StrategicThinking

策略性的思考ManagerialEconomics1ZhigangTaoStrategicThinking

策略性的思考ManagPrisoner’sDilemma

囚徒的困境CokeversusPepsi可口可樂對百事可樂CompetitioninHongKongbankingindustry香港銀行業的競爭

ManagerialEconomics2ZhigangTaoPrisoner’sDilemma

囚徒的困境CokeToleadorNottoLead?

先下手為強?TheU.K.CreditCardIndustry

英國信用卡行業Boeingv.Airbus 波音對空中客車ManagerialEconomics3ZhigangTaoToleadorNottoLead?

先下手為強?我自巍然不動

HereIStandManagerialEconomics4ZhigangTao我自巍然不動

HereIStandManagerialManagerialEconomics5ZhigangTaoManagerialEconomics5ZhigangTHowtoincreaseyourbargainingpower?

各個擊破UAWagainstFord,GM,andChrysler美國汽車工會對抗福特、通用和克萊斯勒Evicttenantsinrent-controlledapartments 如何趕走租金管制大樓的所有租客Monopolyisnice,butmonopolyplusshortageistwiceasgood 通過壟斷能提高你的討價還價能力,壟斷再加上短缺就更好了

ManagerialEconomics6ZhigangTaoHowtoincreaseyourbargaininStrategicSituations

需要策略性思考的情景partiesactivelyconsidertheinteractionswithoneanotherinmakingdecisions一方做決策時會主動將另一方的反應納入考慮gametheory--setofideasandprinciplestoguidestrategicthinking

博弈論—指導策略性思考的一套理念和原理equilibriumconcepts均衡的概念representativegames典型的博弈ManagerialEconomics7ZhigangTaoStrategicSituations

需要策略性思考的JohnNash

美麗心靈ManagerialEconomics8ZhigangTaoJohnNash

美麗心靈ManagerialEconoNashEquilibrium

納什均衡GiventhattheotherplayerschoosetheirNashequilibriumstrategies,eachpartyprefersitsownNashequilibriumstrategy每一方在其他的對手選擇他們的納什均衡策略時,也會選擇自己的納什均衡策略Optimality

優化Stability

穩定ManagerialEconomics9ZhigangTaoNashEquilibrium

納什均衡GiventhaSeeingThroughYourRival’sStrategy洞察對手的策略“AllthatIhavetosayhasalreadycrossedyourmind,”saidHolmes.

“我想要問的你已經都知道了”Holmes說.“Thenpossiblymyanswerhascrossedyours,”Watsonreplied.“那么我的回答你也知道”Watson道.ManagerialEconomics10ZhigangTaoSeeingThroughYourRival’sStNoNashequilibriuminpurestrategies不存在純策略的納什均衡

Wheretoadvertise?

在哪兒作宣傳?ManagerialEconomics11ZhigangTaoNoNashequilibriuminpuresRandomizedStrategies

隨機策略chooseamongpurestrategiesaccordingtoprobabilities

根據概率在純策略中作出選擇mustbeunpredictable

必須是不可預測的IRSauditing(IRS審計)penaltyshoots(罰十二碼球)retailpricediscounts(零售價格折扣)ManagerialEconomics12ZhigangTaoRandomizedStrategies

隨機策略chooCompetitiveDilemma

競爭的兩難Pepsi百事

Raiseprice提價

Discount打折

Coke可口

Raiseprice提價

C:3,P:3

C:0,P:5

Discount打折

C:5,P:0

C:1,P:1

ManagerialEconomics13ZhigangTaoCompetitiveDilemma

競爭的兩難Pepsi

June1998:SaudiOilMinisterNaimi,“Idon’tthinkanybodyexpects100%compliance…Oncethepricegoesup,therewillbecheating” March1999:AlgerianOilMinisterYoucefYousfi,“OPECisstillabletoactcollectivelyandrestoremarketstability”

1998年六月,沙特石油部長Naimi說:“我不認為人們會100%的遵守…一旦價格上漲,就會有欺騙”1999年三月:阿爾及利亞石油部長YoucefYousfi說:“歐佩克仍然能夠一致行動保持市場的穩定”OPEC:OilCartel

石油卡特爾ManagerialEconomics14ZhigangTaoJune1998:SaudiOilMinistDifficultiesinDetectingCheaters

難于找出作弊者Uncertaintyinmarketdemand市場需求的不確定性Multi-dimensionalinteractions

多維的競爭Hardertoidentifythecheaterthantodetectcheating 找出作弊者比發現作弊事件更難ManagerialEconomics15ZhigangTaoDifficultiesinDetectingCheaCurrentGainv.FutureLoss

眼前利益和長遠利益Onlyinanongoingrelationshipisthereanabilitytopunish,andthusasticktomotivate.唯有在持續的關系中，才能保持懲罰的能力；懲罰能力反過來會維持良好的合作關系Problemwithfiniteperiodsoffuturetransactions未來交易期限的問題ManagerialEconomics16ZhigangTaoCurrentGainv.FutureLoss

眼前SequentialGames

先后下手的游戲secondmoveradvantage

后發制人firstmoveradvantage

先下手為強ManagerialEconomics17ZhigangTaoSequentialGames

先后下手的游戲seconPricingforProfit

如何定價才能獲利TheU.K.CreditCardIndustryintheLate1980s(A)-(D)80年代末的英國信用卡行業ManagerialEconomics18ZhigangTaoPricingforProfit

如何定價才能獲利TheMainPlayersintheUKCreditCardIndustry

英國信用卡行業的主要參與者Cardholders,merchants,merchantacquirers,issuingbanks,andcardassociations 持卡人,商家,信用卡中間業務處理商,發卡銀行和信用卡組織Merchantacquirerscollectamerchantservicecharge(MSC)fortheissuingbanks;inreturntheyreceiveadomesticinterchangefee(DIF)fromtheissuingbanks. 信用卡中間業務處理商為發卡銀行收取商業服務費;相應地,他們從發卡銀行那里得到國內交換費用ManagerialEconomics19ZhigangTaoMainPlayersintheUKCreditCardsinCirculation:1988

信用卡持有量:1988年VisaBanksBankofScotland(1,030thousands),Barclays(8,680),TSB(3,118),andothers(1,292)AccessBanksLloyds(2,800),Midland(2,820),NatWest(3,797),RBS(822),andothers(269)ManagerialEconomics20ZhigangTaoCardsinCirculation:1988

信用卡TransactionVolume:1988

交易量:1988年VisaBanks:BankofScotland(604millionpounds),Barclays(6,958),TSB(1,366),andothers(664)AccessBanks:Lloyds(2,301),Midland(2,147),NatWest(2,961),RBS(573),andothers(237)ManagerialEconomics21ZhigangTaoTransactionVolume:1988

交易量:CrisisintheUKCreditCardIndustry

英國信用卡行業的危機Hugelyprofitableinthemid1980s:frominterestchargedtocardholdersonunpaidbalancesandfeespaidbyretailers在80年代中期利潤豐厚，收入來自未付帳款的利息和零售商的付費injeopardybyearlyspringof19891989年春岌岌可危ManagerialEconomics22ZhigangTaoCrisisintheUKCreditCardICausesoftheChanges

改變的原因Manyofthesmallerbankswerebeginningtoenterthecreditcardbusiness,andasaresultthefeespaidbyretailersweredropping.Ontheotherhand,thecostofmoneywasincreasing.Finally,theproportionofoutstandingbalancessubjecttointerestwasdecreasing,from41.5%in1984to34.0%in1988(36.9%forLloydsin1988v.31.8%forBarclays).

許多較小的銀行開始進入信用卡領域,零售商的付費隨之減少。同時，貨幣成本增加。未付帳款的比例縮減：從1984年41.5%到1988年的34.0%(Lloyds36.9%而Barclays

31.8%).ManagerialEconomics23ZhigangTaoCausesoftheChanges

改變的原因ManLeaderorFollower?

先發還是后制?Inearly1989,Barclaysannounceditwasconsideringtheintroductionofaflatfeeforitscreditcards 1989年初，Barclays宣布它正在考慮收取信用卡年費In8/89’,Lloydsannouncedthat,startingFebruary1,1990,itwouldchargeafeeof12poundsandreducedinterestratefrom29.8%APR(annualpercentagerate)to26.8%APR.Barclays’response:“Wehavenoplanstointroduceanannualfeeatthisstagethoughwehavebeenthinkingaboutit.” 89年8月，Lloyds宣布自90年2月1日起收取12英鎊的年費，并降低利息，從29.8%的年利率降至26.8%。Barclays的反應是：我們還在考慮.ManagerialEconomics24ZhigangTaoLeaderorFollower?

先發還是后制?InCompetitioninMarketShare

搶占市場份額Lloydswasestimatedtohavelost375,000ofits3millioncreditcardcustomersbyFebruary1,1990,and600,000byMarch1990.

至1990年2月1日,Lloyds失去了37.5萬個客戶，至1990年3月失去60萬個客戶InApril,Barclaysannouncedanannualfeeof8poundsstartingJune.Itreportedlossof500,000customersbyOctober1990.1990年4月,Barclays宣布從6月起僅收8英鎊的年費.至1990年10月失去50萬個客戶.ManagerialEconomics25ZhigangTaoCompetitioninMarketShare

搶占PlayoftheGame

整個過程2/89’:Barclayssignalsinterestinfeesasaconcept89年2月：Barclays發出信號表示考慮收取年費8/89’:Lloydsverbalannouncement,Barclayshedgedresponse89年8月Lloyds口頭宣布，Barclays未做出正面回答12/89’:Lloydscommitstofeebymail,effectiveFebruary1,199089年12月：Lloyds通過郵件宣布收取年費，自90年2月1日起生效1/90’:Lloydsquiet90年1曰：Lloyds無任何舉措2/90’:Lloydsannounceslostcardholders,saysthattheyaremostlynot-profitablecustomers90年2月：Lloyds宣布失去客戶，但稱他們大多為不盈利的客戶4/90’:BarclaysrespondswithJunecommitment90年4月：Barclays宣布自六月開始收取年費9/90’:Midlandresponse90年9月：Midland做出反應8/91’:NatWestresponse91年8月：NatWest做出反應ManagerialEconomics26ZhigangTaoPlayoftheGame

整個過程2/89’:BaCreditCardPricing,October1992

1992年10月信用卡定價AnnualFee年費APR年利率Rate月利率Bank銀行名稱none27.6%2.05%TSB12pounds25.3%1.90%Midland12pounds23.9%1.80%Lloyds10pounds23.7%1.79%BarclaysSource:FinancialTimesManagerialEconomics27ZhigangTaoCreditCardPricing,October1HowtoMilktheCreditCardUsers

如何從信用卡使用者那里獲利Twokindsofbenefit:creditlendingtocardholders,andcashlesstransactionsforcardholders兩類收益：持卡人信貸與非現金交易Twotypesofusers:“creditusers”whopayinterestsonoutstandingbalancesand“freeriders”(orfull-payers)whopaybalancesontime兩類使用者：“賒帳用戶”（他們將支付未結清款項的利息）和“搭便車的人”（他們準時結清款項）Twoinstruments:interestratesandannualfees兩種工具：利息與年費Charginganannualfeepushesthe“freeriders”topay,butitdetersthe“creditusers”.收取年費可以迫使“搭便車的人”出錢，但同時會導致損失一些“賒帳用戶”。ManagerialEconomics28ZhigangTaoHowtoMilktheCreditCardUsAssumingthatthefull-payersarenotprofitable.

假設從“搭便車的人”那里是不獲利的Bad,BadGreat,OKfollow

Lloyds

OK,GreatGood,Goodlead

followleadBarclays

ManagerialEconomics29ZhigangTaoAssumingthatthefull-payersAssumingthatthefull-payersareprofitable.

假設從“搭便車的人”那里是可以獲利的Barclays

leadfollowLloyds

lead

Good,GoodReallybad,Greatfollow

Great,ReallybadBad,BadManagerialEconomics30ZhigangTaoAssumingthatthefull-payersClose

結語Industrystructurehadchanged,profitabilitywasdropping:gameneededtobechangedi.e.chargeafee.行業結構發生改變，盈利性降低，需開源收取年費Feesmayberisky(lostcustomers),plusfeesmaynotbeoptimal(inefficientpricingmechanism)收取年費有風險（失去客戶），增加年費也許并不是最優的選擇（定價機制效率低）Inthisinteractivesituation,wanttobefollower.在這種互動的情勢下，誰都希望能成為跟隨者Butnoleadingmaymeanthatindustrypricingneverchanges但若沒有“先吃螃蟹的人”，行業定價也許永遠不會改變ManagerialEconomics31ZhigangTaoClose

結語IndustrystructurehadCommercialAircraft

民用飛機Economiesofscaleandscope規模經濟及范圍經濟Ittakesatleast12yearsand$15billiontotakeanewairlinerfromdrawingboardtotestflight.Eachdoublingofproductionisreckonedtocutafifthoffthecost.Technologycanbespreadacrossafamilyofproducts.一種新型的客機開發,從構想到試飛至少需要投入150億美元花費12年的時間.產量每增加一倍,其平均生產成本就可以降低五分之一.不同產品類型之間還可以技術共享.Highindustryconcentration高度產業集中化BoeingandAirbus波音和空中客車ManagerialEconomics32ZhigangTaoCommercialAircraft

民用飛機EconomBoeing

波音公司FromB17sandB29sofWWIItoB52softheColdWar;spilloverfromdefensebusinesstocommercialaircraft

從二戰時期的B17和B29系列到冷戰時期的B52系列;從國防軍用機拓展到民用飛機Threetimesinitshistory,Boeingsuccessfullybettedonhighlyinnovativejetdesigns:firsttrans-Atlanticjet707,firstjumbojet747,andfirstultra-long-haultwinengine777,在其發展史中,波音公司曾經三次明智地將賭注放在極富創新意識的噴氣式飛機設計上:第一架飛越大西洋的民用噴氣機707,第一架大型噴氣式客機747,以及第一架超遠程雙發噴氣機777ManagerialEconomics33ZhigangTaoBoeing

波音公司FromB17sandB29sAirbus

空中客車Foundedin1970asaconsortiumofGerman,French,Spanish&Britishpartners,andheavilysubsidizedbythegovernments由德國,法國,西班牙及英國的合伙人于1970年聯合組建,政府提供了大量資助fly-by-wire&acommoncockpitdesign

電控飛行操作與相似的控制板面設計2001:AirbusIntegratedcompany,owned80%byEADSand20%byBAESystems

2001年：歐洲航空防務與航天公司（EADS）和英國航空航天動力系統公司（BAESystems）分別擁有空中客車聯合公司80%和20%的股份

ManagerialEconomics34ZhigangTaoAirbus

空中客車Foundedin1970asBattleFronts

爭議焦點TheAmericansbattleagainsttheeconomicheresyofsubsidizedcompetition.美國人抗議歐洲政府資助公司競爭這種非經濟行為TheEuropeansbattleagainstAmericanhegemonyinastrategicindustryandindirectsubsidyfromtheAmericandefensebudget.歐洲人則抗議美國在一些有戰略意義的產業中的霸權行為,以及美國政府通過國防預算給予的間接資助ManagerialEconomics35ZhigangTaoBattleFronts

爭議焦點TheAmericanBoeingandMDMerger1997

1997年波音與麥道的合并

TheEUcompetitioncommissionertriedtoblockthedealforthreereasons:歐盟反壟斷專員因為以下三個原因而試圖阻止這項合并：Boeing’scivilbusinessmightenjoydefense“spillover”fromMD.波音的民用客機業可以從麥道的國防軍用業中受益Thenewfirmwouldhave70%marketshareoflargeairliners.新的公司將擁有大型客機市場70%的份額Boeingstruckexclusive20-yearcontractswithDelta,ContinentalandAmericanAirlines.波音與達美航空,大陸航空及美洲航空公司簽訂了長達20年的專營合同ManagerialEconomics36ZhigangTaoBoeingandMDMerger1997

19972001:AirbuslaunchedA380

空中客車推出A380ManagerialEconomics37ZhigangTao2001:AirbuslaunchedA380

空中客Boeing’sCounter-Strategies

波音的應對策略ChallengeAirbus’launchaidbyfilingacomplaintwiththeWTO/butoffendmajorcustomers向WTO抗議空中客車所享有的開發資助/但是這樣會得罪一些主要客戶Boeing’sownproblems:subsidiesfromitsmilitarycontracts&useofforeignsalescorporation波音自身也存在問題:從軍用機合同中獲得資助,以及設立國外銷售機構Finally,amodifiedversionof747:747X或者,制造747的延伸版:747XManagerialEconomics38ZhigangTaoBoeing’sCounter-Strategies

波音SonicCruiser

音速巡航者3/29/2001:Boeingscrapeditsplanfor747X,andintroducedsoniccruiserinstead2001年3月29日,波音公司放棄747X系列的計劃,轉而開發音速巡航者$9billiontodevelop,175-250passengers,flyhigher,quieterandfaster投入90億美元用于研發這種載客量為175-250人,飛行得更高、更靜、更快的客機Boeingstockincreased1.7%,andEADSjumpedby3.9%波音公司和EADS的股票分別上漲1.7%和3.9%ManagerialEconomics39ZhigangTaoSonicCruiser

音速巡航者3/29/2001:ManagerialEconomics40ZhigangTaoManagerialEconomics40ZhigangAnotherflopinstrategy

又一次失敗的決策Endof2002:Boeingdumpeditsplanstomakesoniccruiser,sayingthatinthecurrenteconomy,businesstravelersarenolongerwillingtoplayapremiumfortheconvenienceofspeed2002年底,波音停止了音速巡航者計劃,理由是在當前經濟環境下,商務旅行的乘客不愿意為這種快速所帶來的便利而額外支付一筆費用Newplantohave747E,whichwouldbringtogetheradvancedmaterials,thelatestmanufacturingmethodsandthenewestelectronicsinajetlinermoreefficientthananyinthesky波音747E新機型:這種新式噴氣客機將選用先進的材料,采取最新的制造工藝,并結合新開發的電子產品,它將比以往的任何一種飛機都更高效.ManagerialEconomics41ZhigangTaoAnotherflopinstrategy

又一次失敗Will747Eevergetbuilt?

747E機型能否最終推出?

Achoicebetweenspendingboldlytodevelopanewjetandhunkeringdowntoplaydefense冒險開發新式的噴氣客機還是繼續發展國防軍用機?BeforetheMDmerger,Boeingrepliedoncommercialaviationformorethan80%ofitsrevenue;in2002,thefigurewas52.5%.Meanwhile,BoeinghasgonefromarelativelyinsignificantmilitarycontractortotheU.S.secondlargest.在與麥道合并之前,波音公司80%以上的收入都來自民用航空業;而2002年,這一比例降到52.5%.同時,在軍用機制造業內,波音則從原來不太顯眼的地位一躍成為美國第二大.ManagerialEconomics42ZhigangTaoWill747Eevergetbuilt?

747ENutraSweetabrandnameproductofaspartamebyMonsanto,licensedproductionbyAjinomoto,and$711millionbusinessNutraSweet是Monsanto擁有的糖精名牌產品,由Ajinomoto進行許可證生產,是7.11億美元的生意advertisingdirectedatend-usersandcooperativeadvertisingwithmanufacturers(upto40%discount)直接針對最終用戶作廣告,并以高達40%折扣價優惠鼓勵制造商合作作廣告largeMES(2,000tons),and$100mofplantconstructioncosts最低有效生產規模達2000噸(占總需求的三分之一),工廠建設成本高達1億美元ManagerialEconomics43ZhigangTaoNutraSweetabrandnameproductMonsanto生產基地ManagerialEconomics44ZhigangTaoMonsanto生產基地ManagerialEconomDemandbyFinalProducts

哪些產品需要糖精？Dietcokedrinks(80%)健宜可樂飲料Tabletopmarket(15%)餐桌零用市場Others(5%)其它ManagerialEconomics45ZhigangTaoDemandbyFinalProducts

哪些產DemandbyGeographicDistribution

需求地區分布ManagerialEconomics46ZhigangTaoDemandbyGeographicDistribut

TwoBigBuyers

兩大買家Coca-ColaandPepsi-Colaaccountedfor60%ofshipmentsintheUSsoftdrinkindustry可口可樂和百事可樂占到了美國軟飲料總銷量的60%ManagerialEconomics47ZhigangTaoTwoBigBuyers

兩大買家Coca-CoTooSweetTobeTrue

真的,就太爽了impendingpatentexpiration專利即將到期87’forEuropeandCanada對歐洲和加拿大是87年end92’forUS對美國是92年底entrydecision(500tons)inlate86’byHSCintheEuropeanandCanadianmarkets在86年后期：HSC建立了年產500噸的設備，準備進入歐洲和加拿大的市場。normalcompetitionorpricewar?Monsanto應該如何應對HSC:正常的競爭還是價格戰?ManagerialEconomics48ZhigangTaoTooSweetTobeTrue

真的,就太爽了imWillNutraSweetfightHSCinEurope/Canada?

NutraSweet會在歐洲/加拿大迎戰HSC嗎?deeppockets資金雄厚signaltootherentrants,wrtUSmarket,andwrtsubstitutes對于窺視美國市場的廠商及替代品開發商發出信號denyHSCscale/learning剝奪HSC規模經濟及學習機會Substitutesalongwayoff替代品遙遙無期DSM/TosohhavedeeppocketsDSM/Tosoh也有錢signalingnotcredible信號不可信NutraSweetbrand/costadvantagesNutraSweet品牌/成本優勢complexity/processpatents生產復雜/程序專利MES=1/3market最低有效規模達整個市場的1/3HSCsmallHSC較小ManagerialEconomics49ZhigangTaoWillNutraSweetfightHSCinEBloodyCompetition

Monsanto火并HSCEuropeanMarket歐洲市場First100%andthen50%exclusivecontractswithCokeandPepsi與可口和百事簽定專營合同（最初100％，后降為50％）pricedroppedto$22-30perpound價格跌到每磅22-30美元CanadianMarket加拿大市場exclusivecontractswithCokeandPepsiwith“meet-or-release”and“most-favored-nation”clauses與可口和百事簽定專營合同,附帶“再給一個機會”與“最惠國”條款pricedroppedto$40-50perpound

價格跌到每磅40-50美元ManagerialEconomics50ZhigangTaoBloodyCompetition

Monsanto火并LegalchallengesbyHSC?

HSC是否采取法律行動?HSCargumentsHSC的指控predatorypricing侵略性定價leveragingmarketpower利用市場力量壓制新興企業MORclauses---stickycustomers“再給一個機會”條款導致顧客不換廠商MFNclauses---“最惠國”條款導致每個顧客依賴別的顧客與廠商討價還價NutraSweetcounter-argumentsNutraSweet的反駁lowpricesindicatecompetition低價是由競爭造成Buyerschooseexclusivityetc.專營合同能否履行最終依據顧客選擇long-termcontractsandMOR/MFNclausesofferinsurance長期合同和附帶條款為顧客和廠商提供保險ManagerialEconomics51ZhigangTaoLegalchallengesbyHSC?

HSC是否HSCWinningLegalBattles

HSC贏得了官司Europeanmarket歐洲市場anti-dumpingdutiesof$15perpoundonNutraSweet對NutraSweet征收每磅15美元的反傾銷稅

Canadianmarket加拿大市場nocontractswithexclusivetermsordiscountsinducingthedisplayoftrademark/logo禁止專營合同,或通過折扣誘逼購買者出示NutraSweet的商標MORandMFNofferedtoallcustomersornone特別(“再給一次機會”和“最惠國”)條款，要對所有客戶一視同仁。ManagerialEconomics52ZhigangTaoHSCWinningLegalBattles

HSC贏WhatshouldNutraSweetdo?

NutraSweet該如何應對？Lowprice低價XExclusivecontracts專營合同XPre-emptivecapacityexpansion?先發制人，擴大生產規模？Europe：avoidduties,marketgrowth,andpreemptsHSConhomeground歐洲：避稅，市場發展迅速，在HSC家門口搶占先機USA:thelargestmarket,andsplittheglobewithHSC美國：市場最大，并向HSC發出信號，將與之分踞市場ManagerialEconomics53ZhigangTaoWhatshouldNutraSweetdo?

NuCapacityExpansion

擴大生產能力3,000tonsforAugustaplant(late89’)Augusta工廠3000噸(89年后期)2,000tonsinFrance(9/91’)法國2000噸(91年9月)ManagerialEconomics54ZhigangTaoCapacityExpansion

擴大生產能力3,000CompetitiontoStay

競爭常在In1/92,HSCplanedtoincreaseitscapacityfrom500to2,000tons在92年元月,HSC計劃將生產能力由500噸增加到2000噸“Everymanufacturerlikestohaveatleasttwosourcesofsupply.”“每個制造商都希望有至少兩個供應商.”“WearelookingforwardtomovingthewarintotheUS.”“我們期待打響進入美國市場的戰役”ManagerialEconomics55ZhigangTaoCompetitiontoStay

競爭常在In1/9Union勞方Employer資方rejectunionDemand拒絕工會的要求Accept接受donot不罷工

Strike罷工Losecurrentwageandpossiblygaininfuturewage損失目前工資，但未來工資可能會增加MaintaincurrentWage維持現有工資Strike

罷工ManagerialEconomics56ZhigangTaoUnionEmployerrejectunionAcceTheAcquisitionofConrail

CSX收購ConrailCSXandConrail,the1stand3rdlargestrailroadsintheEasternUnitedStates,announcedan$8.3billionmergeron10/16/96,withitsnewheadquarterslocatedatPhiladelphiaandtobemanagedbyConrail’sCEOintwoyears.

CSX和Conrail是美國東部第一和第三大的鐵路公司,在96年10月16日宣布以83億美元價值合并.新總部設在費城,兩年后新公司將由Conrail總裁管理ManagerialEconomics57ZhigangTaoTheAcquisitionofConrail

CSXTheFirst-TierOffer

第一階段收購CSXwouldfirstbuy19.7%ofConrail’ssharesat$92.5pershareandanadditional20.3%atthesamepriceonlyafterConrailshareholdersapprovethedealunderPennsylvanialaw(the“fairvalue”statuteand“votingrights”statute)

CSX先以92.5美元的價格購買(Conrail)19.7%的股份；一旦Conrail股東根據賓州的法律批準這項交易后，CSX會以相同的價格收購另外20.3%的股份ManagerialEconomics58ZhigangTaoTheFirst-TierOffer

第一階段收購CSXTheSecond-TierOffer

第二階段收購CSXwouldexchangesharesintheratioof1.85619:1.0(CSX:Conrail)fortheremaining60%shares.BasedonCSX’sstockpriceof$46.75,thesharepricefortheback-endofferwouldbe$89.07

CSX會以1.85619:1.0的比例交換剩余的60%Conrail股份.基于CSX的46.75美元的股價,后端收購股價是89.07美元.ManagerialEconomics59ZhigangTaoTheSecond-TierOffer

第二階段收購CSProvisionsintheAgreement

協議中的條款A“breakup”feeof$300million3億美元的分手費CSXgrantedthe“lockup”optiontopurchase15.96millionnewlyissuedcommonsharesat$92.5pershareCSX享有“鎖死”期權,可以以每股92.5美元的價格來購買Conrail新發行的1596萬普通股.Conrail’s“poisonpill”suspended聯鐵的毒藥計劃暫停“Onotalk”clauseforsixmonths6個月內Conrail不許與其他公司談戀愛ManagerialEconomics60ZhigangTaoProvisionsintheAgreement

協議QuestionsfortheConrailCase

聯鐵案的問題WhydidCSXmakeatwo-tieredoffer?AsaConrailshareholder,wouldyoutenderyoursharestoCSXat$92.50inthefirst-stageoffer?Whataretheeconomicrationalesforandthetakeoverimplicationsofthevariousprovisionsinthemergeragreement?CSX為什么采用兩階段收購?作為Conrail的股東，您會否在第一收購階段以$92.50的價格把股票賣給CSX?如何理解收購協議里的多種條款?ManagerialEconomics61ZhigangTaoQuestionsfortheConrailCaseSallyWilliamsWilliamsFirst-tiercashoffer現金收購Doesn’tbid不收購Doesnot不出售

WilliamsgetsControl取得控制Accepts出售股票Williams

$17.5HoldsshareFails失敗WilliamsgetscontrolFails$15Holdsshare持股Two-TierTakeoverBid

兩階段收購計劃ManagerialEconomics62ZhigangTaoSallyWilliamsWilliamsFirst-tieSharonHildaacquires100,000Shares購買10萬股doesn’tbid沒有doesnot

activatesrights毒藥計劃啟動

Hildalosesoninitialstake+costoftakeoverrisesHilda原先投資受損＋收購成本上升PoisonPill

毒藥計劃ManagerialEconomics63ZhigangTaoSharonHildaacquires100,000doeEstablishingCreditableCommitments

建立可信的承諾Changethepayoffsofthegame

改變博弈的支付Changethegametolimityourabilitytobackoutofacommitment

改變博弈,限制你反悔承諾的能力Useotherstohelpyoumaintaincommitment利用其它方式幫助你信守承諾ManagerialEconomics64ZhigangTaoEstablishingCreditableCommitReputation聲譽ManagerialEconomics65ZhigangTaoReputation聲譽ManagerialEconomWhatreputation

聲譽ColonelGhadafiandAyatollahKhomeini 卡扎菲和霍梅尼NorthKorea

北朝鮮LiKa-Shing---Nonegotiationwithhostagetakers李嘉誠—不與綁架者談判ManagerialEconomics66ZhigangTaoWhatreputation

聲譽ColonelGhaContracts

合同$25,000dietplanbyNickRusso

NickRusso的兩萬五千美元的減肥計劃DrugrehabilitationcenteratDenver

丹佛的戒毒所Renegotiation-proofcontracts

無法再協議的合同ManagerialEconomics67ZhigangTaoContracts

合同$25,000dietplanCuttingoffcommunication

隔斷交流AmericanMovie:“Bachelor”美國電影“單身漢”Battlesofsexes聽誰的？ManagerialEconomics68ZhigangTaoCuttingoffcommunication

隔斷交BurningBridgesBehindYou

破釜沉舟“PutallyoureggsinonebasketandWATCHTHATBASKET.”“把所有的雞蛋放到一個籃子里,看護好這只籃子.”Polaroidv.EastmanKodak:“Thisisourwholelife.”寶麗來反擊柯達ManagerialEconomics69ZhigangTaoBurningBridgesBehindYou

破釜沉LeavingtheOutcomebeyondYourControl聽天由命AutomatictriggerinDr.Strangelove在Dr.Strangelove影片中的自動扳機brinkmanship:SovietrocketswouldflyautomaticallyintheeventofarmedconflictinBerlin(Khrushchev)

外交冒險政策:一旦柏林發生武裝沖突,蘇聯的火箭就會自動發射ManagerialEconomics70ZhigangTaoLeavingtheOutcomebeyondYouMovinginSteps

化整為零Startsmallinrelationships

慢慢建立關系installmentspaymentinconstructionandcustomsoftwaredesign

建筑施工和量身定制軟件設計中的分期付款ManagerialEconomics71ZhigangTaoMovinginSteps

化整為零StartsmalTeamwork

團隊精神Groupawards/punishments集體獲獎/受罰Lendingindevelopingcountries“株連九族”

ManagerialEc