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JefferiesUSA|LifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025USLife:BacktotheFuture;RevisingPTsandRe-RankingourStocksWerevisePTs/stockranking.In12/24,wemovedawayfromour2024focusonannuity-leveredstocksinfavorofamorediversifiedprofile.Atthetime,wewereconcernedaboutamarketcorrectionpost2023-24SPXgainsof~25%peryear.Whiletheenvironmentremainsfluid,weexpectlessvolatilityaheadvsApril2025.Thisview,coupledwithourReturnofRetailthesis,movesusbacktoafocusonannuitystocks.OurrevisedtoppicksareEQH,CRBGandLNC.Backtothepast:Formuchof2024,weprioritizedannuity-leveredstocks,consistentwithourReturnofRetail(RoR)thesis.TheRoRisourviewthatannuitiesistheareainUSLifewiththebiggestdisconnectbetweengrowthpotentialandvaluation.Thatsaid,aspartofour2025outlook,were-rankedourcoveragetoreflectgreaterdiversificationintermsofmacroexposure.Thismovewasmoreofanear-term,tacticalcallpost2yearsof~25%SPXgainsratherthanamoremeaningfulchangeinoursector/stockviews.Atthetime,wecreated3basketsofUSLifestockswithdifferingmarketsensitivities/betas.OnaYTDbasis,ourremaining2basketshaveoutperformedtheSPX.Backtothefuture:Whilethemacroenvironmentremainsfluid,ourbasecaseisthattheequitymarketwillbemorestablegoingforwardrelativetothevolatilitywesawinAprilaroundthe"TariffTantrum".Moreover,werecentlypublishedourReturnofRetail2.0note(seeHERE),whicharguedforcontinuedannuitygrowthondemandfromBabyBoomersand,eventually,GenerationX.Re-rankingourcoverage:Ourre-rankingreflectsareturntoourfocusonannuity-leveredcompanies,withEQH,CRBGandLNCnowourtoppicks.EQHremainsourFranchisePickonits:1)exposuretothefullUSRetirementvaluechain;2)historyofproductinnovation(e.g.,RILA/LPP)and3)strongtrackrecordonriskmanagementandcapital.WefeelCRBGwillsoonbetheonlyannuitycompanywithatop10positioninall4productareas(i.e.,FA,FIA,VAandRILA).WeviewBainCapital'sintentiontotakea~$0.8BstakeinLNCat$44p/sasproviding:1)growthcapitaland2)anendorsementofthequalityofLNC'scapitalandreserves.WhileweacknowledgethatleadingwithEQH,CRBGandLNCincreasesourmacrorisk,weexpectall3togenerate18%+growthinFCFp/sthrough2028vsasectoraverageof~11%.Revisingourpricetargets:Ourrevisionsreflectourupdated2026EPSestimatesandmodestupdatestoourrelative/SOTPP/Etargets.Onaverage,wesee17%upsideinthegroup,with32%upsideforBuy-ratedstocks.IdentifyingBubbleStocks:WedefineBubbleStocksasthosethatseemtobeonthevergeofrevisionstoconsensuspricetargetsand/orratings.Atpresent,we'dhighlight4suchopportunities.LNCisaconsensusnon-Buyyethasa20%ETRanda5%dividendyield,suggestingthepotentialforupgrades.ThestockhasperformedtheworstsinceLiberationDay,despitetheSPX'sfullrecovery.CRBGisaconsensusBuybutonlyhasa15%ETR,whichcouldforeshadowPTupgrades.PRUhaslimitedSellSidesupportbuthasa14%ETRwitha5%yield.Whilefurtherweaknesscouldsuggestupgradepotential,wefeelPRUneedstoprovideacatalyst(s).AlthoughanexitofIndividualLifecouldbea"shotinthearm"forPRU,therelatedprobabilityseemslow.Lastly,CNOhasa16%ETRbutisaconsensusHold,whichmayleadtoupgradesaheadifitsfundamentalsholdup.Bottomline:WestayconstructiveonUSLife,ourviewsince9/23(seeHERE).Wefeelannuitycompanieshavethemostupsideonthedisconnectbetweengrowthpotentialandvaluation.TICKERRATINGPRICETARGETTICKERRATINGPRICETARGETEQHBUY$70.00$41.00$48.00$284.00$110.00PRICETARGET$70.00($66.00)$41.00($37.00)$48.00($46.00)$110.00($107.00)SuneetKamath,CFA*|EquityAnalyst(212)778-8602|skamath@NathanSatterfield*|EquityAssociate+1(212)778-8954|nsatterfield@Pleaseseeanalystcertifications,importantdisclosureinformation,andinformationregardingthestatusofnon-USanalystsonpages58-66ofthisreport.*JefferiesLLC/JefferiesResearchServices,LLCJefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025SummaryofChangesEPSEstimatesP/ECompanyRatingRatingPrice^PriceTarget202420252026202420252026EquitableHoldings$53.61$70.00個+6%$5.94$6.30$7.959.0x8.5x6.7xPrevious$66.00$5.94$6.30$7.95$7.95CorebridgeFinancial$32.95$41.00個+11%$4.83$4.90$5.656.8x6.7x5.8xPrevious$37.00$4.83$4.90$5.65$5.65LincolnNational$33.23$48.00個+4%$7.07$7.20$7.554.7x4.6x4.4xPrevious$46.00$7.07$7.20$7.55$7.55ReinsuranceGroupAmericaofBUY$203.63$284.00$20.07$23.75$26.5010.1x8.6x7.7xUnum$82.14$110.00個+3%$8.44$9.15$10.109.7x9.0x8.1xPrevious$107.00$8.44$9.15$10.10$10.10MetLifeMET$79.32$100.00個+4%$8.14$8.80$9.909.7x9.0x8.0xPrevious$96.00$8.14$8.80$9.90$9.90AmeripriseAMP$513.24$605.00<1%$34.38$37.00$41.2014.9x13.9x12.5xPrevious$602.00$34.38$37.00$41.20$41.20PrudentialFinancialPRU$104.42$134.00個+4%$11.88$13.75$14.908.8x7.6x7.0xPrevious$129.00$11.88$13.75$14.90$14.90CNOFinancialPrevious$38.20$42.00$3.98$3.98$3.85$3.85$4.259.6x9.9x9.0x-2%$43.00$4.25$4.25JacksonFinancialJXN$84.43$80.00$18.77$19.00$20.204.5x4.4x4.2xPrimericaPRI$272.49$290.00個+11%$19.84$20.95$22.8013.7x13.0x11.9xPrevious$262.00$19.84$20.95$22.80$22.80PrincipalFinancialPFG$77.34$74.00$6.98$8.15$9.0511.1x9.5x8.5xGlobeLife$122.80$130.00個+5%$12.35$13.65$15.109.9x9.0x8.1xPrevious$124.00$12.35$13.65$15.10$15.10BrighthouseFinancialBHF$59.12$57.00$21.40$18.45$21.902.8x3.2x2.7xPleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.2ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.Pleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.3ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.JefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025EPSEstimatesP/ECompanyRatingPrice^PriceTarget202420252026202420252026VoyaFinancial$66.95$72.00個+7%$7.25$8.00$9.759.2x8.4x6.9xPrevious$67.00$7.25$8.00$9.75$9.75AflacAFL$104.07$94.00$7.21$6.60$7.1014.4x15.8x14.7x^Priortradingday'sclosingpriceunlessotherwisenoted.Cons.EPS:Sourceforconsensus:FactSetCons.Rev.:Sourceforconsensus:FactSetPleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.4ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.JefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025BacktothePastWhenwepublishedour2025Outlook(see:HERE),wewerefocusedondiversifyingourrecommendedexposuretoUSLifestocksintheeventofamarketcorrection(i.e.,aftertwoyearsofstrongequitymarketreturnsin2023/24).Asaresult,westartedtorecommend3USLifebasketsthatincludedonestockfromeachofthefollowingcategories:1)companiesleveredtoourannuitygrowththesis(i.e.,"Growers"),2)companiesthathadidiosyncraticre-ratingpotential(i.e.,"Re-Raters")and3)companiesthathadlowerbetas/weremoredefensive(i.e.,"Stablizers").Figure1showsthe3basketsthatwerecommendedaspartofour2025Outlookandeachcompany'sbeta.Sinceour2025Outlook,wedowngradedBHFtoHoldon2/3/25(see:HERE),whichcollapsedBasket3.Figure1-USLife:3-YearStockBetasandYTDStockPricePerformanceBasketsandratingsareasofthe2025USLifeOutlookfrom12/9/24GrowerStabilizer
YTDPerformance(rhs)AverageBetaGrowerStabilizer23%23%UNMUNMCRBG9%CNOCNO2%AFL0%AMP-4%JXN-5%VOYA-4%Basket#1Basket#2Basket#3Basket#1Basket#2Basket#3Source:FactSet,JefferiesFigure2showstheYTDperformanceofourbasketsversustheSPXandourHold-ratedstocks.Asnotedabove,weeffectivelycollapsedBasket3withourBHFdowngrade,sowestopthetimeseriesforthisbasketat2/3/25.OnaYTDbasis,Basket1andBasket2haveoutperformedtheSPXandourHold-ratedstocks.Thatsaid,wenotethatAMPandPRU,ourremainingBuy-ratedstocksthathadbeenpartofBasket3,haveunderperformed.Pleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.5ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.JefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025Figure2-USLife:YTDPerformanceofJEF'sUSLifeBasketsPerformancebasedonsimpleaveragesSource:FactSet,JefferiesMoreover,inthecaseofLNCandUNM,whichweretwoofourRe-Raters,bothinsurersannouncedcompany-specificcatalystsearlierthisyear(e.g.,aFCFconversionupwardrevisionandBainCapitalequityinvestmentforLNCandanLTCreinsurancedealforUNM).Whilewewouldarguethatbothstockshavemoreupside,wefeelitfairtonotethatsomeoftheirrespectivecatalystshavebeenannounced,particularlyinthecaseofUNM.WhileourbasketapproachhasworkedreasonablywellonaYTDbasis,ourindividualstockpickinghasbeenabitmoremixed.Figure3showsYTDstockpriceperformance,decomposedbetweenchangesto2025EPSestimatesandchangesin2025EP/Emultiples.Figure3-USLife:Decompositionof2025YTDStockPricePerformance30%20%0%(10%)(20%)22%23%22%30%4%(6%)3%(2%)0%2%4%(6%)3%(2%)0%2%(13%)9%(1%)0%(5%)(1%)0%(5%)5%(5%)3%(5%)(1%)(7%)(5%)(11%)(4%)(9%)(5%)(1%)(7%)(5%)(11%)(4%)(6%)(5%)(5%)(6%)(5%)(6%)BHFAvgCNOCRBGVOYASPXJXNAFLAMPEQHBHFAvgCNOCRBGVOYASPXJXNAFLAMPChangein2025EEPSChangein2025P/EChangeinStockPriceSource:FactSet,JefferiesIfweexcludeBHF,whereweargueYTDoutperformanceismorearesultoftakeoverspeculationratherthancorefundamentals(which,frankly,havebeenratherweakonthecapital/RBCfront),wehavehadBuyratingsonthe4ofthetop5performingstocks(i.e.,UNM,EQH,CRBGandLNC).Thatsaid,referringtotheleftofFigure3,wehavealsohadBuyratingson3ofthe5worstperformingstocksinourcoverage(i.e.,PRU,RGAandAMP).Wecontinuetolikeallofour8Buy-ratedstocksbutfordifferentreasons.Figure10toFigure13intheAppendixprovideadditionaldetailsonourspecificviewsonthese8stocksaswellastherestofourPleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.6ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.JefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025coverage.Therefore,whilewearenotchanginganyratingsatthispoint,wefeelitisanappropriatetimetorevisitourstockranking.Lastly,Figure4showsstockpriceperformancesinceLiberationDay(4/2).WhiletheSPXhasrecoveredallofitslosses,theaveragelifestockisstilldown~5%.Amongtheunderperformingstocks,weseerepresentationfromall4ofthesub-sectorswetypicallyuse.Figure4-USLife:StockPricePerformanceSinceLiberationDay(4/2/25)0%(5%)(10%)(15%)(20%)(25%) 2.3% 2.3%4.7%AFLJXNAverageVOYAAMPAssetGatherersAFLJXNAverageVOYAAMPSource:FactSet,JefferiesBacktotheFuturePartofourrationaleforcreatingourbasketslastDecemberwastodiversifyourrecommendationsonmoreofanear-term,tacticalbasisrelativetoourpriorfocusonannuity-leveredcompanies.Atthispoint,wearepivotingbacktoourannuityfocus.Asaconsequence,wearemovingawayfromourbasketapproachandcollapsingBasket1andBasket2.Ourrationaleherereflects:1)ourexpectationthatequitymarketswillbemorestableaheadrelativetotheApril2025"TariffTantrum"and2)greaterconvictioninourannuitygrowththesispostourReturnofRetail2.0researchnote.Thisnotearguedthatannuitydemandshouldremainrobustoverthenextseveralyears,asdemandfromBabyBoomerscontinuesandiseventuallyaugmented/replacedbydemandfromGenerationX(see:HERE).Inotherwords,weareshiftingthefocusofourstockrankingBacktotheFuture.Figure5showsourrevisedstockranking.Wealsoshowstatisticsonthedirectionofchangerelativetoourpriorranking,impliedupsideonatotalreturnbasis,valuationandSellSideratingsexcludingJefferies.Pleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.7ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.JefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025Figure5-USLife:RankOrderingOurCoverageChangeJEFPriceImpliedSell-SideRatingCompanyvsPriorPrice6/2/25PriceTargetUpsidetoJEFPTDividendTotalReturn2025E2025EP/FCF3YearBeta Ratings(ex-JEF)#ofBuys%BuysYield33%33%2%35%35%8.0x969%CRBG4126%29%6.5x4846%51%4.5xUNM20428439%2%41%8.8x0.8867%8234%2%36%9.2x0.727%30%8.6x0.9AMP60520%646%29%35%7.6xCNOJXNGLVOYAAFL83272428029094(3%)7%(4%)6%(4%)9%(9%)2%4%2%4%0%2%8%0%7%(4%)(7%)4.2x9.5x8.9x3.1x8.1x222%429%862%Average3%8.7x~13x40%Source:FactSet,Companyreports,JefferiesOurtopthreepicksarenowEQH,CRBGandLNC.Weacknowledgethatallthreestockshaveaboveaveragebetas,and,assuch,exposeustomacrorisk.AnotherelementthatallthreehaveincommonisaboveaveragegrowthinFCFpershare.Tothisend,Figure6showsourprojectionsforgrowthinFCF,changesinaveragedilutedsharesand,marryingthetwo,increasesinFCFpershare.Asshown,weexpect18%+growthinFCFpersharefromthesecompanies,whichcomparestothesectoraverageof~11%.Figure6-USLife:FCFPerShareCAGR2024-28E30%25%20%0%-10%-15%-20%22%20%9%9%8%8%4%22%20%9%9%8%8%4%VOYACRBGVOYACRBGAMPJXNAFLUNMCNOAMPJXNAFLUNMCNOSharesFCF/ShareSource:Companyreports,JefferiesWhilewecontinuetoarguethatretailannuitiesistheareainUSLifewiththebiggestdisconnectbetweengrowthandvaluation,weunderstandthatsomeinvestorsmaynotwanttoownmorethanoneannuity-leveredcompany.ForinvestorsseekingmorediversificationinUSLife,wewouldhighlightourotherlower-betaBuy-ratedstocks,suchasRGA,UNMandMET.Pleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.8ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.JefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025PriceTargetRevisionsWearerevisingourpricetargetsacrossourcoverage.Theprimarydriversare:1)ourupdated2026EPSestimates/segmentearningsforecastsand2)changesintheP/EsoftheSPXandpeersusedinourSOTPmethodologiessinceourlastupdate.Figure7showsthechangesinourpricetargetsandimpliedvaluationmultiples.Figure7-USLife:ChangestoJefferiesPriceTargetsAFLAMPCNOCRBGGLJXNUNMVOYAMedianPriorPriceTarget$602$124$262$129$284$107RevisedPriceTarget$605$130$100$290$134$284$110%Change0%0%0%(2%)0%4%4%0%4%0%7%Upside(Downside)(9%)(4%)26%33%(3%)46%27%(4%)7%29%39%34%9%DividendYield0%4%4%TotalReturn(7%)20%(4%)29%35%7%30%0%8%35%41%36%ImpliedMultiples2.6x9.9x7.3x8.8x8.6x4.0x6.4x8.2x9.0x7.4x8.9x1Q:25P/B(ex-AOCI)8.5x0.4x0.9x2.5x0.5x0.7x4.2xCompanyreports,FactSet,JefferiesCalculationsCurrentStockPrice$104$510$59$38$33$53$122$83$33$79$77$272$104$204$82$662026EPS(Jefferies)7.1041.2021.904.255.657.9515.1020.207.559.909.0522.8014.9026.5010.109.751Q:25BVPSex-AOCI$52$71$142$38$43$28$89$174$67$65$71$68$98$154Source:FactSet,Companyreports,JefferiesIdentifyingBubbleStocksAsnotedabove,weview“BubbleStocks”asthosethatwefeelmaybeonthevergeofseeingchangestoconsensuspricetargetsand/orratings.Beforegettingintothedetails,wewouldmakeanimportantcaveat.Specifically,whileJefferiesrequirestotalreturnsof15%+forBuyratings,between(10)%and15%forHoldratings,anddownsideof10%ormoreforUnderperformratings,weacknowledgethatotherSellSidefirmsmayhavedifferenttolerancebands.ThisnuancecancomplicateourabilitytopredictchangestoSellSideratingsandpricetargets.Figure8showsthepercentageofBuyratingsforeachcoveredstock.Tous,consensusBuysarestocksthathaveBuyratingsfrom~60%+ofcoveringanalysts.Basedonthis(admittedlysubjective)definition,CRBG,EQH,MET,RGAandUNMfallintothecategoryofconsensusBuys.WewouldalsohighlightthatforLNC,werepresentthestock'sonlyBuyrating.Pleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.9ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.JefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025Figure8-USLife:PercentageofSellSideBuyRatings90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%ConsensusBuy75%71%70%69%69%JEFisonlyBuyrating75%71%70%69%69%27%20%20%20%6%CRBGEQHUNMGLAMPVOYAJXNAFLCNO27%20%20%20%6%CRBGEQHUNMGLAMPVOYAJXNAFLCNOSource:FactSet,JefferiesFigure9showshowourpricetargetscomparetoconsensus,aswellasrespectiveupside/(downside)statisticsonatotalreturnbasis.WeusethistabletoidentifyBubbleStocks.Figure9-USLife:PriceTargetComparisons-JEFvs.ConsensusDistributionofJEFPriceTickerRating6/2/25JEFPTConsentoConsensusYieldEQHBuy$53$70$6471%29%35%METBuy791009470%30%30%LNCBuy3348386%94%51%RGABuy20428424169%31%41%VOYAHold66727750%50%12%JXNHold83809520%80%1%UNMBuy821109569%31%36%GLHold12213014257%43%7CNOHold38424314%86%13%CRBGBuy33413775%25%29%PRUBuy10413411320%PRIHold27229030320%80%8%PFGHold77748227%73%0%AMPBuy51060552450%50%20%AFLHold1049410518%82%(7%)BHFHold59576118%82%(4%)Average41%Source:FactSet,JefferiesAttheindividualstocklevel,wewouldmakethefollowingobservations:LNC:BasedonthecurrentconsensusPT,LNChas~20%totalreturnpotential,includingadividendyieldinexcessof5%.Thatsaid,asnotedabove,weremaintheonlyBuyratingonthestock.Asaresult,itstrikesusthatLNCiswellpositionedforpotentialupgrades.CRBG:BasedonitscurrentSellSideratingsdistribution,CRBGstrikesusasaconsensusBuy.Thatsaid,onatotalreturnbasis,upsidetoconsensusexpectationsisonly~15%.Assuch,weareoftheviewthatCRBGisagoodcandidatetoseeupwardpricetargetrevisions.Whilethissamesituationcouldcreatedowngraderisk,wefeeloffsetsinclude:1)CRBG'sBaseSpreadIncome(BSI)beatin1Q:25and2)theprobabilityofFederalReserveratescutsislikelylowertodayrelativetoearlierintheyear.Inourview,bothofthesefactorsreducethechancesofdowngrades.Pleaseseeimportantdisclosureinformationonpages58-66ofthisreport.10ThisreportisintendedforJefferiesclientsonly.Unauthorizeddistributionisprohibited.JefferiesLifeInsuranceEquityResearchJune3,2025?PRU:PRUisaconsensusnon-Buy,yetthestockhas~14%totalreturnpotentialbasedonconsensus.Moreover,thestockhasanattractive~5%dividendyield.Assuch,PRUcouldbewell-placedforupgrades,particularlyifthesharesincrementallyunderperformfromhere.Thatsaid,wefeelthecompanywilllikelyneedtoprovidetheSellSidewithreasonstogetmoreconstructive.Inourview,anexitoftheIndividualLifebusiness(i.e.,similartoEQH'sProtectionSolutionsreinsurancedeal)couldbethetypeofcatalystthatcouldmovetheSellSidetoamoreconstructivestance.Thatsaid,givenmanagement'sresponsetoourquestiononthisscenarioonits1Q:25earningscall,wehavelowconvictionthatPRUwillgivethiscatalysttothemarket.CNO:CNOisaconsensusHoldbuthas~16%upsidetotheconsensusPT.AsnotedinFigure5above,postourre-rank,CNOisnowourhighestrankedHold-ratedstock.Assuch,wewouldnotbesurprisedtoseemorepositiveviewsemergeoverthecourseof2H:25,assumingitsfundamentalsarestrong.AppendixFigure10throughFigure13summarizeourviewsattheindividualstocklevel.Figure10-USLife:SummingUpOurStockCallsRatingCompanyPriceTargetETRInvestmentThesisPositivesKeyConcernsBuysEQHCRBGLNCRGA$53$7035%OurBuyratingreflectsEQH'sleveragetothefullUSRetirementvaluechain(e.g.,productmanufacturing,assetmanagementanddistribution),itshistoryofinnovation(e.g.,RILA/LPP)andstrongriskmanagement/capitaldeploymenttrackrecord.?OnlyannuitywriterwithexposuretofullRetirementvaluechain?Partnership/ownershipofABisawin/win?Shiftingmixtowardhighermultiplebusinessesincludingretirement,assetmanagement&wealthmanagement?Earnings/cashflowsaresensitivetoadownturninequitymarkets/long-terminterestrates/creditevents?MoreentrantsintheRILAmarket?PressureincoreGroupRetirementflows$33$4129%OurBuyratingreflectsCRBG'shighqualitybusinessmix,withlimitedexposuretotail-riskliabilities(e.g.,aggressiveVA,LTCandSGUL),strongEPSgrowthandanattractivenewbusinessenvironment.?HighqualityIndividualRetirementfranchisewithabroadproductsuite?Lackofexposuretotailriskliabilities
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