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ona

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2023Therightof

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avenuedelaPaixP.O.Box2300Tel.:+41(0)227308403Email:

publications@CH-1211Geneva2,SwitzerlandNOTEThe

designations

employed

and

the

presentation

of

material

in

this

publication

do

not

imply

the

expression

of

any

opinion

whatsoever

on

the

part

ofWMO

or

IRENA

concerning

the

legal

status

of

any

country,

territory,

city

or

area,

or

of

its

authorities,

or

concerning

the

delimitation

of

itsfrontiersor

boundaries.Themention

of

specificcompanies

or

products

does

not

implythat

theyare

endorsed

or

recommendedby

WMO

orIRENAinpreferencetoothers

of

asimilar

naturewhicharenotmentionedor

advertised.The

findings,

interpretations

and

conclusions

expressed

are

those

of

the

authors

alone

and

do

not

necessarily

reflect

those

of

WMO,

IRENAortheir

Members.ContentsForeword..............................................................................................................4Executivesummary

...............................................................................................6Acknowledgments..................................................................................................81Globalperspectiveon

renewableenergyresourcesanddemandin2022................91.1Introduction

.............................................................................................9Windpowercapacityfactor.......................................................................10Solarpowercapacityfactor

......................................................................13Hydropowerproxyindicator......................................................................15Energydemandproxyindicator.................................................................181.21.31.41.523Regionalperspectiveon

renewableenergyresourcesanddemandin2022..........212.1Africa.....................................................................................................21Asia.......................................................................................................24SouthAmerica........................................................................................262.22.3Potentialfutureclimaterisksforrenewableenergyanddemand.........................283.1Windpower............................................................................................28Solarphotovoltaicpower..........................................................................28Hydropower............................................................................................29Demand.................................................................................................313.23.33.44Conclusions..................................................................................................324.1

Discussion

onthe

importanceof

earlywarningsystems

...............................324.1.14.1.2Detection,observation,

monitoring,analysisand

forecasting..................32Preparednessandresponsecapabilities................................................334.2Policyfor

potentialgrowthof

renewableenergy

inthe

contextof

climatevariability

................................................................................334.3Keymessages.........................................................................................34References

.........................................................................................................36Annex.Methodology

............................................................................................38Windpowercapacityfactorcalculation................................................................38Solarphotovoltaicpower

capacityfactorcalculation..............................................40Hydropowerproxy............................................................................................41Energydemandproxy.......................................................................................42ForewordThe

data

and

analysis

in

this

report

represent

a

significant

milestone

in

fulfilling

the

jointcommitmentbytheWorldMeteorological

Organization(WMO)andtheInternationalRenewableEnergy

Agency

(IRENA)

to

advance

the

understanding

of

renewable

energy

resource

potential,anditsintricaterelationshipwithclimatevariabilityandchange.Renewable

energy,

primarily

driven

by

the

dynamic

forces

of

solar

radiation,

wind

and

water,has

surged

to

the

forefront

of

global

power

generation.

This

global

energy

transition

is

a

powerfulcatalyst

for

mitigating

climate

change,

safeguarding

our

planet

and

ensuring

a

prosperous

futureforgenerationstocome.The

numbers

speak

for

themselves.

In

2022,

83%

of

new

power

generation

capacity

was

fromrenewable

energy.

Such

robust

expansion

represents

considerable

progress

in

achieving

thegoals

of

the

Paris

agreement

to

limit

global

surface

temperature

increase

to

1.5°C

abovepre-industrial

levels

and

substantially

reduce

energy-related

greenhouse

gas

emissions

by

2030.To

meet

the

1.5°C

goal,

global

renewable

power

capacity

must

triple

by

2030,

while

energyefficiencyimprovementsmustdouble.This

report

highlights

the

inherent

links

between

renewable

energy

sources

and

weather

andclimate

conditions.

The

critical

nexus

between

climate

variability

and

renewable

energy

requiresa

comprehensive

understanding

of

how

meteorological

variables

impact

the

potential

capacityof

wind,

solar

and

hydropower.

Climate

influences

not

only

energy

supply

but

also

demand,particularlyinthe

contextof

heatingandcooling.This

publication

explores

these

intricate

connections

in

detail,

at

both

the

global

and

regionallevels,

by

considering

anomalous

behaviours

of

energy

indicators

(onshore

wind

power,

solarphotovoltaic

(PV)

power,

hydropower

and

energy

demand

proxies

–

called

“energy

degree

days”)occurring

in

2022,

and

comparing

them

to

the

current

30-year

standard

climatology

referenceperiod

(1991–2020).

The

changes

in

these

indicators

for

2022

compared

to

the

30-yearclimatological

average

offer

a

valuable

insight

into

the

role

of

climate

in

renewable

energy

supplyanddemand.Beyond

climate

trends,

the

analysis

emphasizes

the

importance

of

considering

climate

variabilityin

the

contexts

of

renewable

energy

operations,

management,

planning

and

investment.

Thekey

messages

of

this

report

represent

an

invitation

to

policymakers,

scientists

and

stakeholdersto

address

the

synergy

between

meteorology

and

renewable

energy.

It

is

at

this

intersectionthat

IRENA

and

WMO

expertise

sets

the

stage

for

a

rigorous

evaluation

that

will

empowerpolicymakers,

energy

planners,

resource

managers

and

grid

operators

to

grasp

the

magnitudeandpatternsof

observedvariationsincleanenergysupplyanddemand.This

effort

also

supports

the

reorganization

of

power

systems

into

a

“dual

procurement”

structure,which

can

effectively

optimize

the

acquisition

of

high-value

variable

renewable

resources

andthe

flexible

deploymentofresources.

It

is

also

aligned

with

the

activitiestaking

place

within

theEarly

Warnings

for

All

initiative,

which

is

co-led

by

WMO.

By

assisting

the

understanding

ofrelevant

climate

drivers

and

their

associated

large-scale

atmospheric

patterns,

stakeholders

canbetteranticipateclimate-relatedimpactson

renewablepower

generationanddemand.2022YEAR

IN

REVIEW:CLIMATE-DRIVENGLOBAL

RENEWABLEENERGYPOTENTIALRESOURCESANDENERGYDEMAND5We

extend

our

gratitude

and

appreciation

tothelead

authors

from

both

organizations

for

theirexceptional

efforts

in

compiling

this

report,

as

well

as

to

all

the

experts

and

contributors

for

theirunwavering

support

and

valuable

inputs.

We

hope

that

this

report

will

mark

the

inaugural

editionofaseriesof

suchpublicationsintheyearstocome.PetteriTaalasSecretary-GeneralFrancesco

La

CameraDirector-GeneralWorldMeteorological

Organization(WMO)InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)ExecutivesummaryRenewable

energy

(RE)

dominates

new

capacity

additions,

driven

by

solar

and

wind.The

global

total

installed

capacity

of

renewable

power,

and

its

share

in

the

electricity

grid,has

been

steadily

increasing

over

the

past

two

decades.

Today,

some

30%1of

global

powergeneration

is

renewable,

due

to

rapid

deployment

in

the

past

decade.

In

2022

alone,

83%

ofnewcapacitywasrenewable,withsolarandwindaccountingfor

most

additions.Suchanincreaseiskey

to

achieving

decarbonized

energy

systems

by

2050,

with

an

accompanying

steep

anddecisivedecline

of

fossilfuel

consumption.More

decisive

actions

are

needed

to

further

accelerate

the

transition

of

energysystems

to

dramatically

reduce

the

greenhouse

gases

emissions

of

the

energy

sectorby

2030

in

line

with

1.5

°C

pathways.

To

achieve

the

most

ambitious

climate

target

of

theParis

Agreement,

global

RE

capacity

needs

to

be

tripled

and

the

rate

of

energy

efficiencyimprovementsdoubledby2030.Power

generation

from

renewables,

such

as

solar,

wind

and

hydropower,

which

areaddressed

in

this

report,

is

both

driven

and

impacted

by

climatic

factors.

Theseresources

play

an

essential

role

in

the

global

energy

transition.

But

these

RE

resources

arelargely

driven

by

climatic

factors,

so

it

is

critical

to

understand

the

effects

of

climate

variabilityand

changes

in

relevant

variables

on

RE

generation.

On

the

other

hand,

climate

also

impactsenergydemand,especiallyrelatedto

heatingandcooling.The

present

report

analyses

the

year

2022

compared

with

30-year

climatology

data

tooffer

insights

into

the

effects

of

climate

variability

and

change

on

selectedtechnologies

and

energy

demand.

The

effects

of

climate

variability

and

change

are

presentedby

evaluating

the

changes

in

four

energy

indicators,

namely,

wind

power

capacity

factor

(CF),solar

photovoltaic

(PV)

CF,

a

hydropower

proxy

and

an

energy

demand

proxy

(called

energydegree

days,

EDD)

for

2022,

compared

with

the

standard

30-year

average,

1991–2020.

Thiscomparison

allows

us

to

identify

specific

inter-annual

features

that

occurred

in

2022,

with

respectto

“average”

conditions.

The

main

measure

considered

is

the

percentage

anomaly

(for

2022compared

with1991–2020).This

assessment

is

an

initial

step

towards

a

more

rigorous

evaluation

on

the

role

ofclimate

on

RE

supply

and

demand.

Such

information

can

be

used

both

as

a

retrospectiveanalysis

and

to

aid

future

decision-making.

Ultimately,

policymakers,

energy

planners

andresource

managers,

as

well

as

grid

operators,

will

need

comprehensive

data

and

analysis

to

fullyunderstandthe

magnitude

andpatternsof

observedvariationsinresourcesanddemand.Keyinsightshave

been

identified:(i)

All

assessed

indicators

show

noticeable

changes

due

to

effects

of

climatevariabilityand

change,

albeit

differing

by

technology

and

country.

The

four

energyindicators

assessed

(wind

power

CF,

solar

PV

CF,

a

hydropower

proxy

and

the

energydemand

proxy

EDD),

presented

as

country

averages,

display

marked

percentageanomalies

for

both

annual

and

monthly

averages.

Aside

from

solar

PV,

which

displayslimited

variability

of

less

than

10%

on

average

annually,

the

overall

inter-annual

and

intra-annual

variabilityis

pronounced;

forinstance,

itislargerthan

15%for

windpower

CF

formanycountries.(ii)

Improving

our

understanding

of

climate

drivers

and

their

interactions

withrenewable

resources

is

vital

for

resilience

and

the

efficiency

of

energy

systemsand

their

transition.

It

is

critical

to

consider

key

climate

drivers

such

as

the

El

Ni?oSouthern

Oscillation

(ENSO),

as

these

normally

explain

a

large

portion

of

the

observed1REN21,

Renewables

2023

Global

Status

Report:

Energy

Supply,

/gsr-2023/modules/energy_supply/01_energy_supply.2022YEAR

IN

REVIEW:CLIMATE-DRIVENGLOBAL

RENEWABLEENERGYPOTENTIALRESOURCESANDENERGYDEMAND7variability;

accurately

predicting

them

makes

it

possible

to

manage

energy

resources

moreefficientlythanwouldbe

possible

withoutsuch

knowledge.(iii)

Mainstreaming

climate

variability,

in

addition

to

climate

change,

should

be

apriority

for

improved

operation,

management

and

planning

of

energy

resources.This

could

lead

to

the

establishment

of

early

warning

systems

to

help

better

manageenergy

load,

resources

and

maintenance.

Moreover,

this

can

inform

energy

infrastructuremodernization

and

expansion,

and

trigger

the

necessary

innovation

across

technologies,marketsandpolicies.(iv)

Adapting

market

structures

is

central

to

providing

the

necessary

flexibility

duringthe

transitional

phase

from

centralized

to

decentralized

power

systems.

Powersystemorganizational

structuresthatallowboththe

procurement

of

the

highestvaluesetof

variable

renewable

resources

and

the

deployment

of

flexibility

resources

are

necessary.A“dualprocurement”system

canbe

an

effectiveavenueinthis

regard.(v)

Developing

countries,

especially

in

Africa

where

energy

access

remains

a

keypriority,

can

adapttheir

systems

toharness

renewable

potential

with

the

benefitofknowledgeonclimate

variability.REisparticularlyunderdevelopedinAfrica,whichaccounts

for

only

2%of

global

capacity

despite

its

abundant

potentials.

RE

is

essential

tosupport

the

continent’s

development

and

industrialization.

For

effective

implementationand

utilization

of

RE,

it

is

important

to

combine

knowledge

of

potential

resources

andexistinginfrastructures,butalsoclimatevariabilityasdiscussedhere.(vi)

Comprehensive

and

systematic

energy

data

collection

and

sharing

are

essentialto

improving

knowledge

and

understanding

of

the

impact

of

climate

variabilityandchange

onenergysupply

anddemand.Theenergyindicators

presented

herearesimplified

with

respect

to

actual,

more

representative

ones.

The

computation

of

moreaccurate

indicators

requires

more

general

and

systematic

sharing

of

energy

data,

includinginstalledcapacityandactualgeneration.AcknowledgmentsThe

followingpeople

are

thanked

for

theircontributionstothis

publication:Lead

authors:

Alberto

Troccoli

(World

Energy

&

Meteorology

Council

(WEMC)),RobertaBoscolo(WMO),

Hamid

Bastani

(WMO),

Imen

Gherboudj

(IRENA),

AmjadAbdulla

(IRENA),

Ellipse

Rath(IRENA)Other

contributors:

Emanuele

Bianco

(IRENA),

Penny

Boorman

(WEMC),

ChiaraCagnazzo(European

Centre

for

Medium-Range

Weather

Forecasts

(ECMWF)),

Beatriz

Contreras

(WEMC),Kamlesh

Dookayka

(IRENA),

Laurent

Dubus

(Réseau

de

Transport

d’Electricité

(RTE)),TobiasFuchs

(Deutscher

Wetterdienst

(DWD)),

Christopher

Hewitt

(WMO),

Kristian

Horvath(Dr?avni

hidrometeorolo?ki

zavod

(DHMZ)),

Frank

Kaspar

(DWD),

Juerg

Luterbacher

(WMO),Elizabeth

Press

(IRENA),

Johan

Stander

(WMO),

Nir

Stav

(WMO),

Elena

Manaenkova

(WMO),BinuParthan(IRENA)Graphic

designers:

Elena

Restivo,

Giovanni

Aldrigo,

Stefano

Campostrini(Inside

Climate

Service)1Globalperspectiveon

renewableenergyresourcesanddemand

in

20221.1IntroductionAccording

to

the

Intergovernmental

Panel

on

Climate

Change

(IPCC),

decarbonizing

energysystems

by

2050

will

require

a

steep

and

decisive

decline

in

fossil

fuel

consumption.

Concreteactionsareneededin

thenearterm(2030timehorizon)

totransition

ourenergy

systemsfromcarbon-intensive

to

renewable,

clean

sources.

Toachieve

the

most

ambitious

climate

target

oftheParis

Agreement,globalrenewableenergy(RE)capacityneedstobe

tripled

andthe

rateofenergyefficiencyimprovementsdoubledby2030(IRENA,2023c).Power

generation

from

RE

resources

(here

specifically

wind,

solar

and

hydropower)

plays

anessential

role

in

the

global

transition

in

line

with

1.5°C

energy

pathways.

As

these

REresourcesare

largely

driven

by

climatic

factors,

it

is

critical

to

understand

the

effect

of

the

variability

ofrelevant

climate

variables

on

renewable

energy

generation.

Climate

influences

demand

forelectricity,

and

energy

consumption

more

generally,

especially

in

relation

to

heating

and

cooling;thisiswhydemandisalsoconsideredhere.Considering

climate

factors,

such

as

climate

variability,

is

all

the

more

important

given

thatglobal

total

installed

capacity

of

wind

and

solar

power,

and

its

share

in

the

electricity

grid,has

been

steadily

increasing

over

the

past

two

decades.

Wind

power

reached

nearly

900GWof

capacity

in

2022,

a

9%

increase

compared

with

2021

(and

a

200%

increase

compared

withten

years

earlier,

2013).

Solar

power

has

been

growing

faster

than

wind

power,

with

installedcapacity

reaching

1055GW

in

2022,

a

22%

increase

compared

with

2021

(650%

comparedwith

2013)

(IRENA,

2023a).

Hydropower

currently

has

a

larger

installed

capacity

than

eitherwind

or

solar

power,

with

about

1

400GW

in

2022,

an

increase

of

2%

compared

with

2021

(22%compared

with

2013).

By

2030,

wind

power

installed

capacity

is

expected

to

reachabout3000GW

(8000GW

by

2050),

solarpower

about5400GW

(18000GWby

2050),

andhydropower

1500GW

(2

500

GW

by

2050)

(IRENA,

2023c).

It

is

worth

noting

that

from

2010to

2019,

there

was

a

sustained

decrease

in

the

unit

cost

of

solar

energy

(–85%)

and

wind

energy(–55%)(IPCC,2022b).Actual

power

generation

depends

on

the

capacity

factors

(CF)

–

namely

the

ratio

between

theaverage

electricity

generated

by

a

power

system

and

its

nominal

rated

(or

maximum)

power.Thus,

in

terms

of

power

produced,

in

2021

(the

latest

figures

available)

hydropower

generated4400TWh,windpower1840TWh,andsolarpower

1

030TWh(IRENA,2023b).The

total

global

electricity

consumption,

from

all

sources,

including

renewables,

was

28500TWhin

2022,

a

2.5%

increase

compared

with

2021

(and

a

25%

increase

compared

with

ten

yearsearlier,

2013)

(EMBER,

2023).

According

to

IRENA

(2023b)

the

percentage

ofelectricityconsumption

met

by

RE

was

27.8%

in

2022,

up

from

27.6%

in

2021.

According

to

theInternational

Energy

Agency

(IEA)

(2023),

demand

is

expected

to

grow

by

slightly

less

than

2%in

2023.

This

moderation

in

growth

compared

with

previous

years

is

strongly

driven

by

decliningelectricity

demand

in

advanced

economies,

which

are

dealing

with

the

ongoing

effects

of

theglobal

energy

crisis

and

slower

economic

growth.

In

2024,

as

expectations

for

the

economicoutlookimprove,globalelectricitydemandgrowthis

forecast

toreboundto

3.3%.10CHAPTER1:

GLOBALPERSPECTIVEON

RENEWABLEENERGYRESOURCES

IN

2022Table

1.

Summary

of

global

installed

capacity

for

wind

power

(WP),

solar

photovoltaic(PV)

and

hydropower

(HP).

The

corresponding

power

generation

is

also

shown

for2021

(the

latest

year

for

which

data

are

available

at

the

time

of

writing).

The

totalglobalenergyconsumptionisreportedinthelastrow.20132021202220302050Capacity

Generation

Capacity

Generation

Capacity

Generation

Capacity

Capacity(GW)300(TWh)(GW)824(TWh)18401030440027800(GW)900(TWh)(GW)300054001500(GW)WP8000180002500SolarPVHP1408601055140011401360Totalenergyconsumption2280028500For

this

publication,

the

RE

generation

potential

and

demand

are

represented

using

relativelysimple

indicators,which

are

presentedmainlyat

the

countrylevel

overthe

whole

globe.Abriefdefinition

of

these

indicators

is

presented

in

the

following

sections

on

onshore

wind

power

(forsimplicity,

this

will

be

referred

to

as

wind

power),

solar

photovoltaic

(PV)

power

(also

referredto

as

solar

power),

hydropower,

and

energy

demand.2Because

the

main

focus

of

this

publicationis

onassessing

the

role

of

climate

variability

onthe

RE

potential

and

energy

demand,

the

reportmainly

considers

anomalous

behaviours

of

these

indicators

in

2022

in

comparison

with

thecurrent

30-year

standard

climatology

reference

period

(1991–2020).

Inother

words,

thepublication

will

highlight

the

main

deviations

that

occurred

in

2022

with

respect

to

1991–2020in

order

to

inform

RE

planners

and

resource

managers,

as

well

as

grid

operators,

about

themagnitude

and

patterns

of

observed

variations

in

resources

and

demand.

Such

an

assessmentcanbe

usefulbothasaretrospectiveanalysisandto

aidfuture

decision-making.In

the

following

sections,

RE

resources

and

demand

are

first

assessed

separately

at

the

globallevel,

and

then

implications

for

their

interactions

are

discussed,

which

is

most

effectively

doneat

the

regional

(continental)

level.

Also,

indicators

are

presented

as

percentage

anomalies

(for2022comparedto

1991–2020),butdependingonthecontext,

othertermssuch

as“variation”,“signal”,“change”orsimply

“anomaly”arealso

usedtodenote“percentage

anomaly”.1.2WindpowercapacityfactorAusefulindicatorofclimate

variabilityistherelativechangeoftheCF

(anomaliesexpressedasa

percentage)

for

a

given

year

compared

with

a

reference

period.

The

global

monthly

wind

powerCF,

as

taken

from

the

IEA

Weather

for

Energy

(WfE)

portal,

is

computed

considering

a

single100m

hub

height

wind

turbine

and

100-m

wind

speed

at

a

spatial

resolution

of

0.25°×0.25°(IEA/CMCC,

2023).3Monthly

wind

power

CF

anomalies

for

2022

relative

to

the

monthly

averageforthe

1991–2020referenceperiod

are

then

calculated.When

averaged

over

the

entire

year

2022,

annual

wind

power

CF

anomalies

display

somerelativelylarge

valuesandnoticeablepatterns,whichaffectthe

generationpotential(Figure

1).For

instance,

several

countries

in

Europe

experienced

a

reduction

of

10%

or

more

in

CF

(negativeanomalies)(see

EuropeanState

ofthe

Climate20224).StrongreductionsinCFarealso

seeninCentral

America

and

Papua

New

Guinea

(more

than

16%),

while

a

moderate

decline

in

CF

isobservedinseveralcountriesin

South

and

South-East

Asia,and

SouthAfrica(between

4%

and8%).

At

the

same

time,

increases

of

8%

or

more

in

CF

(positive

anomalies)

are

observed

inseveral

countries

throughout

the

world,

including

some

countries

in

sub-Saharan

Africa,23Furtherdetails

aboutthe

computationoftheenergyindicatorsareprovidedin