2024MidyearGlobalOutlookWavesoftransformationInstituteBlackROCK.BIIM0724U/M-3698250-20242024年中展望副主席副主席—貝萊德負(fù)責(zé)人—貝萊德投資研究所全球首席投資策略師—投資組合研究全球主管—可持續(xù)發(fā)展投資研究與分析主管–權(quán)衡情景變得真實(shí)傾向于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)現(xiàn)下一波浪潮234567全球選舉基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施人口統(tǒng)計(jì)視圖摘要8-9101112131415由于人工智能（AI）投資的潛在激增、低碳轉(zhuǎn)型和工業(yè)革命同等的變革。但該投資的速度、規(guī)模和影響高度不確定。它是在大流行后不同尋常的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下發(fā)生的：粘性通脹、利率上升、趨勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)疲弱和公共債務(wù)高企。我們認(rèn)為，通過(guò)轉(zhuǎn)型和由于勞動(dòng)年齡人口減少等供應(yīng)限制，宏觀和市場(chǎng)波新局面已經(jīng)形成。結(jié)果？與大流行前相比，增長(zhǎng)疲軟，通脹但現(xiàn)在，投資機(jī)會(huì)超越了宏觀背景。我們看到，在五大力量或結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變的推動(dòng)下，一波又一波的轉(zhuǎn)型即將到來(lái)。我們看到其中三個(gè)刺激了主要的資本支出：人工智能的競(jìng)賽、低碳轉(zhuǎn)型和供應(yīng)鏈的重新布線。這項(xiàng)投資的規(guī)模、速度和影響高度不確定，但我們認(rèn)為它可以像過(guò)去的技術(shù)革命一樣改變經(jīng)濟(jì)和市場(chǎng)。我們與貝萊德的投資組合經(jīng)理一起設(shè)計(jì)了五種截然不同的情景來(lái)評(píng)估近期前景，并認(rèn)識(shí)到情況可能很快發(fā)在大流行之前，低通脹允許央行大幅降息并進(jìn)行大規(guī)模資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)以提振經(jīng)濟(jì)。這提振了金融經(jīng)濟(jì)，并幫助推動(dòng)了債券和股票的上漲。在這個(gè)新體制下，實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)更加重要。我們的第一個(gè)主題是“變得真實(shí)”。我們看到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)中最大的機(jī)遇是投資流入基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、能源系統(tǒng)和技術(shù)以及驅(qū)動(dòng)它們的人員。我們認(rèn)為公司可能需要改進(jìn)商業(yè)模式并進(jìn)行投資以保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，這意味著公司基本面更加重要。我們認(rèn)為，贏家和輸家之間的差距可能比以往任何時(shí)候都更大。我們尋找能夠在不同場(chǎng)景中表現(xiàn)良好并傾向于當(dāng)前最有可能的場(chǎng)景的投資。對(duì)我們來(lái)說(shuō)，這是一個(gè)集中的人工智能場(chǎng)有可能發(fā)生時(shí)，我們隨時(shí)準(zhǔn)備適應(yīng)。我們的第三個(gè)主題是發(fā)現(xiàn)下一波浪潮。這是指在結(jié)果(和投資機(jī)會(huì))可能大不相同的情況下，保持活力，準(zhǔn)備徹底調(diào)整資產(chǎn)配置。投資影響：從6至12個(gè)月的前景來(lái)看，我們?nèi)匀辉龀置拦晒ぶ悄苤黝}股。增持日股是我們最堅(jiān)定的觀點(diǎn)之一。我們短期債券和信貸的收入。我們認(rèn)為，私人市場(chǎng)是利用早期在美國(guó)、加拿大、拉丁美洲、香港、新加坡和澳大利亞公開(kāi)分發(fā)。2適用于其他獲許可國(guó)家的機(jī)構(gòu)、專(zhuān)業(yè)、合格投資者和合格客戶。2BIM0724U/M-3698250-2/162024MidyearOutlook2024MidyearOutlookJeanBoivinHead—JeanBoivinHead—BlackRockInvestmentInstituteViceChairman—BlackRockWeiLiGlobalChiefInvestmentStrategist—BlackRockInvestmentInstituteVivekPaulGlobalHeadofPortfolioResearch—BlackRockInvestmentInstituteChristopherKaminkerHeadofSustainableInvestmentResearchandAnalytics–BlackRockInvestmentInstituteContents23-43423-4345-75678-148-9101112131415AIbuildoutGlobalelectionsGlobalelectionsInfrastructureDemographicsJapanReadytoadaptViewssummaryTransformationahead?WeighingscenariosThemesGettingrealLeaningintoriskSpottingthenextwaveTheworldcouldbeundergoingatransformationonparwiththeIndustrialRevolution-thankstoapotentialsurgeininvestmentinartificialintelligence(AI),thelow-carbontransitionandarewiringofglobalsupplychains.Butthespeed,sizeandimpactofthatinvestmentishighlyuncertain.Anditcomesagainstanunusualeconomicbackdroppost-pandemic:stickyinflation,higherinterestrates,weakertrendgrowthandhighpublicdebt.Wethinktakingriskbyleaningintothetransformationandadaptingastheoutlookchangeswillbekey.Thenewregimeofgreatermacroandmarketvolatilityhastakenhold,shapedbysupplyconstraintslikeshrinkingworking-agepopulations.Theresult?Higherinflationandinterestratesamidweakergrowthrelativetothepre-pandemicera–andelevatedpublicdebt.Butnowinvestmentopportunitiestranscendthemacrobackdrop.Weseewavesoftransformationonthehorizon,drivenbyfivemegaforces–orstructuralshifts.Weseethreeofthemspurringmajorcapitalspending:theracetobuildoutAI,thelow-carbontransitionandtherewiringofsupplychains.Thesize,speedandimpactofthatinvestmentishighlyuncertain,butwethinkitcouldtransformeconomiesandmarketslikepasttechnologicalrevolutions.TogetherwithBlackRock’sportfoliomanagers,wedesignedfivestarklydifferentscenariostoassessthenear-termoutlook,recognizingitcouldquicklychange.Beforethepandemic,lowinflationallowedcentralbankstoslashinterestratesandmakemassiveassetpurchasestobuoytheeconomy.Thatboostedthefinancialeconomy–andhelpeddrivegainsacrossbondsandstocks.Inthisnewregime,therealeconomymattersmore.OurfirstthemeisGettingreal.Weseethebiggestopportunitiesintherealeconomyasinvestmentflowsintoinfrastructure,energysystemsandtechnology–andthepeopledrivingthem.Wethinkcompaniesmayneedtorevampbusinessmodelsandinvesttostaycompetitive.Forinvestors,itmeanscompanyfundamentalswillmatterevenmore.Thegapbetweenwinnersandloserscouldbewiderthanever,inourview.ThatdispersioncreatesopportunitiesandiswhyoursecondthemeisLeaningintorisk.Theanswertoahighlyuncertainoutlookisnotsimplyreducingrisk.Welookforinvestmentsthatcandowellacrossscenariosandleanintothecurrentmostlikelyone.Forus,that’saconcentratedAIscenariowhereahandfulofAIwinnerscankeepdrivingstocks.Westandreadytoadaptasandwhenanotherscenario–potentiallysuddenly–becomesmorelikelyasthetransformationunfolds.SoourthirdthemeisSpottingthenextwave.Thisisaboutbeingdynamicandreadytooverhaulassetallocationswhenoutcomes–andinvestmentopportunities-canbevastlydifferent.Investmentimplications:WestayoverweightU.S.stocksandtheAIthemeonasix-to12-monthview.OuroverweighttoJapanesestocksisoneofourhighest-convictionviews.Welikeincomeinshort-termbondsandcredit.Andweseeprivatemarketsasawaytotapintotheearlywinnersandtheinfrastructureneededfortheinvestmentboomahead.2BIIM0724U/M-3698250-引言引言轉(zhuǎn)型在即？我們認(rèn)為，世界可能正在經(jīng)歷歷史上罕見(jiàn)的大規(guī)模變革浪潮。巨大的力量正在推動(dòng)這一轉(zhuǎn)變，并開(kāi)始向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)釋放大量投資:基礎(chǔ)從而重塑市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)。請(qǐng)看圖表。然而，這種投資的速度和規(guī)模，以及它對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)生考慮人工智能。擴(kuò)大人工智能能力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已一階段，也很難確定確切的數(shù)量。這將取決于任何資源限制，比如在已經(jīng)增長(zhǎng)的需求(包在第二階段，我們認(rèn)為投資將擴(kuò)大到尋求利低碳轉(zhuǎn)型也刺激了大量投資。貝萊德投資研《轉(zhuǎn)型情景》估計(jì)，未來(lái)十年，能源系統(tǒng)投資將達(dá)到每年3.5萬(wàn)億美元。地緣政治分裂加劇也意味著投資:各國(guó)將國(guó)家安全置于經(jīng)濟(jì)未來(lái)投資速度和規(guī)模的不確定性，加上以供應(yīng)限制為標(biāo)志的不尋常的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景，使得人們很難準(zhǔn)確判斷世界的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展方向。但我先是人工智能建設(shè)的進(jìn)步，然后是廣泛采用。這一進(jìn)展有助于提供方向——使我們能夠不斷發(fā)展資產(chǎn)配置。對(duì)GDP的累積貢獻(xiàn)總額資本支出全要素生產(chǎn)率人工智能與低碳轉(zhuǎn)型2024-2030s信息和通信技術(shù)0102030圖表要點(diǎn)：人工智能和低碳轉(zhuǎn)型可能會(huì)刺激歷史上規(guī)模龐大的資本支出，而且所需時(shí)間比之前的技術(shù)革命要短得多。前瞻性估計(jì)可能不會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)。資料來(lái)源：貝萊德投資研究所，2024年6月，數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自Crafts(2021)。注：該圖表顯示了美國(guó)以前的技術(shù)（“蒸汽”除外）在所示期間對(duì)GDP的累積貢獻(xiàn)。對(duì)信息和通信技術(shù)、電力和蒸汽的估計(jì)取自Crafts(2021)等歷史經(jīng)濟(jì)文獻(xiàn)。人工智能(AI)和轉(zhuǎn)型所需的支出是基于對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)中心投資要求的外部研究和BII轉(zhuǎn)型場(chǎng)景（針對(duì)專(zhuān)業(yè)投資者）的BII估算這里）。其他革命發(fā)生了幾十年，因此我們對(duì)人工智能和轉(zhuǎn)型相關(guān)支出的估計(jì)假設(shè)在短時(shí)間內(nèi)是樂(lè)觀的情況。在美國(guó)、加拿大、拉丁美洲、香港、新加坡和澳大利亞公開(kāi)分發(fā)。適用于其他獲許可國(guó)家的機(jī)構(gòu)、專(zhuān)業(yè)、合格投資者和合格客戶。3BIM0724U/M-3698250-3/16IntroIntroTransformationahead?Wethinktheworldcouldbeundergoingwavesoftransformationonascalerarelyseeninhistory.Megaforcesaredrivingthistransformationandarestartingtounleashmassiveinvestmentintotherealeconomy:infrastructure,energysystems,advancedtechnology–andpeople.Wethinkthevolumeofinvestmentcouldbeonaparwithpasttechnologicalrevolutions–reshapingmarketsandeconomies.Seethechart.Yetthespeedandscaleofthatinvestment,anditspotentialimpactoneconomy-wideproductivity,arehighlyuncertain.ConsiderAI.TheracetoscaleupAIcapabilitiesisalreadyspurringmajorcapitalspending.ArangeofestimatesseeinvestmentinAIdatacentersrisingby60-100%annuallyincomingyears.Yetitisdifficulttopindownexactamounts,eveninthefirstphaseoftheAIbuildout.Itwilldependonanyresourceconstraints–likedifficultymeetingAI’senergyneedsontopofalreadygrowingdemand,includingforelectrification.Innovationsincomputingandenergycouldeasethoseconstraints.Inasecondphase,wethinkinvestmentwillbroadenouttofirmsseekingtoharnessAI–withtheamountdependingonAI’sbuildoutandadoption.Itispossiblethatthisallresultsinathirdphaseofbroadproductivitygains.Seepages8-9.Thelow-carbontransitionisalsospurringmajorinvestment.OurBlackRockInvestmentInstituteTransitionScenarioestimatesenergysysteminvestmentwillhit$3.5trillionperyearthisdecade.Risinggeopoliticalfragmentationalsoimpliesinvestment:countriesareprioritizingnationalsecurityovereconomicefficiency.Reconfiguringsupplychainsrequiresinvestment.Uncertaintyaroundthespeedandscaleofcominginvestment,plusanunusualeconomicbackdropmarkedbysupplyconstraints,makeittoughtogaugeexactlywheretheworldisheadinglongerterm.Butweseethetransformationevolvingthroughdistinctphases,likeadvancesintheAIbuildoutfirstandbroadadoptionlater.Thisprogressioncanhelpprovidedirection–enablingustoevolveassetallocationsontheway.MegacapexcomingTotalcumulativecontributionstoGDPCapitalspendingTotalfactorproductivityAI&low-carbontransition2024-2030sInformationandcommunicationtech1970s-2010sElectricity1880s-1940sSteam(UK)1760s-1840s?0102030PercentagepointsCharttakeaway:AIandthelow-carbontransitioncouldspurhistoricallylargecapitalspending-andinamuchshorterspaceoftimethanprevioustechnologicalrevolutions.Weseeapossibleinvestmentboomaheadthatcouldtransformeconomiesandmarkets.Butthespeed,scaleandimpactofthatinvestmentisunclear.3BIIM0724U/M-3698250-應(yīng)用場(chǎng)景股票債券高利率，硬著陸集中式人工智能生產(chǎn)力的廣泛提升（人工智能和資本支出繁榮）股票債券高利率，硬著陸集中式人工智能生產(chǎn)力的廣泛提升（人工智能和資本支出繁榮）人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的增長(zhǎng)基礎(chǔ)廣泛，提升了潛獲救硬著陸是人工智能估值是否領(lǐng)先于否是人工智能估值是否領(lǐng)先于否是否否是否是整體收益率會(huì)高于當(dāng)前結(jié)構(gòu)性增長(zhǎng)是否會(huì)比大流行前是整體收益率會(huì)高于當(dāng)前結(jié)構(gòu)性增長(zhǎng)是否會(huì)比大流行前未來(lái)12個(gè)月會(huì)出現(xiàn)衰退嗎？的觀點(diǎn)，即人工智能估值植根于穩(wěn)健的盈利。未來(lái)12個(gè)月會(huì)出現(xiàn)衰退嗎？由于市場(chǎng)或經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的變化，所表達(dá)的意見(jiàn)可能隨時(shí)發(fā)生變化。本材料代表對(duì)特定時(shí)間市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的評(píng)估，并非對(duì)未來(lái)事件來(lái)源：貝萊德投資研究所，由于市場(chǎng)或經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的變化，所表達(dá)的意見(jiàn)可能隨時(shí)發(fā)生變化。本材料代表對(duì)特定時(shí)間市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的評(píng)估，并非對(duì)未來(lái)事件來(lái)源：貝萊德投資研究所，2024年7月。注：我們這里的五個(gè)場(chǎng)景可以表示為不同路徑上的節(jié)點(diǎn)。作為兩個(gè)例子，箭頭表示債回報(bào)的預(yù)期。兩個(gè)箭頭表示在這種情況下預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有比單個(gè)箭頭更大的相對(duì)移動(dòng)。我們僅展示美國(guó)股票和國(guó)債，但對(duì)多個(gè)資產(chǎn)類(lèi)別進(jìn)行了分析。僅用于4適用于其他獲許可國(guó)家的機(jī)構(gòu)、專(zhuān)業(yè)、合格投資者和合格客戶。4BIM0724U/M-3698250-4/16termscenariostermscenariosWeusescenariostohelpidentifywhereeconomiesandmarketsmaybeheadedonasix-to12-monthhorizon.Theyhelpputparametersaroundverydifferentstatesoftheworld–eveniftheydon’tcapturethemanypotentialoutcomesbeyondthathorizon.WeworkedwithportfoliomanagersacrossBlackRocktodevelopfive,distinctscenariosforthenear-termoutlook.Weseetwoscenarioswhereequitiescandowell:onewithaconcentratedgroupofwinnersinAI,evenwithatoughmacrobackdrop,andanotherwhereAI-drivengrowthbecomesmorebroad-based,leadingtoproductivitygainsandsharpratecuts.Thetwohardeconomiclandingscenariosdifferonwhethercentralbankscancometotherescuewithratecuts.Thefifthisoneofsubduedgrowthandstubborninflation,whereinflationprovessticky,keepingcentralbankpolicyrateshigher.Thearrowsontherightshowhowtheassumedmarketimpactcandivergesharplyacrossthesescenarios.WeleanintotheconcentratedAIcase,reflectingourviewthatAIvaluationsarerootedinsolidearnings.Yetwestandreadytopivot–andourapproachgivesusaroadmaptogaugewhenanotherscenariobecomesmorelikely.Wethinkexpertiseinidentifyingthesescenarioshiftscouldhelpinvestorsdeliveroutsizedreturns.U.S.U.S.returnsStocksBondsNoNoAreAIvaluationsaheadoffundamentals?WilloverallyieldsbehigherthancurrentNoNoAreAIvaluationsaheadoffundamentals?Willoverallyieldsbehigherthancurrentmarketpricing?WillgrowthbestructurallyNoNoweakerthanbeforethepandemic?Willtherebearecessioninthenext12months?Highrates,hardlandingStickyinflationrulesoutratecuts,andstrongdemandcouldtriggerfurtherhikes.Growthslowssharply.AIvaluationshithard.ConcentratedAIAI-drivengrowthboostnotenoughtooffsetotherstructuraldrags.Inflationpressureisongoingandpolicyratesstayhighforlonger.Subduedgrowth,stubborninflationGrowthslowstoalowertrendpace,inflationisstickyabovetargetandpolicyratesstayhigher.Broadproductivitygains(AIandcapexboom)AI-drivengrowthisbroadbased,liftingpotentialoutput.Inflationismutedandpolicyratesarecutsharply.RescuedhardlandingRatehikesoverwhelmabroad-basedAI-drivengrowthboost.Inflationfallsbelowtarget.Centralbanksdeliverdeepratecuts.BIIM0724U/M-3698250-主題1主題1濟(jì)的管道和人民。想想為人工智能模型、計(jì)算機(jī)芯片、太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電場(chǎng)、超級(jí)電池、擴(kuò)張和勞動(dòng)力的增長(zhǎng)抑制了宏觀波動(dòng)：贏家能夠以多快的速度出現(xiàn)并獲得回報(bào)。萬(wàn)億（美元）3210051015202530年圖表要點(diǎn)：英偉達(dá)的飆升反映了人工智能興起帶來(lái)的巨大投資預(yù)期。此信息無(wú)意作為投資任何特定資產(chǎn)類(lèi)別或策略的建議，也無(wú)意作為對(duì)未來(lái)業(yè)績(jī)的承諾（甚至估計(jì)）。過(guò)去的表現(xiàn)并不是未來(lái)結(jié)果的可靠指標(biāo)。資料來(lái)源：貝萊德投資研究所，數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)自彭博適用于其他獲許可國(guó)家的機(jī)構(gòu)、專(zhuān)業(yè)、合格投資者和合格客戶。5BIM0724U/M-3698250-5/16ThemeTheme1GettingrealWeseemuchofthepotentiallargeinvestmentflowingintothepipesandpeopleoftheeconomy.ThinknewdatacenterspoweringAImodels,computerchips,solarfarms,superbatteries,factories,logisticscenters–androads,bridges,schoolsandhospitalsincountrieswithgrowingpopulations.It’sanewwaveofinvestmentintotherealeconomytransformingeconomiesandmarkets.It’saworldwherecompanyfundamentalswillmatterevenmore,wethink.Thisisabigchangefromthepre-2020dominanceofthefinancialeconomy.Steadilyexpandingglobalproductioncapacityandgrowingworkforceskeptmacrovolatilityatbay:whenevergrowthfaltered,centralbankscouldcometotherescuewithoutfearinganinflationflare-up.Thisstabilityreduceduncertaintyandallowedcentralbankstosignaltheirintentionswellinadvance.Suchafavorablebackdropbuoyedmostcompanies,leavinglittleroomfordifferentiationamongbusinessesandstockpickers.Wethinkthateraisover.Astherealeconomytakesoverfromthefinancialeconomy,wethinkinvestorsshouldactivelypositionforwavesoftransformationlikewehaverarelyseenbefore,wethink.Weseewidespreadopportunitiesforcompaniesthatinnovateandpositionthemselvestotakeadvantageofthistransformation.ThatincludesbuildingcapabilitiestoharnessAI,forexample.Spottingwinnerswillrequiredeepinsightsonthetechnologybeingdeveloped,itsapplicationsandthepotentialdisruptionitentails.Weareseeingthatplayoutnowwithcompaniesbuildingstrongcashflowsfromtherealeconomythankstotheirdominantpositions.Nvidia’spricesurgeshowshowfastwinnerscanemerge–andberewarded.Companieswhofallbehindarelikelytostruggleinthisenvironment–partlybecausecentralbankswon’tbeabletorespondeasilywithlowerratesifgrowthweakens,inourview.Wearenotgoingbacktoatimeofcheapandplentifulcapital.NvidiaandtheAImomentYearstogofrom$10billiontocurrentmarketcapitalizationTrillion(U.S.dollar)3210 NvidiaAppleAmazonTeslaMicrosoftTeslaMetaAlphabet051015202530YearsCharttakeaway:Nvidia’ssurgereflectsthebiginvestmentexpectationsasaresultoftheriseofAI.InvestmentimplicationsInvestmentimplications?Welikeinfrastructureandindustrialcompaniesexposedtotheinvestmentboom.?High-for-longerpolicyratespromptsustofavorqualityinbothfixedincomeandequities.5BIIM0724U/M-3698250-主題主題233這種轉(zhuǎn)變可能會(huì)采取幾種截然不同的路徑中的任何一種：例如，它可能會(huì)2102102005201020152020圖表要點(diǎn)：一些美國(guó)公司股票的價(jià)值現(xiàn)在超過(guò)了一些國(guó)家的整個(gè)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)，表明了它們?nèi)绾文軌蛑鲗?dǎo)廣泛的指數(shù)敞口。這強(qiáng)調(diào)了為2005201020152020圖表要點(diǎn)：一些美國(guó)公司股票的價(jià)值現(xiàn)在超過(guò)了一些國(guó)家的整個(gè)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)，表明了它們?nèi)绾文軌蛑鲗?dǎo)廣泛的指數(shù)敞口。這強(qiáng)調(diào)了為什么投資者必須深思熟慮地承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。此信息無(wú)意作為投資任何特定資產(chǎn)類(lèi)別或策略的建議，也無(wú)意作為對(duì)未來(lái)業(yè)績(jī)的承諾（估計(jì)）。不可能直接投資于指數(shù)。指數(shù)表現(xiàn)不考慮費(fèi)用。資料來(lái)源：貝萊德投資研究所，數(shù)市值。用于英國(guó)和德國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的指數(shù)代理：MSCI英國(guó)和6適用于其他獲許可國(guó)家的機(jī)構(gòu)、專(zhuān)業(yè)、合格投資者和合格客戶。6BIM0724U/M-3698250-6/16Theme2Theme2LeaningThetransformationcouldtakeanyofseveralverydifferentpaths:itcouldleadtoabroadproductivityboomortoAIwinnersbecomingovervalued,forexample.Investorsmayfeeltemptedtositonthesidelinesandawaitclarity–especiallygiventheattractivereturnsfromholdingcash.Yetweseebiggerrewardsforleaningintoriskinthisenvironment.WethinkmarketsarelikelytokeeprewardingperceivedAIwinnersinthenextsixto12months–regardlessofwherethetransformationleadslongerterm.Wethinkinvestorsshouldtakeriskmoredeliberatelynow,acrossmultipledimensions.First,considerthetimehorizon.Wehavemostconvictionaboutthenearterm.WethinklargetechnologycompaniesinvestingheavilyintheAIbuildout,chipproducersandfirmssupplyingkeyinputslikeenergyandutilitiescankeepdoingwell.That’swhyweleanintotheconcentratedAIscenario.Seepages8-9.Beyondtech,welikesectorssuchasindustrialsandmaterialsthatarealsosettobenefitintheoriskSecond,bedeliberateinchoosingthetypeofriskexposure.Afewwinner-takes-allcompanieshavedrivenU.S.equitygainsthisyear.Wedon’tseetheconcentrationofequityperformanceasaproblemasmegacapshavedeliveredonearnings.YetweactivelychoosetoleanmoreheavilyintoAIthanbenchmarkindexweights.TwobigU.S.techfirmseachhaveamarketcapitalizationlargerthantheentireUKorGermanbenchmarkstockindexes.Seethechart.Third,bedeliberateaboutblendingdifferentsourcesofreturnacrosspublicandprivatemarkets.Wethinkbothactivestrategiesandprivatemarketsplayabiggerrolenow–andseeprivatemarketsasawaytogainaccesstotheearlyjourneysoffirmssettowininapotentiallyrapidtransformation.Wealsoseebroaderopportunitiesinprivatemarketsthanpublicones.That’sespeciallytrueinaworldwhereelevateddebtlimitstheabilityofgovernmenttoinvestininfrastructure.Still,privatemarketsarecomplexandnotsuitableforallinvestors.Trillions(U.S.dollar)CompanieslargerthancountrystockmarketsMarketcapitalizationofselectU.S.companiesandstockindexes,2005-2432102005201020152020MicrosoftAppleUKGermanyCharttakeaway:SomeU.S.companystocksarenowlargerinvaluethantheentirebenchmarkindexofsomenations,showinghowtheycandominatebroadindexexposures.Thisemphasizeswhyinvestorsmustbedeliberatewiththeirrisk-taking.InvestmentimplicationsInvestmentimplications?Weleanintoanabove-benchmarkexposuretotheAItheme.Wealsolikesectorssuchastech,industrials,energyandmaterials.?Thisisanenvironmentthatfavorsprivatemarketsandblendingsourcesofreturns.6BIIM0724U/M-3698250-主題3主題3潮不同的——或“多分支的”結(jié)果。這意味我們相信，由于我們面臨著截然不同的世界狀況，積極的態(tài)度是關(guān)鍵。”實(shí)際GDP實(shí)際GDP201520202025203020352040適用于其他獲許可國(guó)家的機(jī)構(gòu)、專(zhuān)業(yè)、合格投資者和合格客戶。7BIM0724U/M-3698250-7/16Theme3Theme3SpottingthenextwaveWeareinaworldwheremultiple,starklydifferent–or“polyfurcated”–outcomesarepossible.Thismeanswecannolongerviewtheoutlookintermsofslightdeviationsaroundacentraloutcome.Weneedtolookatwholenewwaysofhowthewavesoftransformationcouldreshapetheeconomyandassetreturnsahead.Distributionsareausefulwaytothinkaboutthis.Acentralbasecasemeantasingledistributionwassufficientinthepastfordescribingpotentialoutcomes.Wethinklookingattheworldinmultipledistributions–withverylittleoverlapbetweenthem–isabetterwayofcharacterizingthepossiblescaleofthewavesoftransformationahead.WeshowtwodistinctbranchesforU.S.GDPwithdistributionsaroundthemtoillustratethis.Seethechart.Diverginggrowthpicturesarejustoneexampleoftheverydifferentwaysinwhichtheeconomycouldreconfigure.Atransformationpotentiallyonaparwithpasttechnologicalrevolutionscouldseeentiresectorsrevamped.Itcouldmeanaworldthatlooksverydifferentfromthelowgrowth,lowinflationenvironmentthatdominatedinthedecadeaftertheglobalfinancialcrisis.Suchprofoundchangescouldmakeitnecessarytorethinkwhatalong-termanchorforassetallocationlookslike.Whatdoesthismeaninpractice?Investorsshouldlookforwherethenextwaveofinvestmentopportunitymaycome–andbereadytooverhaulportfolioallocationstocaptureit.Thisisnotonlyaboutthenextsixmonthsoryear,butaboutrecognizingthepossibilityofverydifferentfuturestatesoftheworld.OnthenextpagewelayoutthreephasesofAIevolutiontohelptrackthepathofglobaltransformation.Webelieveanactiveapproachiskeyaswefaceverydifferentstatesoftheworld.”HelenJewellChiefInvestmentOfficerEMEA,FundamentalEquities–BlackRockStarklydifferentoutcomesStylizedviewoftwodifferentU.S.GDPoutcomesBroadproductivityConstrainedgrowth201520202025203020352040Charttakeaway:Investingtodaymeansthinkingabouthowtheworldcanlookstarklydifferentinthefuture–withcompletelydifferentoutcomes–ratherthanconsideringonlydeviationsaroundacentraloutcome.InvestmentimplicationsInvestmentimplications?Awiderangeofoutcomesmeansstandingreadytooverhaulportfolioallocationstocaptureopportunitiesfromprofoundchanges.?Investorsmayneedtorethinkwhatalong-termanchorforassetallocationlookslike.BIIM0724U/M-3698250-焦點(diǎn)焦點(diǎn)——人工智能人工智能正在快速發(fā)展…人工智能的巨大力量——在很大程度上仍是美國(guó)的故事——今年推動(dòng)了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾的核心，可能會(huì)在即將到來(lái)的投資浪潮中占據(jù)很大一部分。我們相信，人工智能可以在大多數(shù)結(jié)果中繼續(xù)推動(dòng)回報(bào)。我們沒(méi)有看到科技泡沫:盈利和基本面支撐著當(dāng)前的估值。典型的例子是：到目前為止，英偉達(dá)的預(yù)期盈利與其股價(jià)的飆升保持同步。我們認(rèn)為理解人工智能如何從這里進(jìn)化是人工智能構(gòu)建些大型科技公司正在競(jìng)相投資數(shù)據(jù)中心以確保這種能力。我們正處于這個(gè)階段的開(kāi)始。早期的贏家已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，包括那些科技公司、芯片生產(chǎn)商以及提供能源、公用事業(yè)、材料和房地產(chǎn)等關(guān)鍵投入的公司。然而，建設(shè)面臨著挑戰(zhàn)，特別是電網(wǎng)能否足政策和監(jiān)管也可能會(huì)抑制建設(shè)。例如，如果定者可能會(huì)介入。關(guān)于人工智能使用的規(guī)則可能會(huì)影響其采用。隨著銅、鋁和鋰等金屬和礦物的需求增長(zhǎng)，供應(yīng)瓶頸也可能會(huì)減緩進(jìn)展——作為低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的投入，這些金屬和礦人工智能投資范圍擴(kuò)大2022-2030年數(shù)據(jù)中心電力需求占美16%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%估計(jì)國(guó)20222024202620282030圖表要點(diǎn)：為大型語(yǔ)言模型等人工智能應(yīng)用提供支持的數(shù)據(jù)中心的電力需求將會(huì)增長(zhǎng)，但速度尚不確定。要滿足這些需求，可能需要對(duì)電網(wǎng)和可再生能源進(jìn)行大規(guī)模投資。前瞻性估計(jì)可能不會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)。資料來(lái)源：貝萊德投資研究所、國(guó)際能源署(IEA)、高盛、BGIF、美國(guó)銀行、施耐德、Semianalytics、伯恩斯坦、麥肯錫、波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)和貝萊德基本股票團(tuán)隊(duì)，2024年5月。注：圖表顯示數(shù)據(jù)中心2022年電力需求占美國(guó)總電力需求的比例。數(shù)據(jù)中心電力需求包括來(lái)自傳統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)中心和人工智能(AI)計(jì)算/專(zhuān)用AI數(shù)據(jù)中心的電力需求，不包括加密貨幣和數(shù)據(jù)傳輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)的消耗。在美國(guó)、加拿大、拉丁美洲、香港、新加坡和澳大利亞公開(kāi)分發(fā)。適用于其他獲許可國(guó)家的機(jī)構(gòu)、專(zhuān)業(yè)、合格投資8者和合格客戶。8BIM0724U/M-3698250-8/16Focus-AIFocus-AIAI’srapidbuildoutnow…TheAIjuggernaut–stilllargelyaU.S.story-haspoweredtheS&P500thisyear.WethinkAIiscentraltothetransformation–andcouldmakeupalargepartofthecominginvestmentwave.WebelieveAIcankeepdrivingreturnsacrossmostoutcomes.Wedon’tseeatechbubble:earningsandfundamentalssupportcurrentvaluations.Caseinpoint:Nvidia’sforwardearningshavekeptpacewithitsrocketingsharepricesofar.WethinkanunderstandingofhowAIcouldevolvefromhereiskey.Weseethreedistinctphases.1AIbuildoutAIreliesonvastcomputingpower,sosomelargetechnologyfirmsareracingtoinvestindatacenterstosecurethatpower.We’reatthestartofthisphase.Earlywinnersarealreadyemerging,includingthosetechfirms,chipproducersandfirmssupplyingkeyinputslikeenergy,utilities,materialsandrealestate.Yetthebuildoutfaceschallenges,notablywhetherthepowergridcangrowfastenough.AI’spowerneedsareexpectedtogrowincomingyears,evenwithfurtherenergyefficiency.Seethechart.Policyandregulationcouldputthebrakesonbuildout,too.Forexample,policymakersmaystepinifdatacentergrowthpushesuplocalenergyprices.AndrulesontheuseofAIcouldimpactadoption.Supplybottleneckscouldalsoslowprogressasdemandgrowsformetalsandmineralslikecopper,aluminumandlithium–alreadyinhighdemandasinputsforthelow-carbontransition.2AIinvestmentbroadensHereweseeinvestmentbroadeningtofirmslookingtoharnessAI.Weseesomeofthatalready,especiallyinhealthcare.Itandothersectorslikefinancialsandcommunicationservicescouldbenefit,potentiallyliftingeconomicgrowth.Yetbothphases1and2couldbeinflationary:buildingAIandretoolingcreatesextrademandbeforeanysupply-sideorproductivitybenefitsarise.Wedon’tthinkmarketsorcentralbanksappreciatethatyet.MassiveenergyandinvestmentneedsDatacenterpowerdemandasashareoftotalU.S.demand,2022-2030Shareoftotalpowerdemand16%14%12%10% 8% 6% 4% 2%0%--Estimates—-IEAestimate20222024202620282030Charttakeaway:ThepowerneedsfordatacentersthatfeedAIapplicationslikelargelanguagemodelsaresettogrow–butthepaceisuncertain.Meetingthoseneedscouldrequiremassiveinvestmentinpowergridsandrenewableenergy.InvestmentimplicationsInvestmentimplications?AI’sbuildoutcouldinitiallybeinflationaryasdemandforenergyandcommoditiessurges.?Earlywinnerscouldincludelargetechfirms,chipmakersandenergyandutilityfirms–beforebenefitsexpandtoothersectors.8BIIM0724U/M-3698250-焦點(diǎn)焦點(diǎn)——人工智能…以后可以提高生產(chǎn)率在這個(gè)非常不確定的階段，人工智能可以使經(jīng)濟(jì)體以相同數(shù)量的資本、勞動(dòng)力和能源生產(chǎn)更多產(chǎn)品，因?yàn)槿斯ぶ悄苤С值膭?chuàng)新可能平衡人工智能的電力需求。技術(shù)創(chuàng)新以前就做到了這一點(diǎn)。該圖表顯示，近十年來(lái)，計(jì)算機(jī)的廣泛采用使每小時(shí)的平人工智能最終可以幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)更快增長(zhǎng)并緩尚不確定。人工智能競(jìng)賽中的資本可能會(huì)被錯(cuò)誤配置。據(jù)估計(jì)，人工智能對(duì)美國(guó)年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)作用范圍為0.1至1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)低端更為現(xiàn)實(shí)——這將成果只有在人工智能能力得到充分部署后才能實(shí)現(xiàn)。這可能需要數(shù)年時(shí)間，然后是典型的滯后。蒸汽機(jī)花了近一個(gè)世紀(jì)的時(shí)間才提高生產(chǎn)力。年才獲得回報(bào)。這一階段在一年內(nèi)開(kāi)始并非與早期階段相比，這一階段的潛在贏家并不那么明確。它可能只是擁有關(guān)鍵技術(shù)的公司的一部分。或者社會(huì)的某些部分：例如，如果人工智能提高了工人的生產(chǎn)力，工資可能會(huì)上漲——整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)都會(huì)廣泛感受到這種好處。無(wú)論如何，人工智能很可能會(huì)刺激跨部門(mén)的工人的廣泛重新分配。即使存在這種不確定性，未來(lái)巨大回報(bào)的潛力也支持了現(xiàn)在人工智能最終可以帶來(lái)廣泛的生產(chǎn)力提升——但道路是不確定的。”西蒙娜·帕拉瓦尼·梅林貝萊德多資產(chǎn)策略與解決方案聯(lián)席主管美國(guó)IT投資率和生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)，1970-24%信息技術(shù)投資4%3%2%1%3%2%1%0%生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)197019801990200020102020圖表要點(diǎn)：20世紀(jì)70年代及以后對(duì)信息技術(shù)的投資不斷增加，為美國(guó)的生產(chǎn)力帶來(lái)了有意義的提升，但只是有滯后性。該圖表顯示了美國(guó)歷史生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)情況以及信息技術(shù)處理設(shè)備和軟件的投資在美國(guó)、加拿大、拉丁美洲、香港、新加坡和澳大利亞公開(kāi)分發(fā)。適用于其他獲許可國(guó)家的機(jī)構(gòu)、專(zhuān)業(yè)、合格投資9者和合格客戶。9BIM0724U/M-3698250-9/16FocusFocus–AIproductivitylater3ProductivityboomInthisveryuncertainphase,AIcouldenableeconomiestoproducemorewiththesameamountofcapital,labor–andenergyasAI-enabledinnovationpotentiallybalancesoutAI’spowerneeds.Technologicalinnovationshavedonethatbefore.Thechartshowsbroadcomputeradoptiondroveupaverageoutputperhourbyover1percentagepointfornearlyadecade.AIcouldeventuallyhelpeconomiesgrowfasterandeaseinflationpressure,inourview.ThesizeandspreadofproductivitygainsfromAIareuncertain.CapitalcouldbemisallocatedintheAIrace.