商務(wù)英語(yǔ)文章(帶中文翻譯)商務(wù)英語(yǔ)文章(帶中文翻譯)商務(wù)英語(yǔ)文章(帶中文翻譯)資料僅供參考文件編號(hào)：2022年4月商務(wù)英語(yǔ)文章(帶中文翻譯)版本號(hào)：A修改號(hào)：1頁(yè)次：1.0審核：批準(zhǔn):發(fā)布日期：（一）WorldeconomyThejobscrisis失業(yè)危機(jī)It’scoming,whatevergovernmentsdo;buttheycanmakeitbetterorworse不論政府如何努力，失業(yè)危機(jī)已經(jīng)到來(lái)。不過(guò)政府可以在這場(chǎng)危機(jī)中起到關(guān)鍵作用IllustrationbyBelleMellorNOTHINGevokesthemiseryofmassunemploymentmorethanthephotographsoftheDepression.Youcanseeitinthedrawnfacesofthemen,intheirshabbyclothes,intheireyes.Theirdespairspawnedpoliticalextremismthatleftastainonsociety;butitalsotaughtsubsequentgenerationsthatpublicpolicyhasavitalpartinalleviatingthesufferingofthosewhocannotgetwork.Thankstowelfareschemesandunemploymentbenefits,manyofwhichhavetheiroriginsinthosedarkdays,joblessnessnolongerplungespeopleintodestitution,atleastinthedevelopedworld.再?zèng)]有什么比關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條的照片更能讓人體會(huì)大量失業(yè)的痛苦。這種痛苦顯見(jiàn)于人們緊繃的面容，襤褸的衣衫，還有他們的眼神。由人們的絕望所引發(fā)的政治極端主義給社會(huì)留下污點(diǎn)；失業(yè)問(wèn)題也使后人懂得公共政策在減輕失業(yè)痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利計(jì)劃和失業(yè)救濟(jì)金方案都發(fā)軔于那些灰暗的失業(yè)時(shí)期；受惠于這些計(jì)劃，至少發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的人們不再因?yàn)槭I(yè)而陷入窮困。Noteventhegloomiestpredictthattoday’sslumpwillapproachtheseverityoftheDepression,whichshrankAmerica’seconomybymorethanaquarter,andputaquarteroftheworking-agepopulationoutofajob.Butwiththeworldinitsdeepestrecessionsincethe1930sandglobaltradeshrinkingatitsfastestpacein80years,themiseryofmassunemploymentloomsnonetheless,andraisesthebigquestionposedintheDepression:whatshouldgovernmentsdo即使是最悲觀的預(yù)計(jì)都不認(rèn)為眼下的衰退會(huì)接近大蕭條的程度，后者使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)縮水四分之一，四分之一的就業(yè)人口失去工作。但隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)自1930年代以來(lái)的最大幅度衰退以及全球貿(mào)易80年來(lái)的最快速萎縮，大規(guī)模失業(yè)的惡魘再度凸顯，并且拋出了和大蕭條時(shí)期一樣的大問(wèn)題：政府應(yīng)該做些什么？Jointhequeue加入失業(yè)隊(duì)伍IntherichworldthejoblossesarestarkestinAmerica,wheretherecessionbegan.ItsflexiblelabourmarkethasshedjobssincethedownturnbeganinDecember2007,includingmorethan600,000ineachofthepastthreemonths.Theunemploymentratejumpedto%inFebruary,thehighestinaquarter-century.AnAmericanwholoseshisjobtodayhaslessofachanceoffindinganotheronethanatanytimesincerecordsbeganhalfacenturyago.Thatisespeciallyworryingwhenthefinancesofmanyhouseholdshavecometodependontwofullincomes.富裕國(guó)家的失業(yè)問(wèn)題在衰退肇始的美國(guó)最為顯著。自從07年12月經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入低迷以來(lái)，美國(guó)靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)溢出了440萬(wàn)份失業(yè)，其中在過(guò)去三個(gè)月內(nèi)每月產(chǎn)生了60萬(wàn)份。二月的失業(yè)率躍升至%，是25年來(lái)的最高數(shù)字。比起有紀(jì)錄的半個(gè)世紀(jì)內(nèi)的任何時(shí)期，眼下失業(yè)的美國(guó)人更難再找到一份工作。特別是當(dāng)很多家庭的財(cái)政依靠雙職工收入的時(shí)候，這種情況尤其令人堪憂。ButitisalreadyclearthatunemploymentwillstrikehardfarbeyondAmericaandBritain.InJapanoutputisplungingfasterthaninotherricheconomies.Althoughunemploymentislow,rapidjoblossesamongJapan’sarmyoftemporaryworkersareexposingtheunfairnessofatwo-tierlabourmarketandstraininganegalitariansociety.然而顯而易見(jiàn)的是，失業(yè)問(wèn)題的沉重打擊遠(yuǎn)不止于美國(guó)和英國(guó)。日本的生產(chǎn)量比其他富裕經(jīng)濟(jì)體下降得更快。盡管失業(yè)率尚低，但臨時(shí)工當(dāng)中快速增長(zhǎng)的失業(yè)大軍顯示了“雙層勞工市場(chǎng)”的不公平性，加劇了一個(gè)平等社會(huì)中的緊張。InEuropejoblessnesshasgrownfastestinplacessuchasSpainandIreland,wherebuildingboomshavecrashed,buthasonlybeguntoedgeupelsewhere.TheunemploymentratesinmanyEuropeancountriesarebelowAmerica’s,butthatmaybebecausetheirmorerigidlabourmarketsadjustmoreslowlytofallingdemand.GivenhowfastEuropeaneconomiesareshrinking,nobodydoubtsthatworseliesahead.Bytheendof2010,unemploymentinmuchoftherichworldislikelytobeabove10%.在歐洲，建筑業(yè)熱潮遭遇重創(chuàng)的西班牙和愛(ài)爾蘭等國(guó)失業(yè)速度增長(zhǎng)最快，而在其他地方則初現(xiàn)端倪。很多歐洲國(guó)家的失業(yè)率都低于美國(guó)，但也許這只是因?yàn)樗鼈冇懈訃?yán)格的勞工市場(chǎng)，從而對(duì)下降的市場(chǎng)需求適應(yīng)更慢。面對(duì)著快速萎縮的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)，沒(méi)有人會(huì)懷疑更糟糕的就業(yè)局面就在眼前。到2010年底，多數(shù)富裕國(guó)家的失業(yè)率可能會(huì)超過(guò)10%。Intheemergingworldthepatternwillbedifferent,buttheoutcomemorepainful.Astradeshrinks,millionsofworkersarelosingtheirfootholdonthebottomrungsoftheglobalsupplychain.Povertywillriseastheysinkintoinformalworkormovebacktotheland.TheWorldBankexpectssome53mpeopletofallbelowthelevelofextremepovertythisyear.發(fā)展中國(guó)家的情況就不一樣了，只不過(guò)結(jié)果會(huì)更人頭疼。隨著貿(mào)易萎縮，數(shù)以百萬(wàn)計(jì)的工人正失去他們?cè)谌蚬?yīng)鏈條底端的立錐之地。他們轉(zhuǎn)向非正式工作或者回到農(nóng)村，伴隨而來(lái)的是貧困問(wèn)題的抬頭。世界銀行預(yù)計(jì)，今年將有約5300萬(wàn)人降到極端貧困線以下。Politicsdictatesthatgovernmentsmustinterveneenergeticallytohelp.That’spartlybecausecapitalhastakensuchalargeshareofprofitsforsomanyyearsthatthependulumisboundtoswingbackandpartlybecause,havingjustgiventrillionsofdollarstothebanks,politicianswillbeunderpressuretoputvastamountsofmoneyintosavingjobs.Buthelpcannotbemeasuredindollarsalone.Badlydesignedpoliciescanbeself-defeating.Aftertherecessionsofthe1970sandearly1980s,Europe’srigidlabour-marketskeptunemploymenthighfordecades.政治上，政府必須全力介入進(jìn)行援助。這一方面是因?yàn)槎嗄暌詠?lái)資本在利潤(rùn)中占去了很大份額，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因?yàn)榻o了銀行萬(wàn)億計(jì)美元的當(dāng)政者們承擔(dān)著巨大的壓力，需要大量注資來(lái)挽救就業(yè)崗位。然而挽救不能僅以美元來(lái)衡量。錯(cuò)誤的決策反倒會(huì)弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退以來(lái)，歐洲缺乏靈活度的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)就使失業(yè)率幾十年來(lái)居高不下。Governmentsarepilinginwithshort-termhelpforworkers.InAmerica,whichhasoneofthelowestsocialsafetynetsintherichworld,extendingunemploymentbenefitswas,rightly,partoftherecentstimuluspackage.Japanisgivingsocialassistanceto“nonregular”workers,agroupthathaslongbeenignored.Ingeneral,however,itmakesmoresensetopaycompaniestokeeppeopleinworkthantosubsidiseunemployment.Manycountriesaretoppinguptheearningsofworkersonshortenedweeksorforcedleave.各國(guó)政府正為勞動(dòng)者提供大量的短期援助。美國(guó)的社會(huì)保障體系在富裕國(guó)家中處于最低，而最近出臺(tái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃中，擴(kuò)大失業(yè)救濟(jì)金惠及面恰恰是計(jì)劃中的一部分。日本為長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)受忽視的“非固定”勞動(dòng)者群體提供社會(huì)援助。不過(guò)總的來(lái)說(shuō)，比起失業(yè)補(bǔ)助，資助企業(yè)以留住員工才是明智之舉。很多國(guó)家通過(guò)縮短每周工作日或強(qiáng)制休假來(lái)滿足勞工薪資。Thesearesensiblemeasures,solongastheyaretime-limited;for,intheshortterm,governmentsneedtodoalltheycantosustaindemand.Butthejobscrisis,alas,isunlikelytobeshort-lived.Eveniftherecessionendssoon(andthereislittlesignofthathappening),theassetbustandtheexcessiveborrowingthatledtoitarelikelytoovershadowtheworldeconomyformanyyearstocome.Moreover,manyofyesterday’sjobs,fromSpanishbricklayertoWallStreettrader,arenotcomingback.Peoplewillhavetoshiftoutofoldoccupationsandintonewones.這些措施在一定時(shí)限內(nèi)是合理的：因?yàn)樵诙唐趦?nèi)，政府需要盡全力維持需求。只是哎呀，就業(yè)危機(jī)不大可能只在短期內(nèi)存在。即便經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退很快結(jié)束（而且?guī)缀醪豢赡馨l(fā)生），引起這場(chǎng)危機(jī)的陰云——資金短缺和過(guò)度借貸——將在接下來(lái)繼續(xù)籠罩世界經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年。更有甚者，不論是西班牙的砌磚匠還是華爾街的交易員，很多昔日的就業(yè)崗位會(huì)一去不復(fù)返。人們將被迫告別現(xiàn)有職位，轉(zhuǎn)行進(jìn)入新崗位。Adifficultdance艱難的舞步Overthenextcoupleofyears,politicianswillhavetoperformadifficultpolicyU-turn;for,inthelongterm,theyneedflexiblelabourmarkets.Thatwillmeanabolishingjob-subsidyprogrammes,takingawayprotectedworkers’privilegesandmakingiteasierforbusinessestorestructurebylayingpeopleoff.CountriessuchasJapan,withtwo-tierworkforcesinwhichanarmyoftemporaryworkerswithfewprotectionstoilalongsidemollycoddledfolkwithmany,willneedtonarrowthatdisparitybymakingthelattereasiertofire.在接下來(lái)的幾年中，政治家們不得不做出一個(gè)180度的艱難政策轉(zhuǎn)變：因?yàn)閺拈L(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，他們需要一個(gè)靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。這意味著廢除工作補(bǔ)貼計(jì)劃，去除受保護(hù)勞工的特權(quán)，以及幫助企業(yè)更方便地裁員從而進(jìn)行重組。像日本這樣具有雙層勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)的國(guó)家，大量埋頭苦干的臨時(shí)勞工缺乏就業(yè)保障，而被嬌生慣養(yǎng)的上層員工卻能享受到多重保護(hù)。這種差別需要通過(guò)嚴(yán)格上層員工的裁汰制度加以消除。Theeuphemismforthatis“flexibility”.Thebaretruthisthatthemoreeasilyjobscanbedestroyed,themoreeasilynewonescanbecreated.Theprogrammesthathelptoday,bykeepingpeopleinexistingjobs,willtomorrowbecomeadragonthegreatadjustmentthatliesahead.Astimegoesby,spendingonkeepingpeopleinoldjobswillneedtobecut,andreplacedwithspendingontrainingthemfornewones.Governmentswillhavetoswitchfrompoliciestosupportdemandtopoliciestomaketheirlabourmarketsmoreflexible.Thatisgoingtorequirefancypoliticalfootwork;butpoliticianswillhavetoperformthosesteps,becauseiftheyfailto,theywillstiflegrowth.這些措施可以委婉地概括為“靈活性”措施。更直白的事實(shí)是，現(xiàn)有工作越容易被廢棄，新工作就越容易被創(chuàng)造。眼下這些保住人們飯碗的援助計(jì)劃會(huì)在今后成為調(diào)整適應(yīng)今后形勢(shì)的拖累。隨著時(shí)間推移，用在保留人員舊崗位的指出需要削減，取而代之的是為新崗位培養(yǎng)勞動(dòng)者的開(kāi)支。各國(guó)政府需要從支持需求的政策轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榻ㄔO(shè)一個(gè)更靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。這種轉(zhuǎn)變需要富有想象力的政治謀劃，但確實(shí)當(dāng)政者們必須完成的步驟：因?yàn)槿绻麄儾贿@樣做，增長(zhǎng)將被遏制。Howeverwellgovernmentsdesigntheirpolicies,unemploymentisgoingtorisesharply,forsometime.Atbestitwillblightmillionsoflivesforyears.Thepoliticians’taskistomakesurethemiseryisnotmeasuredindecades.然而，不論政府政策制定的多么完美，失業(yè)率在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)仍將陡增。不過(guò)充其量它會(huì)在幾年內(nèi)讓數(shù)百萬(wàn)人的生計(jì)陷于困境。當(dāng)政者的任務(wù)是不要讓這場(chǎng)不幸延續(xù)數(shù)十年。（二）China'stradeSurplustorequirements順差的需要WhyisChina’stradesurplusgrowingwhenitsexportshavecollapsed?為什么中國(guó)的出口大幅下降時(shí)，貿(mào)易順差卻在增長(zhǎng)？THISweekrevisedfiguresrevealedthatChinaovertookGermanyin2007tobecometheworld’sthird-biggesteconomy.AtthestartoflastyearChinaalsolookedsettobecometheworld’sbiggestexporter,butaslumpinexportsinthefinalmonthsoftheyearmeanttheyremainedsmallerthanGermany’s.China’sexportstumbledby13%(indollarterms)inthefourthquarter,leavingthem3%lowerinDecemberthanayearearlier.Despitethis,China’stradesurplusrosetoarecord$457billionatanannualrateinthefourthquarter—50%biggerthaninthesameperiodof2007.Whatisgoingon本周，修正后的數(shù)字顯示中國(guó)在2007年已經(jīng)超越德國(guó)成為世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。在去年初，中國(guó)也目標(biāo)成為世界上最大的出口國(guó)，但是年末數(shù)月出口的大幅下落意味著他們?nèi)匀慌旁诘聡?guó)之后。按照美元來(lái)計(jì)算，中國(guó)的出口額在第四季度下降了13%，比一年前同期少了3%。盡管如此，中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差在第四季度卻以全年增速上升到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的4570億美元，比2007年同期增長(zhǎng)了50%。這其中到底有何玄機(jī)？Inthefirsthalfof2008China’stradesurplusdidindeedshrink(seechart).Butsincethen,althoughexportsslumped,importsfellbymuchmore—downby21%inthe12monthstoDecember.Theslideinbothexportsandimportswasexacerbatedbytheglobalcreditfreeze,whichhasmadeitharderforcompaniesaroundtheworldtogetlettersofcredittoguaranteepayment.Importswerealsodraggeddownbycheaperoilandcommodityprices,andbyweakerimportsofmaterialsandcomponentsusedtomakeexports(over50%oftotalimports).2008年上半年，中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了縮水（見(jiàn)表）。但是自那以后，盡管出口大跌，但是進(jìn)口跌的更慘——到12月時(shí)，12個(gè)月內(nèi)下跌了21%。進(jìn)出口雙雙下滑由于受到全球信貸停滯影響而加劇。這是因?yàn)樾庞脙鼋Y(jié)導(dǎo)致全世界的公司更加難以獲得信用證從而保證支付。出口同樣也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉價(jià)的原油和商品價(jià)格，以及原材料和用于出口產(chǎn)品的部件進(jìn)口（占到進(jìn)口總量的50%以上）表現(xiàn)疲軟。ButamoreworryingreasonwhyChinaboughtlessfromtherestoftheworldisthatitsdomesticdemandhasweakened.Consumerspendingandmanufacturinginvestmenthavesofarheldupreasonablywell,butconstruction—abiguserofimportedrawmaterials—hascollapsed.但是關(guān)于中國(guó)進(jìn)口下降的一個(gè)更令人憂慮的原因是：中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)需求減小。消費(fèi)支出和生產(chǎn)投資目前的收縮尚且適當(dāng)，但是建筑業(yè)作為進(jìn)口原材料的使用大戶也出現(xiàn)了急劇下滑。Withmostoftheworldinrecession,China’sexportswillcontinuetoslidethisyear.Nomuraforecastsadropof6%—thefirstannualdeclineformorethan25years.Imports,ontheotherhand,areexpectedtoincrease.Bymid-year,thegovernment’splannedmassiveincreaseininfrastructurespendingwillboostimportsofrawmaterialsandmachinery.Ifso,China’stradesurpluswillshrinkin2009.隨著全球大部分地區(qū)陷入衰退，中國(guó)的出口今年將繼續(xù)下滑。野村證券預(yù)測(cè)的下滑是6%，為25年來(lái)的首次下滑。另一方面，進(jìn)口預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)。到年中時(shí)，政府計(jì)劃的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投入大幅增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)推動(dòng)原材料和機(jī)械進(jìn)口。這樣的話，中國(guó)2009年的貿(mào)易順差將會(huì)縮水。ThecollapseinexportsandtheconsequentjoblossesinsouthernChinahavetriggeredspeculationthatthegovernmentmighttrytopushdownthevalueoftheyuan.ButnotonlywouldthisprovokeaprotectionistbacklashfromAmerica’snewgovernment,itwouldalsodolittletohelpproducers.China’sproblemisweakforeigndemand,notcompetitiveness.ThebestwayforChinatosupportitseconomy—andtohelpunwindglobaltradeimbalances—istobolsterdomesticdemand.出口劇減加上隨之而來(lái)的中國(guó)南方的失業(yè)會(huì)導(dǎo)致政府考慮人民幣貶值。但這將不僅激起美國(guó)新政府的保護(hù)主義反彈，對(duì)生產(chǎn)者也幫助甚小。中國(guó)的問(wèn)題是在于疲軟的國(guó)外需求，而不是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。支持中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至幫助全球貿(mào)易擺脫不平衡的方法，是加強(qiáng)內(nèi)需。Onepieceofgoodnewsthisweekisthat,followinginterest-ratecutsandthegovernment’sscrappingofcreditrestrictions,totalbankloansjumpedby19%inthe12monthstoDecember,upfromgrowthof14%lastsummer.Chinaisperhapstheonlybigeconomywherecreditgrowthhasheatedupinrecentmonths.Ifthatissustained,itcouldhelptoboostdomesticspending.本周的一個(gè)好消息是：隨著減息和政府去除信貸限制，銀行信貸總額到12月的12個(gè)月中從去年夏天的14%猛增19%。中國(guó)也許是最近幾個(gè)月內(nèi)世界大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中唯一出現(xiàn)信貸增長(zhǎng)加速的地方。如果增速持續(xù)，它將促進(jìn)內(nèi)需支出。Chinacertainlycannotrelyonexportsanymore.Becomingtheworld’sbiggestexporterwillbeoflittlecomfortifglobaltradeisspirallingdownwards.中國(guó)決不能再依賴出口。如果全球貿(mào)易持續(xù)下降，成為世界最大的出口國(guó)亦將無(wú)益。（三）China'sstimulusGotalight經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇已被點(diǎn)燃China’sbigfiscalpackagemaybestartingtowork中國(guó)龐大的財(cái)政措施可能已經(jīng)起效“ONLYwhenallcontributetheirfirewoodcantheybuildupastrongfire,”saysaChineseproverb.Withtheworldeconomyinitsworstcrisisin70years,everycountryneedstodoitsbittorekindleglobaldemand.TheAmericangovernment,whichplanstorunabudgetdeficitof12%ofGDPthisyear,hascalledonitsGroupof20partnerstodomore.IsChinaoneofthemisersItsbudget,publishedlastweek,showedthatitplanstorunadeficitofonly3%ofGDP.Wasthe4trillionyuan($586billion)infrastructurepackageunveiledlastNovember,worth14%ofGDP,asham中國(guó)有句民諺：“眾人拾柴火焰高。”隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入70年以來(lái)的最大危機(jī)，要重燃全球需求之火，各國(guó)都責(zé)無(wú)旁貸。美國(guó)政府計(jì)劃今年運(yùn)行占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值12%的財(cái)政赤字，并號(hào)召二十國(guó)集團(tuán)的伙伴們作出更多行動(dòng)。中國(guó)是其中的吝嗇鬼嗎？它在上周公布的預(yù)算顯示，中國(guó)計(jì)劃運(yùn)行的財(cái)政赤字只占GDP的3%。難道去年十一月公布的4億元用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的措施——相當(dāng)于GDP的14%——僅僅是在忽悠？Beijing’sstimulusissmallerthanthenumberannouncedlastyear,butitisstillthebiggestintheworld.ThefactthatAmericaissettorunabudgetdeficitfourtimesthesizeofChina’sasashareofGDPdoesnotmeanitsdemandstimulusisbigger;Americastartedthisyearwithamuchbiggerdeficit.America’sdeficitwillincreasebymorethanChina’sthisyear,largelybecauseitissufferingadeeperrecessionwhichwilldepresstaxrevenue.Thecorrectmeasureofafiscalstimulusisthechangeinthebudgetdeficitadjustedfortheimpactoftheeconomiccycle.北京的刺激計(jì)劃小于去年公布的數(shù)字，但這依然是世界范圍內(nèi)最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案。盡管美國(guó)運(yùn)行的財(cái)政赤字是中國(guó)的四倍，但這并不意味著它的需求性刺激計(jì)劃就更大。美國(guó)從今年開(kāi)始就保持了巨大的財(cái)政赤字，并且年內(nèi)赤字增長(zhǎng)將高于中國(guó)。這主要是因?yàn)槊绹?guó)遭受的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退極大地減少了稅收。財(cái)政刺激方案的正確措施應(yīng)該是調(diào)整財(cái)政赤字以適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)圈的沖擊。InChina,however,eventhiswouldunderstatethetruestimulus,becausesomepublic-infrastructureinvestmentwillbedonebystate-ownedfirmsorlocalgovernmentsandfinancedbybanks.TaoWangofUBSestimatesthatnewinfrastructureinvestment,taxcuts,consumersubsidiesandincreasedspendingonhealthcarewillamounttoastimulusbythecentralgovernmentofabout3%ofGDPin2009.Addinginbank-financedinfrastructurespendingmightliftthetotalto4%ofGDP.然而在中國(guó)，經(jīng)濟(jì)赤字掩蓋了真實(shí)的刺激方案，因?yàn)橐恍┕不A(chǔ)設(shè)施投資是由銀行提供資金、國(guó)有公司或地方政府實(shí)施的。瑞銀的陶旺（音）預(yù)計(jì)，新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、減稅、消費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼以及醫(yī)療方面的投資增長(zhǎng)將構(gòu)成總額占到GDP3%的09年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由銀行提供資金支持的基建支出，整個(gè)刺激方案將占到GDP的4%。Chineseinvestmentinrailways,roadsandpowergridsisalreadybooming.Inthefirsttwomonthsofthisyear,totalfixedinvestmentwas30%higherinrealtermsthanayearearlier,andinvestmentinrailwaystripled.Chinahasbeenmuchcriticisedforfocusingitsstimulusoninvestment,ratherthanconsumption,butinChinaintheshorttermthisisthequickestwaytoboostdomesticdemand.中國(guó)在鐵路、公路和電網(wǎng)方面的投資已經(jīng)大規(guī)模展開(kāi)。今年頭兩個(gè)月內(nèi)，固定投資總額較去年同期增長(zhǎng)30%，鐵路投資增長(zhǎng)了3倍。很多批評(píng)認(rèn)為，中國(guó)的刺激方案集中于投資而不是消費(fèi)，但就短期來(lái)看，在中國(guó)這是提高國(guó)內(nèi)需求最立竿見(jiàn)影的方式。Whatabouttheothertoolforboostingdomesticspending,namelymonetarypolicySincethestartoflastyear,ChinahascutitsinterestratesbyonlyhalfasmuchasAmerica’sFederalReservehas.Newfiguresshowingthatconsumerpricesfellby%intheyeartoFebruaryhavebroughtthefirstwhiffofdeflation,suggestingthatChinahasnotdoneenoughtoboostdemand.Butthisisnottruedeflation,wherefallingpricesareaccompaniedbyshrinkingmoneysupplyandcredit.Banklendinggrewby24%overthepastyear.Thetruegaugeofmonetaryeasingisnotthecutininterestrates,butwhetheritsucceedsinspurringnewlending.Chinaisoneofthefewcountriesintheworldwherecredithasacceleratedsincethestartoftheglobalcreditcrunch—thoughsomeofthelendingisofthestate-directedsort.那么作為提高國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)另一手段的貨幣政策又運(yùn)用的怎樣？從去年年初開(kāi)始，中國(guó)已經(jīng)將利率砍到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的一半。新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字顯示，到二月，消費(fèi)品價(jià)格較去年下降了%，從而帶來(lái)了第一輪通貨緊縮。這似乎意味著中國(guó)在提高需求方面做的尚且不夠。但其實(shí)，這并不是真正的通貨緊縮。真正的通縮情況下，貨幣供應(yīng)和信貸會(huì)隨著物價(jià)下降而萎縮。去年，銀行借貸增長(zhǎng)了24%。對(duì)銀根放松的正確估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借貸產(chǎn)生。中國(guó)作為世界上少有的幾個(gè)國(guó)家，其借貸規(guī)模在全球信貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)后不降反升——盡管部分借貸是在國(guó)家指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行的。Chinahasnotonlyaccomplishedconsiderablefiscalandmonetaryeasing.Byallowingtheyuantoriseby18%intrade-weightedtermsoverthepast12months,Beijingispassingonsomeofthatboosttotherestoftheworld.中國(guó)不僅完成了規(guī)模可觀的財(cái)政和銀根放松計(jì)劃，還通過(guò)讓人民幣在過(guò)去12個(gè)月內(nèi)升值18%（貿(mào)易加權(quán)考慮在內(nèi)），部分促進(jìn)了世界貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。TherealquestioniswhetherChina’sstimulusisbigenough

Exportsfellbyasharper-than-expected26%intheyeartoFebruaryandmayyetdropfurther.The12-monthrateofgrowthinindustrialproductionalsodroppedtoonly%inthefirsttwomonthsof2009,andretail-salesgrowthslowedto15%.Buttherearesometentativesignsofarecoveryindomesticdemand.Aswellastheincreasesininvestmentandbanklending,carsalesandelectricityconsumptionhavepickedup.MingchunSunofNomurareckonsthatthestimuluswillbeenoughtoachieve8%growththisyear.Butthegovernmenthasmadeitclearthatiftheeconomyremainsfeeble,itwillsupplyanotherfiscalboost.真正的問(wèn)題是：中國(guó)的貿(mào)易刺激方案數(shù)量是否已經(jīng)夠大？到今年二月，年出口額下降遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期，達(dá)26%，并且可能繼續(xù)下挫。工業(yè)生產(chǎn)12個(gè)月增幅在09年頭兩個(gè)月已將至%，零售業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩至15%。但是仍然有一些國(guó)內(nèi)需求復(fù)蘇的暫時(shí)性指標(biāo)。除了投資和銀行貸款增長(zhǎng)外，汽車銷售和電力消費(fèi)同樣得到提振。野村證券的孫明春（音）認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)8%的年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。但是政府已經(jīng)明確表示，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)疲軟，將會(huì)提供另外的財(cái)政提振方案。Suchinjectionsmaybeabletodraggrowthbackto8%thisyear,buttheycannotkeeptheeconomyrunningatthispaceifglobaldemandremainsdepressed.TheneedforChinatoshiftthemixofgrowthfromexportstoconsumptionhasbecomemoreurgent.Chineseofficialsarerighttosaythatitwilltakeyearsforhigherpublicspendingonhealthcareandasocialsafetynettoreducehouseholdsaving—allthemorereasontospeedupsuchpolicies.Ifnot,evenChina’sfirecouldburnout.這些注入或許可以把今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)拉回到8%，但如果全球需求持續(xù)悲觀，增速便難以維持。對(duì)于中國(guó)而言，出口轉(zhuǎn)內(nèi)銷的需要已經(jīng)更加緊迫。中國(guó)官員正確地表示，將會(huì)用數(shù)年時(shí)間增量投資公共衛(wèi)生和社保體系以降低居民存款，使得這些政策的加速實(shí)施更加名正言順。否則，即便是中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)火焰也會(huì)被撲滅。（四）Theeconomy'sstumble經(jīng)濟(jì)的絆足Airpocketorseconddip?氣囊保護(hù)還是二次淪陷？Oct8th2009|WASHINGTON,DCFromTheEconomistprinteditionAslumpinSeptemberpromptsthoughtsofnewstimulus9月經(jīng)濟(jì)大跌，新刺激方案提上日程AFTERridingawaveofimprovementsincethespring,theeconomystumbledinSeptemberaccordingtothelatestfigures.Non-farmemploymentsankby263,000,whichwas62,000morethaninAugust,andtheunemploymentrateroseby%to%.Carsalestumbledasthefederal“cash-for-clunkers”programmeexpired.Manufacturingactivitycooledabit.根據(jù)最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，從春季開(kāi)始一路高歌猛進(jìn)的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在9月大幅下跌。非農(nóng)業(yè)職位減少了萬(wàn)個(gè)，降幅較8月增加了萬(wàn)個(gè)，失業(yè)率升至%，增幅%。汽車銷量在聯(lián)邦“舊車換現(xiàn)金”計(jì)劃結(jié)束后陡降。制造業(yè)略有放緩。Allthisisprobablyanairpocket;overalleconomicoutputalmostcertainlybegantoriseinthethirdquarteroftheyearandemploymentwilleventuallyfollow.Leadingindicatorssuchasthestockmarketandnewclaimsforunemploymentbenefitsaresignalingrecovery.Butitistakingapainfullylongtime.“Wewillneedtogrindoutthisrecoverystepbystep,”acknowledgedBarackObamaonOctober3rd,thedayafterthejobdatawerereleased.Toaddinsulttoinjury,theBureauofLabourStatisticsconcludedthattheeconomylost824,000morejobsintheyeartoMarchthanithadoriginallythought.Thatwouldraisetherecession’stollsofarto8m,or%oftheworkforce.Assumingnofurtherrevisions,therecessionnowholdsthehonourofthemostseveresincetheSecondWorldWar—exceedingeventhe5%lossrecordedin1948.這一切或許是如“氣囊”一般的保護(hù)性反應(yīng)；今年第三季度，經(jīng)濟(jì)總量確已開(kāi)始上升，就業(yè)率最終也將隨之跟進(jìn)。證券市場(chǎng)以及新失業(yè)津貼政策等主要指標(biāo)都預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)的回暖。然而，前路漫漫。“我們需要逐步恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)，”巴拉克?奧巴馬在就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布的第二天（10月3日）承認(rèn)說(shuō)。雪上加霜的是，勞動(dòng)統(tǒng)計(jì)局表示，截至今年5月，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)比預(yù)想的進(jìn)一步減少了萬(wàn)個(gè)職位。這使得經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退造成的總失業(yè)人數(shù)達(dá)到了800萬(wàn)，占勞動(dòng)力的%。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)停止進(jìn)一步惡化，那這將是自二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退——其損失超過(guò)了1948年所記載的GDP的5%。Thebiggerproblemisthatonceemploymentgrowthresumes,itwillprobablyremainanaemic.Morethanhalfofbusinessessaytheywillnotreturntopre-recessionstaffinglevelsuntil2012,ifever,accordingtoaSeptembersurveyofchieffinancialofficersbyDukeUniversityandCFOMagazine,asisterpublicationofTheEconomist.Fully43%stillplantocullpayrollsinthenext12months.更大的問(wèn)題在于，就業(yè)一旦增加，它仍有可能持續(xù)疲軟。根據(jù)杜克大學(xué)及《CFOMagazine》雜志（與《TheEconomist》同屬一家公司）財(cái)務(wù)長(zhǎng)在9月的一份報(bào)告，超過(guò)半數(shù)的公司表示即使其人員編制有所回升，但在2012年之前不會(huì)回到衰退前的水平。共有43%的公司計(jì)劃在未來(lái)的12個(gè)月中繼續(xù)裁減人手。MrObamaandhisadvisersareconsideringnewmeasurestoboosttheeconomy.Thesewillnotbeonthescaleofthisyear’s$787billionstimulusprogramme,whichwillinanycasecontinuetoinjectmoneyintotheeconomyuntiltheendofnextyear.Morelikely,hewillseektocontinuesomeprovisionsofthestimulusbill,suchasextendingunemploymentbenefitsforlaid-offworkersandsubsidiestoallowthemtokeeptheirhealthinsurance.奧巴馬先生和他的顧問(wèn)們正考慮新的經(jīng)濟(jì)提振措施，但其規(guī)模將不及今年7870億美元的刺激計(jì)劃，后者于明年年底之前將不遺余力的不斷向經(jīng)濟(jì)注入資金。可能性更大的是，他將延續(xù)刺激方案中的某些條款，如下崗職工失業(yè)津貼擴(kuò)面以及健康保險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)助等。Theretreatincarsaleswhencash-for-clunkersendedwasajarringreminderofthewithdrawalsymptomsthatawaitwhenotherstimulusmeasures,suchasthehomebuyer’scredit,areallowedtoexpire.Butextendingthemwouldboostasoaringdeficitthatisestimatedtohavehit$billioninthefiscalyearthatendedonSeptember30th.Votersarenervousaboutredinkstretchingawayintothefuture,andevenMrObama’sliberalsupportersareturninguptheheat.ThisweekNancyPelosi,theSpeakeroftheHouseofRepresentatives,saidavalue-addedtaxshouldbe“onthetable”.Itmayyetcometothat,thoughintroducingsuchataxtooearlywouldriskchokingofftherecoveryandcreatingabrandnewtaxthatwouldgivethepresident’senemiesafield-day.Noonesaidhisjobwaseasy.“舊車換現(xiàn)金”計(jì)劃結(jié)束所帶來(lái)的汽車銷量下降預(yù)示了在諸如購(gòu)房貸款等刺激措施期滿結(jié)束后經(jīng)濟(jì)所將經(jīng)歷的退縮癥狀。但是，如果繼續(xù)實(shí)行此類措施，那將會(huì)為9月30日截止的本財(cái)政年帶來(lái)預(yù)計(jì)高達(dá)14億美元的財(cái)政赤字。選民們對(duì)未來(lái)源源不斷的財(cái)政赤字憂心忡忡，甚至是奧巴馬先生的自由派支持者都在火上澆油。本周，眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希?佩洛西表示，征收增值稅應(yīng)該“提上日程”。增值稅遲早會(huì)付諸實(shí)施。然而，過(guò)早的出臺(tái)此類稅收將有可能阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)，同時(shí)，征收新稅將會(huì)為總統(tǒng)的勁敵們提供反擊機(jī)會(huì)。大家都知道，奧巴馬先生過(guò)得不容易。（五）Signsofeconomiccheer經(jīng)濟(jì)振奮之征兆Thesunalsorises太陽(yáng)照常升起Aug6th2009|WASHINGTON,DCFromTheEconomistprinteditionTheeconomymaybepullingoutofrecessionbutunemploymentisstillsurprisinglyhigh.Celebrationsshouldbedelayed雖然美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能正從衰退中抽身而出，但是失業(yè)率仍然居高不下，慶祝理應(yīng)押后。WHENBarackObamavisitedElkhart,Indiana,inearlyFebruary,afewweeksafterhisinauguration,itwasasombreaffair.Intheprevious12monthsthearea’sunemploymentratehadmorethantripledto%.Thepresidentpleadedforthepassageofamassivefiscalstimulus,insistingthat“doingnothingisnotanoption.”BythetimehereturnedtoElkhartonAugust5thhewasquiteabitsunnier.Localfactoriesare“comingbacktolife”,heproclaimed.Afewdaysearlierhehaddeclaredtheeconomytohavedone“measurablybetter”thanexpected.在早前的2月份，就職數(shù)周的奧巴馬總統(tǒng)到訪了印第安娜州的埃爾德哈特。總統(tǒng)此行籠罩著一層陰郁的氣氛，因?yàn)樵诖饲暗氖€(gè)月當(dāng)中，當(dāng)?shù)氐氖I(yè)率達(dá)到了%，是原來(lái)的三倍還多。總統(tǒng)隨即懇求通過(guò)大規(guī)模財(cái)政刺激方案，并堅(jiān)持說(shuō)，“絕不能坐以待斃。”8月5日，當(dāng)再次來(lái)到埃爾德哈特時(shí)總統(tǒng)心情愉悅了一些，他表示本地工廠正在“恢復(fù)生機(jī)。”幾天之前，他已經(jīng)宣布了經(jīng)濟(jì)已比預(yù)期有“顯著好轉(zhuǎn)”的消息。MrObama’sgoodspiritsarewellgrounded:America’srecessionappearstobecomingtoanend.OnJuly31stthegovernmentreportedthatrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)contractedinthesecondquarter,butatonlya1%annualrate.Muchofthatdeclinereflectedbusiness’sdeterminationtokeepfactoriesandworkersidleandfillnewordersoutofexistinginventory.Now,stocksaresodepletedthatproductionwillsoonhavetorestart.奧巴馬的好精神是有根有據(jù)的，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)的衰退似乎正趨于結(jié)束。7月31號(hào)的政府報(bào)告中指出，第二季度的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值雖然收縮，但僅為年率收縮1%。而此收縮很大程度上反映了暫時(shí)閑置工廠和工人，用存貨交付訂單的商業(yè)決策。現(xiàn)在存貨已經(jīng)消耗殆盡，恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)勢(shì)在必行。TheclutchofdatanowavailableforJulyhasstrengthenedexpectationsthatGDPwillriseinthecurrentquarterbyasmuchas3%.AnindexofmanufacturingactivityrosetoitshighestlevelsincelastAugust,andmanufacturersreportedthatnewordersweregrowingbriskly,thebestinovertwoyears.Carsalesjumped15%toanannualisedandmanufacturersarerampingupproduction.Salesofexistinghouseshaverisen.EvenbatteredElkhartgotsomegoodnews:onAugust4thDometic,asupplierofrecreational-vehicleparts,saidthatwithsomehelpfromlocalincentivesitwouldadd240jobstoitsoperationinthetown.現(xiàn)有的很多7月份數(shù)據(jù)都為之前的預(yù)期--本季度GDP將會(huì)增長(zhǎng)3%，提供了有力支持。制造業(yè)活躍指數(shù)提升到了8月份以來(lái)最高，制造商報(bào)告說(shuō)新訂單增長(zhǎng)活躍，達(dá)到兩年來(lái)最佳水平；汽車銷量飆升15%，按年率計(jì)達(dá)1,120萬(wàn)輛，制造商也正在加大生產(chǎn)；現(xiàn)房的銷售量有所提升。就連備受折磨的埃爾德哈特也有喜訊傳來(lái)：在8月4號(hào)，一個(gè)名為Dometic的游藝車部件供應(yīng)商說(shuō)，在本地刺激因素的幫助下，公司將在本市增添240個(gè)工作崗位。MrObamaandhisaideshavewastednotimeincreditingthe$787billionfiscalstimulusforspurringthisrecovery.Infactthestimulus’scontributionsofarhasbeenrelativelymodest.Moreimportantwaslastautumn’smassiveinjectionofpubliccapital,loansandloanguaranteesintothefinancialsystem,andthisspring’sbankstresstests.Thesestoppedthespiralofdecliningassetprices,creditwithdrawalsandbankfailuresthathadthreatenedtoturnarecessionintoadepression.為了刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)和他的助手們馬不停蹄地投入到了7870億美元的財(cái)政刺激計(jì)劃中。事實(shí)上，到目前為止這個(gè)刺激計(jì)劃似乎貢獻(xiàn)平平。相比之下，去年秋季金融體系的大規(guī)模公有資本注入，提供給金融體系的大量貸款和貸款擔(dān)保，以及今年春季的銀行壓力測(cè)試卻發(fā)揮了更大作用。這些措施阻止了急劇下滑的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格、信貸退出和銀行倒閉，將經(jīng)濟(jì)從衰退滑向大蕭條的危急關(guān)頭中拉了回來(lái)。OneofthemostencouragingbitsofnewsisthattheS&P/Case-Shiller20-cityindexofhousepricesfelljust%betweenAprilandMay,thesmallestfallintwoyears.Stablehousepriceswoulddowondersinreducingloandelinquencies,shoringupthebanks’balance-sheetsandrestoringtheflowofcredit.最振奮人心的消息莫過(guò)于在4月到5月之間S&P/Case-Shiller（美國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)的領(lǐng)先衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)）20大城市房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)僅下跌%，是兩年來(lái)最小幅度。穩(wěn)定的房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)減少貸款拖欠會(huì)起到奇效，還可以支撐銀行的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，起到恢復(fù)信貸流動(dòng)的作用。Despitethegoodnews,MrObama’sapprovalratings,thoughhigh,areslipping.This,inpart,isbecausethesinglemostimportanteconomicbenchmark,employment,remainsgrim,surprisinglyso.Unemploymentusuallyrespondstoeconomicgrowthinarelationshipthatwascapturedbyaneconomist,ArthurOkun,inthe1960s.ButithasrisenmoreduringthisrecessionthanmostformulationsofOkun’sLawwouldsuggest.消息有好有壞，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)的支持率雖然仍然算高，但是正處于下滑狀態(tài)，部分原因應(yīng)歸咎于并無(wú)好轉(zhuǎn)的就業(yè)形勢(shì)（就業(yè)是一項(xiàng)最為重要的單一經(jīng)濟(jì)基準(zhǔn)），在經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)的前提下這樣的就業(yè)形勢(shì)著實(shí)令人吃驚。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家亞瑟?dú)W坤在十九世紀(jì)六十年代捕捉到，失業(yè)率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有關(guān)并通常隨之做出反應(yīng)。但是在此次衰退中，失業(yè)率的上升幅度遠(yuǎn)比歐坤法則的眾多公式推導(dǎo)出的幅度大的多。ThepublicationlastweekofrevisionstoearlierGDPdataexplainssomeofthediscrepancy.TherevisionsshowthatGDPhasdeclinedacumulative%sincetheendof2007,thustyingwith1957-58asthedeepestrecessionsincetheDepression(beforetheserevisions,thedeclinewasshowntobe%).Evenso,MichaelFeroli,aneconomistatJPMorganChase,saysthatOkun’sLawwouldhavepredictedanunemploymentrateofjust%duringthesecondquarter,whereasitactuallyaveraged%.上周公布的GDP修改數(shù)據(jù)可以解釋一些不符之處。修改數(shù)據(jù)顯示自2007年底GDP累計(jì)下降%，可堪比發(fā)生在1957到58年自大蕭條以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的衰退（修改前的數(shù)據(jù)顯示下降僅為%）。即便如此，摩根大通的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家邁克爾?費(fèi)拉里說(shuō)，按照歐坤法則預(yù)測(cè)第二季度的失業(yè)率應(yīng)僅為%，而實(shí)際的失業(yè)率達(dá)到平均%。Severalfactorsareatwork.Expandedunemployment-insurancebenefitsencouragesomeworkerstokeeplookingforajobratherthandropoutoftheworkforcealtogether,addingperhapshalfapercentagepointtotheunemploymentrate,accordingtotheFed.Theeviscerationoftheirwealthmayhaveledpeopletolookforworkratherthanretireorstayathomewiththechildren.成因存在于幾方面。擴(kuò)大的失業(yè)保險(xiǎn)收益鼓勵(lì)著一些人繼續(xù)尋找工作而不是徹底退出勞動(dòng)大軍。根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)消息，這部分人口大約占失業(yè)率的%。做了財(cái)富切除手術(shù)的人們更可能選擇找工作而不是退休或回家?guī)Ш⒆印ndfirmshavebeenunusuallyquicktoslashpayrolls.Somemaybehusbandingcashmorecarefullybecauseofthecreditcrunch.Othersmaysimplybemorepessimisticaboutaneventualrecovery.Whateverthereason,oneresultisthatproductivityisrising,cushioningprofitmargins.RobertHallof