版權說明：本文檔由用戶提供并上傳，收益歸屬內容提供方，若內容存在侵權，請進行舉報或認領
文檔簡介
NIESR
MonthlyGDPTracker
UKEconomyontheRoadtoRecoveryin2024FollowingtheMildRecession
PaulaBejaranoCarboandHaileyLow
13March2024
"Today’sONSdataindicatethatmonthlyGDPgrewby0.2percentinJanuary2024,followingafallof0.1percentinDecember2023.Whilethisseemspositive,GDPfellby0.1percentinthethreemonthstoJanuary,inlinewithourforecastlastmonth.Inbroaderterms,UKeconomicgrowthhasbeennear-zerosince2022andGDPperheadremainslowerthanpre-Covid.Toescapethelow-growthtrap,structuralchangesareneeded,suchasanincreaseinpublicinvestment,particularlyininfrastructure,educationandhealth–whichwouldalsosupportgrowthinbusinessinvestment."
PaulaBejaranoCarbo
Economist,NIESR
-2-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
niesr.ac.uk
NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch
Mainpoints
?MonthlyGDPgrewby0.2percentinJanuary,followingacontractionof0.1percentinDecember.Thismonthlyfigurewasmainlydrivenbyincreasingoutputinconstructionandservices,particularlyretailandwholesaling.
?GDPcontractedby0.1percentinthethreemonthstoJanuaryrelativetothepreviousthree-monthperiod,inlinewithourpreviousforecast.Thiswasgeneratedbyanoutputfallinconstructionandproduction.
?WeforecastGDPtogrowby0.3percentinthefirstquarterof2024.Thisforecastremainsbroadlyconsistentwiththelonger-termtrendoflow,butstableeconomicgrowthintheUnitedKingdom(Figure1).
?Aswenotedinour
response
tolastweek’sSpringBudget,themeasuresimplementedintherelativelylow-keybudgetareunlikelytounlocktheUK’sgrowthandproductivityproblems.Toescapethelow-growthtrap,structuralchangesareneeded,suchasanincreaseinpublicinvestment,particularlyininfrastructure,educationandhealth–whichwouldalsosupportgrowthinbusinessinvestment.
Figure1-UKMonthlyGDP
-3-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Economicsetting
InourpreviousGDPtracker,publishedinJanuary,weobservedthatGDPcontractedby0.3percentinthefourthquarterof2023relativetothepreviousquarter,generatedbycontractionsinallmainsectors.Lookingatthelonger-termpicture,GDPgrowthhasbeennearzerosinceearly2022.Thisoutlookforeconomicgrowthisquitelowbyhistoricalstandards(Figure2).
Figure2-UKGDPgrowthtrends
Source:ONS,NIESRcalculations
Today’sdatasuggestthatmonthlyGDPgrewby0.2percentinJanuary,followingacontractionof0.1percentinDecember.Thismonthlyfigurewasmainlydrivenbyincreasingoutputinconstructionandservices,particularlyretailandwholesaling–withconsumersoptimisingretailspendingoverthefestiveperiod.ThisreturntogrowthinJanuarycouldbeaturningpointaftertheUnitedKingdomwasreportedtohaveenteredatechnicalrecessioninthesecondhalfof2023.WeforecastGDPtogrowby0.3percentinthefirstquarterof2024.
Tofurthercontextualisethenear-termoutlookforGDP,figure3comparesspendingandhiringindicatorstopre-pandemiclevels,whilefigure4recordsrecenttrendsinPMIs.HighfrequencycreditanddebitcardspendingindicatorsbegantheirseasonaluptickinNovember,peakingon22December,andplummetedthereafter–asisexpectedseasonally.Atthesametime,theservicesPMIcontinuestosuggestgrowthintheservicesector,thoughitfellslightlyfrom54.3inJanuaryto53.8inFebruary.Further,therecentONSretailsalesdatasuggestthatretailssalesvolumesreboundedby3.4percentinJanuary,followingarecordfallof3.3percentinDecember2023.TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKCompositePMI–whichcombinescomparableservicesandmanufacturingindices–increasedmarginallyfrom52.9inJanuaryto53inFebruary.Itisencouragingthatoverall,private-sectoroutputshowedsignsofexpansionin
-4-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Februaryfollowingayearmarkedbysubduedgrowth.Takentogether,theseearlyindicatorssuggestthat,thoughGDPgrowthwassubduedin2023,wecanbecautiouslyoptimisticthatGDPwillgrowin2024.
Figure3-Spendingandhiringindicators(weeklyindices)
Notes:(a)EnglandandWales.Debitandcreditcards(CHAPSbased):IndexFebruary2020=100,abackward
lookingseven-dayrollingaverage,non-seasonallyadjusted,nominalprices.Jobadverts:IndexFebruary2020=
100,weeklyaverage.EPCcertificates:IndexFebruary2020=100,four-weekrollingaverage,adjustedfortimingofholidays.
Source:ONS,BoE,Adzuna,MHCLG,NIESR
Figure4-RecenttrendsinPMIs
Sources:RefinitivDatastream,S&P
-5-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
NewsinlatestONSdata
ThemonthlyGDPdataforJanuarywerebetterthanwewereexpectinginlastmonth’sTracker,growingby0.2percentcomparedtoourforecastof0.1percentgrowth.GDPcontractedby0.1percentinthethreemonthstoJanuary,inlinewithourpreviousforecast.
Figure5-UKGDPgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)
Figure6showsaheatmapofthedatasurprisesacrosssectorsinthemonthlydata,relativetolastmonth’sGDPTracker,highlightingthesectorswherethesurprisesarelargerelativetothevolatilityoftheoutputdata.
Businessservicesandfinance
Government
Distribution,HotelsandRestaurantsTransport,StorageandCommunication
Manufacturing
Electricity
Extraction
WaterSupply,Sewerage,WasteManagement
Construction
Agriculture
Figure6-Surprisesinmonthlydata
12/2201/2302/2303/2304/2305/2306/2307/2308/2309/2310/2311/2312/2301/24
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.8
0.2
-0.5
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-0.3
0.5
-1.0
0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.4
-0.7
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.6
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
-0.6
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.3
-0.8
0.7
-0.4
0.3
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.3
1.0
-0.9
-0.3
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
0.3
-0.5
0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.7
-1.0
-0.6
0.4
-0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-0.5
-0.4
-1.8
-0.4
-0.8
-0.5
-1.1
-1.1
0.9
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
2.0
1.0
belowexpectationaboveexpectation
2
1
-3
-10
Note:Cellsshowforecasterrorsasafractionofthestandarddeviationoferrorsforeachseries.
FormoreinformationonourforecastestimatesrelativetoONSdata,pleaseseethe‘HealthWarning’sectionbelow.
-6-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Sectoraldetail
GDPcontractedinthethreemonthstoJanuary,drivenbycontractionsintheconstructionandmanufacturingsectors,withnogrowthintheservicessectortooffsetthesedeclines(Figure7).
Ourforecastforthefirstquarterof2024seestheservicesectordrivinggrowth.
Figure7-ContributionstoquarterlyGDPgrowth(percentagepoints)
Services(80percentofGDP)
Thesurveybalancespointtoimprovedactivityintheservicessectoratthestartof2024,asshownbythesurveyindicatorsinfigures4and8.TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKServicesPMIreportedabalanceof53.8inFebruary,decreasingslightlyfrom54.3inJanuary.Surveyrespondentscitedincreaseddemandinthissector,asnotedbyincreasesinnewordervolumesandtotalordervolumes,partiallyresultingfromrisingbusinessandconsumerconfidence.ThePMIreportnotesthatsomefirmsalsocitedtheprospectoflowerinterestratesasafactordrivingaturnaroundincustomerdemandandincreasedconfidence.
Altogether,weforecastgrowthof0.2percentintheservicessectorinthefirstquarterof2024.
-7-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Figure8-ONSservicesectorgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)comparedwithswathe
ofbusinesssurveybalances(standardised)
Note:TheshadedswatheshowsthehighestandlowestvalueseachmonthofarangeofbusinesssurveybalancesthathavebeenstandardisedsothattheyhavethesamemeanandstandarddeviationasthequarterlygrowthoftheONSseries.
Source:ONS,CBI,Markit,BankofEnglandAgents,EC,NIESRcalculations.
Construction(sixpercentofGDP)
TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKConstructionPMIsurveyregisteredanincreasefrom48.8inJanuaryto49.7inFebruary,itshighestlevelsinceAugust2023andonlymarginallybelowtheneutral50(whichindicatescontractingoutput).Nonetheless,thePMIbalancestillmarksthesixthconsecutivemonththisbalanceregistersbelowtheneutral50.Housebuildingsawthebiggestturnaroundinbusinessactivity,recordinganindexof49.8,upfrom44.2.SurveyrespondentsnotedthatimprovedmarketconditionsandincreasedclientconfidenceledtothisspurinactivityinFebruary,withtotalnewworkincreasingforthefirsttimeinsixmonths.Thatthisoccurredwhileinterestratesremainattheirpeakisoptimisticfortheinterest-sensitiveconstructionsector.
Weforecastgrowthinthissectortoflatlineinthefirstquarterof2024.
Production(14percentofGDP)
Weforecastproductionsectoroutputtogrowby0.2percentinfirstquarterof2024,thoughoutputinthissectorisvolatileanddifficulttopredictwithaccuracyonaquarterlybasis.Theproductionsectorcomprisesmanufacturing;miningandquarrying(whichincludesoilandgasextraction);electricity,gas,steamandairconditioning;andwatersupplyandsewerage.The
-8-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
largestofthesesectorsaremanufacturing,accountingfor10percentofGDP,andminingandquarrying,accountingfor1percentofGDP.
Manufacturing
TheS&PGlobal/CIPSUKmanufacturingPMIroseslightlyfrom47inJanuaryto47.5inFebruary,representingthe19thconsecutivemonththissectorhascontracted.Thissustaineddeclinehasbeendrivenbyacontinuingcombinationofweakdomesticandexportdemand,tightfinancialconditions,erodingconsumerconfidence,andapreferenceforreducedinventoryholdings(asacashflow-improvingmeasure).Indeed,contractionswereregisteredforfouroutofthefivePMIsubcomponents(neworders,output,employmentandstocksofpurchases),indicatingtheextenttowhichthissectorremainssubdued.
However,weexpecttoseethissectorgrowby0.7percentinthefirstquarterof2024relativetothepreviousquarter.
Miningandquarrying
Miningandquarrying(extraction)isasmallbuterraticcomponentofindustrialproductionthatcanhaveaninfluenceonoverallGDPgrowth.Weforecastthissectortocontractby1.9percentinthefirstquarterof2024.
Figure9-ONSmanufacturingsectorgrowth(3monthsonprevious3months,percent)
comparedwithswatheofbusinesssurveybalances(standardised)
Note:TheshadedswatheshowsthehighestandlowestvalueseachmonthofarangeofbusinesssurveybalancesthathavebeenstandardisedsothattheyhavethesamemeanandstandarddeviationasthequarterlygrowthoftheONSseries.
Source:ONS,CBI,Markit,BankofEnglandAgents,EC,NIESRcalculations.
-9-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Table1-SummaryTableofGDPgrowth(2019=100)
IndexofServices-Components
IndexofProduction-Components
2019=100
GDPindex
Indexof
Services
Business
servicesand
finance
Governmentandotherservices
Distribution,HotelsandRestaurants
Transport,Storage
and
Communications
IndexofProduction
Manufacturing
Electricity,
gas,steamand
air
conditioning
MiningandQuarrying
WaterSupply,
Sewerageand
Waste
Management
Indexof
Construction
Agriculture
Latestweights
1000
796
338
220
134
103
135
102
15
6
13
62
7
Jan-23
102.5
104.0
104.9
101.6
100.4
110.8
94.0
100.3
63.4
64.7
105.8
104.4
85.5
Feb-23
102.6
104.0
105.2
101.7
100.1
109.5
93.9
100.3
62.4
67.7
104.2
107.1
85.6
Mar-23
102.2
103.5
105.0
102.0
98.5
108.0
94.6
100.9
64.5
65.6
106.6
106.9
85.6
Apr-23
102.4
103.7
104.9
101.9
99.7
108.4
94.8
101.5
63.3
65.6
104.6
106.1
85.5
May-23
102.1
103.6
104.5
102.5
99.1
108.4
93.9
101.0
60.2
65.8
102.7
105.8
85.5
Jun-23
102.9
103.8
104.5
103.0
99.8
108.9
96.4
104.2
61.5
64.9
104.1
107.5
85.5
Jul-23
102.3
103.4
104.4
102.6
99.4
106.7
95.4
102.9
61.8
64.8
102.9
107.0
85.6
Aug-23
102.3
103.5
104.6
102.8
99.4
106.9
95.1
102.4
62.2
66.7
101.3
104.5
85.7
Sep-23
102.3
103.5
104.3
103.4
99.0
106.9
95.0
102.0
64.0
64.7
102.6
104.5
85.8
Oct-23
101.8
103.2
104.3
102.6
99.0
106.0
93.7
100.7
60.9
63.6
103.6
104.5
85.8
Nov-23
102.1
103.4
104.4
102.8
99.3
106.8
94.2
101.5
60.8
63.9
102.5
104.5
85.8
Dec-23
102.0
103.3
104.8
102.3
98.0
107.1
94.7
102.3
61.5
62.7
102.1
104.5
85.8
Jan-24
102.2
103.5
104.6
102.8
99.2
106.6
94.5
102.3
61.8
61.9
99.9
104.5
86.0
Feb-24
102.2
103.5
104.9
102.8
98.9
107.2
94.3
102.2
61.2
62.3
100.7
104.5
86.3
Mar-24
102.3
103.6
105.1
102.7
98.9
107.5
94.4
102.2
61.7
62.4
101.1
104.5
86.5
Percentagechange,3monthsonprevious3months
Jan-23
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.4
0.5
-5.6
0.3
0.6
-0.4
Feb-23
0.3
0.3
0.5
-0.4
-0.1
1.1
0.0
0.6
1.2
-9.3
0.0
0.8
-0.1
Mar-23
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.8
1.2
0.1
0.6
1.4
-8.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
Apr-23
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.7
-0.9
-0.3
0.4
0.9
0.6
-4.4
-0.6
1.2
0.1
May-23
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
1.0
-1.0
-1.0
0.5
0.9
-0.9
-2.1
-0.6
0.3
0.0
Jun-23
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.7
-0.1
-0.8
0.9
1.7
-2.8
-0.9
-1.6
0.3
-0.1
Jul-23
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
0.8
0.0
-0.6
0.8
1.8
-3.5
-1.7
-1.8
0.1
0.0
Aug-23
0.2
0.0
-0.3
0.7
0.4
-0.7
1.3
2.0
-1.3
-0.3
-1.8
0.1
0.1
Sep-23
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.5
-0.3
-1.6
0.1
0.2
1.7
-0.1
-1.5
-1.0
0.2
Oct-23
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
-1.3
-0.7
-1.0
2.0
-0.3
-0.7
-2.1
0.3
Nov-23
-0.4
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.9
-1.4
-1.7
0.1
-2.1
0.2
-1.7
0.2
Dec-23
-0.3
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.5
-0.2
-1.0
-0.9
-2.6
-3.0
0.5
-0.8
0.1
Jan-24
-0.1
0.0
0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
-0.1
0.3
-1.6
-3.3
-1.0
0.0
0.1
Feb-24
0.0
0.1
0.4
-0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.2
0.9
-0.7
-2.7
-2.0
0.0
0.3
Mar-24
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.7
0.7
-1.9
-2.1
0.0
0.5
Percentagechange,monthonsamemonthinpreviousyear
Jan-23
1.1
1.5
2.3
-0.5
-0.1
4.3
-2.5
-1.9
-1.6
-15.7
-0.8
3.2
0.6
Feb-23
0.6
0.8
2.3
-0.9
-2.1
2.1
-2.3
-1.5
-3.2
-12.1
-2.1
5.8
0.0
Mar-23
0.2
0.2
1.7
-1.1
-3.1
1.5
-1.3
-0.5
1.7
-15.4
0.1
3.5
-0.3
Apr-23
0.6
0.7
1.5
0.8
-2.8
2.2
-0.9
0.8
-1.4
-16.9
-3.3
2.9
-0.5
May-23
-0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.8
-2.6
1.2
-2.1
-0.3
-4.7
-17.0
-3.4
0.3
-0.7
Jun-23
1.4
1.1
0.5
2.8
-1.2
2.7
1.5
4.1
-3.5
-16.1
-3.7
4.6
-0.8
Jul-23
0.4
0.2
0.2
2.0
-1.6
-1.5
1.0
3.6
-2.3
-20.1
-3.0
2.8
-0.8
Aug-23
0.3
0.1
0.0
2.0
-1.4
-1.5
1.2
2.9
-0.7
-8.6
-4.7
-0.1
-0.5
Sep-23
0.8
0.7
0.3
2.3
-0.2
-0.6
1.3
2.9
0.9
-13.4
-3.0
0.0
0.1
Oct-23
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
0.9
-1.8
-2.1
-0.5
0.5
-1.6
-12.3
-0.5
-0.7
0.1
Nov-23
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
1.0
-1.4
-1.6
0.2
1.9
-1.7
-14.2
-3.1
-0.9
0.4
Dec-23
0.0
0.2
-0.1
2.1
-1.9
-0.6
0.6
2.3
-3.6
-8.8
-3.3
-1.7
0.4
Jan-24
-0.3
-0.5
-0.3
1.2
-1.2
-3.8
0.5
2.0
-2.5
-4.3
-5.6
0.1
0.6
Feb-24
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
1.1
-1.2
-2.1
0.4
1.9
-2.0
-7.9
-3.3
-2.4
0.8
Mar-24
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.4
-0.4
-0.2
1.3
-4.3
-4.8
-5.2
-2.2
1.0
Percentagechange,monthonpreviousmonth
Jan-23
0.5
0.9
0.0
1.4
0.5
2.9
-0.1
0.3
-0.6
-6.0
0.1
-1.8
0.0
Feb-23
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
-0.3
-1.2
-0.1
0.0
-1.5
4.7
-1.5
2.6
0.1
Mar-23
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
0.3
-1.6
-1.4
0.7
0.6
3.2
-3.1
2.3
-0.2
0.0
Apr-23
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
1.2
0.4
0.2
0.6
-1.8
0.0
-1.9
-0.7
-0.1
May-23
-0.3
-0.1
-0.4
0.6
-0.6
0.0
-0.9
-0.5
-4.9
0.3
-1.8
-0.3
0.0
Jun-23
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.7
0.5
2.7
3.2
2.1
-1.3
1.3
1.6
0.0
Jul-23
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-2.0
-1.0
-1.2
0.6
-0.2
-1.1
-0.5
0.1
Aug-23
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.3
-0.5
0.7
2.9
-1.6
-2.3
0.1
Sep-23
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.6
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
2.9
-3.0
1.3
0.0
0.1
Oct-23
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
-0.8
0.0
-0.8
-1.4
-1.3
-4.8
-1.7
0.9
0.0
0.0
Nov-23
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.8
-0.2
0.5
-1.0
0.0
0.0
Dec-23
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.5
-1.3
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.1
-1.8
-0.4
0.0
0.0
Jan-24
0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.5
1.2
-0.5
-0.2
0.0
0.5
-1.3
-2.2
0.0
0.2
Feb-24
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.6
-0.2
-0.1
-1.1
0.7
0.8
0.0
0.3
Mar-24
0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.3
-10-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Healthwarning
TheNIESRGDPTrackerprovidesarollingmonthlyforecastforGDPgrowth.Ourfirstestimateofgrowthforanyparticularquarterstartsinthefirstmonthofthatquarterandisthenupdatedeachmonthuntilthefirstofficialreleaseinthesecondmonthofthefollowingquarter.So,forexample,ourfirstestimateofgrowthinthefirstquarterof2020waspublishedinJanuaryandthenupdatedfourtimes(inFebruary,March,April,andMay)beforetheONSpublisheditsfirstestimateforthefirstquarterof2020inMay2020.Inotherwords,wepublishfourestimatesofGDPforanyparticularquarterbeforetheofficialreleaseandchangethemasnewevidencebecomesavailable.Figure9showshowourshort-termforecastsforrecentquartershavechangedasnewinformationhasbecomeavailable.
Figure10-EvolutionoftheNIESRquarterlyGDPforecast(3monthsonprevious3months,
percent)
NIESR’sshort-termpredictionsofmonthlyGDPgrowtharebasedonbottom-upanalysisofrecenttrendsinthemonthlysub-componentsofGDP.Thesepredictionsareconstructedbyaggregatingstatisticalmodelforecastsoftensub-componentsofGDP.Thestatisticalmodelsthathavebeendevelopedmakeuseofpasttrendsinthedataaswellassurveyevidencetobuildshort-termpredictionsofthesub-componentsofmonthlyGDP.Theseprovideastatistically-basedguidetocurrenttrendsbasedonthelatestavailabledata.EachmonththesepredictionsareupdatedasnewONSdataandnewsurveysbecomeavailable.Table2showsthegrowthineachsectorforthethreemonthstoJanuary,comparedwiththepreviousthreemonths,againsttheforecastforeachinourFebruaryGDPTracker.
-11-
MonthlyGDPTracker
March24
Table2-3-month-on-3-monthgrowthtoJanuary(percent)
GDP
IndexofServices
Indexof
Production
Manufacturing
Miningand
Quarrying
Indexof
Construction
Forecast
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.1
-2.8
0.0
Outturn
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.3
-3.3
0.0
ItisimportanttostressthatthetimelierNIESRguidetoquarterlyGDPgrowthislessreliablethanthesubsequentONSdatareleasesasitsdatacontentislower,particularlyforestimatesofthecurrentquarterwhichinsomemonthswillbebasedonlyonforecastsratherthanharddata.Tomitigatethisissue,NIESRprovidesaguidetoaverageerrorsbasedonpastperformance.NIESRalsoprovidesclearguidanceonhowthelatestnewshascauseditsestimatesofGDPgrowthinthecurrentandprecedingquartertochangeandtherebyquantifyhowtheshort-termoutlookisbeingaffectedbyrecentdatareleases(see,e.g.,Figure5).
Asthebottom-upmethodologyforproducingestimatesofGDPgrowthforthecurrentandprecedingqu
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明，都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等，如果需要附件，請聯系上傳者。文件的所有權益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙，網頁內容里面會有圖紙預覽，若沒有圖紙預覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經權益所有人同意不得將文件中的內容挪作商業或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫網僅提供信息存儲空間，僅對用戶上傳內容的表現方式做保護處理，對用戶上傳分享的文檔內容本身不做任何修改或編輯，并不能對任何下載內容負責。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權或不適當內容，請與我們聯系，我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準確性、安全性和完整性, 同時也不承擔用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 2025-2030年中國LOWE玻璃產業調研分與運用態勢預測研究報告
- 2025-2030骨骼和關節補品行業市場現狀供需分析及投資評估規劃分析研究報告
- 2025-2030韓國殺菌劑和消毒劑行業市場現狀供需分析及投資評估規劃分析研究報告
- 科研項目保密協議范本
- 2025-2030蔬果汁產業規劃及發展研究報告
- 2025-2030網上支付行業發展分析及投資戰略研究報告
- 綠色交通設施投資造價咨詢合同
- 房屋買賣后續定金協議
- 拍攝活動交通安排協議
- 股權質押法定代表人簽署協議
- 慢性病照護智慧樹知到期末考試答案2024年
- 湖南省常德市臨澧縣2022-2023學年三年級下學期期末語文試卷
- 交投國企招聘筆試真題答案
- 基于PLC的電梯控制系統設計
- 學生不愛寫作業分析報告
- 樓宇電氣系統安全檢查表
- 鋼支撐(鋼管)強度及穩定性驗算
- JGJ 355-2015(2023年版) 鋼筋套筒灌漿連接應用技術規程
- 口暴服務流程
- 帶式輸送機-畢業設計
- 干部履歷表(中共中央組織部2015年制)
評論
0/150
提交評論