風(fēng)險(xiǎn)層次結(jié)構(gòu)根據(jù)上一節(jié)對(duì)XXXX商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目在開(kāi)發(fā)過(guò)程中可能遇到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行的分析，可以對(duì)這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)按照邏輯相關(guān)性進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)構(gòu)層次劃分，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)層次如表所示：投資決策階段R1可行性研究風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R11開(kāi)發(fā)時(shí)機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R12開(kāi)發(fā)區(qū)域選擇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R13投資物業(yè)類型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R14前期準(zhǔn)備階段R2融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R21合同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R22工程招標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R23土地獲取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R24勘測(cè)設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R25前期手續(xù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R26項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段R3工期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R31成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R32質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R33安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R34運(yùn)營(yíng)租售階段R4市場(chǎng)需求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R41營(yíng)銷策劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R42銷售時(shí)機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R43運(yùn)營(yíng)決策機(jī)制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)R44用結(jié)構(gòu)層可以表示如圖：XXXX商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)根據(jù)以上對(duì)XXXX商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別和分析，以及對(duì)其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)的分層本文通過(guò)層次分析法對(duì)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)過(guò)程的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估分析。層次分析法1、構(gòu)造矩陣RRR1R2R3R4R11345R21/3146R31/41/412R41/51/61/21R1R11R12R13R14R111246R121/2124R131/41/212R141/61/41/21R2R21R22R23R24R25R26R21122445R221/211234R231/211234R241/41/21/2122R251/41/31/31/211R261/51/41/41/211R3R31R32R33R34R311235R321/2124R331/31/212R341/51/41/21R4R41R42R43R44R411234R421/2113R431/3113R441/41/31/21

2、層次單排序以及一致性檢驗(yàn)(1)設(shè)定判斷矩陣R,求出判斷矩陣A每列之和，如表所示RR1R2R3R4R11345R21/3146R31/41/412R41/51/61/21每列之和1.78334.41679.514(0.56080.67920.42110.35710.18690.22640.42110.42860.14020.05660.10530.1429j0.11220.03770.05260.0714第一，對(duì)矩陣進(jìn)行歸一化，得出正規(guī)矩陣A'=丿第二，求出正規(guī)矩陣A',每列之和，得到向量B'(2.0182、B'B'=0.44500.2739丿第三，再對(duì)矩陣B'，第三，再對(duì)矩陣B'，排序向量。'0.5045、0.31570.1112.0.0685丿進(jìn)行歸一化，得到向量B，即為R1—R層影響重要程度的B=第四，一致性檢驗(yàn)A.求賦權(quán)和向量AB=/11/31/4J/5AB=/11/31/4J/5311/41/6)(0.5045)'2.2389、0.31571.33970.11120.4532丿0.0685丿、0.2776丿4411/2621求出入max入max=(AB)/n*B+(AB)/n*B+....+(AB)/n*B)1122n=2.2389/4*0.5045+1-3397/4*0.3157+0.4532/(4*0.1112)+0.2776/4*0.06854.2024計(jì)算一致性指標(biāo)CICI=(入max-n)/(n-1)=(4.2024-4)/30.0675求出一致性率CR,因?yàn)閚=4，查的RI=0.9CR=CI/RI=0.0675/0.9=0.075<0.1由此可見(jiàn)R判斷矩陣具有滿意一致性(0.5217(0.52170.53330.53330.4615、0.26090.26670.2667A1'0.26090.26670.2667A1'=0.13040.13330.13330.30770.1538(0.08700.06670.0667(0.08700.06670.06670.0769丿(2)設(shè)定判斷矩陣R1，求出判斷矩陣A1每列之和，如表所示R1R11R12R13R14R111246R121/2124R131/41/212R141/61/41/21每列之和1.91673.75007.50013第一，對(duì)矩陣進(jìn)行歸一化，得出正規(guī)矩陣第二，求出正規(guī)矩陣A',每列之和，得到向量B1'(2.0498、1.1020B1'=0.5508(0.2973丿第三，再對(duì)矩陣B1'，進(jìn)行歸一化，得到向量B1，即為R11—R14層影響重要程度的排序向量。(0.5125'0.2755B1=0.1377(0.0743丿第四，一致性檢驗(yàn)

A.求賦權(quán)和向量/1246、'0.5125、'2.0601、1/21240.27551.1044A1B1=1/41/.2120.1377=0.5522J/61/41/21丿、0.0743丿、0.2975丿B.求出入max入max=2.0610/4*0.5125+1.1044/4*0.27755+0.5522/4*0.1377+0.2975/4*0.0743=4.0106計(jì)算一致性指標(biāo)CICI=(入max-n)/(n-1)=(4.0106-4)/(4-1)=0.0035求出一致性率CR,因?yàn)閚=4，查的RI=0.9CR=CI/RI=0.0035/0.9=0.0039<0.1由此可見(jiàn)R判斷矩陣具有滿意一致性A2'A2'='0.37040.39340.39340.40.28570.2941、0.18520.19670.19670.20.21430.23530.18520.19670.19670.20.21430.23530.09260.09840.09840.10.14290.11760.09260.06560.06560.50.07140.0588、0.07410.04920.04920.50.07140.0588丿第二，求出正規(guī)矩陣A2'，每列之和，得到向量B2'(3)設(shè)定判斷矩陣R2,求出判斷矩陣A2每列之和，如表所示R2R21R22R23R24R25R26R21122445R221/211234R231/211234R241/41/21/2122R251/41/31/31/211R261/51/41/41/211每列之和2.75.08335.0833101417第一，對(duì)A2矩陣進(jìn)行歸一化，得出正規(guī)矩陣'2.1370、1.22821.2282B2'=0.64990.404010.3527丿第三，再對(duì)矩陣B2'，進(jìn)行歸一化，得到向量B2，即為R21—R24層影響重要程度的排序向量。'0.3562、0.20470.2047B2=0.1083r122r12241/2112A2B2=1/21121/41/21/211/41/31/31/2J/51/41/41/20.0673、0.0588丿第四，一致性檢驗(yàn)A.求賦權(quán)和向B.求出入max45]r0.3562、f2.1714'340.20471.2412340.20471.2412220.10830.6544110.06730.405811丿、0.0588丿、0.3539丿入max=2.1714/6*0.3526+1.2412/6*0.0247+1.2412/6*0.0247+0.6544/6*0.1803+0.4058/6*0.0673+0.3539/6*0.0588=6.0524計(jì)算一致性指標(biāo)CICI=(入max-n)/(n-1)=(6.0524-6)/(6-1)=0.0105求出一致性率CR,因?yàn)閚=6，查的RI=1.24CR=CI/RI=0.0105/1,.24=0.0085<0.1由此可見(jiàn)R判斷矩陣具有滿意一致性2

(0.49180.2459A3'=0.163910.09840.53330.26670.13330.0667(0.49180.2459A3'=0.163910.09840.53330.26670.13330.06670.46150.30770.15380.07690.4167'0.33330.16670.0833丿R3R31R32R33R34R311235R321/2124R331/31/212R341/51/41/21每列之和2.03333.756.512第一，對(duì)A3矩陣進(jìn)行歸一化，得出正規(guī)矩陣第二，求出正規(guī)矩陣A3'，每列之和，得到向量B3'(1.9033\1.1536B3'=0.6177、0.3253丿第三，再對(duì)矩陣B3'，進(jìn)行歸一化，得到向量B3，即為R31—R34層影響重要程度的排序向量。(0.4758、0.2884B3=0.1544、0.0813丿第四，一致性檢驗(yàn)A.求賦權(quán)和向(1235「(0.4758、j.9233「1/21240.28841.1603A3B3=1/31/2120.1544=0.6198J/51/41/21丿、0.08。0.3258B.求出入max入max=1.9233/4*0.4758+1.1603/4*0.2884+0.6189/4*0.1544+0.3258/4*0.0813=4.0212

C.計(jì)算一致性指標(biāo)CICI=(Amax-n)/(n-l)=(4.0212-4)/(4-1)=0.0071D.求出一致性率CR,因?yàn)閚=4，查的RI=0.9CR=CI/RI=0.007l/0.9=0.0079<0.l由此可見(jiàn)R3判斷矩陣具有滿意一致性(5)設(shè)定判斷矩陣R4,求出判斷矩陣A4每列之和，如表所示R4R41R42R43R44R411234R421/2113R431/3113R441/41/31/21每列之和2.08334.33335.333311第一，對(duì)A4矩陣進(jìn)行歸一化，得出正規(guī)矩陣0.3636、0.3636、0.27270.27270.0909丿0.24000.23080.1875A4=‘10.12000.07690.0625‘10.12000.07690.0625第二，求出正規(guī)矩陣A4'，每列之和，得到向量B4''1.8676、‘0.9310B4'=‘‘‘0.8510、0.3510丿第三，再對(duì)矩陣B4'，進(jìn)行歸一化，得到向量B4，即為R41—R44層影響重要程度的排序向量。(0.4669、‘0.2328B4=‘‘0.212810.0876丿第四，一致性檢驗(yàn)A.求賦權(quán)和向量/1234、'0.4669、'1.9213'1/21130.23280.9419A4B4=1/31130.2128=0.8640J/41/31/31丿0.0876丿、0.3528丿求出入max入max=19213/4*0.4669+0.9419/4*0.2328+0.8640/4*0.2128+0.3528/4*0.0876=4.0621計(jì)算一致性指標(biāo)CICI=（入max-n）/（n-1）=（4.0621-4）、（4-1）=0.0207求出一致性率CR,因?yàn)閚=4，查的RI=0.9CR=CI/RI=0.0207/0.9=0.23<0.1由此可見(jiàn)R4判斷矩陣具有滿意一致性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)層次總排序1，根據(jù)以上計(jì)算的各層權(quán)重得出每層權(quán)重總排序，如表所示：層次R1R2R3R4總排序Z0.50450.31570.11120.0685R110.51250.2586R120.27550.1390R130.13770.0695R140.07430.0375R210.35620.1125R220.20470.0646R230.20470.0646R240.10830.0342R250.06730.0212R260.05880.0186R310.47580.0529R320.28840.0321R330.15440.0172R340.08130.0090R410.46690.0320R420.23280.0159R430.21280.0146R440.08760.0060總排序的一致性檢驗(yàn)CI=R1*CI+R2*CI+R3*CI+R4*CI1234=0