{國際貿易}國際貿易地理知識MapoftheWorldQuestionsGeographyasks:-“Where?”questions(descriptiveinventory)Wherearethingslocated?Whatistheirdistributionacrossthesurfaceoftheearth?-“Why?”and“How?”questions(analyticalapproach)Whyarethingslocatedwheretheyare?Howdodifferentthingsrelatetooneanotherataspecificplace?Howdodifferentplacesrelatetoeachother?Howhavegeographicpatternsandrelationshipschangedovertime?-Whatisgeography?(amoreacademicdefinition)Itisconcernedwithplace,describesthechangingpatternofplaces,andattemptstounravelthemeaningoftheevolvingofsuchpatterns.Itseekstounderstandthephysicalandculturalfeaturesofplacesandtheirnaturalsettingsonthefaceoftheearth.Thespatialdimensioniscentraltogeography.Itusesadistinctivelanguage–thelanguageofmaps.?PartVI–themostinsightful&enlighteningpartthistableprovides:Geographyhelpsustounderstandtheworld,theearthasitwas,itspasttense,toexploretheworldasitis,itspresenttense,andtothinkoftheworldasitmightbe,itsfuturetense.TheCarnegieReportonHigherEducation(1991)setsforththealmostcertaindangersthatexistintheglobalfutureifwefailtoseetheworldasthus:Theworldhasbeeamorecrowded,moreinterconnected,morevolatileandmoreunstableplace.Ifeducationcannothelpstudentsseebeyondthemselvesandbetterunderstandtheinterdependentnatureofourworld,theneachgenerationwillremainignorant,anditscapacitytolivepetentlyandresponsiblywillbedangerouslydiminished.(p.42)Maps1.Somefundamentalconceptsofspaceandlocation1)PropertiesofspaceGeographersconsidervariousdimensionsofspace:One-dimensionalspace,Three-dimensionalspace,Two-dimensionalspacethatcanberepresentedonaplane,Thespatialelementsofpoint,line,andareamaybeusedtodefinethebasicgeographicconceptsofdistance,direction,andconnectivity.2)TwokindsoflocationAbsolutelocation(site)ispositioninrelationtoaconventionalgridsystem,suchaslatitudeandlongitudeorstreetaddresses;Relativelocation(situation)ispositionwithrespecttootherlocations.Itisameasureofconnectivityandaccessibility,anditusuallychangesovertime.Theconceptofrelativelocationisofgreaterinteresttoeconomicgeographersthanabsolutelocation.2.ThelanguageofmapsCartographers&Cartography–agraphicportrayaloflocation1)Scale2)ParallelsofLatitude&MeridiansofLongitudeBothlatitudeandlongitudearemeasuredindegrees,minutes,andseconds.Equator–alatitudeof0Allotherlatitudinallinesareparalleltotheequatorandtoeachotherandthereforearecalledparallels.Everypointonagivenparallelhasthesamelatitude.Placesnorthoftheequatorareinnorthlatitude;orv.s.southlatitude.TheNorthPoleis90N;theSouthPole90S.Placesneartheequatorareinlowlatitude;Placesnearthepoles,highlatitude.TheTropicofCancer,at23.5N,andtheTropicofCapricorn,at23.5S.TheArcticCircle,at66.5N,andtheAntarcticCircle,at66.5S.Placesbetweentropicandcirclelinesaresaidtobeinmiddlelatitude.MeridianofGreenwichorprimemeridian–alongitudeof0Meridiansoflongitudearestraightlinesconnectingthepoles.Everymeridianisdrawnduenorthandsouth.Theyconvergeatthepolesandarefarthestapartattheequator.Placeseast(west)oftheprimemeridianareineast(west)longitude.Themeridianof180,exactlyhalfwayaroundtheworldfromtheprimemeridian,istheotherdividinglinebetweenplaceseastandwestofGreenwich.Thebinationoflatitudeandlongitudegiveusabsolutelocation.3.OurGlobeNorthernHemispherecontainsthebulkoftheworld’slandandmostoftheprincipalcentersofpopulationandindustry,itthereforeiscalledthe“landhemisphere”,constitutes80%oftheworld’stotallandareaandhasapproximately91%oftheworld’spopulation.SouthernHemisphere,or“waterhemisphere”,hasonly20%ofthelandand9%ofthepopulation.4.Differentmaps,differentstandings,&differentperspectivesoftheworldCenter&Margin,orCore&Periphery(ethnocentrism)TheFieldofGeography-Geographyasasynthesizingdiscipline-GeographyofInternationalTradeInthecaseofthiscourse,itfocusesupononeoftheworld’smostimportanteconomicactivities,theinternationaltrade,andtherefore,itfallswithinthescopeofeconomicgeography.-TrendsinEconomicGeographyEconomicgeographyisconcernedwiththespatialorganizationanddistributionofeconomicactivity,theuseoftheworld’sresources,andthedistributionandexpansionoftheworldeconomy.CommercialgeographydevelopedduringtheeraofEuropeanexplorationanddiscoveryfromthe15thcenturythroughthe19thcentury:BritishscholarG.G.Chisholm(1899)Hisstatedpurposeofmercialgeography–tostimulateintellectualinterestingeographicfactsrelatingtotrade;Hence,hisbookwasaninventoryofmodityandtradestatistics,hisapproachwasmoredescriptivethananalytical.Economicgeographywasaffectedby3majorthemesofgeography:1)Human-environmentalrelations(flourisheduntil1930s),environmentaldeterminism–Climates,disease,oreventhe“coloredraces”aresomeofthedeterminantsusedtojustifyeconomicactivities.2)Arealdifferentiation(influentialfromthelate1930stothelate1950s),Adoptingtheviewthatallgeographicphenomenawereuniqueandthattheorybuildingwasoflittlevalue;Arealdifferentiation–differencesratherthansimilarities–amongplaces,resultedindetaileddescriptionsofproduction,exchange,andconsumptionwithvoluminousfactualdatainsomeofthegreatregionalwriting,overlookingtheneedforparativestudies.Arealdifferentiationdominatedgeographyattheexpenseofarealintegration.3)Spatialorganization(nowthedominantapproach).Howspaceisorganizedbyindividualsandsocietiestosuittheirowndesigns;Frameworkforanalyzingandinterpretinglocationdecisionsandspatialstructures;Themajorityofresearchineconomicgeographytodayremainslocationtheoryandanalysis.Itaimstounderstand“what”productsandservicesareproducedand“how”theyareproduced(i.e.withwhatbinationofresources),aswellas“where”theyareproducedand“whythere?”Thethemeofspatialorganizationisparticularlyvaluableinhelpingustounderstandworlddevelopmentproblems.PopulationandtheWorldEconomyPopulationProblemsintheWorldTodayThestudyofpopulationiscriticallyimportantfor3reasons:1.Morepeoplearealiveatthistime–6billion–thanatanypointinEarth’slonghistory.2.Theworld’spopulationincreasedatafasterrateduringthe2ndhalfofthe20thcenturythaneverbeforeinhistory.3.Virtuallyallglobalpopulationgrowthisconcentratedinlessdevelopedcountries(LDC).Tostudythechallengeofincreasingthefoodsupply,reducingpollution,andencouragingeconomicgrowth,geographersmustaskwhereandwhyaregion’spopulationisdistributedasitis.1.whereistheworld’spopulationdistributed?2.wherehastheworld’spopulationincreased?3.whyispopulationincreasingatdifferentratesindifferentcountries?4.whymighttheworldfaceanoverpopulationproblem?Geography’sfocusonansweringthewhereandwhyquestionshelpstoexplaintheglobalpopulationproblemandtosuggestsolutions.theworld’soverpopulationproblem1.Overpopulationproblemfromtheperspectiveofglobalization:ThisproblemisnotsimplyamatterofthetotalnumberofpeopleonEarth,buttherelationshipbetweenthenumberofpeopleandtheavailabilityofresources.Problemsarisewhenanarea’spopulationexceedsthecapacityoftheenvironmenttosupportthematanacceptablestandardofliving.2.Overpopulationproblemfromtheperspectiveoflocaldiversity:Overpopulationisathreatinsomeregionsoftheworldbutnotinothers.Someregionshaveafavorablebalancebetweenpeopleandavailableresources,whileothersdonot.Further,theregionswiththemostpeoplearenotnecessarilythesameastheregionswithanunfavorablebalancebetweenpopulationandresources.PopulationDistribution1.Populationsizeandpopulationconcentrations6billionpeople;3/4oftheworld’spopulationliveononly5%ofEarth’ssurface(whichconsistsofoceansandlessintensivelyinhabitedland);Theworld’spopulationisclusteredin5regions:EastAsia,SouthAsia,SoutheastAsia,WesternEurope,andEasternNorthAmerica.Andthese5regionsdisplaysomesimilarities:Mostoftheirpeoplelivenearanocean,ornearariverwitheasyaccesstoanocean,ratherthanintheinteriorlands.E.g.thePacificcoast,HuangandYangziRivervalleys,thecoastlinesoftheArabianSeaandtheBayofBengal(孟加拉灣),theplainsofGangesriver(恒河)，Indo-china,theAtlanticcoastofNorthAmerica,theGreatLakes,etc.Theyoccupygenerallylow-lyingareas(mid-latitudeesp.),withfertilesoilandtemperateclimate.TheyarealllocatedintheNorthernHemispherebetween10and50N,withtheexceptionofpartoftheSoutheastAsiaconcentration.2.SparselypopulatedregionsCertainphysicalenvironmentshavesomeinfluencesonpermanenthumansettlement.Relativelyfewpeopleliveinregionsthataretoodry,toowet,toocold,ortoomountainousforactivitiessuchasagriculture:DrylandsLandsdeficientinmoisturearesparselysettled.Thelargestdesertregion,extendingfromNorthAfricatoSouthwestandCentralAsia,isknownbytheSahara,Arabian,TaklaMakan,andGobideserts.Byconstructingirrigationsystems,peoplecansurvivebygrowingcrops(Oasis).Drylandsmaycontainnaturalresourcesusefultopeople–notably,muchoftheworld’soilreserves.WetlandsEquatorialheatandmoisture,asintheCongoandAmazonbasins,appeartodetersettlement.Toomuchrainfall(precipitation)andheatrapidlydepletenutrientsfromthesoil,thushinderingagriculture.ColdlandsFewpeopleliveinverycoldregions,suchasnorthernCanada,arcticRussia(Siberia),andnorthernScandinavia.Thepolarregionsreceivelessprecipitationthansomedesertareas,butoverthousandsyearsthesmallannualsnowfallhasaccumulatedintothickice(permafrostground).HighlandsRelativelyfewpeopleliveathighelevations.Thehighestmountainsintheworldaresteep,snow-covered,andsparselysettled,suchasMountEverest,Alps.3.PopulationDensityThemeasuresofdensityhelpgeographerstodescribethedistributionofpeopleinparisontoavailableresources.ArithmeticdensityThetotalnumberofpeopledividedbytotallandarea;Arithmeticdensityanswersthe“where”question,enablinggeographerstomakeparisonsofthenumberofpeopletryingtoliveonagivenpieceoflandindifferentregionsoftheworld.PhysiologicaldensityLandsuitedforagricultureiscalledarableland.Inaregion,thenumberofpeoplesupportedbyaunitareaofarablelandiscalledthephysiologicaldensity.Thehigherthephysiologicaldensity,thegreateristhepressurethatpeoplemayplaceonthelandtoproduceenoughfood.Hence,suchdensitymeasureprovidesinsightsintotherelationshipbetweenthesizeofapopulationandtheavailabilityofresourcesinaregion.(eg.USvs.Egypt)AgriculturaldensityTheratioofthenumberoffarmerstotheamountofarableland;Thismeasurehelpsexplaineconomicdifferences.MostDevelopedCountrieshaveloweragriculturaldensitiesbecausetechnologyandfinanceallowafewpeopletofarmextensivelandareasandfeedmanypeople.Tounderstandtherelationshipbetweenpopulationandresourcesinacountry,geographersexamineitsphysiologicalandagriculturaldensitiestogether.LookatTable2-1:EgyptandNetherlands:thephysiologicaldensitiesofbothEgypt(2147)andtheNetherlands(1450)arehigh,buttheDutch(58)haveamuchloweragriculturaldensitythantheEgyptians(737).ThatmeansthatboththeDutchandEgyptiansputheavypressureonthelandtoproducefood,butthemoreefficientDutchagriculturalsystemrequiresmanyfewerfarmersthandoestheEgyptiansystem.IndiaandNetherlands:theNetherlands(1450)hasamuchhigherphysiologicaldensitythandoesIndia(556),butamuchloweragriculturaldensity.ThisshowsthattheDutchhaveextremelylimitedarablelandtomeettheneedsoftheirpopulation(theybuiltdikesandcreatedpolders圩田，圍海造田).However,thehighlyefficientDutchfarmerscangeneratealargefoodsupplyfromalimitedresource.(DutchLady,noEgyptianLady,)Wherehastheworld’spopulationincreased?1.MeasuresofpopulationchangeCrudebirthrate(CBR):Thetotalnumberoflivebirthsinayearforevery1000peoplealiveinthesociety;ACDRof20meansthatforevery1000peopleinacountry,20babiesarebornovera1-yearperiod.Crudedeathrate(CDR):Thetotalnumberofdeathsinayearforevery1000peoplealiveinthesociety.Naturalincreaserate(NIR):NIR(%)=CBR-CDRThepercentagebywhichapopulationgrowsinayear.e.g.NIR=CBR(20)–CDR(5)=15per1000=1.5%“Natural”meansacountry’sgrowthrateexcludesmigration.Duringthe1990s,theworldnaturalincreaseratewas1.5,meaningthatworldpopulationgreweachyearby1.5%.Thisrateaffectsthedoublingtime,whichisthenumberofyearsneededtodoubleapopulation,assumingaconstantrateofnaturalincrease.AtthecurrentNIRof1.5%peryear,worldpopulationwoulddoubleinabout50years.2.Distributionofnaturalincreaseofworld’spopulationDistributionofnaturalincreaserate:Itshowsverylargeregionaldifferences.TheNIRexceeds3.0%inanumberofcountriesincentralAfrica,theMiddleEast,andCentralAmerica.Attheotherextreme,theNIRrateis0%orevennegativeinmuchofEurope,meaningthattheirpopulationisactuallydecliningintheabsenceofimmigrants.Distributionofpopulationgrowth:Allthegrowthisconcentratedinpoorercountries.Overthepast3decades,about54%oftheworld’spopulationgrowthhasbeeninAsia,15%eachinsub-SaharaAfricaandtheMiddleEast,10%inLatinAmerica;EuropeandNorthAmericaeachaccountforonly3%ofglobalpopulationgrowth.RegionaldifferencesinNIRmeanthatvirtuallyalltheworld’sadditionalpeopleliveinthecountriesthatareleastabletomaintainthem.WetlandsAwetlandisavegetatedareathatispermanentlyorperiodicallycoveredbywater,eitherfreshorsalt.Marshes,swamps,bayoutsandbogsareamongthetypicalwetlandenvironments.Wetlandsareamongthemostproductiveecosystemsonearth.Ashybridenvironment–neitherlandnorwater,wetlandsprovidelivingspaceandfoodtodifferentspecies.Videoscript:“Theworld’swetlandsareindanger.Peopleditchthem,drainthem,dikethem,dumpwasteintothem,anddrownthembehinddams.Swamps,bogs,andmarshesarelosttocreatelandtofarmorbuildupon.Asaconsequence,theworld’slosingitsnaturalwaterfilter,itsbuffersagainstfloodsanderosions,andthecriticalhabitatsandnurseriesforamyriadofspecies.”The1971RamsarConventionaimstodesignateandpreservewetlandsandprotectwildfowls.Bythelate1990s,morethan100countrieshavesignedthetreaty.Whyispopulationincreasingatdifferentratesindifferentcountries?1.ThedemographictransitionAllcountrieshaveexperiencedsomechangesinnaturalincreaseatdifferenttimesandatdifferentrates.Whileratesvaryamongcountries,asimilarprocessofchangeinasociety’spopulation,knowasdemographictransition,isoperating.Thedemographictransitionisaprocesswithseveralstages,andeverycountryisinoneofthem.Theprocesshasabeginning,middle,andend,anditisirreversible.Onceacountrymovesfromonestageoftheprocesstothenext,itdoesnotreverttoanearlierstage.Figure2-13Stage1–LowGrowth–veryhighbirthanddeathratesproducevirtuallynolong-termnaturalincrease:Formostofhumankind’sseveralhundred-thousand-yearoccupancyofEarth,theywereinstage1ofthedemographictransition.Thenaturalincreaseratewasessentiallyzero,andEarth’spopulationwasunchanged,atperhapsone-halfmillion.Duringmostofthisperiod,peopledependedonhuntingandgatheringforfood.Between8000B.C.andA.D.1750,Earth’shumanpopulationincreasedfromapproximately5millionto800million.Theburstofpopulationgrowtharound8000B.C.wascausedbyagriculturalrevolution,whichwasthetimewhenhumanbeingsfirstdomesticatedplantsandanimals.Despitesuchrevolution,thehumanpopulationremainedinstage1,becausefoodsupplieswerestillunpredictableduetoclimaticconditions,warsordiseasesthatstayedoutofhumancontrol.Mostofhumanhistorywasspentinstage1ofthedemographictransition,buttodaynosuchcountryremainsthere.Everycountryhasmovedontoatleaststage2andwiththattransitionhasexperiencedprofoundchangesinpopulation.Stage2–HighGrowth–rapidlydecliningdeathratesbinedwithveryhighbirthratesproduceveryhighnaturalincrease:AfteraroundA.D.1750,theworld’spopulationsuddenlybegantogrow10timesfasterthaninthepast.Thesuddenburstofpopulationgrowthoccurredbecauseinthelate18thandearly19thcenturiesseveralcountriesmovedintostage2ofthedemographictransition.Why???Countriesenteredstage2ofthedemographictransitionafter1750asaresultoftheindustrialrevolutionwhichbeganinEnglandinthelate18thcenturyandspreadtotheEuropeancontinentandNorthAmericaduringthe19thcentury.Majorimprovementsinindustrialtechnologytransformedtheprocessofmanufacturingandtransporting,whichresultedinanunprecedented

levelofwealth.Thewealthwasalsousedtoimprovesanitationandpersonalhygiene.Asaresu

ltofsuchpublicimprovements,peoplewerehealthierandlivedlonger.WhereascountriesinEuropeandNorthAmericaenteredstage2about1800,stage2diffusedtoc

ountriesinAfrica,AsiaandLatinAmericamuchmorerecently,inmostcasesafter1950.Andth

erecentpushofcountriesintostage2hasbeencausedbymedicalrevolution.Improvedmedica

lpracticessuddenlyeliminatedmanyofthetraditionalcausesofdeathinLDCsandenabledmorepeopletohavelongerandhealthierlives.Stage3–ModerateGrowth–birthratesrapidlydecline,whiledeathratescontinuetodecline;naturalincreaseratesbegintomoderate:EuropeanandNorthAmericancountriesgenerallymovedfromstage2tostage3ofthedemographictransitionduringthe1sthalfofthe20thcentury.SomecountriesinAfrica,AsiaandLatinAmericahavemovedtostage3inrecentyears,whileothersremaininstage2.Thecrudedeathratedeclinedinstage2followingintroductionofnewtechnologyintothesoc

iety,butthecrudebirthratedeclinesinstage3becauseofchangesinsocialcustoms.Asocietyentersintostage3whenpeoplechoosetohavefewerchildren.Suchdecisionoffamiliesispartlyadelayedreactiontoadeclineindeathrate.Economicchangesinstage3societies,theprocessofurbanizationinparticular,alsoinducepeopletohavefeweroffspring.Itisoftenthoughttobenotveryeconomicaltohavealargefamilyincitieswherelivingspacesaresmallerandexpensesaremuchhigherthancountryside.Stage4–LowGrowth–verylowbirthanddeathratesproducevirtuallynolong-termnaturalincrease,andpossiblyadecrease:AcountryreachesStage4ofthedemographictransitionwhenthecrudebirthratedeclinestothepointwhereitequalsthecrudedeathrate,andthenaturalincreaserateapproacheszero.Zeropopulationgrowthisatermoftenappliedtostage4countries.MostEuropeancountrieshavereachedstage4havingNIRsnear0,orevennegative.Socialcustomsagainexplainthemovementfromonestagetothenext.Increasingly,womeninstage4societiesenterthelaborforceratherthanstayathomeasfull-timehousewives.Changesinlifestylealsoencouragesmallerfamilies.Withincreasedineandleisuretime,morepeopleparticipateinentertainmentandrecreationactivitiesthatmaynotbesuitableforyoungchildren.Acountrythathaspassedthroughall4stagesofthedemographictransitionhasinsomewayspletedacircle–fromlittleornonaturalincreaseinstage1,tolittleornonaturalincreaseinstage4.However,twocrucialdemographicdifferencesunderliethisprocess.First,atstage1,thecrudebirthanddeathratesarehigh,whileatstage4theratesareverylow.Second,thetotalpopulationofthecountryismuchhigherinstage4thaninstage1.2.AgeDistributionTheagestructureofapopulationisextremelyimportantinunderstandingsimilaritiesanddifferencesamongcountries.InnearlyeveryAfricancountry,andinmanyAsianandLatinAmericancountries,morethan40%ofthepeopleareunderage15.Thishighpercentagefollowsfromthehighcrudebirthrateintheseregions.Thelargepercentageofchildrenstrainstheabilityofpoorercountriestoprovideneededservicesforthem.Incontrast,inEuropeanandNorthAmericancountries,whichareatornearstage4ofthedemographictransition,thepercentageofchildrenunder15isonlyabout20%,andpeopleoverage6

5exceed15%ofthepopulationinseveralEuropeancountries,paredtolessthan5%inmostAfricancountries.Olderpeoplebenefitinstage4countriesfromimprovedmedicalcareandhighe

rines,butthe“graying”ofthepopulationalsoplacesaburdenonEuropeanandNorthAmeric

angovernmentstomeettheolderpopulation’sneeds.3.“Why?”questionansweredWhyisworldwidepopulationincreasingrapidlytoday?Becausefewcountriesareinthetwost

agesofthedemographictransitionthathavelowpopulationgrowth–

nocountryremainsinstage1,andfewhavereachedstage4.Theoverwhelmingmajorityofcount

riesareeitherinstage2orstage3ofthedemographictransition–

stageswithrapidpopulationgrowth–andonlyafewarelikelytoreachstage4inthenearfuture.The4-stagedemographictransitionischaracterizedby2bigbreakswiththepast.Thefirstb

reak–thesuddendropinthedeathratethatesfromtechnologicalinnovation–

hasbeenacplishedeverywhere.Thesecondbreak–thesuddendropinthebirthratethatesfromchangingsocialcustoms–

hasyettobeachievedinmanycountries.Havingcausedthefirstbreakwiththepastthroughdiffusionofmedicaltechnologyworldwid

e,EuropeanandNorthAmericancountriesnowurgeothercountriestopletethesecondbreakwi

ththepast,thereductioninthebirthrate.Adeclineinthecrudedeathratecanbeinducedthr

oughintroductionofnewtechnologybyoutsiders,butthecrudebirthratewilldroponlywhen

peopledecideforthemselvestohavefewerchildren.Whymighttheworldfaceanoverpopulationproblem?Whydoesglobalpopulationgrowthmatter?Willcontinuedpopulationgrowthleadtoglobalstarvation,warandlowerqualityoflife?1.MalthusonOverpopulationEnglisheconomistThomasMalthus(1766-1834)wasoneofthefirsttoarguethattheworld’sratepopulationincreasewasfaroutrunningthedevelopmentoffoodsupplies.Malthus’sviewsremaininfluentialtoday.MalthusclaimedthatpopulationwasgrowingmuchmorerapidlythanEarth’sfoodsupply,becausepopulationincreasedgeometrically,whilefoodsupplyincreasedarithmetically.Malthusontherelationshipsbetweenpeopleandfoodinfutureproducedbygrowthrates:Today:1person,1unitoffood25yearsfromnow:2persons,2unitsoffood50yearsfromnow:4persons,3unitsoffood

75yearsfromnow:8persons,4unitsoffood100yearsfromnow:16persons,5unitsoffoodHeconcludedthatpopulationgrowthwouldpressagainstavailableresourcesineverycountry,unless“moralrestraint”producedlowercrudebirthratesorunlessdisease,famine,war,orotherdisastersproducedhighercrudedeathrates.2.Neo-MalthusiansContemporarygeographershavebroadenedMalthus’stheorytoenpassawidevarietyofresources,ratherthanonlyfood.Theypaintafrighteningpictureofaworldinwhichbillionsofpeopleareengagedinadesperatesearchforfoodandfuel.ManyLDCshaveexpandedtheirfoodproductionsignificantlyinrecentyears,buttheyhavemorepoorpeoplethaneverbefore.Becausepopulationgrowthoutpacedeconomicdevelopment,alltheeconomicgrowthwasabsorbedsimplyinacmodatingtheadditionalpopulation.3.DebateoverhowtoreducenaturalincreaseWithdeathratescontrolled,forthefirsttimeinhistorythemostcriticalfactordeterminingthesizeoftheworld’spopulationisthebirthrate.Scientistsagreethatthecurrentrateofnaturalincreasemustbereduced,buttheydisagreeontheappropriatemethodsforachievingthisgoal.Theoretically,forcountriescurrentlyinstage2ofthedemographictransition–highgrowth–naturalincreasecanbereducedinonly2ways:Returntostage1byraisingthecrudedeathrateuptothelevelofthecrudebirthrate.Movetostages3and4byloweringthecrudebirthratetothelevelofthecrudedeathrate.Fewpeoplewishtoseethefirstalternativerealized,leavingthesecondalternativeastheonlyhumanchoice.Scientistsandpublichealthofficialsdebateoverbestmeanstoachievelowerbirthrates.Onealternativeemphasizesrelianceoneconomicdevelopment,theotherondistributionofcontraceptives.EconomicdevelopmentalternativeThisalternativestressestheimportanceofimprovinglocaleconomicconditions.Awealthiermunityhasmoremoneytospendoneducationandhealthcareprogramsthatwouldpromotelowerbirthrates.Witheconomicconditionsimproved,womenwouldgetbettereducationandthereforebetterunderstandtheirreproductiverights.Withimprovedhealthcareprograms,infantswouldhavebetterchancestolivelonger.Andwiththesurvivalofmoreinfantsassured,womenwouldbemorelikelytochoosetolimitthenumberofchildrenwithmoreeffectivemethodsofcontraception.DistributionofcontraceptivesThisapproachemphasizestheimportanceofrapidlydiffusingmoderncontraceptivemethods.Economicdevelopmentmaypromotelowerbirthratesinthelongrun,buttheworldcannotwaitaroundforthatapproachtotakeeffect.Puttingresourcesintofamily-planningprogramscanreducebirthratesmuchmorerapidly.InLDCs,demandforcontraceptivedevicesisgreaterthantheavailablesupply.Therefore,themosteffectivewaytoincreasetheiruseistodistributemoreofthemcheaplyandquickly.Accordingtothisapproach,contraceptivesarethebestmethodforloweringthebirthrate.ResourcesandEnvironmentOurprosperitydependsontheavailabilityofnaturalresourcesandthequalityoftheenvironment.Yeteconomicactivitiesindevelopedcountries,andincreasinglyinunderdevelopedcountries,aredepletingresourcesanddegradingtheenvironment.Whatcanbedonethentoeffectivelymanageresourcesandprotecttheenvironment???Natureandlimitsoftheworld’sresources1.ResourcesandReservesResourceshavemeaningonlyintermsoftechnicalandculturalappraisalsofnatureandmustbedefinedwithreferencetoaparticularlevelofdevelopment.Resourcesincludeallthematerialsoftheenvironmentthatmaysomedaybeusedunderspecifiedtechnologicalandsocioeconomicconditions.Reservesarequantitiesofresourcesthatareknownandavailableforeconomicexploitationwithcurrenttechnologiesandatcurrentprices.Afinancialanalogy:reservesareliquidassets,likemoneyinacheckingaccount;resourcesarefrozenassetsorfutureinethatcannotbeusedforthismonth’scarpayments.2.TypesofresourcesandtheirlimitsNonrenewableresources:Finitemassesofmaterial,suchasfossilfuelsandmetals;theyare,forallpracticalpurposes,fixedinamount,becausetheyformveryslowlyovertime.Consequently,theirrateofuseisveryimportant.Largepopulationswithhighpercapitaconsumptionofgoodsdepletetheseresourcesfastest.Renewableresources:Resourcescapableofyieldingoutputindefinitelywithoutimpairingtheirproductivity;theyincludesoil,vegetation,air,andwater.Renewalisnotautomatic,however;renewableresourcescanbedepletedandpermanentlyreducedbymisuse.Forexample,fertiletopsoil,destroyedbyerosion,canbedifficulttorestoreandimpossibletoreplace.Resources,bothrenewableandnonrenewable,areexhaustible.Therearelimitstogrowthimposedbythefinitenessoftheearth–bythefactthatair,water,minerals,space,andusableenergysourcescanbeexhaustedoroverloaded.Existingfood,mineral,andenergyshortagesandareasnowbesetbydeforestationandsoilerosion,areamongsomeoftheproblemshumanmustface.“Tragedyofthemon”(Hardin,1968)Itreferstothewaypublicresourcesareruinedbytheisolatedactionsofindividuals.Weappeartobeunwillingtouseaminimumshareofaresource.Peoplewhofish,e.g.whenthereisnoruleofcapturelaw,arelikelytotrytocatchasmanyfishastheycan,reasoningthatiftheydon’t,otherswill.Similarly,dumpingwasteandpollutionsonpublicwatersandlandorintotheairisthecheapestwaytodisposeofworthlessthings.Thereisanapparentunwillingnesstodisposeofthesematerialsbymoreexpensivemeansunlessmandatedbylaw.3.ResourcesandPopulationEconomicgrowthandresourcesPopularperceptionappreciatestheneedtoreducepopulationgrowth,butoverlookstheneedtolimiteconomicgrowththatmassivelyexploitsresources.ItismonforpoorercountriestoaspiretoaffluencethroughWestern-styleurbanindustrialization.Buttheproductiontechnologyandpatternsofconsumptioninthedevelopedcountriesdependontheintensiveuseofenergyresources.Andpoorercountriesusuallydonothavethemeansforrunningsuchhigh-energysystems.CarryingcapacityandoverpopulationTherehavebeengreatimprovementsinthematerialwell-beingofpeopleinmanycountries(e.g.,percapitaines,caloriesconsumed,shelterandclothing,lifeexpectancy).Buttheseimprovementsaremerelyaverages,thefactisthatthegapbetweenrichandpoorcountrieswidenedthanever.Thegrowinggapisdueinparttothemorerapidpopulationgrowthinunderdevelopedcountries,whichreducesthebenefitsofeconomicgrowth.Ifpresenttrendsofpopulationgrowthandresourcedepletioncontinue,theworldwouldeventuallybebroughtintoastateknownascarryingcapacity,whichreferstothepopulationthatcanbesupportedbyavailableresources.FoodResources&FoodProblemEnoughFoodbuttherearestillhungerorevenstarvationoutthereWithpresentleveloftechnologyandoutputofworldfoodproduction,thereareenoughfoodresourcestoprovideforall,butthereisnofoodsecurityformillionsofpeople.Manysufferfromchronicmalnutrition(lackofprotein,vitamins,andessentialnutrients),andanevenlargernumbersufferfromundernutrition(lackofcalories).Thesepeopleareconcentratedintheunderdevelopedworld.LookatTable4.1–Calorieintakean