trade and domestic

12、 investment, in addition to human capital. past empirical studies have indicated that fdi, trade, human capital, and domestic investment have a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. we expect the estimated coefficients for these variables to be positive. we also expect positive

13、 interactions between fdi and trade and fdi and domestic capital investment in promoting economic growth. the stock of human capital in a host country is critical for absorbing foreign knowledge and an important determinant of whether potential spillovers will be realized. we postulate not only a po

14、sitive relationship between fdi and the gdp growth rate but also a positive interaction between fdi and human capital in advancing economic growth. the application of advanced technologies embodied in fdi requires a sufficient level of human capital. that is, the higher the level of human capital in

15、 a host country, the higher the effect of fdi on the countrys economic growth. one of the key questions regarding fdi and economic growth is: “what is the interaction between fdi and domestic investment”? as argued before, fdi is an important vehicle for the transfer of capital, technology, and know

16、ledge to host countries, thereby generating high-growth opportunities. in practice, however, the growth-enhancing impact of fdi depends critically on the absorptive capacity of a host country and whether fdi “crowds out” its domestic investment. thus, an important question to be addressed is: “what

17、is the extent to which fdi substitutes for or complements domestic investment”? in our empirical model, we include fdi and domestic investment separately as well as an interaction term between fdi and domestic investment (fdik). a positive coefficient for the interaction term would suggest that fdi

18、and domestic investment (k) reinforce (complement) each other in advancing economic growth. the initial gdp, measured in terms of constant u.s. dollars, controls for preexisting economic and institutional conditions in the host economy. we expect the initial gdp (expressed in logarithms) to be negat

19、ively related with gdp growth rates. the inflation rate is a key indicator of fiscal and monetary policies of a country. a lower inflation rate should mean a better climate for investment, trade, and, therefore, economic growth. government consumption and tax on income, profits, and capital gains ar

20、e proxies for institutions and infrastructure in the host countries. since our objective is to quantify the effects of fdi and trade on economic growth, we focus on developing countries. data for our analysis are obtained from the world development indicators (wdi) database. however, we limit our an

21、alysis to 1971 through 2000 because the flow of fdi to most developing countries began in 1970s. all variables represent the average over the following decades: 19711980, 19811990, and 19912000.we estimate a system of three equations, where the dependent variables are the mean values of per capita g

22、dp growth rates in each decade. we estimate the system of equations using the seemingly unrelated regression (sur) method as well as instrumental variable (three-stage least squares, tsls) approach. the sur estimation allows for different error variances in each equation and for correlation of these

23、 errors across equations, while the instrumental variable technique allows us to overcome potential biases induced by endogeneity problems between fdi and economic growth.empirical results the purpose of our empirical investigation is to analyze the effects of fdi and trade on economic growth and to

24、 examine how fdi interacts with trade, human capital, and domestic investment in advancing economic growth in developing countries. we control for preexisting economic conditions by including initial gdp as one of the explanatory variables. we also account for differences in macroeconomic policies i

25、n the host countries by including variables, such as inflation rate, tax burden, and government consumption.table 1 presents the econometric results. regressions 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3, different variants of equation (1) above are estimated using the sur method. regression 1.1 is our basic specification

26、with explanatory variables of fdi, trade, human capital, domestic investment, and initial gdp. regression 1.2 extends 1.1 to include interaction of fdi with trade, human capital, and domestic investment. regression 1.3 builds on regression 1.2 by controlling for inflation rate, tax burden, and gover

27、nment consumption. our results show that most coefficients have the expected signs, particularly in specification 1.3. the estimated r2 are generally low but reasonable given the cross sectional nature of the data used.regression 1.1 reveals that fdi and trade have a positive impact on economic grow

28、th after controlling for human capital, domestic investment, and initial income. the estimated coefficient for fdi is positive and statistically significant while the estimated coefficient for trade is not statistically significant. since the coefficient of fdi is larger than the coefficient of trad

29、e, it indicates the differential impact of fdi in the host countrys economic growth. the coefficient for human capital is positive, implying that human capital contributes positively to economic growth (significant only at a confidence level of 88%). the coefficients for domestic investment and init

30、ial income are not statistically significant. including interactions between fdi and trade, fdi and human capital, and fdi and domestic investment not only improves the overall performance of the estimation but also allows us to capture their interaction effects on economic growth.in regression 1.2,

31、 the interaction of fdi and trade yields a positive and statistically significant coefficient while the effects of fdi and trade, by themselves, are positive but not statistically significant. regression 1.2 also reveals that the fdi interacts positively with domestic investment in advancing economi

32、c growth. the estimated coefficient for domestic investment is positive and statistically significant at a confidence level of 90%. the estimated coefficients indicate that host countries benefit positively both from fdi, itself, and through fdis positive interaction with trade and domestic investme

33、nt. the interaction between fdi and human capital, although positive, is not statistically significant. regression 1.3 includes additional variables to control for macroeconomic policies and institutional stability that could have a significant impact on fdi and trade and, thus, on economic growth.

34、recent literature indicates that fdi is greatly influenced by host country policies, such as monetary, fiscal, and open market policies. we include inflation rates, tax income, and government consumption. the results of regression 1.3 reveal that fdi and trade contribute positively to economic growt

35、h, but the estimated coefficients are not statistically significant. the stock of human capital and domestic investment, on the other hand, has positive and statistically significant coefficients. the results also indicate that fdi positively interacts with trade, human capital, and domestic investm

36、ent. but only fditrade interaction is statistically significant. this implies that fdi and trade complement each other in advancing growth rate of income in developing countries. this result is consistent with the idea that flow of advanced technology brought along by fdi can increase the growth rat

37、e of the host economy by interacting with that countrys trade.the diverse experiences from developing countries suggest that fdi and trade, by themselves, may not guarantee economic growth. a countrys economic growth is also affected by its macroeconomic policies and institutional stability. sound m

38、acroeconomic policies and institutional stability are necessary preconditions for fdi-driven growth to materialize. the estimated coefficients for the three policy variablesinflation rate, government consumption, and tax on income, profits, and capital gainsare negative and statistically significant

39、. this implies that lowering the inflation rate, tax burden, and government consumption would promote economic growth. lower inflation rates would indicate that the host countrys macroeconomic policies are stable and disciplined. lower tax burden would make the investments, foreign and domestic, mor

40、e profitable. decreasing the government consumption would leave more money for investments.fdi “crowds-in” domestic investment one of the important questions raised in the literature is whether fdi augments a host countrys capital investment or crowds out domestic investment. even though not statist

41、ically significant, the positive interaction between fdi and domestic investment in regression 1.3 implies that domestic investment is unlikely to be crowded out in developing countries. to further strengthen our argument, we estimate the contribution of fdi to domestic investment after controlling

42、for trade, human capital, initial income levels, and various macroeconomic policy variables. regression 1.4 in table 1 presents the results of this estimation using the sur method. the results indicate fdi has a positive effect on domestic investment, as the estimated coefficient is positive and sta

43、tistically significant. this positive relationship implies that fdi stimulates or crowds-in domestic investment. this finding is consistent with borensztein, gregorio, and lee. even though trade, by itself, is not statistically significant, trade interacts positively with fdi on domestic investment.

44、 the estimated coefficient for the fditrade interaction term is positive and significant at the 90% confidence level.endogeneity problemsthe correlation between fdi and growth rate could arise from an endogenous determination of fdi. that is, fdi, itself, may be influenced by innovations in the stoc

45、hastic process governing growth rates (borensztein, gregorio, and lee). for example, market reforms in host countries could increase both gdp growth rates and the inflow of fdi simultaneously. in this case, the presence of correlation between fdi and the country-specific error term would bias the es

46、timated coefficients. the endogeneity problem is addressed by using the instrumental variables. one of the major problems with the instrumental variable estimation method is the difficulty in identifying instruments that are highly correlated with fdi (or trade) but not with the error term. we use l

47、agged values of fdi, lagged values of trade, and log value of total gdp as instruments in a tsls method. the results of the tsls model (reported in table 2, regressions 2.12.3) show that the instrumental variable estimation yields qualitatively similar results as those obtained by the sur method. th

48、e estimated coefficients on fdi and trade, by themselves, are positive but statistically insignificant. the interactive term of fdi and trade is positive and statistically significant. this alternative estimation also suggests that our results are robust.本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目： impact of foreign direct inve

49、stment and trade on economic growth:evidence from developing countries 出 處： american journal of agricultural economics, vol. 86 issue 3 作 者： makki, shiva s.,somwaru, agapi 譯 文：fdi和貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響：來自發(fā)展中國家的實(shí)證分析引言在發(fā)展中國家fdi和貿(mào)易常常被看作刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要因素。fdi是技術(shù)從發(fā)達(dá)國家傳遞到發(fā)展中國家的載體。fdi還可以刺激東道國的國內(nèi)投資，提高人力資本和制度的便利。國際貿(mào)易也一直是促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增

50、長的工具（羅默）。貿(mào)易使得具有比較優(yōu)勢的國家生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)更便利的在國家間流通。盡管過去的研究證明fdi和對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有積極正相關(guān)的影響，但是這種影響的大小從國家整體來說取決于人力資本的水平、國內(nèi)投資、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定性和貿(mào)易政策。本文主要延續(xù)之前的討論：關(guān)于fdi和貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用，經(jīng)濟(jì)和制度的發(fā)展在刺激fdi與貿(mào)易上的重要性。本文分析了fdi和貿(mào)易在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中扮演的角色，通過選擇66個(gè)發(fā)展中國家在最近三十年的數(shù)據(jù)分析fdi、貿(mào)易、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系。實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明fdi、貿(mào)易、人力資本、國內(nèi)投資是發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要因素。結(jié)果還表明在推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方面fdi與投資之間

51、存在積極正相關(guān)。同樣，fdi刺激國內(nèi)投資，但是fdi對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)可以由通fdi存在正相關(guān)性的人力資本、穩(wěn)定的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策來提高。2、 研究方法和數(shù)據(jù)本文采用的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型來源于生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，一個(gè)國家的生產(chǎn)力水平取決于fdi、貿(mào)易、國內(nèi)投資、人力資本、最初的人均gdp。這個(gè)模型建立在內(nèi)生增長理論上，在傳統(tǒng)上balasubramanyam, salisu, and sapsford and borensztein, gregorio, and lee 的觀點(diǎn)，fdi對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響直接通過新技術(shù)和其他要素投入或者通過人力資本、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、制度的提高。為了實(shí)證分析fdi和貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用，本文建立如下

52、的方程：g=a+b1fdi+b2trd+b3hc+b4k+b5g0 +c1fditrd+c2fdihc+c3fdik （1） +d1tri+d2tx+d3gc+eg代表人均gdp增長率；trd代表貨物和服務(wù)的貿(mào)易（出口和進(jìn)口）；hc表示人力資本存貨；k表示國內(nèi)資本投資；g0表示初期gdp；irt表示通貨膨脹率；tx是以當(dāng)前收入的百分?jǐn)?shù)，表示東道國的稅收收入、利潤、資本收益。gc表示政府消費(fèi)。變量fdi、trd、k、gc以比率表示gdp。本文還說明了fdi對(duì)貿(mào)易、國內(nèi)投資、人力資本的關(guān)系。以前的實(shí)證分析證明國內(nèi)投資對(duì)發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有積極影響。我們預(yù)測這些變量的估計(jì)系數(shù)是正數(shù)，同樣預(yù)測fdi

53、和貿(mào)易、fdi和國內(nèi)投資在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方面有積極正相關(guān)作用。東道國的人力資本存量對(duì)吸收國外知識(shí)和實(shí)現(xiàn)潛在的fdi技術(shù)外溢至關(guān)重要。我們假定不僅fdi和gdp增長率存在積極正相關(guān)，而且在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方面fdi和人力資本存在正互相關(guān)系。由fdi帶來的先進(jìn)技術(shù)的運(yùn)用需要足夠的人力資本，即東道國的人力資本水平越高，fdi對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長帶來的效應(yīng)越高。關(guān)于fdi和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系有一個(gè)重要問題：fdi和國內(nèi)投資存在什么關(guān)系？一直以來，fdi被作為資本、技術(shù)、知識(shí)轉(zhuǎn)移到東道國的重要載體，因此帶來刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長的機(jī)會(huì)。然而，實(shí)際上，fdi刺激增長的作用取決于東道國吸收資本的能力，還存在fdi是否“擠出”國內(nèi)

54、投資的問題。因此，這個(gè)問題變成了：fdi在多大程度上替代或補(bǔ)充國內(nèi)投資？在本文的實(shí)證模型中將fdi和國內(nèi)投資分開，又將fdi和國內(nèi)投資作為術(shù)語交匯（fdik）來研究。fdik的相關(guān)系數(shù)是正的話說明fdi和國內(nèi)投資在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時(shí)相互補(bǔ)充或加強(qiáng)。為控制東道國的現(xiàn)存的經(jīng)濟(jì)和制度條件以不變價(jià)格計(jì)量的初期gdp。我們預(yù)期以對(duì)數(shù)形式表示的初期gdp對(duì)gdp增長率表現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)。通貨膨脹率是一個(gè)國家財(cái)政和貨幣政策的重要指標(biāo)。低的通貨膨脹率意味著好的投資、貿(mào)易環(huán)境，因此有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。政府消費(fèi)和收入、利潤、資本收益的稅收代表東道國的制度和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。因?yàn)槲覀兊哪康氖橇炕痜di和貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的效應(yīng)，本文集中研究發(fā)

55、展中國家。本文的數(shù)據(jù)來源于世界發(fā)展指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)庫（wdi）。本文之所以選擇66個(gè)發(fā)展中國家1971年到2000的數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)因?yàn)榇蟛糠职l(fā)展中國家的fdi流入始于1970s。所有的變量的數(shù)據(jù)都是以下三個(gè)階段：19711980, 19811990, 19912000。本文運(yùn)用三個(gè)等式組成的系統(tǒng)，因變量是每十年的人均gdp增長率。我們運(yùn)用無相關(guān)回歸（sur）及工具變量（三步最小二乘法）來估計(jì)等式系統(tǒng)模型。sur方法考慮到三個(gè)方程的不同誤差變量及誤差變量與等式的相關(guān)性，工具變量可以允許克服fdi和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的內(nèi)生性問題引起的潛在偏差。三、實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果本文的目的是實(shí)證分析fdi和貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的效應(yīng)，檢驗(yàn)發(fā)展中國家fdi如何通過貿(mào)易、人力資本、國內(nèi)投資在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中發(fā)揮作用。把初期gdp作為其中一個(gè)解釋變量控制現(xiàn)存經(jīng)濟(jì)條件。通過加入通貨膨脹率、稅收負(fù)擔(dān)、政府消費(fèi)三個(gè)變量考慮東道國不同宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。表1表示實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果，回歸1.1,1.2,1.3是等式（1）用sur方法估計(jì)的變形。回歸1.1是解釋變