1、巴菲特談企業(yè)估值（1986年）范聞備注：全文摘自1986年巴菲特致股東信的附錄部分，原汁原味。為方便深刻理解巴菲特的投資理念，特采用中英文對(duì)照方式。這是巴菲特本人對(duì)企業(yè)估值的一次全面闡釋。全文如下：Appendix   附錄Purchase-Price Accounting Adjustments and the "Cash Flow" Fallacy    購(gòu)買(mǎi)法會(huì)計(jì)調(diào)整數(shù)與現(xiàn)金流量的謬誤  First a short quiz: below are abbreviated 1986

2、 statements of earnings for two companies. Which business is the more valuable?首先先來(lái)個(gè)小考：以下是兩家公司的財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表，請(qǐng)問(wèn)哪一家比較值錢(qián)? 圖1： As you've probably guessed, Companies O and N are the same business - Scott Fetzer. In the "O" (for "old") column we have shown what the company's

3、1986 GAAP earnings would have been if we had not purchased it; in the "N" (for "new") column we have shown Scott Fetzer's GAAP earnings as actually reported by Berkshire. 大家或許都已經(jīng)猜到了，公司O跟公司N指的都是同一家公司-史考特-飛茲，O公司(指舊公司)系假設(shè)它1986年沒(méi)有被Berkshire買(mǎi)下時(shí)依照一般公認(rèn)會(huì)計(jì)原則編制的盈余報(bào)表，至于N公司(指新公司)則是指

4、1986年它被Berkshire買(mǎi)下后，依照一般公認(rèn)會(huì)計(jì)原則在Berkshire報(bào)表上顯示的相關(guān)數(shù)字。 It should be emphasized that the two columns depict identical economics - i.e., the same sales, wages, taxes, etc. And both "companies" generate the same amount of cash for owners. Only the accounting is different.必須強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，這兩家公司數(shù)字所敘述的是

5、同一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)事實(shí)，也就是營(yíng)收、薪資、稅負(fù)都相同，而兩家公司貢獻(xiàn)給股東的現(xiàn)金流入也完全相同，唯一不同的就只有適用的會(huì)計(jì)原則。 So, fellow philosophers, which column presents truth? Upon which set of numbers should managers and investors focus?所以說(shuō)，各位偉大的思想家，到底哪一家呈現(xiàn)的才是事實(shí)? 投資人與經(jīng)理人到底應(yīng)該關(guān)心哪一份報(bào)表?Before we tackle those questions, let's look at what produces t

6、he disparity between O and N. We will simplify our discussion in some respects, but the simplification should not produce any inaccuracies in analysis or conclusions.在處理這些問(wèn)題以前，讓我們先看看到底這兩家公司有哪一些差異之處，我們會(huì)試著將討論予以簡(jiǎn)化，當(dāng)然這不致產(chǎn)生錯(cuò)誤的分析與結(jié)論。The contrast between O and N comes about because we paid an amount for Sc

7、ott Fetzer that was different from its stated net worth. Under GAAP, such differences - such premiums or discounts - must be accounted for by "purchase-price adjustments." In Scott Fetzer's case, we paid $315 million for net assets that were carried on its books at $172.4 million. So w

8、e paid a premium of $142.6 million.新公司(N)與舊公司(O)差異的起因源自于我們購(gòu)買(mǎi)史考特-飛茲的價(jià)錢(qián)與其會(huì)計(jì)帳面凈值有所不同，根據(jù)一般公認(rèn)會(huì)計(jì)原則，這樣的差異-不論時(shí)溢價(jià)或是折價(jià)，都必須計(jì)入購(gòu)買(mǎi)法差異調(diào)整項(xiàng)下，就本例而言，我們支付了3.15億美元買(mǎi)下帳面價(jià)值1.724億美元的資產(chǎn)，中間就產(chǎn)生了1.426億美元的溢價(jià)。 The first step in accounting for any premium paid is to adjust the carrying value of current assets to current value

9、s. In practice, this requirement usually does not affect receivables, which are routinely carried at current value, but often affects inventories. Because of a $22.9 million LIFO reserve and other accounting intricacies, Scott Fetzer's inventory account was carried at a $37.3 million discount fr

10、om current value. So, making our first accounting move, we used $37.3 million of our $142.6 million premium to increase the carrying value of the inventory.會(huì)計(jì)原則規(guī)定處理購(gòu)并溢價(jià)的第一步是將流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)的帳列價(jià)值調(diào)整至目前的價(jià)值，實(shí)務(wù)上，通常受影響的是存貨等資產(chǎn)，至于具立即變現(xiàn)性的應(yīng)收帳款則不受影響，由于史考特-飛茲的存貨計(jì)價(jià)方式采后進(jìn)先出法，使得其帳列的存貨成本低于市價(jià)3,730萬(wàn)美元，所以第一個(gè)動(dòng)作就是將1.426億美元溢價(jià)中的3,730

11、萬(wàn)美元用來(lái)調(diào)整存貨價(jià)值。 Assuming any premium is left after current assets are adjusted, the next step is to adjust fixed assets to current value. In our case, this adjustment also required a few accounting acrobatics relating to deferred taxes. Since this has been billed as a simplified discussion, I will

12、 skip the details and give you the bottom line: $68.0 million was added to fixed assets and $13.0 million was eliminated from deferred tax liabilities. After making this $81.0 million adjustment, we were left with $24.3 million of premium to allocate. 在流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)調(diào)整完之后，第二步就是調(diào)整固定資產(chǎn)至現(xiàn)在的價(jià)值，再次地，我們必須運(yùn)用一些會(huì)計(jì)

13、技巧來(lái)處理相關(guān)的遞延所得稅，由于之前我們強(qiáng)調(diào)是簡(jiǎn)單的討論，所以我決定略去部份細(xì)節(jié)，直接公布結(jié)果，其中6,800萬(wàn)加到固定資產(chǎn)，至于另外的1,300萬(wàn)則從遞延所得稅負(fù)債扣除，最后剩下2,430萬(wàn)美元的溢價(jià)待處理。 Had our situation called for them two steps would next have been required: the adjustment of intangible assets other than Goodwill to current fair values, and the restatement of liabilities

14、 to current fair values, a requirement that typically affects only long-term debt and unfunded n liabilities. In Scott Fetzer's case, however, neither of these steps was necessary.如果有必要，接下來(lái)還有兩個(gè)步驟要進(jìn)行：一是調(diào)整無(wú)形資產(chǎn)(商譽(yù)除外)，一是調(diào)整負(fù)債，通常包含長(zhǎng)期負(fù)債以及未提撥煺休金負(fù)債，然而就本例而言，這些步驟都不需要。 The final accounting adjustment w

15、e needed to make, after recording fair market values for all assets and liabilities, was the assignment of the residual premium to Goodwill (technically known as "excess of cost over the fair value of net assets acquired"). This residual amounted to $24.3 million. Thus, the balance sheet o

16、f Scott Fetzer immediately before the acquisition, which is summarized below in column O, was transformed by the purchase into the balance sheet shown in column N. In real terms, both balance sheets depict the same assets and liabilities - but, as you can see, certain figures differ significantly.最后

17、我們必須進(jìn)行的會(huì)計(jì)動(dòng)作，就是將剩余的溢價(jià)部份歸類(lèi)到商譽(yù)這個(gè)科目(專(zhuān)業(yè)的解釋是取得成本超越資產(chǎn)公平價(jià)值部份)，金額為2,430萬(wàn)美元，就這樣舊公司也就是史考特-飛茲在被購(gòu)并的前一刻的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，被改成新公司在Berkshire帳上所列的各項(xiàng)數(shù)字，現(xiàn)實(shí)的狀況是，兩者都是用來(lái)說(shuō)明同一家公司所擁有的資產(chǎn)與負(fù)債，但大家可以清楚地發(fā)現(xiàn)，兩者在某些科目卻有極大的不同。 圖2： The higher balance sheet figures shown in column N produce the lower income figures shown in column N of th

18、e earnings statement presented earlier. This is the result of the asset write-ups and of the fact that some of the written-up assets must be depreciated or amortized. The higher the asset figure, the higher the annual depreciation or amortization charge to earnings must be. The charges that flowed t

19、o the earnings statement because of the balance sheet write-ups were numbered in the statement of earnings shown earlier:新公司的盈余數(shù)字比舊公司的來(lái)得低，這是由于其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中的某些資產(chǎn)必須沖銷(xiāo)或是按期折舊攤銷(xiāo)所致，帳列資產(chǎn)金額越高，每年必須提列的折舊與攤銷(xiāo)也就越高，就本例而言，可能影響損益的數(shù)字包括： $4,979,000 for non-cash inventory costs resulting, primarily, from reductions tha

20、t Scott Fetzer made in its inventories during 1986; charges of this kind are apt to be small or non-existent in future years.1、以1986年史考特飛茲為主的497.9萬(wàn)美元存貨跌價(jià)損失，這類(lèi)的成本在往后年度金額將會(huì)慢慢變小。 $5,054,000 for extra depreciation attributable to the write-up of fixed assets; a charge approximating this amount will

21、 probably be made annually for 12 more years.2、額外的505.4萬(wàn)美元固定資產(chǎn)折舊成本，往后12年的金額與此數(shù)目相當(dāng)。 $595,000 for amortization of Goodwill; this charge will be made annually for 39 more years in a slightly larger amount because our purchase was made on January 6 and, therefore, the 1986 figure applies to only 98

22、% of the year.3、59.5萬(wàn)的商譽(yù)攤銷(xiāo)，這筆費(fèi)用還要持續(xù)39年以上，以后年度的數(shù)字會(huì)略高，因?yàn)橛捎谫?gòu)并是在1月6日發(fā)生，所以1986年只反應(yīng)了98%的數(shù)字。 $998,000 for deferred-tax acrobatics that are beyond my ability to explain briefly (or perhaps even non-briefly); a charge approximating this amount will probably be made annually for 12 more years.4、99.8萬(wàn)的遞延所

23、得稅攤銷(xiāo)，由于這部份相當(dāng)復(fù)雜，所以我無(wú)法在短期間內(nèi)向各位說(shuō)明清楚，這筆金額還會(huì)持續(xù)12年以上。 It is important to understand that none of these newly-created accounting costs, totaling $11.6 million, are deductible for income tax purposes. The "new" Scott Fetzer pays exactly the same tax as the "old" Scott Fetzer would h

24、ave, even though the GAAP earnings of the two entities differ greatly. And, in respect to operating earnings, that would be true in the future also. However, in the unlikely event that Scott Fetzer sells one of its businesses, the tax consequences to the "old" and "new" company m

25、ight differ widely.有一點(diǎn)很重要，那就是這些新增的會(huì)計(jì)攤銷(xiāo)成本，金額約1,160萬(wàn)美元是無(wú)法扣抵所得稅的，所以新公司支付的所得稅與舊公司并無(wú)二致，雖然依照一般公認(rèn)會(huì)計(jì)原則所顯示的數(shù)字完全不同，而且往后年度的損益報(bào)表也有相同的情況，當(dāng)然萬(wàn)一史考特飛茲出售部份的事業(yè)時(shí)，兩者的稅負(fù)影響就會(huì)有所不同。 By the end of 1986 the difference between the net worth of the "old" and "new" Scott Fetzer had been reduced from $142

26、.6 million to $131.0 million by means of the extra $11.6 million that was charged to earnings of the new entity. As the years go by, similar charges to earnings will cause most of the premium to disappear, and the two balance sheets will converge. However, the higher land values and most of the high

27、er inventory values that were established on the new balance sheet will remain unless land is disposed of or inventory levels are further reduced.1986年底兩家公司凈值上的不同，在扣除1,160萬(wàn)美元的已攤銷(xiāo)成本后，將由塬先的1.426億美元減為1.31億美元，隨著時(shí)間過(guò)去，相似的攤銷(xiāo)將使得彼此的差異逐漸縮小，然而土地或存貨的重估必須等到這些資產(chǎn)出售后才會(huì)消失。 * * *What does all this mean for owner

28、s? Did the shareholders of Berkshire buy a business that earned $40.2 million in 1986 or did they buy one earning $28.6 million? Were those $11.6 million of new charges a real economic cost to us? Should investors pay more for the stock of Company O than of Company N? And, if a business is worth som

29、e given multiple of earnings, was Scott Fetzer worth considerably more the day before we bought it than it was worth the following day? 對(duì)于股東來(lái)說(shuō)，到底有何差別? Berkshire的股東們?cè)?986年買(mǎi)到的，到底是一家年獲利4,020萬(wàn)或是2,860萬(wàn)美元的公司呢? 這筆1,160萬(wàn)美元的新增成本對(duì)我們到底有沒(méi)有實(shí)質(zhì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響呢? 投資人是否應(yīng)該付出更多的代價(jià)來(lái)買(mǎi)舊公司呢? 而又若是企業(yè)評(píng)價(jià)按本益比的角度來(lái)衡量的話，

30、史考特飛茲在被我們買(mǎi)下之前是否是比較值錢(qián)呢? If we think through these questions, we can gain some insights about what may be called "owner earnings." These represent (a) reported earnings plus (b) depreciation, depletion, amortization, and certain other non-cash charges such as Company N's items (1) a

31、nd (4) less ( c) the average annual amount of capitalized expenditures for plant and equipment, etc. that the business requires to fully maintain its long-term competitive position and its unit volume. (If the business requires additional working capital to maintain its competitive position and unit

32、 volume, the increment also should be included in ( c) . However, businesses following the LIFO inventory method usually do not require additional working capital if unit volume does not change.)如果我們能夠想通這些問(wèn)題，那么我們就能體會(huì)所謂的所有者的盈余，它代表(a) 帳列盈余，加計(jì)(b)折舊、攤銷(xiāo)與其它成本，如新公司(1)到(4)項(xiàng)，扣除(c)年度平均的資本支出等以維持公司長(zhǎng)期競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。(如

33、果企業(yè)需要額外的營(yíng)運(yùn)資金來(lái)維持既有的產(chǎn)能與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，那么這部份的增加也必須納入(c)項(xiàng)，然而存貨計(jì)價(jià)方式采用后進(jìn)先出法的公司就比較沒(méi)有這方面的問(wèn)題)。 Our owner-earnings equation does not yield the deceptively precise figures provided by GAAP, since( c) must be a guess - and one sometimes very difficult to make. Despite this problem, we consider the owner earnings figu

34、re, not the GAAP figure, to be the relevant item for valuation purposes - both for investors in buying stocks and for managers in buying entire businesses. We agree with Keynes's observation: "I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong."我們的所有者盈余公式與按照一般公認(rèn)會(huì)計(jì)原則編制的數(shù)字并不會(huì)完全相同，因?yàn)?c)

35、 項(xiàng)本身是個(gè)估計(jì)數(shù)，且有時(shí)還很難精確的估算，基于此，我們認(rèn)為所有者盈余在我們進(jìn)行購(gòu)并或買(mǎi)進(jìn)公司股票，而須評(píng)估企業(yè)價(jià)值時(shí)，較有意義，我們相當(dāng)同意凱因斯的看法：我寧愿大致正確也不要完全錯(cuò)誤。 The approach we have outlined produces "owner earnings" for Company O and Company N that are identical, which means valuations are also identical, just as common sense would tell you sho

36、uld be the case. This result is reached because the sum of (a) and (b) is the same in both columns O and N, and because( c) is necessarily the same in both cases.用我們的方式評(píng)估新公司與舊公司所得的所有者盈余完全相同，這代表兩者的評(píng)估價(jià)值也一樣，事實(shí)上，按照一般的認(rèn)知本該就如此，結(jié)果會(huì)相同是由于兩家公司(a)(b) 兩項(xiàng)的合計(jì)數(shù)一樣，至于(c)本來(lái)就都一樣。 And what do Charlie and I, a

37、s owners and managers, believe is the correct figure for the owner earnings of Scott Fetzer? Under current circumstances, we believe ( c) is very close to the "old" company's (b) number of $8.3 million and much below the "new" company's (b) number of $19.9 million. Theref

38、ore, we believe that owner earnings are far better depicted by the reported earnings in the O column than by those in the N column. In other words, we feel owner earnings of Scott Fetzer are considerably larger than the GAAP figures that we report.那么查理跟我身公司公司的所有人與經(jīng)營(yíng)者，到底哪一個(gè)數(shù)字才真正屬于史考特飛茲呢? 在目前的情況下

39、，我們認(rèn)為(c)項(xiàng)的數(shù)字相當(dāng)接近舊公司(b)830萬(wàn)美元，但遠(yuǎn)低于新公司(b)項(xiàng)1,990萬(wàn)美元，因此我們認(rèn)為舊公司財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表上的數(shù)字比較接近所有者的盈余，換句話說(shuō)，我們覺(jué)得史考特飛茲的所有者盈余遠(yuǎn)大于一般公認(rèn)會(huì)計(jì)原則編制的數(shù)字。 That is obviously a happy state of affairs. But calculations of this sort usually do not provide such pleasant news. Most managers probably will acknowledge that they need to spend

40、 something more than (b) on their businesses over the longer term just to hold their ground in terms of both unit volume and competitive position. When this imperative exists - that is, when ( c) exceeds (b) - GAAP earnings overstate owner earnings. Frequently this overstatement is substantial. The

41、oil industry has in recent years provided a conspicuous example of this phenomenon. Had most major oil companies spent only (b) each year, they would have guaranteed their shrinkage in real terms.這顯然是一個(gè)比較快樂(lè)的結(jié)果，但計(jì)算這種東西通常沒(méi)有那么讓人感到樂(lè)觀，大部分的經(jīng)理人通常會(huì)認(rèn)為應(yīng)該花費(fèi)比(b)項(xiàng)更多的資金以維持既有的產(chǎn)能與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，當(dāng)這種觀念存在時(shí)，也就是當(dāng)(c)項(xiàng)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)(b)項(xiàng)時(shí)，那么也代表

42、一般公認(rèn)會(huì)計(jì)原則過(guò)分高估了所有者的盈余，而且通常這個(gè)數(shù)字會(huì)非常驚人，近年來(lái)的石油產(chǎn)業(yè)就為這種現(xiàn)象提供了最明顯的例證，要是這些石油公司每年只投入(b)的資金的話，那么它們的實(shí)際的產(chǎn)能將大幅地縮水。 All of this points up the absurdity of the "cash flow" numbers that are often set forth in Wall Street reports. These numbers routinely include (a) plus (b) - but do not subtract ( c) . M

43、ost sales brochures of investment bankers also feature deceptive presentations of this kind. These imply that the business being offered is the commercial counterpart of the Pyramids - forever state-of-the-art, never needing to be replaced, improved or refurbished. Indeed, if all U.S. corporations w

44、ere to be offered simultaneously for sale through our leading investment bankers - and if the sales brochures describing them were to be believed - governmental projections of national plant and equipment spending would have to be slashed by 90%.以上這些論點(diǎn)充分解釋華爾街經(jīng)營(yíng)運(yùn)用現(xiàn)金流量數(shù)字的荒謬性，這些數(shù)字通常只包含(a)加(b)但卻未扣除(c)，大

45、部分投資銀行所提供的介紹手冊(cè)也使用類(lèi)似的欺騙手法，這等于是在暗示，所介紹的企業(yè)就像是商業(yè)世界里的萬(wàn)年金字塔，永遠(yuǎn)歷久彌新、不會(huì)被取代、不用維修或更新，事實(shí)上，如果全美的企業(yè)真如這些投資銀行所形容的，那么政府每年編制的全美工廠及設(shè)備采購(gòu)指數(shù)將大幅下滑90%以上。 "Cash Flow", true, may serve as a shorthand of some utility in descriptions of certain real estate businesses or other enterprises that make huge initial

46、outlays and only tiny outlays thereafter. A company whose only holding is a bridge or an extremely long-lived gas field would be an example. But "cash flow" is meaningless in such businesses as manufacturing, retailing, extractive companies, and utilities because, for them, ( c) is always

47、significant. To be sure, businesses of this kind may in a given year be able to defer capital spending. But over a five- or ten-year period, they must make the investment - or the business decays.現(xiàn)金流量的觀念，確實(shí)可以作為某些比如說(shuō)不動(dòng)產(chǎn)或是初期需要投入大量資本支出而后僅需負(fù)擔(dān)少量維修的產(chǎn)業(yè)之上，具體的例子包含橋梁興建或是某些蘊(yùn)藏豐富的天然氣油田等，但另一方面，現(xiàn)金流量卻不能適用于某些零售、制造、采

48、礦及公用事業(yè)之上，因?yàn)槠浔仨毘掷m(xù)投入的(c)項(xiàng)金額相當(dāng)巨大，確實(shí)這些產(chǎn)業(yè)有時(shí)可以稍微忍住一兩年不做重大的投資，但就五到十年長(zhǎng)期間來(lái)看，它們就不得不這樣做，否則企業(yè)的根基就會(huì)被侵蝕。 Why, then, are "cash flow" numbers so popular today? In answer, we confess our cynicism: we believe these numbers are frequently used by marketers of businesses and securities in attempts to jus

49、tify the unjustifiable (and thereby to sell what should be the unsalable). When (a) - that is, GAAP earnings - looks by itself inadequate to service debt of a junk bond or justify a foolish stock price, how convenient it becomes for salesmen to focus on (a) + (b). But you shouldn't add (b) witho

50、ut subtracting ( c) : though dentists correctly claim that if you ignore your teeth they'll go away, the same is not true for ( c) . The company or investor believing that the debt-servicing ability or the equity valuation of an enterprise can be measured by totaling (a) and (b) while ignoring (

51、 c) is headed for certain trouble.那么為什么現(xiàn)在現(xiàn)金流量會(huì)變得如此流行呢? 在回答前，我們必須承認(rèn)我們存在某些偏見(jiàn)，我們認(rèn)為這些數(shù)字通常都是那些專(zhuān)門(mén)推銷(xiāo)股票及公司的人，企圖要將一些爛公司粉飾包裝出售所用的手法，當(dāng)(a)項(xiàng)也就是一般公認(rèn)會(huì)計(jì)原則的盈余看起來(lái)不足以支應(yīng)往后的債務(wù)所需或是過(guò)高的股票價(jià)格時(shí)，這些業(yè)務(wù)員自然就會(huì)將主意擺在(a)+(b)這個(gè)比較好看的數(shù)字上頭，但如果你硬要加上(b)的話，就必須要扣除(c)，雖然有些牙醫(yī)會(huì)告訴你，如果你能忘記牙痛的痛楚，那么它們就等于不存在，如果投資人或企業(yè)買(mǎi)家在考慮償債能力或股票價(jià)值，只注意(a)+(b)，卻忽略了(c)時(shí)，將來(lái)肯定會(huì)遇上大麻煩。 * * *To sum up: in the case of both Scott Fetzer and our other businesses, we feel that (b) on an historical-cost basis - i.e., with both amortization of intangibles and other purchase-price adjustments excluded - is quite close in amount to ( c) .