1、Lean thinking of L/T: The confusion of safety timeLead time的精益思考：安全時(shí)間的迷思A good definition of a problem, weve half solved it already. -John Dewey良好的定義問題，問題已經(jīng)解決了一半。 -約翰·杜威During daily discussing, it is easy to make consensus with shorting Lead time, but a lot of friends feel confused for complex

2、holistic problem and transfer them to me .From this article, I want to discuss some hot subjects. 日常和大家的討論中，發(fā)現(xiàn)大家對于要縮短Lead time都非常認(rèn)可，但對于整體的復(fù)雜問題存在比較多的困惑，并將這些疑問轉(zhuǎn)給了我，本文開始，我希望能和大家一起探討其中一些引起大家熱烈爭論的問題。Firstly, Id like to summarize the conclusions from the first two articles:1. Our core problem is we dont h

3、ave DCE（Decisive competitive edge, it means we must meet one or more significant sustainable customers demand beyond competitors very much and it is difficult to copy in a short time.）to obtain orders continuously. 2. Rapid delivery ability is DCE, it will be obvious appeal to any market segment.3.

4、We must cut down Lead time, we can make significant improvement in short term and use minimum investment. 首先我先總結(jié)一下上兩篇文章的主要結(jié)論：1、 我們面臨的核心問題是：沒有決定性的競爭優(yōu)勢來持續(xù)獲得訂單。2、 項(xiàng)目的快交優(yōu)勢是決定性的競爭優(yōu)勢，對任何細(xì)分市場都會有明顯的吸引力。3、 建立快交優(yōu)勢必須要縮短Lead time，我們可以在極小的投資的前提下短期內(nèi)取得巨大成績。By cutting down Lead time, we face not only one component

5、or on projects lead time, but a systematic problem, There is a broad consensus that if we want to improve the performance of our company we have to take a system approach. Then I want to discuss the systematic improve direction with all colleagues. 在縮短Lead time的道路上，我們面對的不是某個(gè)部套和某個(gè)項(xiàng)目的Lead time，而是一個(gè)系統(tǒng)問

6、題。廣泛的共識是想提高我們公司的績效應(yīng)該用系統(tǒng)的解決方法。接下來和大家探討一下Lead time的系統(tǒng)改善方向。We all know, our product need to go through a lot of dependent work station, one finished, last can be started, every process will add value till final delivery. In order to demonstrate it, I want to take an example. If we regard lead time as a

7、ggregated score of relay race, thus every process likes the race player. To achieve good results we have to do three things:1. Every player should be good enough2. Every player have same goal: the shortest aggregate time.3. Every player do they best to contribute to the common goal. 我們都知道，產(chǎn)品要經(jīng)過一系列相互

8、依存的工序才能完成加工，每個(gè)工序都會使產(chǎn)品增值，最終完成產(chǎn)品的交付。為了要示范，我來舉一個(gè)例子。如果把產(chǎn)品的Lead time看作接力賽的總成績的話，那么各工序就相當(dāng)于各個(gè)運(yùn)動員。要取得好成績必須做到三件事： 第一、每個(gè)運(yùn)動員有足夠的個(gè)人能力； 第二、每個(gè)運(yùn)動員的目標(biāo)要一致：總時(shí)間最短； 第三、每個(gè)運(yùn)動員都要發(fā)揮最大能力為整體目標(biāo)做貢獻(xiàn)；Please think about why not let each player run 400m separately, and then add each score together?請大家思考一下，為什么4×400m接力賽不讓4位選手分別

9、跑400m，再讓各自成績相加呢？Every player has lap time, but each player does not care about the lap time, and just try their best to run for team goal. A player is slower, the next player quickly will win back some time, but everybody's speed is shared team, every player to make some contribution, the entire

10、 team will have better results. This is a cooperative spirit of sports. 接力賽中每位選手雖然都有單圈成績，但每位選手并不關(guān)心單圈成績，而只是盡力的快跑，為了團(tuán)隊(duì)共同目標(biāo)奮力拼搏。一位選手慢些，下一位選手快些就會爭取回來一些時(shí)間，而大家的速度是團(tuán)隊(duì)共享的，每一位選手多做出些貢獻(xiàn)，整個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)就會有更好的成績。這是一種合作的體育精神。Unlike, let each player run 400m and the assessment is lap time respectively. If one player is not s

11、lowest one, how much odds that run as quickly as possible? Very low! If each player cannot share their speed, so it is easy to form a challenge culture. 而讓各位選手分別跑400m，如果考核大家的是各自的單圈時(shí)間。如果其中一位選手不是最慢的，他能更努力快跑的幾率能有多大呢？ 非常低！如果每位選手不能共享各自的速度，那么很容易形成一種指責(zé)的文化。Attention： The really important is the relay baton,

12、 not the race player. 注意：真正重要的是接力棒，而不是運(yùn)動員！QC master Dr. Deming pointed out in <Out of the Crisis >:” according to my experience, about 94% of the problems from the system inherent reasons, 6% is special because of abnormal cause, it is hard to get good result that improved in the noise.” 品管大師戴

13、明博士在轉(zhuǎn)危為安中指出：“根據(jù)我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，94%的問題來源于系統(tǒng)固有原因，6%才是異常造成的特殊因，在特殊因的雜音中改善很難得到效果“。Scanning our system model base on relay race inspiration: if Lead time management is relay race forms? If not, then we did not find the system reason and only improve in the noise. 我們根據(jù)接力賽的啟示來審視：我們的Lead time的系統(tǒng)模型是接力賽形式的管理嗎？如果不是，那么說明我

14、們沒有找到系統(tǒng)因，而只是在雜音中優(yōu)化。Standish Group, a famous investigation institution in US, show the research result in project management industry in 2000: the average Lead time beyond the original plan of 63%, the project has been completed 45% average costs exceed the budget, the project has been completed 64%

15、did not meet the delivery. 美國著名的研究機(jī)構(gòu)Standish Group在2000年對項(xiàng)目管理產(chǎn)業(yè)所進(jìn)行的調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)：平均Lead time超出原計(jì)劃的63%，已完成的項(xiàng)目平均成本超出預(yù)算45%，已完成的項(xiàng)目64%未符合交期。Not only our company, almost all project management enterprises in the world will face the same problem, the most famous example of that is the stadium that was in Montreal f

16、or the Olympic, they gave up the roof. Why most projects cannot be controlled in budget, consistent with the initial plan to finish on time? Most participants in the project management staff will say: too many customers change or alteration in the design, quality issues, supplier tardiness or qualit

17、y problem, priority too much controversy or commitment of resources often shortage etc. 不只是我們公司，世界上幾乎所有的項(xiàng)目管理型企業(yè)都會面臨相同的問題，最著名的例子是在蒙特利爾，為奧林匹克運(yùn)動會而蓋的體育館放棄了屋頂。為什么大部分項(xiàng)目無法在預(yù)算內(nèi)，符合初始計(jì)劃準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成？大部分參與項(xiàng)目管理的人員會說：太多的客戶變更或設(shè)計(jì)變更，品質(zhì)問題，供應(yīng)商拖期或質(zhì)量問題，優(yōu)先順序太多爭議，或承諾的資源經(jīng)常會短缺等等。Careful analysis of these problems has a characterist

18、ic, that is: Everything is not as we expected. Project management is called Uncertainty. 仔細(xì)分析這些問題都有一個(gè)特性，那就是：一切都不在我們預(yù)料之中。項(xiàng)目管理稱為不確定性（Uncertainty）因素。Yes, any project management enterprises have a huge magnitude of uncertainty. The question is: dont we know it exists? Of course we know, so how to deal w

19、ith our uncertainty? Two roads, one is to eliminate all fluctuations, but it requires a huge investment and it is difficult to be effective in a short time; another way is to set up the safety time to deal with the uncertainty factors, and programming the commitment of the project Lead time, project

20、 management call it : Risk Assessment. 沒錯(cuò)，任何項(xiàng)目管理型企業(yè)的不確定性都很大。問題是：我們難道不知道它的存在嗎？當(dāng)然知道，那么我們怎么應(yīng)對 不確定因素呢？兩條路，一是我們消除所有的波動，但需要巨大的投入，且在短期內(nèi)難以見效；另一條路是增加安全時(shí)間（Safety time）來應(yīng)對不確定性因素的發(fā)生，并以此規(guī)劃出可以承諾的項(xiàng)目周期，項(xiàng)目管理稱為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估（Risk assessment）。Setting up safety time, avoids the possible risk, why is hard to reach a commitment? W

21、here is the safe time effect? What if this system management method we used leads to safety time wasted, unable to deal with uncertainty? If it is, we can think about the system approach, let the viable commitment becomes true! 增加了安全時(shí)間，避開可能的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，為什么還是很難達(dá)成承諾？安全時(shí)間的效果何在？會不會是我們所用的系統(tǒng)管理方法造成了安全時(shí)間被浪費(fèi)掉，以致于無法應(yīng)對

22、不確定性因素。如果是，我們就可以思考系統(tǒng)的改善方案，將不可行的承諾變成可行！Each task will finish on time then the whole project will finish on time？It is right as a result, but we must challenge it if is as an assumption.試想這個(gè)問題：項(xiàng)目的每個(gè)任務(wù)都準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成，整個(gè)項(xiàng)目就準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成嗎？如果作為結(jié)果來說是沒有問題的，但是如果作為假設(shè)，我們需要挑戰(zhàn)一下。We tend to judge actions and decisions not according

23、 to the impact on the whole picture even though that is what we want to do, we tend to judge it according to the local impact. What we really want is the whole project finish on time ,not the each task. But how are we going to do? Setting up OTD examination in every process, an assumption to do so,

24、which is to ensure that each task is completed on time is the best way to make the whole project is completed on time. 我們在評估行為和決策時(shí)，是根據(jù)它們對局部的影響，而不是對整體的影響。我們真正希望的是整個(gè)項(xiàng)目準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成，而不是各個(gè)任務(wù)。但我們現(xiàn)在怎么做的呢？每一個(gè)工位都設(shè)有OTD考核，這么做就隱含了一個(gè)假設(shè)，那就是確保每項(xiàng)任務(wù)準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成是讓整個(gè)項(xiàng)目準(zhǔn)時(shí)完成最好的方法。Change Safety time by planning float or schedule floatMo

25、st of peoples behave is base how to measure them, since the KPI is OTD and the cost of each task, the people will focus on each task OTD and cost. As a manager, on one hand he will charge of the on time delivery of self-department, face of uncertainty he will put the safety time in his task. But on

26、the other hand he will continue to reduce costs, so he should cut down safety time, so that every manager is faced with a huge conflict. 絕大多數(shù)人是依據(jù)績效考核行事的，既然主要的KPI是每個(gè)任務(wù)的OTD和成本，絕大多數(shù)人都會關(guān)注各自任務(wù)的OTD和成本。對于一個(gè)管理者，一方面要對份內(nèi)任務(wù)的交期負(fù)責(zé)，面對不確定性因素，他會把安全時(shí)間添加在自己的任務(wù)內(nèi)。但另一方面他還要持續(xù)地降低成本，所以他應(yīng)該刪減安全時(shí)間，這樣每個(gè)管理者就面臨著一個(gè)巨大的沖突： If the a

27、ctual delivery can be done earlier than the commitment, as a manager, will be finished ahead of time? This time finished earlier, next time will have safety time enough? If the safety time is not enough, the next still can reach the delivery commitment? 如果實(shí)際可以比交期更早完成的情況下，作為一個(gè)管理者，會提前完成嗎？這次提前完成了，下次的安全

28、時(shí)間還會足夠嗎？如果安全時(shí)間不足夠，下次還能達(dá)成交期的承諾嗎？Attention! This mentality is not negative, is very responsible work attitude, as a responsible person for the work, must reach has pledged to do. In order to always reach the commitment, even if will have the ability to be finished ahead of time, the safety time still

29、to be wasted. 注意! 這種心態(tài)并不是消極的，恰恰是對工作非常負(fù)責(zé)的心態(tài)，作為一個(gè)對工作有責(zé)任感的人，必須要達(dá)成已承諾的事情。為了每次都達(dá)成承諾，即使可以有能力可以提前完成，也會把安全時(shí)間浪費(fèi)掉。 In fact, this is a very common phenomenon, it has another name: Parkinson's Law, the task in an organization will delay to the last moment. 事實(shí)上，這是一種非常普遍的現(xiàn)象，它有另一個(gè)名字：帕金森定律，組織中工作的完成會拖延到它所能允許的最后一

30、刻。Due to Parkinson's Law, the safety time of each task will be wasted. The odds of each task ahead of schedule may become very low, because of uncertainties, delays odds may become very high. 因?yàn)榕两鹕傻拇嬖冢總€(gè)步驟的安全時(shí)間都會被浪費(fèi)掉。相當(dāng)于每一個(gè)任務(wù)提前完成的可能變得很低，由于不確定性因素的存在，拖延的可能變得很高。Safety time should be used to prote

31、ct the whole project, not the individual tasks! 安全時(shí)間應(yīng)該用來保護(hù)整個(gè)項(xiàng)目，而非各個(gè)任務(wù)！Project Lead time improvement direction is: We must keep safety time available. Try to cut the safety time of each task to effectively resist the Parkinson phenomenon, the safety time will be transferred at the end of the project, let each task closely connected, each resourcing share the common safety time. At the same time we need to change the KPI fro