ExternalFactorinRealEstateMarkets

房地產市場的外在因素ChengriDingAssociateProfessorNationalCenterforSmartGrowthUniversityofMarylandSpecialAssistantToPresidentofLincolnInstituteofLandPolicy’sChinaProgram丁成日博士,副教授馬里蘭大學城市規劃系馬里蘭大學城市理性增長國家中心總裁特別助理林肯土地政策研究院中國項目部Outline大綱ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets房地產市場的外在因素 HighestandBestPrinciple 最高與最佳原則ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社會和經濟力量的影響ExternalFactorsofPropertyMarkets

房地產市場的外在因素2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis

區域與社區分析3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis

鄰里單元價值分析4.LandUsePlanning

土地利用規劃

PoliticalForcesinfluencingValue政治因素影響價值Propertyrightsandownership財產權和所有權ThefifthandFourteenthAmendmentsinUS美國第五和第十四修正案Federalfinancingaidsandfiscalpolicycontrols聯邦財政補助和財政控制Rateofinterests利率ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社會和經濟力量的影響SocialForcesinfluencingValue社會因素影響價值Populationgrowthrate(timelyandspatially)人口增長率（時間與空間）Demographiccomposition(age,race,gender,income)人口構成（年齡、種族、性別和收入）Housingpreference(Housing/per1000people)住房偏好（住房/千人）ImpactofPolitical,Social,andEconomicForces

政治、社會和經濟力量的影響

GeneralEconomicforcesInfluencingValue影響價值的經濟因素Grossnationalproduct國民生產總值Percapitaincomeandrealwagelevels人均收入和實際收入水平Unemploymentasameasureoffullemployment.Correlationbetweenunemployment,propertyforeclosures,andpropertytaxdelinquencies失業率衡量就業水平。失業率，喪失贖回權和拖欠財產稅的相關性Personalsavingandinvestments個人存款和投資Generalbusinessandrealestateactivity主要商業和地產活動StateandRegionalForcesInfluencingValue國家和區域因素影響價值Differentialsofpolicyandlaw政策和法律差異Differentialsofeconomicprospective經濟遠景差異etc.等等GovernmentToolsintheRealEstateMarket

房地產市場中的政府手段Analyzehowgovernmentactionsaffectpropertyvalueandmakeappropriatechanges分析政府行為如何影響房地產價值并促其變化Monitormarketactivitytoqueueproposals,lesseningtheboom/bustcycle監控市場行為以排序發展次序，減緩漲跌循環Useeconomicdevelopmentpoliciestoattractusesthatfitwiththeregion’smasterplan使用經濟發展政策來引導土地使用，其方式與強度與區域總體規劃相一至LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue

地方政府和房地產價值Abilitytoprovideserviceaffectsvalue服務能力影響價值Crimerate犯罪率Fireprotection火警預防Easeofdoingbusinessaffectsvalue從事商務活動的方便性影響價值Propertytaxrate房地產稅率Regulatoryenvironment政策規范環境Liquorlicense酒精飲料銷售許可Zoningrequirements分區要求LocalGovernmentandPropertyValue

地方政府和房地產價值Externalitiesfromnearbyusesaffectvalue周圍環境等外在因素影響環境Noisefromairports機場噪聲Pollutionfromfactories工廠污染MonitoringLandMarketActivity

監控土地市場活動Goalistopreventoverbuildingthatleadstovacancies,disinvestment,andblight目標在于防止建設過度而導致空置、蝕本和經濟衰落Stillneedtoencouragecommercialdevelopmenttoincreasepropertytaxbaseandpromoteeconomicdevelopment仍需要鼓勵商業開發以增加房地產稅基數和促進經濟發展MonitoringLandMarketActivity監控土地市市場活動PolicyTool:DevelopmentQueuing政策工具：：開發次序序Plannersacceptproposalsandgrantpermissiontobuildonlyifmarketconditionsindicatethatdemandcanabsorbthenewspace規劃師審查查規劃方案案，僅審批批那些市場場可以消化化的建設Plannersestimatemarketconditionsthroughtraditionalmeans–gatheringdataaboutrents,vacancyrates,currentconstruction,jobgrowth,andspendingpatterns規劃師采用用傳統方式式——收集租金數數據，空置置率，建設設現狀，就就業率增長長和消費模模式——來估計市場場形勢TheRealEstateMarket房地產市場場Immobility固定性Indestructibility不可破壞性性non-homogeneity異質性Propertydissimilarityimposesspecialmarketconditions房地產的差差異性形成成了特殊的的市場條件件durabilityofrealestatecausesmal-adjustmentsinbothsupplyanddemandonalocalmarketlevel房地產的持持續性導致致對地方市市場供求的的不當調整整Studyingtheunderlyingforcescreatingsupplyanddemandforrealproperty研究形成房房地產供求求的潛在力力量2.RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區域和社區區分析CauseofUrbanization城市化的結結果CitySpatialFormandGrowth城市空間形形態和增長長RegionalAnalysis區域分析Regionalanalysistechniques:economicbaseanalysis,regionalinput-outputanalysis區域分析方方法：經濟濟基礎分析析，區域投投入產出分分析PopulationTrendsandCharacteristics人口趨勢和和特征EconomicMeasuresofCommunityGrowth社區增長的的經濟量化化LandUsePattern土地利用模模式RegionalandCommunityAnalysis區域和社區區分析NeighborhoodDefined鄰里的定義義TheNeighborhoodAgeCycle鄰里單元的的周期3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis鄰里單元價價值分析NeighborhoodCharacteristics鄰里單元的的特征Physicalfeatures物質特征Demographiccharacteristics人口特征Economicinfluences經濟影響3.NeighborhoodValueAnalysis鄰里單元價價值分析4.LandUsePlanning——Zoning土地利用規規劃——分區Density密度Use使用Intensity強度Location區位UrbanBidRentAgriculturalRentDistancefromCenterPeriodIIIPeriodIII:DemolitionDensityControl--FloorAreaRatio密度控制——容積率CBDUrbanEdge$PeriodIPeriodIIPeriodIII:UrbanRedevelopmentWhatwillhappentotherelationbetweenlandvalueandbuildingvalueifbuildingheightlimitisimposed?WoB.H.L.WB.H.L.LandUseRightsintheUnitedStates美國土地使使用權Landamarketablecommodity土地是可交交易商品Bundleofsticks權利束Usedeterminedbyhigherbidder.最高報價者者決定使用用Stateshaverightstocontrollandusetoprotecthealth,safety,morals,andwelfare州政府有權權控制土地地使用以保保護健康、、安全、道道德和福利利。Moststatesdelegateauthoritytolocalgovernments.多數州下放放權利至地地方政府ObjectivesofZoning分區的目的的ControlExternalities控制形態ProtectFarmland保護農田ComplementInfrastructure完善基礎設設施Maximizetaxbase最大化稅收收基數PreserveCommunityCharacter保護社區個個性Excludetheunwanted消除閑置土土地AllowableUseZoningandUrbanLandMarkets允許使用的的分區和城城市土地市市場Landallocationdeterminedbymarketforcesintheabsenceofzoning.沒有分區規規劃時土地地資源分配配由市場決決定Marketallocationcanbeimperfectinthepresenceofexternalities在外部效應應存在的情情形下，市市場分配配結果有缺缺陷Zoningcanbeusedtocorrectexternalitiesortomisguideawell-functioningmarket.分區規劃可可以糾正外外部效應或或者誤導運運作良好的的市場Landpricescanbeusedtodetermineifzoninghasimpacts.土地價格可可以用于決決定是否分分區規劃對對房地產產產生影響Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandTotallandRcRrRc*Rr*Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandRcRrRc’Commercialrents$Residentialrents$CommerciallandResidentiallandRcRrRr*Rc*DensityZoningandUrbanLandMarkets密度分區和和城市土地地市場Landrentgradientsw/odensityzoning沒有密度分分區時的土土地租金梯梯度Landrentgradientsw/densityzoning有密度分區區時的土地地租金梯度度Thepriceeffectsofdensityzoning密度分區的的價格影響響Thewelfareeffectsofdensityzoning密度分區的的福利影響響HighestandBestUsePrinciple最高與最好好使用原則則Concepts概念Presentvalue現在價值Amortization分期償還Value,capitalrate,andrent(Netoperatingincome—rent)價值，資金金率和租金金（凈收益益——租金）Futurevalue(=0)未來價值2.Highestandbestuseanalysis最高與最佳佳使用分析析HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高與最好好分析Thehighestandbestuseofvacantland閑置土地的的最高與最最佳使用Thehighestandbestuseoftheimprovedsite已開發土地地的最高與與最佳原則則HighestandBestUseAnalysis最高與與最好好分析析Fourcriteria:四項條條件：：Physicalpossible:size,shape,terrain,capacity,availabilityofutilitiesetc.物質上上可行行：尺尺寸，，形態態，地地形，，容量量，服服務設設施等等Legallypermissible:restriction,zoning,buildingcodes,environmentalregulationsandotherslaws.法律上上允許許：限限制，，分區區，建建筑規規范，，環境境規則則和其其他法法律Financialfeasible:iftheprojectproduceanincomeorreturnequaltoorgreaterthantheamountneededtocovercosts.經濟上上可行行：如如果項項目產產出等等于或或大于于投入入Maximallyproductive.最大生生產率率ApartmentOfficeRetail公寓辦辦公零零售Costofconstruction$1,021,600$928,000$817,300建設投投資Effectivegrossincome有效毛毛收入入$265,000$200,000$180,000Operatingexpenses-$135,000-$80,000-$69,000運營費費用--------------------------------------------$130,000$120,000$111,000Assuminga20year-yearlifeforthebuilding,thenPV=thecostofconstruction,FV=0,i=1,n=20.HighestandBestUseforaVacantLot閑置土土地的的最高高與最最佳使使用ForApartment:NOItoland=NOIoftotal-buildingamortizationcost$10,000=$130,000-$120,000SiteValue:V=R/I=10,000/0.10=$100,000ApartmentOfficeRetailIncometobuilding@10%$120,000$109,000$96,000Incometosite$10,000$11,000$15,000Indicatedsitevalue@10%$100,000$110,000$150,000SoRetailhasthehighestvalueforthesiteHighestandBestUseofAPropertyasImproved房地產產更新新的最最高與與最佳佳原則則Thealternativesare不同方方案:Renovatetheexistingstores,spending$20,000更新現現存商商店，，花2萬美元元Converttheexistingspacetooffices,spending$40,000改成辦辦公，，花4萬Demolishandconstructanewbuilding.拆除，，建設設新辦辦公樓樓ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgAcquisitionprice$200,000$200,000$200,000Renovationcost$20,000$40,0000Constructioncost00$700,000Demolishcost00$30,000Totalcosts$220,000$240,000$930,000Theacquisitionpricewillbeallocated80percenttoimprovementand20percenttoland.PV=buildingcosts,FV=0,i=10,n=estimatedeconomiclife.ExistingDemolish,UseConvertedConstruct(retail)OfficeNewBlgBuildingcost(80%)$160,000$160,000$0Newconstruction20,00040,000700,000TotalA