海陸氣相互作用周順武、智海南京信息工程大學大氣科學學院熱帶太平洋海氣相互作用熱帶太平洋海洋一大氣耦合系統的年際變化ENSO■ENSO現象及研究歷史■ENSO發生時大氣海洋變化■ENSO監測■ENSO事件的差異性■ENSO形成的早期信號ENSO對氣候的影響ENSO預測現狀、研究存在的主要問題研究歷史abriefhistoryPeruvianfishermen(15thcentury)periodicwarmingofSsTs(dubbedElNiniobecauseofitsappearancearoundChristmas)causedconsiderablereductionsofanchovyfisheryandseabirdpopulationsSirGilbertWalker(early20thcentury)identificationofthepressurepatternknownastheSouthernOscillation(i.e.pressuredifferencebetweenTahitiandDarwin.australia)Bjerknes(1960s):aneast-westcirculationinthePacificWalkercirculation)canexplaintheeast-westtemperaturegradientinthepacificSatelliteObservations(1960s-present):improvementsintheunderstandingofthechangesinvolvedPhilander:CaneandZebiak(1980s):theoreticaladvancesandmodelingofENSoasacoupledocean-atmospherephenomenonSuarezandSchopf:Battisti(1980s):wavemotionsinthePacificsetuptheoscillation(delayedoscillatorWalker(1923,1924)discoveredtheSouthernOscillation(SO):AseesawinSlpbetweentheWesternandeasternHemispheresWalker'sSOPresentedbyBerlage(1957):CorrelationofglobalSLPwithSLPatDjakarta,IndonesiaEasternpacificIndianWesternpacificThepatterniscenteredintheSouthernHemisphere;ThisiswhyWalkercalleditSOJ.Bjerknes(1969)namedthe"WalkerCirculation"sinceitispartofthemechanismofWalker'sSouthernOscillation(SO)計NAF93IIooWalker’sSOLowSLP「46600碩顧W60苗”520oeWarmp唱缸HG物IDSLPIndianPacificAtlanticColdWaterWateBjerknesalsorecognize